Last weekend I was at two political social functions. Saturday I ate Mexican and Sunday I ate lobster—not too hard to take. I took the opportunity to take a very informal poll. The only question was, who will win the Republican Primary--John Stephen or Jeb Bradley?

The consensus was that John Stephen has a very good shot at winning. It’s no slam dunk either way, but in a low turn-out primary Stephen looks good.

Folks from Manchester tell me that Mr. Stephen is very much a favorite son there and Manchester Republicans vote in primaries. I’m also told that Mr. Stephen is working hard to make in-roads in the North Country. He will officially launch his campaign next week with a bus tour of District One.

Jeb Bradley is trying to capitalize on the recent UNH Poll that says he stacks up better against Carol Shea-Porter and is thus more electable. It will be interesting to see if that angle works for him. At the very least it might help him raise money. Then again it might not.

Here’s why I say it might not help raise money. I’ve been a public skeptic of the UNH Polls before and I remain so after this one. There are some very rough edges including the polling samples. The numbers favorable to Mr. Bradley would mean a lot more if the poll had targeted Republicans who vote in primaries. Most of the people questioned won’t be anywhere near a ballot box in September. And most big donors know that. So even fundraising based on this poll is iffy.

A number of people also responded that some Republicans just don’t want to back a candidate who lost a seat in the US Congress in a (so called) long shot. What surprised me though is how quickly Jeb Bradley secured the backing of three quarters of Republican State Legislators. That’s an impressive number.

This thing can go either way and will depend largely on who works the hardest.

I’m hoping for some fireworks too. C’mon Guys! Let’s rumble a little bit.

By the way my poll has a margin of error of 100%.

Housekeeping note: Last week I announced that I would devote a column to a "distinction without a difference." But Bill Gnade help me discuss this in the thread under my last column. I think its clear enough to move on to the elections.