Advertising

 

 


 

 

Blogger Alerts

Entries in Polls (23)

Wednesday
May222013

POLL: OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OPPOSED TO STATE HOUSE INVOLVEMENT IN MANUFACTURER/RETAILER CONTRACTS

New Hampshire Consumers Want Car Buying Reform, Not Dealer Protection

Washington, DC – Independent poll results released today by automakers show the overwhelming majority of New Hampshire residents are opposed to state legislature involvement in the private business relationships between auto manufacturers and retail car dealers. Seventy-one (71) percent of respondents say government should stay out of such private business matters, with only 11 percent supportive of legislative involvement.

“New Hampshire consumers are clearly opposed to the State House interceding in private business contracts between two willing parties, and 7 out of 10 respondents oppose any state legislative action that would block automakers from implementing much-needed reforms to improve the car buying process,” said Dan Gage, Director of Communications and Public Affairs for the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers. “Senate Bill 126 is an unfair favor for wealthy car dealers at the expense of everyone else. It will cost consumers more.”

Gage indicated that poll results demonstrate that New Hampshire consumers support automakers’ ongoing efforts to reform and improve the car buying process:

 70 percent currently do not look forward to the car buying process;

 66 percent want to be treated more like a VIP when buying a new vehicle;

 94 percent believe more transparent pricing that lists hidden dealer costs is either very important (84 percent) or somewhat important (10 percent);

 79 percent believe a consumer-friendly shopping experience is either very important (50 percent) or somewhat important (29 percent);

 76 percent believe an end to unnecessary pressure from car salesmen is either very important (47 percent) or somewhat important (29 percent);

 78 percent say a faster, easier process of selecting vehicle options is either very important (44 percent) or somewhat important (34 percent);

 68 percent say automakers should have a say in how their products are sold and represented to consumers; and

 69 percent oppose any state action intended to block manufacturer reforms.

“This polling shows that the overwhelming majority of New Hampshire consumers support ongoing manufacturer-led initiatives to make the car buying process simpler, more transparent, and more consumer-friendly,” said Gage. “Dealers argue that their legislation is pro-consumer, but nothing in their special favor bill would address a single important reform identified by consumers or lower their costs. It will instead do the opposite and preserve the status quo.”

According to the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA), car dealers in 2012 made the highest profits ever recorded in NADA’s history, rising 6% from previous record setting profits recorded in 2011 and proving dealers do not need special protections or favors from Concord.

“Lawmakers have a clear decision ahead – side with wealthy car dealers or side with New Hampshire consumers,” added Gage. “Quite simply, it’s a bill by dealers for dealers and no one else.”

The poll of 800 New Hampshire adults, with a +/-4 percentage points margin of sampling error, was conducted on May 8th by Pulse Opinion Research on behalf of the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers.

The Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, the leading advocacy group for the auto industry, represents 77% of all car and light truck sales in the United States, including the BMW Group, Chrysler Group LLC, Ford Motor Company, General Motors Corporation, Jaguar Land Rover, Mazda, Mercedes-Benz USA, Mitsubishi Motors, Porsche, Toyota, Volkswagen Group of America and Volvo Cars North America.

Saturday
Aug182012

Public Policy Polling Media Alert: Clinton, Christie tops in New Hampshire for 2016 

Since everyone's sick of the 2012 campaign we decided we would just skip ahead to 2016 on our New Hampshire poll last weekend.

Democrats in the state want Hillary Clinton as their nominee. 91% have a favorable opinion of her to only 6% with a negative one. Given a long list of potential 2016 candidates 55% say Clinton is their top choice to 9% for Joe Biden, 8% for Elizabeth Warren, 6% for Andrew Cuomo, 3% for Deval Patrick, 1% for Martin O'Malley, and less than 1% for Brian Schweitzer and Mark Warner.

Clinton has the ability to unify most groups within the Democratic electorate- she's at over 50% with men, women, whites, minorities, and voters describing themselves as 'very liberal,' 'somewhat liberal,' and 'moderate' alike. It seems like she would have a decent chance at clearing the field.

If Clinton doesn't run there's not much consensus among Democratic voters. If Biden ran he'd lead the way but with only 19% to 17% for Warren, 15% for Cuomo, 7% for Patrick, 3% for O'Malley and 1% each for Schweitzer and Warner with the largest mass of voters, 37%, undecided. And if Biden and Clinton both sat it out Cuomo would lead with 23% to 18% for Warren, 12% for Patrick, 2% each for Warner and O'Malley, and 1% for Schweitzer. 42% say they would be undecided in that instance.

The lack of support for Warner, Schweitzer, and O'Malley is largely a function of their name recognition. Only about 20% of voters are familiar with each of them. Clinton and Biden are known pretty universally, Warren and Patrick each have 68% name recognition from living next door, and Cuomo comes in at 56%.

The Republicans have a far better known field of potential candidates for 2016- if Mitt Romney doesn't win this fall. 8 out of 9 folks we tested have over 70% name recognition, compared to only 2 of the 8 Democrats we looked at. The only GOP potential who doesn't meet that threshold is Scott Walker.

Chris Christie is the top choice on the Republican side with 24% to 15% for Jeb Bush, 12% each for Mike Huckabee and Marco Rubio, 10% for Rand Paul, 7% each for Sarah Palin and Rick Santorum, and 3% for Walker.

74% of New Hampshire Republicans have a favorable opinion of Christie to only 11% with a negative one. Christie's greatest strength comes with moderates, non-Tea Party, and non-Evangelical Republicans- a formula that's not going to work for GOP candidates most places but might in New Hampshire. He also polls particularly well with independents, who are allowed to vote in the Granite State's primaries, men, and younger voters. You could argue to some extent that he's the candidate who appeals to all the groups the GOP needs to step it up with for the general election.

We did a similar poll in Iowa last month and it's interesting to see how the two compare. Christie and Bush are much stronger in New Hampshire than Iowa. Santorum and Huckabee are much stronger in Iowa than New Hampshire. Palin, Paul, Rubio, Ryan, and Walker do about the same in both states. Palin's poor performance is particularly noteworthy since she's the best known candidate both places. It just doesn't seem likely she'll ever be a serious Presidential candidate.

This poll was taken partially before and partially after the announcement of Paul Ryan as Mitt Romney's running mate so if we did it again he would probably poll a little bit higher. He already has good favorability numbers with GOP primary voters at 64/11.

Obviously a lot will happen between now and January 2016! Or December 2015 or November 2015 or however early it goes.

This analysis is also available on our website:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/08/clinton-christie-lead-in-new-hampshire.html

A press release and full crosstabs are attached-

Thursday
Aug162012

Public Policy Polling Media Alert: Toss up race for Governor of New Hampshire 

PPP's newest poll of New Hampshire's Governor's race finds a complete toss up regardless of who the Democratic and Republican nominees end up being. The candidates are within 3 points of each other in every possible match up.

Democrat Maggie Hassan holds modest leads over both of the potential Republican candidates- she's up 45-43 on Ovide Lamontagne and 42-39 on Kevin Smith. The other Democratic candidate, Jackie Cilley, ties Lamontagne at 42% and leads Smith 39-38. The relatively high level of undecideds in all these match ups reflects the anonymity of the candidates. Only Lamontagne is particularly well known, with 69% of voters having an opinion about him. Hassan comes in at 51%, Smith at 47%, and Cilley at 42%.

The Democrats are ahead mostly because they have the advantage with independents in all four match ups. Hassan leads by 6-7 points with them and Cilley has a 3 point lead against each Republican with them. That's making the difference overall, as none of the candidates have much crossover support- Democrats are voting Democratic and Republicans are voting Republican.

Lamontagne continues to be the clear favorite in the GOP primary, but the race has at least gotten a little bit tighter since our last poll in May. Lamontagne leads Smith 49-21. That 28 point lead is down from 40 points at 53-13 the previous time we looked at this contest. Lamontagne has a 56/14 favorability rating with Republican primary voters compared to only 30/17 for Smith. His greatest strength is with voters who describe themselves as 'very conservative,' with whom he leads 58-18.

Hassan has a small lead on the Democratic side, although a plurality of voters remain undecided. She's at 30% to 24% for Cilley with 46% not yet having a preference. Her favorability with primary voters is 42/19 to Cilley's 29/21. Cilley is up 31-22 with voters describing themselves as 'very liberal,' but Hassan has the overall lead thanks to her support from moderates and 'somewhat liberal' voters.

One thing that could help either of the Democratic candidates is John Lynch's support. 60% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 26% who disapprove. Those are the best numbers PPP has found for any Governor in the country this year.

Other notes from New Hampshire:

-Democrats lead the generic state legislative ballot 46-43, including a 41-36 advantage with independents.

-Kelly Ayotte has a 45% approval rating with 41% of voters disapproving of her. That's up from 43/43 on PPP's last poll of the state.

-Only 32% of voters say they would support a proposed constitutional amendment banning new taxes on personal income, with 43% opposed. Republicans only narrowly support the proposal, 42/32, while Democrats are pretty strongly against it, 22/56.

This analysis is also available on our website:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/08/up-for-grabs-in-new-hampshire.html

A press release and full crosstabs are attached-

Wednesday
Aug152012

PPP - Obama leads by 6 in New Hampshire, down from 12 in May poll

PPP's newest New Hampshire poll finds Barack Obama in the lead by a 51-45 margin. Although that's a relatively strong standing it's down from his 53-41 advantage on PPP's last poll of the state, in early May, and also from 2008 when he won the state by a 54-45 spread.

The tightening compared to our last poll of the state is largely a function of the Republican base unifying around Mitt Romney. In May he had only an 82-13 advantage with GOP voters, and that's now improved to 88-8. Two important trends remain the same from the previous poll though. Obama is up 52-40 with independents, similar both to 50-39 on our last New Hampshire survey and to his lead on the Ohio poll we released this morning. And Democrats also remain more unified than Republicans, with Obama getting 90% of his party vote to 7% for Romney.

This poll was done partially before and partially after the announcement of Paul Ryan as Romney's running mate. New Hampshire voters are split in their feelings about Ryan with 36% rating him favorably, 37% unfavorable, and 27% not stating an opinion either way. Republicans (67/7) predictably love Ryan, Democrats (10/64) dislike him almost as much, and independents split against him by a 33/39 margin. The trouble with independents isn't unique to Ryan in New Hampshire. Romney's favorability with them is 39/54. The Republican ticket has some work to do with those voters.

New Hampshire voters just narrowly approve of Obama, 49/48. That's down from a 52/45 spread in May. But he's at least in better shape than Romney, who only 45% of voters have a favorable opinion of to 50% with a negative one.

We also looked at Senator Jeanne Shaheen's standing with voters in the state on this poll. She has pretty solid approval numbers with 50% of voters giving her good marks to 40% who are unhappy with the job she's doing. She leads a hypothetical Republican opponent 51-42, including a 51-37 lead with independents. Obviously Shaheen's fate will have a lot to do with the political climate in 2014 but if she was up this year she would be in pretty good shape.

New Hampshire's like a lot of the states Obama won by 10-12 points in 2008- Pennsylvania, Nevada, Iowa, and Colorado also come to mind- he's not winning them by as much as he did last time around. But all in all he's in pretty good shape.

This analysis is also available on our website:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/08/obama-up-6-in-new-hampshire.html

A press release and full crosstabs are attached-

Tuesday
May012012

NH House Leaders Statement on Nearly Three Quarters of Granite Staters Supporting Right to Work Law

CONCORD – House Majority Leader D.J. Bettencourt (R-Salem) and House Division II Finance Chair and right to work sponsor, Will Smith (R-New Castle) today commented on the WMUR Granite State survey put out by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.  According to the survey, Most New Hampshire adults, 71% favor such a law, 12% oppose it, and 17% are neutral or have no opinion. Majorities of all demographic groups, including Democrats (69%), liberals (66%), and even union households (60%), favor this law. 

House Majority Leader D.J. Bettencourt

“The majority of Granite Staters know that as long as we continue the practice of forced unionism in New Hampshire, we’re going to lose out on many of the job opportunities that could keep them here. Passing Right to Work will give a major boost to our state’s future income and private-sector job growth.”

House Right to Work Sponsor, Will Smith

“It is unfortunate that Governor Lynch continues to be out of touch with the Granite State residents through his continued diligence in standing with union bosses against worker freedom in New Hampshire. We hope this is a wake-up call to Democrat gubernatorial candidate Maggie Hassan as well and that she will choose to stand with the 71% majority of Granite Staters—including members of her own party and even union households—who favor right to work and not the union bosses. We hope this rallies support in the Senate to take this important legislation off the table so we can continue to work toward making New Hampshire the first right to work state in New England. Watching opportunities for good, new jobs and economic growth pass us by is against our state’s traditions and weakens the New Hampshire Advantage.  We need to get the Granite State back in the game of being competitive and helping our citizens.”