Number Analysis For 2010 New Hampshire Primary

By Rep Steve Vaillancourt

From this, I think Republicans will gain two more seats in Manchester that I hadn't expected, in unheard of territory, Wards 3 and 5.  Only Rep to win in 3 since 1996 as Guinta; only Rep to win in 5 since 1996 was Greg Salts.  I also think Joel Winters (sadly) will now probably lose and GOP will go from 2-6 down to 6-2 up there.  A House of 250-150 is now within the realm of possibility.

I just heard that Dan Eaton, when not trying to bully state officials, is predicting GOP at 212!

V Number Analysis For 2010 New Hampshire Primary

An attempt to analyze extent of blank ballots for a certain office and their potential impact.  For example, the fact that nearly 19 percent of Democratic voters, the most enthused base one could imagine presumably, failed to vote for unopposed Paul Hodes could be considered a real problem.  Similarly, the fact that even with four candidates, 9.2 percent of Republicans failed to vote for any for governor could be considered a problem for John Stephen.

One would expect Republican numbers to be lower since logic demands that the greater the turnout, the more people will leave spaces blank!  This exercise can be done for any race in the state.  Simply determine, from the Secretary of State’s web site, the total number of votes cast in a race and do the division for a given candidate.  Note that this exercise is most valid for uncontested races lower on the ballot.  My focus is on Manchester.

Governor—Democrat—Total votes cast—60,892

          John Lynch—50,348—82.7 percent

          Tim Robertson—3792—6.2 percent

          Frank Sullivan—3418—5.6 percent

          Write-Ins or Blanks—3334—5.5 percent

Governor—Republican—Total votes cast—141,100

          John Stephen—78,783—55.8 percent

          Jack Kimball—32121—22.8 percent

          Karen Testerman—12,787—9.1 percent

          Frank Emiro—4400—3.1 percent

          Write-Ins or Blanks—13,009—9.2 percent

U.S. Senator—Democrat—Total votes cast—60,892

          Paul Hodes—49,845—81.6 percent

          Write-Ins or Blanks—11,047—18.4 percent

U.S. Senator—Republican—141,100 votes cast

          Kelly Ayotte—53,056—37.6 percent

          Ovide Lamontagne—51,397—36.4 percent

          Bill Binnie—19,508—13.8 percent

          Jim Bender—12,611—8.9 percent

          Dennis Lamare—1388—1.0 percent

          Tom Alciere—499—0.35 percent

          Gerard Beloin—402—0.28 percent

          Write-Ins or Blanks—2239—1.6 percent      

State Senate District 16—Democrat—2869 votes cast

(Bow, Candia, Dunbarton, Hooksett, Man Wds 1, 2, 12)

          Kathleen Kelley—2238—78.0 percent

State Senate District 16—Republican—7638 votes cast

          David Boutin—6087—79.7 percent

State Senate District 18—Democrat—2277 votes cast

          Betsi DeVries—Total—1806 votes—79.3 percent

          Litchfield—179 of 226—79.2 percent

          Man Wd 5—221 of 306—72.2 percent

          Man Wd 6—380 of 463—82.1 percent

          Man Wd 7—290 of 376—77.1 percent

          Man Wd 8—398 of 466—85.4 percent

          Man Wd 9—338 of 440—76.8 percent

Senate District 18—Republican—4730 votes cast

          Tom DeBlois—Total—3593 votes—76.0 percent

          Litchfield—660 of 898—73.5 percent

          Man Wd 5—277 of 362—76.5 percent

          Man Wd 6—790 of 1045—75.6 percent

          Man Wd 7—541 of 672—80.5 percent

          Man Wd 8—791 of 1042—75.9 percent

          Man Wd 9—534 of 711—75.1 percent

Senate District 20—Democrat—1917 votes cast

          Lou D’Allesandro—Total—1670 votes—87.1 percent

          Goffstown—515 of 599—86.0 percent

          Man Wd 3—205 of 256—80.1 percent

          Man Wd 4—298 of 333—89.5 percent

          Man Wd 10—392 of 431—91.0 percent

          Man Wd 11—260 of 298—87.2 percent

Senate District 20—Republican—4418 votes cast

          Joe Levasseur—Total—3250 votes—73.6 percent

          Goffstown—1599 of 2146—74.5 percent

          Man Wd 3—333 of 457—72.9 percent

          Man Wd 4—425 of 596—71.3 percent

          Man Wd 10—566 of 785—72.1 percent

          Man Wd 11—327 of 434—75.3 percent

MANCHESTER STATE REP DISTRICTS BY WARD

*(Note--three contested primaries, R in Wards 2 and 3, D in Ward 5)

(Three winners in each; except eight winners in 10, 11, 12)

Ward 1—Democrat—637 votes cast

          Goley—439—68.9 percent

          Ramsey—394—61.9 percent

          Dan Sullivan—379—59.5 percent

Ward 1—Republican—1476 votes cast

          Beaudoin—823—55.8 percent

          Mosca—748—50.7 percent

Ward 2—Democrat—436 votes cast

          Thomas—265—60.8 percent

          Thompson—261—59.9 percent

          Smith—242—55.5 percent

*Ward 2—Republican—1018 votes cast

          Hutchinson—515—50.6 percent

          DeJong—495—48.6 percent

          Ball—487—47.8 percent

          Evarts—230—22.6 percent

Ward 3—Democrat—256 votes cast

          Long—180—70.3 percent

          Jeudy—135—52.7 percent

          Brunelle—116—45.3 percent

Ward 3—Republican—457 votes cast

          Thibault—288—63.0 percent

          Cormiea—218—47.7 percent

          Savyon—204—44.6 percent

Ward 4—Democrat—333 votes cast

          Walsh—214—64.3 percent

          Levasseur—200—62.7 percent

          Barriere—163—48.9 percent

*Ward 4—Republican—596 votes cast

          Pepino—345—57.9 percent

          Souza—246—41.3 percent

          Shoults—230—38.6 percent

          Ghose—177—29.7 percent

*Ward 5—Democrat—306 votes cast

          *Rokas—174—56.9 percent

          Gimas—164—53.6 percent

          *Hebert—95—31.0 percent

          *Komi—88—28.8 percent

*Three incumbents. 2010 attendance—Komi 64%; Rojas 47%; Hebert 18%!

Ward 5—Republican—362 votes cast

          Olson—202—55.8 percent

          Champagne—201—55.5 percent

          Tarr—167—46.1 percent

Ward 6—Democrat—463 votes cast

          Baroody—329—71.1 percent

          Bergeron—291—62.9 percent

          Skilogianis—273—59.0 percent

Ward 6—Republican—1045 votes cast

          Infantine—751—71.9 percent

          Gagne—485—46.4 percent

Ward 7—Democrat—376 votes cast

          Pat Garrity—255—67.8 percent

          Haley—205—54.5 percent

          McDonald—195—51.9 percent

Ward 7—Republican—672 votes cast

          Cusson-Cail—421—62.6 percent

          Terrio—379—56.4 percent

          Cail—376—56.0 percent

Ward 8—Democrat—466 votes cast

          Tom Katsiantonis—285—61.2 percent

          Farley—256—54.9 percent

          Curran—214—45.9 percent

Ward 8—Republican—1042 votes cast

          Vaillancourt—590—56.6 percent

          Proulx—584—56.0 percent

Ward 9—Democrat—440 votes cast

          Shaw—282—64.1 percent

          Pilotte—249—56.6 percent

          Flurey—231—52.5 percent

Ward 9—Republican—711 votes cast

          Krochmal—411—57.8 percent

          Robert Barry—398—56.0 percent

          J. Gail Barry—368—51.8 percent

Wards 10, 11, 12—Democrat—1052 votes cast

          Boisvert—599—56.9 percent

          Backus—577—54.8 percent

          Bernier—553—52.6 percent

*George Katsiantonis—543—51.6 percent

          Brown—525—49.9 percent

          *Winters—514—48.9 percent

          Leary—497—47.2 percent

          George—486—46.2 percent

*Both incumbents; Winters had 100 percent attendance; Katsiantonis less than 13 percent attendance in 2010!!  No editorial comment needed!!

Wards 10, 11, 12—Republican—2064 votes cast

          Connie Soucy—1058—51.3 percent

          Messier—1051—50.9 percent

          Gonzalez—1008—48.8 percent

          Greazzo—991—48.0 percent

          Swank—897—43.4 percent

          Simmons—861—41.7 percent

          Bergevin—860—41.7 percent

          Beattie—832—40.3 percent

State Senate District 19--Democrat —1252 votes cast

(Derry Hampstead, Windham)

          St. Laurent—1252—77.0 percent

State Senate District 19—Republican—6010 votes cast

          Rausch—4332—72.1 percent