74 Seat Gain in N.H. House would bring GOP margin to historical norm of 250-150

By Rep Steve Vaillancourt

Here are my final NH House predictions, a gain of 74 seats for a 250-150 Republican advantage (more than 12-8 on an average committee).  Ironically this is the same as Democrat Jim Splaine has been predicting for quite some time.  This would take things back to very close to the numbers prior to the 2006 landslide when Dems picked up an unheard of 91 seats (GOP gained 15 back in 2008).  As always, I weight top of the ticket as the most important factor, and this year, I don't mean the race for Governor but rather the mood of the country.  While Obama is not officially on the ballot, his influence is being felt (see latest Gallup analysis).  I place great emphasis on the generic national average, and although it's come down from eight to five points favoring Republicans (Gallup has it even), it's likely to be greater than that when the universe of likely voters is considered, and Republicans usually poll a point or two better than final polls.  A major caveat is that my analysis has always presumed Lynch winning by 10-12 points.  If in fact it's as close (two points) as Rasmussen and ARG have reported this past week, numbers will be even worse for Democrats.

About a dozen of these seats each way are close calls, what I like to refer to “gun to your head” predictions.   If you were forced to decide, what would you do?  I would not be overly surprised to see Republicans "steal" a seat in Keene and even Portsmouth, but I'm not predicting it here.  Much of this is based on V number primary analysis, the percentage candidates received of their own party's primary voters (I've produced V numbers for all 750 State Rep candidates).  It's especially useful in multi-member districts which lean one way or the other.  Is there one candidate who stands out as significantly below others in his/her party?  If so, that candidate might be vulnerable to being picked off, especially if one candidate on the other side outperforms others in the party.  That’s why I give Republicans a seat in Berlin which I previously had at 4-0 D. 

Hills. 27, the 13-member district of Hudson, Pelham, Litchfield, remains the most interesting one to me, the canary in the coal mine.  It's currently 10-3 R.  If Democrats hold those three seats, GOP gains should be much lower statewide election night, but I don't see that happening.  If Dems maintain two of those seats, gains will be somewhat limited, whereas if Dem turnout is light, GOP could take all 13 seats here signifying a statewide "bloodbath".  I'm predicting middle ground, that Mary Knowles hangs on while her husband John and  Hardy lose and the district winds up 12-1 R.

The two-member Belk 2 race (Tilton, Sanbornton) is particularly interesting.  I am very impressed by first-year Rep Liz Merry and think she has a chance of holding on, but cannot predict it based on turnout and the fact that while receiving fewer votes than Fields in the GOP primary, Tobin received double-digit Dem write-ins.  Watch this one Nov. 2

I have to plead a particular ignorance in regard to Nashua but have tried to talk to people there since it seems Republicans could make major inroads which I had not previously foreseen.  In western Hillsborough County, I have scaled back my projections of GOP gains--it seems to be an area going increasingly Dem, maybe "forever".

I have reversed my prior prediction that Republicans would take two seats in Merr 13 (Bow, Dunbarton).  Eric Anderson's decision not to run again means Walz should hold that second Dem seat.  I've also added a  Dem seat since they managed to fill (with write-in) the third spot in heavily Dem Newmarket.  Even if it's not an enthusiastic candidate, the area is so Dem that a GOP pick-up here would be a surprise.

I am fairly confident in predicting Dems will lose their seats in Derry and Weare/Goffstown and Salem and Plaistow; less confident that they will be reduced to zero in the Amherst and Merrimack and Hollis districts.  I'm more confident of GOP gains in Dover than I am in Carroll 1 and Coos 3 but enthusiasm of GOP turnout was the determining factor in all instances, as it is in picking Blankenbecker to hold on as the only Concord R.

Although I’m not at all confident in predicting a Dan Eaton loss in Cheshire 2, I base it on the fact that while he usually tops the ticket in the three-member district in the primary, he came in last this time.  And more shoes (such as today’s Union Leader editorial) are sure to drop in the next five weeks.  Also, I cling to the slender hope that there is some justice in this world!

For sake of consistency here, Republicans are always listed first, Democrats second.

I would be comfortable with a swing of four seats (the Janeway, Sgambati, Reynolds, and one other, maybe Devries or Gilmore) in the NH Senate from 14-10 D to 14-10 R although it could be greater.  There's one report (Now New Hampshire) that shows Hassan in trouble.  I'm not using that in my predictions, but it's out there.

  

County            2004                2006                2008                2010 Projection     Net Gain

 

Belknap          17-1                 14-4                 12-6                 17-1                             +5

Carroll            13-1                 9-5                   10-4                 13-1                             +3

Cheshire         7-17                 4-20                 5-19                 9-15                             +4

Coos                7-4                   4-7                   4-7                   7-4                               +3

Grafton          14-12                7-19                 7-19                 14-12                           +7

Hillsborough   79-44              53-70               56-67               81-42                           +25

Merrimack     20-24               9-35                 11-33               19-25                           +8

Rockingham   79-11               59-31               62-28               74-16                           +12

Strafford        13-24                1-36                 5-32                 10-27                           +5

Sullivan           3-10                 1-12                 4-9                    6-7                               +2

 

TOTAL          252-148           161-239           176-224           250-150                       +74                                                                             (-91)                (+15)              

 

 

 

­District/Towns/City/Wards             2004    2006    2008    2010 Projection     Net Gain

Belk 1  New Hampton, Ctr Harbor      1-0       1-0       1-0       1-0                               --

Belk 2  Sanbornton, Tilton                   1-1       1-1       1-1       2-0                               +1

Belk 3  Meredith                                  2-0       2-0       1-1       2-0                               +1

Belk 4  Laconia                                    5-0       2-3       2-3       4-1                               +2

Belk 5  Alton, Belmont, Gilford             7-0       7-0       6-1       7-0                               +1

Belk 6  Gilmanton                                1-0       1-0       1-0       1-0                               --

 

BELKNAP COUNTY                               17-1     14-4     12-6     17-1                             +5

 

District/Towns/City/Wards             2004    2006    2008    2010 Projection     Net Gain

Carr 1  Bartlett, Conway, Jackson       3-1       2-2       2-2       3-1                              +1

Carr 2  Albany, Easton                        1-0       0-1       0-1       1-0                               +1

Carr 3  Freedom, Ossipee, Sandwich  3-0       1-2       2-1       3-0                                +1

Carr 4  Wolfeboro, Moultonborough    4-0       4-0       4-0       4-0                               --

Carr 5  Effingham, Wafefield                2-0       2-0       2-0       2-0                               --

 

CARROLL COUNTY                                13-1     9-5       10-4     13-1                             +3

 

District/Towns/City/Wards             2004    2006    2008    2010 Projection     Net Gain

Ches 1 Gilsum, Westmoreland            0-1       0-1       1-0       1-0                               --

Ches 2 Walpole, Alstead, Marlow       1-2       0-3       0-3       1-2                               +1

Ches 3 Keene                                     0-7       0-7       0-7       0-7                               --

Ches 4 Hinsdale, Chesterfield            1-3       0-4       0-4       1-3                               +1

Ches 5 Fitzwilliam, Richmond              0-1       0-1       0-1       0-1                               --

Ches 6 Swansey, Troy, Harrsville       2-2       1-3       1-3       2-2                               +1

Ches 7 Rindge, Jaffrey, Dublin            3-1       3-1       3-1       4-0                               +1

 

CHESHIRE COUNTY                             7-17     4-20     5-19      9-15                             +4

District/Towns/City/Wards             2004    2006    2008    2010 Projection     Net Gain

Coos1  Pittsburg, Colebrook               2-0       2-0       2-0       2-0                               --

Coos 2 Lancaster, Jefferson, Whtfld   3-1       2-2       2-2       3-1                               +1

Coos 3 Gorham                                   1-0       0-1       0-1       1-0                               +1

Coos 4 Berlin, Milan                            1-3       0-4       0-4       1-3                               +1

 

COOS COUNTY                                  7-4       4-7       4-7       7-4                               +3

 

District/Towns/City/Wards              2004    2006    2008    2010 Projection     Net Gain

Gr 1     Littleman, Lyman                     2-0       2-0       2-0       2-0                               --

Gr 2     Franconia, Bethlehem               0-1       0-1       0-1       1-0                               +1

Gr 3     Lincoln, Bath, Easton, WV         2-0       2-0       1-1       2-0                               +1

Gr 4     Thornton, Woodstock               1-0       0-1       0-1       1-0                               +1

Gr 5     Haverhill, Warren                      2-0       2-0       2-0       2-0                               --

Gr 6     Orford, Campton, Rumney        2-0       0-2       0-2       1-1                               +1

Gr 7     Plymouth, Hebron                     0-2       0-2       0-2       0-2                               --

Gr 8     Bristol, Ashland, Holderness     3-0       1-2       2-1       3-0                               +1

Gr 9     Hanover, Lyme                         0-4       0-4       0-4       0-4                               --

Gr 10   Enfield, Canaan, Dorchester     1-2       0-3       0-3       2-1                               +2

Gr 11   Lebanon                                    0-4       0-4       0-4       0-4                               --

 

GRATON COUNTY                                14-12   7-19     7-19     14-12                            +7

 

 

District/Towns/City/Wards            2004    2006    2008    2010 Projection     Net Gain

Hills 1 Antrim, Hancock, Hillsboro        2-1       0-3       0-3       1-2                               +1

Hills 2 Francestown, Deering              1-1       0-2       0-2       1-1                               +1

Hills 3 Peterborough, New Ipswich     3-1       1-3       1-3       1-3                                --

Hills 4 New Boston, Lynd, Mt Vern      3-1       1-3       3-1       3-1                               --

Hills 5 Hollis, Mason, Brookline            3-1       2-2       3-1       4-0                               +1

Hills 6 Amherst, Milford                        8-0       7-1       7-1       8-0                               +1

Hills 7 Goffstown, Weare                    8-0       8-0       7-1       8-0                               +1

 

Hills 8 Manchester Ward 1                  1-2       1-2       0-3       1-2                               +1

Hills 9 Manchester Ward 2                  2-1       1-2       1-2       3-0                               +2

Hills 10 Manchester Ward 3                0-3       0-3       0-3       1-2                               +1

Hills 11 Manchester Ward 4                2-1       0-3       1-2       1-2                               --

Hills 12 Manchester Ward 5                0-3       0-3       0-3       1-2                               +1

Hills 13 Manchester Ward 6                2-1       1-2       2-1       2-1                               --

Hills 14 Manchester Ward 7                1-2       0-3       0-3       1-2                               +1

Hills 15 Manchester Ward 8                2-1       1-2       1-2       2-1                               +1

Hills 16 Manchester Ward 9                1-2       0-3       0-3       0-3                               --

Hills 17Manchester 10, 1l, 12              6-2       2-6       2-6       5-3                               +3

      (Manchester Total--                      17-18   6-29     7-28     17-18                           +10)

 

Hills 18 Bedford                                  6-0       6-0       6-0       6-0                               --

Hills 19 Merrimack                               8-0       7-1       7-1       8-0                               +1

Hills 20 Nashua Ward 1                      1-2       0-3       1-2       2-1                               +1

Hills 21 Nashua Ward 2                      2-1       1-2       1-2       2-1                               +1

Hills 22 Nashua Ward 3                      0-3       0-3       0-3       1-2                               +1

Hills 23 Nashua Ward 4                      0-3       0-3       0-3       1-2                               +1

Hills 24 Nashua Ward 6                      0-3       0-3       0-3       1-2                               +1

Hills25 Nashua Ward 7                       0-3       1-2       1-2       2-1                               +1

Hills 26 Nashua Wards 5, 8, 9            4-6       2-8       2-8       4-6                               +2

       (Nashua Total--                           7-21     4-24     5-23     13-15                           +8)

 

Hills 27  Hudson, Pelham, Litchfield  13-0     11-2     10-3     12-1                             +2

 

HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY           79-44   53-70  56-67   81-42                            +25   

 

  

 

 

District/Towns/City/Wards              2004    2006    2008    2010 Projection     Net Gain

Merr 1 Danbury, Wilmot, NLond.       1-1       1-1       1-1       1-1                               --

Merr 2 Franklin                                    2-1       1-2       2-1       3-0                               +1

Merr 3 Newbury, Sutton                      0-1       0-1       0-1       1-0                               +1

Merr 4 Hopkinton, Warner, Webster   1-2       0-3       0-3       0-3                               --

Merr 5 Bradford, Henniker                   1-1       0-2       0-2       0-2                               --

Merr 6 Andover, Loudon, Boscawen    3-3       1-5       2-4       3-3                               +1

Merr 7 Chichester, Pembroke              1-2       0-3       0-3       1-2                               +1

Merr 8 Allenstown, Epsom, Pittsfld.     3-1       0-4       1-3       4-0                               +3

Merr 9 Hooksett                                  4-0       3-1       4-0       4-0                               --

Merr 10  Concord Wards 1, 2, 4          1-3       0-4       0-4       0-4                               --

Merr 11  Concord Wards 4, 8, 9, 10    1-4       1-4       0-5       1-4                               +1

Merr 12  Concord Wards 5, 6, 7          1-3       1-3       0-4       0-4                               --

Merr 13  Bow, Dunbarton                    1-2       1-2       1-2       1-2                                --

 

MERRIMACK COUNTY                        20-24   9-35     11-33   19-25                           +8

 

 

District/Towns/City/Wards              2004    2006    2008    2010 Projection     Net Gain

Rock 1 Northwood, Candia, Deerfld.   5-0       3-2       3-2       5-0                               +2

Rock 2 Raymond                                 3-0       3-0       3-0       3-0                                --

Rock 3 Londonderry, Auburn              9-0       9-0       9-0       9-0                                --

Rock 4 Salem, Windham                     13-0     13-0     12-1     13-0                             +1

Rock 5 Derry                                       11-0     9-2       9-2       11-0                             +2

Rock 6 Atkinson                                  2-0       2-0       2-0       2-0                               --

Rock 7 Chester, Danville, Sandown    4-0       3-1       4-0       4-0                               --

Rock 8 Hampstead, Kingston, Plais.   7-0       7-0       6-1       7-0                               +1

Rock 9 Epping, Freemont                   3-0       2-1       2-1       2-1                               --

Rock 10  Brentwood                           1-0       1-0       0-1       1-0                               +1

Rock 11  East Kingston, Newton        1-1       1-1       1-1       2-0                               +1

Rock 12  Newfields, Newmarket         1-2       0-3       0-3       0-3                                --

Rock 13  Exeter, NoHam., Stratham   7-1       3-5       3-5       5-3                               +2

Rock 14  Seabrook, Kensington          4-0       2-2       3-1       4-0                                +1

Rock 15  Hampton                               5-0       1-4       3-2       3-2                               --

Rock 16  Portsmouth, Newington        0-7       0-7       0-7       0-7                               --

Rock 17  Greenland                             1-0        0-1       1-0       1-0                               --

Rock 18  New Castle, Rye                    2-0        0-2       1-1       2-0                               +1

 

ROCKINGHAM COUNTY                       79-11   59-31   62-28   74-16                           +12

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

District/Towns/City/Wards            2004    2006    2008    2010 Projection     Net Gain

Straf 1 Rochester                                6-3       1-8       3-6       4-5                               +1

Straf 2 Somersworth, Rollingford        0-5       0-5       0-5       0-5                               --

Straf 3 Straff., Farm., Barring, Milt.      6-2       0-8       2-6       4-4                               +2

Straf 4 Dover Wards 1, 2                    0-3       0-3       0-3       0-3                               --

Straf 5 Dover Wards 3, 4                    1-2       0-3       0-3       1-2                               +1

Straf 6 Dover Wards 5, 6                    0-3       0-3       0-3       1-2                               +1

Straf 7 Durham, Lee, Madbury            0-6       0-6       0-6       0-6                               --

 

STRAFFORD COUNTY                    13-24   1-36     5-32     10-27                             +5

 

District/Towns/City/Wards              2004    2006    2008    2010 Projection     Net Gain

Sull 1   Grantham, Plainfld, Cornish    0-2       0-2       0-2       0-2                               --

Sull 2   Newport, Croydon, Spring.     1-2       1-2       3-0       3-0                               --

Sull 3   Sunapee                                 1-0       0-1       0-1       1-0                               +1

Sull 4   Claremont, Unity, Lempster    1-4       0-5       1-4       2-3                               +1

Sull 5   Charlestown, Acworth, Land.  0-2       0-2       0-2       0-2                               --

 

SULLIVAN COUNTY                             3-10     1-12     4-9       6-7                                +2