Public Policy Polling Media Alert: Romney still up big in New Hampshire, Paul and Huntsman close for 2nd

Mitt Romney continues to be headed for a comfortable win in New Hampshire.  PPP's final poll there finds him with 35% to 18% for Ron Paul, 16% for Jon Huntsman, 12% for Newt Gingrich, 11% for Rick Santorum, 3% for Buddy Roemer, and 1% for Rick Perry.

Romney's support has been remarkably consistent over the course of PPP's three Granite State tracking polls, never straying from 35-36%. He's the most popular of the candidates in the state, with a 60/34 favorability rating. And he also has the most committed supporters...85% of them say they're definitely going to vote for him and when you look at the race just among those whose minds are completely made up his lead over Paul expands to 40-19.

The excitement in New Hampshire on Tuesday night will probably be the battle for second place.  There Huntsman has the momentum. His support is up from 12% to 16%, while Paul's has declined from 21% to 18% over the last week and a half. Huntsman's favorability (55/30) is far better than Paul's (43/51) and 13% of voters list Huntsman as their 2nd choice compared to only 5% for Paul. 

All of these same arguments for Huntsman potentially overtaking Paul could have been applied to Santorum overtaking Paul on our Iowa poll last weekend and of course that's what did happen when it was finally time to count the votes.

Even if Huntsman does pull the second place finish though it's hard to see that translating into much success further down the line.  Among actual Republican voters Huntsman finds himself in 5th place at just 11%. But 40% or more of the electorate on Tuesday will be non-Republican and Huntsman's greatest strength is with Obama voters, among whom he gets 35% to 25% for Paul and 19% for Romney. The problem for him is there won't likely be another primary where 25% of the voters chose Obama in 2008.

Beyond the battle for second it looks like the only other intrigue on Tuesday night will be who finishes fourth, which is presently close between Gingrich and Santorum. Gingrich has stopped the bleeding in New Hampshire over the last week and a half, dropping only from 13% to 12%. Santorum though is actually the biggest gainer relative to a week ago, up 8 points from his previous 3% standing.

If you think momentum is a major factor Huntsman probably bests Paul for 2nd and Santorum probably beats out Gingrich for 4th.

This analysis is also available on our website:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/01/romney-holding-steady-in-nh.html

I didn’t attach the full results because the file is so large but you can see those here:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NH_108.pdf

Statement for Team NH - Bachmann for President

Bachmann’s New Hampshire Campaign Departs

The Team cites lack of support and poor communication as reasons for leaving  

Team-NH of the Bachmann Campaign has decided to disband. This decision comes after much soul-searching by each individual and after countless hours of discussion as a team. Although the team members regret our departure from the campaign, we know there was very little choice.

Please refer to the attached document for full-details.

WMUR Pindell reports Bachmann's NH Staff Resigns

WMUR's James Pindell reports that Michelle Bachmann's NH staff has resigned.

If you are a WMUR Subscriber you can get the full story.

NH Rep Bettencourt statement from First in the Nation Primary press conference.

The following is the text of a statement by House Majority Leader D.J. Bettencourt given today at a Concord press conference where Republican leaders spoke in support of to efforts to defend New Hampshire's First in the Nation Primary.  A link to a video of the press conference is also included.

 

“I appreciate and thank all of the candidates who have chosen to stand with New Hampshire in support of the First in the Nation primary.  It has become an important part  of our heritage.  For more than a half century New Hampshire citizens have played an important role in the process to elect our President. When citizens across this great country think of New Hampshire they think of many things.  They do doubt think of the Old Man of the Mountains and the First in the National Primary. 

Unfortunately we lost one of them to Mother Nature a few years ago....but we intend to fight to hold on to the other.  Candidates appreciate the fact that tar-mac politics just don't exist in New Hampshire.  Our citizens expect presidential candidates to look them square in the eye and be ready to answer the tough questions. 

I am sure you have all heard the story of the New Hampshire farmer who, when asked if he were supporting a certain candidate, paused for a moment and replied, 'I don't know, I haven't met him yet."  We have earned the right to be the first in the nation, we thank those candidates for President, both past and present, who have stood with us in our fight.  And we look forward to maintaining our first in the nation status for many years to come."

A link to a video of the press conference is also included: http://youtu.be/ftzgTGqeo5Y

Romney urges Nevada to move up Caucus, Romney Opening Nevada HQ Today?

Usual Suspects,

Just a couple weeks ago, Mitt Romney's campaign was outed for lobbying Nevada officials to move up their primary date, threatening New Hampshire's proud first-in-the-nation tradition.

Last week, Governor Huntsman led the charge by first boycotting the Nevada caucus while it threatens New Hampshire's primary and then boycotting tomorrow night's debate in Nevada. He will be holding a town hall in Hopkinton at 7:30 PM instead.

Now today at 3:30 PM, the Romney campaign is opening their Nevada headquarters. I guess they feel pretty confident with 89% of Granite Staters still undecided. 

Here's a quote from me, Huntsman campaign spokesman:

"After undermining the first-in-the-nation primary by lobbying for an early Nevada caucus, Governor Romney is sticking his finger in New Hampshire's eye today. Opening an office in Nevada the week after the majority of the field, led by Jon Huntsman, boycotted the Nevada caucus shows how little respect he has for the New Hampshire Primary."

Michael Levoff

Huntsman Supporter