Public Policy Polling Media Alert: Ayotte up 15, Lynch 9 in NH races

PPP's final New Hampshire poll finds there's a better chance of Republicans winning the race for Governor than there is of Democrats winning the race for US Senate. That says a lot about the massive shift in the political climate we've seen over the course of 2010. Kelly Ayotte leads Paul Hodes 56-41 in the Senate contest while John Lynch has a more modest 53-44 advantage over John Stephen in his quest for reelection as Governor.

Ayotte has rebounded strongly from a turbulent primary season that saw her favorability numbers decline precipitously. 57% of voters have a favorable opinion of her to only 34% with a negative one. That +23 net favorability represents a 35 point improvement from early September, right before the primary, when her standing was at -12 with 47% of voters seeing her negatively to only 35% with a positive opinion.

What's interesting about the improvement in Ayotte's numbers since then is that it has come across the board politically. It's no surprise that her favorability with folks of her own party has improved from 58% to 87%- that kind of thing is to be expected when everyone gets unified after a primary. But Ayotte has also seen a large increase in her favor from independents (34% to 54%) and even with Democrats (from 11% to 21%). She had to move to the right and embrace Sarah Palin to win the primary and those things really hurt her numbers over the summer but her current standing indicates none of that caused long term political damage.

Hodes meanwhile never emerged as a strong candidate. 50% of voters see him unfavorably to only 34% who rate him in a positive light. Independents don't like him and the number of Democrats who dislike him is greater than the number of Republicans who do like him.

Even if Hodes had proven to be a great candidate it would have been pretty tough for him given how far Barack Obama's popularity in the state has fallen. Only 39% of voters think the President is doing a good job to 55% who disapprove of him. That level of overall animosity toward Democrats in Washington would have made it difficult for any candidate of the party to pick up this Senate seat.

Meanwhile in the Governor's race it appears John Lynch will get reelected, but not by nearly the kind of gaudy margin he has become accustomed to. For instance he's winning independents 56-40, an unusual feat for a Democrat this year. But that's nothing compared to the 79-19 advantage exit polls showed for him with them in 2008. And the 22% of Republicans he's winning is an unusual amount of crossover support for any candidate this year, but it's less than the 31% of them he got the last time around. Nevertheless barring a major shift in the final few days of the campaign he should survive for another term.

This analysis is also available on our blog:

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/10/split-decision-in-nh.html

A press release and full crosstabs are attached-

NH Libertarians Remember Which Side of the Bread the Icky Wax Goes

NH's General Election, scheduled for next Tuesday, November 2, may help determine the political direction of NH, at a minimum, for the next 2 years. I would that you work towards the Libertarian direction, as follows:

As a Libertarian, there is a barrier to overcome, that the Democrats/Republicans wrote into law,in 1897, modified in 2004, that sets a barrier in place. RSA 652:11 defines a Political Party, as now, one which its either, Governor or US Senate candidate exceed, 4% of the gross vote, for either office.

In that the UNH Survey Center, in a Congressional candidate survey done approx. 10 days ago, I, as the Libertarian for US House, 2nd, received 3% of the total, from a poll of 400 people. This, with no advertising on the ground (then). I have 100 signs out now. The inference, is that either of the Governor ( John Babiarz) or US Senate ( Ken Blevens) candidates will pull better than what I pulled as a Congress, 2nd candidate did. Sample ballots are available now, at Town/City Hall, for viewing.

I must note, that the ballot is more complicated than the paragraphs above infer. In at least 3 elective districts, the winner will be chosen by a Plurality vote:

Governor: John Babiarz-Libertarian
John Lynch-Democrat
John Stephen-Republican

US Senate: Ken Blevens-Libertarian
Chris Booth-independent
Paul Hodes-Democrat
Kelly Ayotte-Republican

US House, 1st: Frank Guinta-Republican
Carol Shea-Porter-Democrat
Philip Hodsen-Libertarian

US House, 2nd: Howard L.Wilson-Libertarian
Tim vanBlommesteyn-independent
Charles Bass- retread Republican
Ann Kuster-Democrat

The plurality wins, will be at Governor, US Senate, and US House, 2nd. I discount Mr.Hodsen, as he has done nothing to promote himself. The only vote he will receive, with be the protest vote, None of the Above, is Acceptable. And note one other condition applies: None of the petition access candidates, has faced off, against his/her opposite number of the ONE Party ( Democrat/Republican). Even though the TEA Party, coupled with calls for a 3rd party, exists, strength follows from vote totals.

And the "lesser" of 2 evils need not win, November 2. You have the option of voting for someone who is not evil, not conflicted with bringing the sad conditions of the current economic conditions, today.

For Liberty,
Howard L.Wilson



NRSC - BREAKING: Firm Linked to Hodes Pays NH Fine for Push Polling

http://politicalscoop.wmur.com/firm-linked-to-hodes-pays-nh-fine-for-push-polling

Firm linked to Hodes pays NH fine for push polling

WMUR Political Scoop

By James Pindell

October 15, 2010, 2:25 PM

An out of state firm which may have conducted polling for Democrat U.S. Senate candidate Paul Hodes’s campaign has agreed to pay $20,000 to New Hampshire in a settlement agreement over allegations they were involved in push polling.

The Attorney General’s office announced the settlement this afternoon that Mountain West Research Center of Pocatello, Idaho had agreed to pay a fine and cooperated with the investigation after those polled complained that the pollster didn’t disclose who was paying for the poll even though they were saying negative things about Republican Senate candidate Kelly Ayotte. After questions were raised the poll stopped.

When a reporter asked Mountain West who they were polling for they said Anzalone Liszt Research. Anzalone Liszt Research, at the time, listed Hodes as a client. The Hodes campaign didn’t deny that it was their poll and said they wouldn’t discuss it.

Illegal Campaign Sign Placement and Law Enforcement Candidates

We've come to expect candidates to place signs illegally on public right of ways, but check out the interstate entrance near the Amoskeag Bridge in Manchester.  Not just one or two, but a whole row of illegally placed signs are out there, not just from your average candidate, but from Bob Walsh who as Hillsborough County Attorney, the chief law enforcement officer in the county, one would think would know better.  Maybe someone should file a complaint with the AG about the county's top law enforcement officer.

Posted BY Bob DeMaura NHInsider Owner/Operator

Received via E-Mail, name of sender withheld by NHInsider

Public Policy Polling Media Alert: Lynch leads 51-39 in NH Governor's Race

John Lynch is certainly going to face his toughest contest for reelection since first being elected Governor in New Hampshire, but he still starts out the general election with a solid 51-39 lead over Republican challenger John Stephen.

Lynch was dominant in his 2006 and 2008 wins, receiving large amounts of Republican support and crushing his opponents with independents. Neither of those things will happen this year. Stephen has the GOP base pretty much locked up, 74-13. And Lynch's edge with independents has been reduced to 46-41. Still Lynch wins Democrats 93-4, a larger degree of party unification than we've seen for any candidate in the country this year, and that's more than enough to fuel a double digit lead.

Lynch has a 51% approval rating, making him one of a very small group of Governors and Senators PPP has polled this year who have retained majority support from their constituents. A plurality of voters at 39% still don't know enough about Stephen to have formed an opinion. Among those who have views are pretty evenly divided with 31% seeing him favorably and 30% unfavorably.

In a political year that has produced one surprise after another after another it would be a mistake to completely write off the possibility of an upset. But Lynch's popularity is holding up much better than that of most politicians and if that continues to be true for another 7 weeks he should make it through.

This analysis is also available on our blog:

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/09/lynch-leads-by-12.html