Gambling Revenue Estimates Seriously Flawed!

Honorable Steve Vaillancourt has put forth his revenue estimates for gambling in NH but I think the numbers may be seriously flawed. Was this on purpose or an oversight I don’t really know that, I do know that I entered the following information and questions for Steve as a comment to his blog post and it disappeared, take that to mean whatever you want to read into it.

Steve claims that we will net between $150 and $250 per day per machine. His plan has 5000 machines, I assume that 5000 is also the number in the Governor’s/Senate plan. I do agree with Steve that speading out the machines at 6 locations (I’d add Hinsdale to the list) is better than all at one location.

Lets examine the $150/$250 net revenue number a bit further. Steve’s Plan calls for a 92% return to the gamblers meaning that the net  revenue will be 8%. To get $150 per day net revenue the gamblers would have to spend $1875/machine per day on the low estimate and at $250 per day net revenue the gamblers would have to spend $3125/machine per day.

Using the Senate plans return of 87% to the gamblers the amount needed to net $150/machine/day would be $1154 and to net $250/machine per day would be $1923.

Using Rep Vaillancourts return to gambler of 92% results in the gamblers in NH having to spend $9,375,000 per day ($1875/machine X 5000 machines), or $3,421,875,000 per year. The $250 net figures would be $15,625,000 per day or a yearly gambling amount of $5,703,125,000. That’s right, folks in NH would have to ante up over $3 BILLION dollars per year and that’s at the low end estimates.

Connecticut reported in 2006 that NH residents spent ~$93,000,000 in 2005 at their casinos. The figures Rep Vaillancourt gave us equals Connecticut’s total NH revenue in 10 days!

Do we really believe that NH residents can and will ante up over $3 Billion per year on Gambling?

I’m a Free Enterprise supporter, but we have to use realistic numbers. The Democrats will start spending any flawed over estimates as soon as possible so we must be as accurate as possible and all inaccuracies must be on the low conservative side.

Work Hard Have Fun!

Bob DeMaura