122 Seat Gain: Who Would’ve Guessed It?

By Rep. Steve Vaillancourt, Hills. 15

Certainly I would not have guessed it, but it’s time to compare the projected 74 seat gain (most pundits thought I was on the high side) to the 122 seat pick-up which actually occurred.  It seems there are 21 recounts scheduled (three votes for a Dem in Manchester Ward 9; one vote for a Dem in a Nashua ward), so conceivably the margin could reach 300-100.  As this chart will indicate, Democrats now have ZERO reps in Belknap and Carroll Counties; Dems control only one county (Cheshire) while Grafton is even.  The biggest surprises to me are in Nashua where Democrats went from 23 seats down to only six, a stunning loss of 17 seats, and in Strafford County where Republicans went from having only one Rep (Julie, Julie, Julie…Brown) four years ago to leading the delegation 19-18 coming up.  Democrats lost a phenomenal 46 seats in Hillsborough County (I had predicted 25) and only have 1 of the 60 seats in the Hills. County towns!

Take special note of the megadistricts.  I have put a chart labeled Megadistrict Megadisaster for Dems for my TV show.  Democrats were nearly totally wiped out in districts with six or more seats (except for Keene, Portsmouth, and Durham).  Democrats even lost seats in their traditional stronghold, cities:  one in Berlin; three of five seats in Claremont; all five seats in Belknap; seven of nine seats in Rochester; two in Dover; and most surprising of all, two of the five seats in Somersworth-Rollinsford.  In the megadistricts except the college towns and cities, Democrats salvaged only two of eight seats in the Exeter area. 

As I alluded to in this prediction piece written six months ago, I was most interested in the Hills. 27 13-member district where Dems had three seats prior to Tuesday.  Not only did they lose all three, but there was nearly a 2000 vote drop between the lowest Republican winner (Jonathan Maltz, 6106) and the top Democratic loser (M. Knowles, 4139).  This was the case throughout the state—these megadistricts weren’t even close.  (That makes for easier recounts).

Democrats also appear to have lost control of cities.  My count is a net loss of 47 seats, from a 114-20 lead to 67-67 split in the 13 cities (Berlin from 4-0 to 3-1; Claremont from 4-1 to 2-3; Concord from 13-0 to 12-1; Laconia from  3-2 to 0-5; Keene and Portsmouth still at 7-0; Lebanon still at 4-0; Manchester from 28-7 to 14-21; Nashua from 23-5 to 6-22; Franklin from 1-2 to 0-3; Somersworth from 5-0 to 3-2; Dover from 9-0 to 7-2; and Rochester from 6-3 to 2-7).

Those who are more politically savvy than I will have to explain the reasons, but I would point out that if you extrapolate the 122 seat loss to the national level, Nancy Pelosi’s Democrats would have lost not 61-65 seats but something in the range of 140!  Clearly, New Hampshire was the worst state for Democrats in the country, the only New England State where Congressional seats were lost.  I would suggest two reasons—Kelly Ayotte must have had coattails and voters were sick of the tactics of the vile triumvirate of Ray Buckley, Kathy Sullivan and Mikey Brunelle.  Typical of the low level to which they sunk was my own Senate district (18) in which I got three flyers the same day, one which was intended to picture Republican Tom DeBlois as a criminal behind bars.  DeBlois ended up winning Manchester by 700 votes and Litchfield by 1300 for a lopsided 57-43 win over Betsi DeVries.  Republicans should be thanking Ray, KathytheS, and Mikey, not to mention Terie Norelli who like Nancy Pelosi has the unmitigated hubris to think clinging to power will be a good thing for her party.   When will they ever learn? 

When will Dems ever learn that if they are to come back in two years, they need to get rid of the likes of Ray, Kathy, Mikey, Terie, and Nancy?  Will they get the message?  I think not.  Typical of the entire head-in-the-sand mentality was this verbatim quote from Senator Lou D’Allesandro (one of the new five pack of Senators—if he can survive a recount) on Channel Nine’s Close-Up.  Lou actually said, “People are mad, and they don’t know what they’re mad about!”  Oh really, Lou?!  That’s simply another way of calling voters stupid, and neither WMUR host Josh McElveen nor Republican Senate President in waiting Peter Bragdon called Lou out on this most inane of statements.

I call him on it in this week’s edition of More Politically Alert which I just taped.  It’s already up on http:/vimeo.com/channels/mpa and will air on Channel 23 in Manchester Wednesday and Sunday at noon, Thursday at 9 p.m. and next Tuesday at 11 p.m.

The goal here is not to rant…but to report the numbers, a district by district comparison of my predictions vs. what actually happened.

First here’s what I wrote when making the predictions….

74 Seat Gain in N.H. House would bring GOP margin to historical norm of 250-150

Here are my final NH House predictions, a gain of 74 seats for a 250-150 Republican advantage (more than 12-8 on an average committee).  Ironically this is the same as Democrat Jim Splaine has been predicting for quite some time.  This would take things back to very close to the numbers prior to the 2006 landslide when Dems picked up an unheard of 91 seats (GOP gained 15 back in 2008).  As always, I weight top of the ticket as the most important factor, and this year, I don't mean the race for Governor but rather the mood of the country.  While Obama is not officially on the ballot, his influence is being felt (see latest Gallup analysis).  I place great emphasis on the generic national average, and although it's come down from eight to five points favoring Republicans (Gallup has it even), it's likely to be greater than that when the universe of likely voters is considered, and Republicans usually poll a point or two better than final polls.  A major caveat is that my analysis has always presumed Lynch winning by 10-12 points.  If in fact it's as close (two points) as Rasmussen and ARG have reported this past week, numbers will be even worse for Democrats.

 About a dozen of these seats each way are close calls, what I like to refer to “gun to your head” predictions.   If you were forced to decide, what would you do?  I would not be overly surprised to see Republicans "steal" a seat in Keene and even Portsmouth, but I'm not predicting it here.  Much of this is based on V number primary analysis, the percentage candidates received of their own party's primary voters (I've produced V numbers for all 750 State Rep candidates).  It's especially useful in multi-member districts which lean one way or the other.  Is there one candidate who stands out as significantly below others in his/her party?  If so, that candidate might be vulnerable to being picked off, especially if one candidate on the other side outperforms others in the party.  That’s why I give Republicans a seat in Berlin which I previously had at 4-0 D. 

 Hills. 27, the 13-member district of Hudson, Pelham, Litchfield, remains the most interesting one to me, the canary in the coal mine.  It's currently 10-3 R.  If Democrats hold those three seats, GOP gains should be much lower statewide election night, but I don't see that happening.  If Dems maintain two of those seats, gains will be somewhat limited, whereas if Dem turnout is light, GOP could take all 13 seats here signifying a statewide "bloodbath".  I'm predicting middle ground, that Mary Knowles hangs on while her husband John and Hardy lose and the district winds up 12-1 R.

 The two-member Belk 2 race (Tilton, Sanbornton) is particularly interesting.  I am very impressed by first-year Rep Liz Merry and think she has a chance of holding on, but cannot predict it based on turnout and the fact that while receiving fewer votes than Fields in the GOP primary, Tobin received double-digit Dem write-ins.  Watch this one Nov. 2

I have to plead a particular ignorance in regard to Nashua but have tried to talk to people there since it seems Republicans could make major inroads which I had not previously foreseen.  In western Hillsborough County, I have scaled back my projections of GOP gains--it seems to be an area going increasingly Dem, maybe "forever".

I have reversed my prior prediction that Republicans would take two seats in Merr 13 (Bow, Dunbarton).  Eric Anderson's decision not to run again means Walz should hold that second Dem seat.  I've also added a  Dem seat since they managed to fill (with write-in) the third spot in heavily Dem Newmarket.  Even if it's not an enthusiastic candidate, the area is so Dem that a GOP pick-up here would be a surprise.

I am fairly confident in predicting Dems will lose their seats in Derry and Weare/Goffstown and Salem and Plaistow; less confident that they will be reduced to zero in the Amherst and Merrimack and Hollis districts.  I'm more confident of GOP gains in Dover than I am in Carroll 1 and Coos 3 but enthusiasm of GOP turnout was the determining factor in all instances, as it is in picking Blankenbecker to hold on as the only Concord R.   Although I’m not at all confident in predicting a Dan Eaton loss in Cheshire 2, I base it on the fact that while he usually tops the ticket in the three-member district in the primary, he came in last this time.  And more shoes (such as today’s Union Leader editorial) are sure to drop in the next five weeks.  Also, I cling to the slender hope that there is some justice in this world!

For sake of consistency here, Republicans are always listed first, Democrats second.

I would be comfortable with a swing of four seats (the Janeway, Sgambati, Reynolds, and one other, maybe Devries or Gilmore) in the NH Senate from 14-10 D to 14-10 R although it could be greater.  There's one report (Now New Hampshire) that shows Hassan in trouble.  I'm not using that in my predictions, but it's out there.

                                                                                                Prediction         Actual                                    County            2004                2006                2008                2010    Gain    Gain/ 2010

Belknap          17-1                 14-4                 12-6                 17-1    +5      +6   18-0

Carroll            13-1                 9-5                   10-4                 13-1    +3      +4   14-0

Cheshire         7-17                 4-20                 5-19                 9-15    +4      +5   10-14

Coos                7-4                   4-7                   4-7                   7-4      +3      +2    6-5

Grafton          14-12                7-19                 7-19                 14-12  +7      +6    13-13

Hillsborough   79-44              53-70               56-67               81-42  +25     +46  102-21

Merrimack     20-24               9-35                 11-33               19-25  +8       +16  27-17

Rockingham   79-11               59-31               62-28               74-16  +12     +18  80-10

Strafford        13-24                1-36                 5-32                 10-27  +5       +14  19-18

Sullivan           3-10                 1-12                 4-9                    6-7     +2       +5     9-4

TOTAL          252-148           161-239           176-224      250-150   +74    +122  298-102                                                                             (-91)                (+15)              

                                                                                                Prediction       Actual

­District/Towns/City/Wards             2004    2006    2008    2010     Gain   Gain/2010

Belk 1  New Hampton, Ctr Harbor      1-0       1-0       1-0       1-0        --       --   1-0

Belk 2  Sanbornton, Tilton                   1-1       1-1       1-1       2-0        +1    +1   2-0

Belk 3  Meredith                                  2-0       2-0       1-1       2-0         +1    +1   2-0

Belk 4  Laconia                                     5-0       2-3       2-3       4-1       +2     +3   5-0

Belk 5  Alton, Belmont, Gilford           7-0       7-0       6-1       7-0        +1     +1  7-0

Belk 6  Gilmanton                                1-0       1-0       1-0       1-0         --       --   1-0

BELKNAP COUNTY                         17-1     14-4     12-6     17-1        +5     +6  18-0

                                                                                                Prediction     Actual              

District/Towns/City/Wards             2004    2006    2008    2010    Gain    Gain/2010

Carr 1  Bartlett, Conway, Jackson       3-1       2-2       2-2       3-1    +1          +2    4-0

Carr 2  Albany, Easton                        1-0       0-1       0-1       1-0     +1          +1    1-0

Carr 3  Freedom, Ossipee, Sandwich  3-0       1-2       2-1       3-0     +1          +1    3-0

Carr 4  Wolfeboro, Moultonborough   4-0       4-0       4-0       4-0     --           --     4-0

Carr 5  Effingham, Wafefield              2-0       2-0       2-0       2-0      --          --      2-0

CARROLL COUNTY                        13-1     9-5       10-4     13-1      +3        +4    14-0

                                                                                                Prediction              Actual     

District/Towns/City/Wards             2004    2006    2008    2010   Gain        Gain/2010

Ches 1 Gilsum, Westmoreland            0-1       0-1       1-0       1-0     --          --         1-0

Ches 2 Walpole, Alstead, Marlow      1-2       0-3       0-3       1-2     +1         +1       2-0

Ches 3 Keene                                       0-7       0-7       0-7       0-7     --           --         0-7

Ches 4 Hinsdale, Chesterfield             1-3       0-4       0-4       1-3    +1           +1        1-3

Ches 5 Fitzwilliam, Richmond            0-1       0-1       0-1       0-1     --           +1        1-0

Ches 6 Swansey, Troy, Harrsville      2-2       1-3       1-3       2-2      +1          +1        2-2

Ches 7 Rindge, Jaffrey, Dublin           3-1       3-1       3-1       4-0      +1         +1         4-0

CHESHIRE COUNTY                      7-17     4-20     5-19      9-15    +4           +5      10-14

                                                                                                Prediction                   Actual

District/Towns/City/Wards             2004    2006    2008    2010  Gain          Gain/2010

Coos1  Pittsburg, Colebrook               2-0       2-0       2-0       2-0      --             --       2-0

Coos 2 Lancaster, Jefferson, Whtfld   3-1       2-2       2-2       3-1      +1            +1     3-1

Coos 3 Gorham                                   1-0       0-1       0-1       1-0       +1            --      0-1

Coos 4 Berlin, Milan                           1-3       0-4       0-4       1-3       +1            +1     1-3

COOS COUNTY                                7-4       4-7       4-7       7-4       +3            +2       6-5

                                                                                                Prediction              Actual

District/Towns/City/Wards              2004    2006    2008    2010    Gain       Gain/2010

Gr 1     Littleman, Lyman                     2-0       2-0       2-0       2-0       --          --     2-0

Gr 2     Franconia, Bethlehem               0-1       0-1       0-1       1-0      +1         --      0-1

Gr 3     Lincoln, Bath, Easton, WV       2-0       2-0       1-1       2-0      +1          +1    2-0

Gr 4     Thornton, Woodstock              1-0       0-1       0-1       1-0        +1          +1   1-0

Gr 5     Haverhill, Warren                     2-0       2-0       2-0       2-0         --          --     2-0

Gr 6     Orford, Campton, Rumney       2-0       0-2       0-2       1-1        +1          +1   1-1

Gr 7     Plymouth, Hebron                     0-2       0-2       0-2       0-2         --           --    0-2

Gr 8     Bristol, Ashland, Holderness    3-0       1-2       2-1       3-0         +1         +1    3-0

Gr 9     Hanover, Lyme                          0-4       0-4       0-4       0-4         --           --    0-4

Gr 10   Enfield, Canaan, Dorchester      1-2       0-3       0-3       2-1        +2         +2    2-1

Gr 11   Lebanon                                      0-4       0-4       0-4       0-4         --          --     0-4

GRATON COUNTY                           14-12   7-19     7-19     14-12       +7       +6   13-13  

                                                                                                Prediction         Actual

District/Towns/City/Wards            2004    2006    2008    2010   Gain         Gain/2010

Hills 1 Antrim, Hancock, Hillsboro    2-1       0-3       0-3       1-2    +1          +2      2-1

Hills 2 Francestown, Deering              1-1       0-2       0-2       1-1    +1          +2      2-0

Hills 3 Peterborough, New Ipswich    3-1       1-3       1-3       1-3      --           +3     4-0

Hills 4 New Boston, Lynd, Mt Vern    3-1       1-3       3-1       3-1     --           +1     4-0

Hills 5 Hollis, Mason, Brookline         3-1       2-2       3-1       4-0     +1          +1    4-0

Hills 6 Amherst, Milford                     8-0       7-1       7-1       8-0      +1         +1     8-0

Hills 7 Goffstown, Weare                    8-0       8-0       7-1       8-0     +1          +1      8-0

Hills 8 Manchester Ward 1                  1-2       1-2       0-3       1-2      +1           --      0-3

Hills 9 Manchester Ward 2                  2-1       1-2       1-2       3-0      +2           +2     3-0

Hills 10 Manchester Ward 3                0-3       0-3       0-3       1-2       +1          --       0-3

Hills 11 Manchester Ward 4                2-1       0-3       1-2       1-2       --            +1     2-1

Hills 12 Manchester Ward 5                0-3       0-3       0-3       1-2       +1           +1     1-2

Hills 13 Manchester Ward 6                2-1       1-2       2-1       2-1        --            --      2-1

Hills 14 Manchester Ward 7                1-2       0-3       0-3       1-2        +1          +2      2-1

Hills 15 Manchester Ward 8                2-1       1-2       1-2       2-1        +1          +1      2-1

Hills 16 Manchester Ward 9                1-2       0-3       0-3       0-3          --          +1      1-2

Hills 17Manchester 10, 1l, 12             6-2       2-6       2-6       5-3          +3          +6     8-0

      (Manchester Total--                      17-18   6-29     7-28     17-18       +10    +14   21-14)

Hills 18 Bedford                                 6-0       6-0       6-0       6-0        --            --        6-0 

Hills 19 Merrimack                             8-0       7-1       7-1       8-0      +1            +1      8-0

Hills 20 Nashua Ward 1                      1-2       0-3       1-2       2-1      +1            +2      3-0

Hills 21 Nashua Ward 2                      2-1       1-2       1-2       2-1      +1            +2      3-0

Hills 22 Nashua Ward 3                      0-3       0-3       0-3       1-2      +1            +1       1-2

Hills 23 Nashua Ward 4                      0-3       0-3       0-3       1-2       +1           +1       1-2

Hills 24 Nashua Ward 6                      0-3       0-3       0-3       1-2       +1           +1       1-2

Hills25 Nashua Ward 7                       0-3       1-2       1-2       2-1       +1            +2      3-0

Hills 26 Nashua Wards 5, 8, 9            4-6       2-8       2-8       4-6        +2            +8    10-0

       (Nashua Total--                            7-21     4-24     5-23     13-15     +8        +17     22-6)

Hills 27  Hudson, Pelham, Litchfield  13-0     11-2     10-3     12-1     +2        +3       13-0

HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY           79-44   53-70  56-67   81-42     +25     +46   102-21 

                                                                                                Prediction       Actual            

District/Towns/City/Wards              2004    2006    2008    2010  Gain     Gain/2010

Merr 1 Danbury, Wilmot, NLond.       1-1       1-1       1-1       1-1      --        --     1-1

Merr 2 Franklin                                    2-1       1-2       2-1       3-0      +1      +1    3-0

Merr 3 Newbury, Sutton                      0-1       0-1       0-1       1-0      +1       +1    1-0

Merr 4 Hopkinton, Warner, Webster   1-2       0-3       0-3       0-3       --        --     0-3

Merr 5 Bradford, Henniker                  1-1       0-2       0-2       0-2       --        +2     2-0

Merr 6 Andover, Loudon, Boscawen  3-3       1-5       2-4       3-3        +1      +4     6-0

Merr 7 Chichester, Pembroke              1-2       0-3       0-3       1-2       +1       +3     3-0

Merr 8 Allenstown, Epsom, Pittsfld.   3-1       0-4       1-3       4-0       +3       +3     4-0

Merr 9 Hooksett                                   4-0       3-1       4-0       4-0        --         --     4-0

Merr 10  Concord Wards 1, 2, 4          1-3       0-4       0-4       0-4        --          --     0-4

Merr 11  Concord Wards 4, 8, 9, 10    1-4       1-4       0-5       1-4       +1         +1    1-4

Merr 12  Concord Wards 5, 6, 7          1-3       1-3       0-4       0-4        --          --     0-4

Merr 13  Bow, Dunbarton                   1-2       1-2       1-2       1-2         --         +1    2-1

MERRIMACK COUNTY                   20-24   9-35     11-33   19-25   +8         +16  27-17

                                                                                                Prediction          Actual

District/Towns/City/Wards              2004    2006    2008    2010  Gain     Gain/2010

Rock 1 Northwood, Candia, Deerfld.  5-0       3-2       3-2       5-0     +2        +2      5-0

Rock 2 Raymond                                 3-0       3-0       3-0       3-0      --          --       3-0

Rock 3 Londonderry, Auburn              9-0       9-0       9-0       9-0      --          --       9-0

Rock 4 Salem, Windham                     13-0     13-0     12-1     13-0    +1         +1    13-0

Rock 5 Derry                                       11-0     9-2       9-2       11-0    +2          +2    11-0

Rock 6 Atkinson                                  2-0       2-0       2-0       2-0       --           --      2-0

Rock 7 Chester, Danville, Sandown    4-0       3-1       4-0       4-0       --           --      4-0

Rock 8 Hampstead, Kingston, Plais.   7-0       7-0       6-1       7-0       +1          +1    7-0

Rock 9 Epping, Freemont                    3-0       2-1       2-1       2-1        --          +1     3-0

Rock 10  Brentwood                            1-0       1-0       0-1       1-0       +1          +1     1-0

Rock 11  East Kingston, Newton         1-1       1-1       1-1       2-0       +1          +1      2-0

Rock 12  Newfields, Newmarket         1-2       0-3       0-3       0-3        --           +2     2-1

Rock 13  Exeter, NoHam., Stratham    7-1       3-5       3-5       5-3       +2          +3      6-2

Rock 14  Seabrook, Kensington          4-0       2-2       3-1       4-0        +1          +1      4-0 

Rock 15  Hampton                               5-0       1-4       3-2       3-2         --           +2      5-0

Rock 16  Portsmouth, Newington        0-7       0-7       0-7       0-7         --            --      0-7

Rock 17  Greenland                             1-0        0-1       1-0       1-0         --           --       1-0

Rock 18  New Castle, Rye                  2-0        0-2       1-1       2-0          +1           +1    2-0

ROCKINGHAM COUNTY                79-11   59-31   62-28   74-16      +12    +18    80-10

                                                                                    Prediction                     Actual

District/Towns/City/Wards            2004    2006    2008    2010  Gain        Gain/2010

Straf 1 Rochester                                 6-3       1-8       3-6       4-5   +1          +4   7-2

Straf 2 Somersworth, Rollingford       0-5       0-5       0-5       0-5     --          +2   2-3

Straf 3 Straff., Farm., Barring, Milt.   6-2       0-8       2-6       4-4    +2          +6   8-0

Straf 4 Dover Wards 1, 2                     0-3       0-3       0-3       0-3    --            --   0-3

Straf 5 Dover Wards 3, 4                     1-2       0-3       0-3       1-2    +1           --   0-3

Straf 6 Dover Wards 5, 6                     0-3       0-3       0-3       1-2    +1           +2   2-1

Straf 7 Durham, Lee, Madbury           0-6       0-6       0-6       0-6      --            --   0-6

STRAFFORD COUNTY                    13-24   1-36     5-32     10-27  +5         +14   19-18

                                                                                                Prediction            Actual

District/Towns/City/Wards              2004    2006    2008    2010 Gain       Gain/2010

Sull 1   Grantham, Plainfld, Cornish    0-2       0-2       0-2       0-2    --           --     0-2

Sull 2   Newport, Croydon, Spring.     1-2       1-2       3-0       3-0      --          --     3-0

Sull 3   Sunapee                                    1-0       0-1       0-1       1-0    +1          +1    1-0

Sull 4   Claremont, Unity, Lempster    1-4       0-5       1-4       2-3     +1          +2    3-2

Sull 5   Charlestown, Acworth, Land.  0-2       0-2       0-2       0-2      --           +2   2-0

SULLIVAN COUNTY                        3-10     1-12     4-9       6-7      +2          +5    9-4

BEWARE VICTORY!

Advisory Note to the GOP

You know the old saw: “Beware of what you wish for.” We Republicans wished for a sweeping victory. We got it, nationwide. Now we need to govern.

Yet, “to govern” presents a high hurdle. For the problems to be faced and resolved are not only complex, they are wickedly so. The odds of failure over the next two years are high. As an economist, let me say that the odds are also high that the economy will be little better two years from now than now. Incomes will still be low and unemployment still unacceptably high.  For the economic grist for the GOP campaign mill -- “cut spending, reduce taxes” -- is not up to the challenges of our troubled economy. Thus, it is likely that another wave of resentment to “throw the bums out” will emerge during 2012. The “bums“, however, would be Republican bums, as in ‘06.

So what’s to be done so the Republicans can take some credit for economic revival, jobs’ creation and unemployment reduction over the next year or so? After all, we were largely correct in our claims that Osama’s “stimulus” has failed. Pure government spending, as if government is a productive sector, is largely waste from the standpoint of what are the three prime drivers of economic growth and development -- entrepreneurship, innovation and productivity. Yet, there is potential that government spending might have positive impacts to the extent that it: (1) is not “pure” but rather directed to spurring the latter three and (2) provides incentives to private sector investment spending.

Several guidelines, advisories or suggestions emerge from this line of thinking, as follows.

ü      Think long term. Try to put aside the inevitable temptations of Members of Congress  to look for stimuli in the form of “quickies”. This advisory implies major job-creating public infrastructure projects in the areas of transportation, science and technology, water, renewable energies and the environment.

ü      Raise productivity: With the help of people from business, labor and the inter-disciplinary research community, formulate and implement a strategy to foster productivity improvements.

ü      Spur entrepreneurship and innovation: For example, see my “Strategy to Increase Entrepreneurship and Innovation…” Note that 64% of net new jobs arise from science or technology-based enterprises no more than five years old.

ü      Consider a carbon “tax” [actually, a fee on emissions of carbon pollutants]: This is a market-perfecting device that provides real incentives for accelerated development of renewable energy sources. “Real” means prices that account for the external costs of our over-dependence on carbon fuels. Remember what happened in the ’70’s when the price of oil declined? -- Conservation efforts were canned and renewable energy projects went by the boards. Our dependence on foreign oil has been increasing ever since. Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiatives like that in New England have demonstrated that a few cents’ increase in electric power bills provide millions of dollars’ worth of investment in renewable energy. Part of the fee’s yield could also help to reduce governments deficits.

ü      Remove regulatory impediments to entrepreneurship and innovation at all levels. 

These sorts of initiatives call for significant communication, cooperation and collaboration [3Cs] between the executive and legislative branches of our government, giving new life to bipartisanship. Without such new life, those of us who look forward to a new Congress to “get things done” will be sorely disappointed. The most significant threat, however, would be to the economy. As a commentator in “Moneynews” remarked online on election day in an article entitled “Gridlock in Congress Will Threaten Economy“:

              “A standoff between the Obama administration and emboldened Republicans will probably block any new help for an economy squeezed by slow growth and high unemployment.”

If the old political power and ego games reign in the new Congress, we all lose. There is a lot more at stake than Congressional egos. Let us hope that the 3Cs approach can prevail.

The new Republican-dominated Congress, for example, should be open to supporting President Obama’s new $50 billion dollar “Stimulus II” package -- to the extent that its transportation and any other infrastructure projects help to improve productivity as well as provide jobs.

The 3Cs, therefore, amount to a basic guideline for the new Congress. The great American majority of “We the People” expects their elected and unelected officials to work together for the good our country. That is the main challenge. That is primarily “What’s to be done.”

            PETER BEARSE, Ph.D., International Consulting Economist, 11/3/10. Send questions or feedback to pjbearse@gmail.com or by way of a call to 382-8079.



John Stephen is a Fear Monger

By Chris Dornin

John Stephen is telling a big lie about the new parole law, SB 500, in his race to become governor. SB 500 makes sure all inmates leave prison with a parole officer to watch them. 

 

In a recent press release, Stephen called this visionary legislation “Governor Lynch’s misguided policy of letting violent felons out of prison early. As a former prosecutor who helped to ensure that we have tough truth in sentencing laws, I am outraged by this new law.  Governor Lynch’s new law erodes our public safety by putting these sex offenders and other violent criminals back on the street.”

 

Stephen is playing the hate card, and he should know better. But if he really believes his own words, he is fool. Previously, more than 200 people a year, some of the most violent, served out their maximum terms and left prison with no help on the streets. SB 500 places those people on tightly monitored parole outside the walls the last nine months of their maximum sentence. All inmates need that structure to rejoin society safely. 

 

It would be folly to deny this vital support to the very people who pose the greatest threat. Holding them in prison that last nine months sounds tough on crime in sound bytes, but it would undermine the public safety a governor is sworn to protect. Those inmates would soon leave anyway.

 

SB 500 won strong, bipartisan majorities in both the House and Senate committees and floor votes after a year-long, richly data-driven study supported by the Pew Charitable Trusts, NH Charitable Foundation, the US Justice Department and the National Association of the States. A blue-ribbon state policy commission led by the attorney general closely tracked and accepted the findings of that study, which became SB 500. 

 

Members of the task force included the chief justices of all three levels of the court system, the Senate president, the House speaker, the Governor’s Office, other top Republican and Democratic lawmakers, the commissioner of Health and Human Services, the commissioner of Corrections, county officials, and other experts. Few laws in state history have been so well and dispassionately researched. 

 

All the key stakeholders had many chances to give input, including victim advocates, the police, prosecutors, the Parole Department, and the Parole Board. It’s disingenuous for that group to claim it was denied a voice in the process. Now it is orchestrating an 11th-hour effort to protect its benighted bureaucratic turf. John Stephen has climbed aboard. 

 

The old way of dealing with inmates was to give them a revolving door out from prison and back inside. Most of the people who served their maximum sentences left prison without a parole officer, money, housing, employment, and family support because they had been gone so long. Many committed new crimes in the first nine months out, the greatest danger period.

 

Under strict monitoring, people can be directed to treatment and reentry interventions designed to stop the cycle of re-offending. The state has won federal seed grants to help pay for these services until it can divert savings from prison cost reductions into community programs.

 

These reforms are too important to fall victim to election-year scare tactics heavily funded by deep pockets from outside New Hampshire. The new law will protect the community better than before, lower recidivism, and make our state a safer place to live. 

 

This law is not about being nice to bad guys. Former House Speaker Donna Sytek, the Republican who spearheaded the truth-in-sentencing law, supports SB 500. If Stephen wants the new law to be an election litmus test, so be it. 

 

Chris Dornin of Concord is a retired Statehouse reporter and a former prison counselor and volunteer.

Number Analysis For 2010 New Hampshire Primary

By Rep Steve Vaillancourt

From this, I think Republicans will gain two more seats in Manchester that I hadn't expected, in unheard of territory, Wards 3 and 5.  Only Rep to win in 3 since 1996 as Guinta; only Rep to win in 5 since 1996 was Greg Salts.  I also think Joel Winters (sadly) will now probably lose and GOP will go from 2-6 down to 6-2 up there.  A House of 250-150 is now within the realm of possibility.

I just heard that Dan Eaton, when not trying to bully state officials, is predicting GOP at 212!

V Number Analysis For 2010 New Hampshire Primary

An attempt to analyze extent of blank ballots for a certain office and their potential impact.  For example, the fact that nearly 19 percent of Democratic voters, the most enthused base one could imagine presumably, failed to vote for unopposed Paul Hodes could be considered a real problem.  Similarly, the fact that even with four candidates, 9.2 percent of Republicans failed to vote for any for governor could be considered a problem for John Stephen.

One would expect Republican numbers to be lower since logic demands that the greater the turnout, the more people will leave spaces blank!  This exercise can be done for any race in the state.  Simply determine, from the Secretary of State’s web site, the total number of votes cast in a race and do the division for a given candidate.  Note that this exercise is most valid for uncontested races lower on the ballot.  My focus is on Manchester.

Governor—Democrat—Total votes cast—60,892

          John Lynch—50,348—82.7 percent

          Tim Robertson—3792—6.2 percent

          Frank Sullivan—3418—5.6 percent

          Write-Ins or Blanks—3334—5.5 percent

Governor—Republican—Total votes cast—141,100

          John Stephen—78,783—55.8 percent

          Jack Kimball—32121—22.8 percent

          Karen Testerman—12,787—9.1 percent

          Frank Emiro—4400—3.1 percent

          Write-Ins or Blanks—13,009—9.2 percent

U.S. Senator—Democrat—Total votes cast—60,892

          Paul Hodes—49,845—81.6 percent

          Write-Ins or Blanks—11,047—18.4 percent

U.S. Senator—Republican—141,100 votes cast

          Kelly Ayotte—53,056—37.6 percent

          Ovide Lamontagne—51,397—36.4 percent

          Bill Binnie—19,508—13.8 percent

          Jim Bender—12,611—8.9 percent

          Dennis Lamare—1388—1.0 percent

          Tom Alciere—499—0.35 percent

          Gerard Beloin—402—0.28 percent

          Write-Ins or Blanks—2239—1.6 percent      

State Senate District 16—Democrat—2869 votes cast

(Bow, Candia, Dunbarton, Hooksett, Man Wds 1, 2, 12)

          Kathleen Kelley—2238—78.0 percent

State Senate District 16—Republican—7638 votes cast

          David Boutin—6087—79.7 percent

State Senate District 18—Democrat—2277 votes cast

          Betsi DeVries—Total—1806 votes—79.3 percent

          Litchfield—179 of 226—79.2 percent

          Man Wd 5—221 of 306—72.2 percent

          Man Wd 6—380 of 463—82.1 percent

          Man Wd 7—290 of 376—77.1 percent

          Man Wd 8—398 of 466—85.4 percent

          Man Wd 9—338 of 440—76.8 percent

Senate District 18—Republican—4730 votes cast

          Tom DeBlois—Total—3593 votes—76.0 percent

          Litchfield—660 of 898—73.5 percent

          Man Wd 5—277 of 362—76.5 percent

          Man Wd 6—790 of 1045—75.6 percent

          Man Wd 7—541 of 672—80.5 percent

          Man Wd 8—791 of 1042—75.9 percent

          Man Wd 9—534 of 711—75.1 percent

Senate District 20—Democrat—1917 votes cast

          Lou D’Allesandro—Total—1670 votes—87.1 percent

          Goffstown—515 of 599—86.0 percent

          Man Wd 3—205 of 256—80.1 percent

          Man Wd 4—298 of 333—89.5 percent

          Man Wd 10—392 of 431—91.0 percent

          Man Wd 11—260 of 298—87.2 percent

Senate District 20—Republican—4418 votes cast

          Joe Levasseur—Total—3250 votes—73.6 percent

          Goffstown—1599 of 2146—74.5 percent

          Man Wd 3—333 of 457—72.9 percent

          Man Wd 4—425 of 596—71.3 percent

          Man Wd 10—566 of 785—72.1 percent

          Man Wd 11—327 of 434—75.3 percent

MANCHESTER STATE REP DISTRICTS BY WARD

*(Note--three contested primaries, R in Wards 2 and 3, D in Ward 5)

(Three winners in each; except eight winners in 10, 11, 12)

Ward 1—Democrat—637 votes cast

          Goley—439—68.9 percent

          Ramsey—394—61.9 percent

          Dan Sullivan—379—59.5 percent

Ward 1—Republican—1476 votes cast

          Beaudoin—823—55.8 percent

          Mosca—748—50.7 percent

Ward 2—Democrat—436 votes cast

          Thomas—265—60.8 percent

          Thompson—261—59.9 percent

          Smith—242—55.5 percent

*Ward 2—Republican—1018 votes cast

          Hutchinson—515—50.6 percent

          DeJong—495—48.6 percent

          Ball—487—47.8 percent

          Evarts—230—22.6 percent

Ward 3—Democrat—256 votes cast

          Long—180—70.3 percent

          Jeudy—135—52.7 percent

          Brunelle—116—45.3 percent

Ward 3—Republican—457 votes cast

          Thibault—288—63.0 percent

          Cormiea—218—47.7 percent

          Savyon—204—44.6 percent

Ward 4—Democrat—333 votes cast

          Walsh—214—64.3 percent

          Levasseur—200—62.7 percent

          Barriere—163—48.9 percent

*Ward 4—Republican—596 votes cast

          Pepino—345—57.9 percent

          Souza—246—41.3 percent

          Shoults—230—38.6 percent

          Ghose—177—29.7 percent

*Ward 5—Democrat—306 votes cast

          *Rokas—174—56.9 percent

          Gimas—164—53.6 percent

          *Hebert—95—31.0 percent

          *Komi—88—28.8 percent

*Three incumbents. 2010 attendance—Komi 64%; Rojas 47%; Hebert 18%!

Ward 5—Republican—362 votes cast

          Olson—202—55.8 percent

          Champagne—201—55.5 percent

          Tarr—167—46.1 percent

Ward 6—Democrat—463 votes cast

          Baroody—329—71.1 percent

          Bergeron—291—62.9 percent

          Skilogianis—273—59.0 percent

Ward 6—Republican—1045 votes cast

          Infantine—751—71.9 percent

          Gagne—485—46.4 percent

Ward 7—Democrat—376 votes cast

          Pat Garrity—255—67.8 percent

          Haley—205—54.5 percent

          McDonald—195—51.9 percent

Ward 7—Republican—672 votes cast

          Cusson-Cail—421—62.6 percent

          Terrio—379—56.4 percent

          Cail—376—56.0 percent

Ward 8—Democrat—466 votes cast

          Tom Katsiantonis—285—61.2 percent

          Farley—256—54.9 percent

          Curran—214—45.9 percent

Ward 8—Republican—1042 votes cast

          Vaillancourt—590—56.6 percent

          Proulx—584—56.0 percent

Ward 9—Democrat—440 votes cast

          Shaw—282—64.1 percent

          Pilotte—249—56.6 percent

          Flurey—231—52.5 percent

Ward 9—Republican—711 votes cast

          Krochmal—411—57.8 percent

          Robert Barry—398—56.0 percent

          J. Gail Barry—368—51.8 percent

Wards 10, 11, 12—Democrat—1052 votes cast

          Boisvert—599—56.9 percent

          Backus—577—54.8 percent

          Bernier—553—52.6 percent

*George Katsiantonis—543—51.6 percent

          Brown—525—49.9 percent

          *Winters—514—48.9 percent

          Leary—497—47.2 percent

          George—486—46.2 percent

*Both incumbents; Winters had 100 percent attendance; Katsiantonis less than 13 percent attendance in 2010!!  No editorial comment needed!!

Wards 10, 11, 12—Republican—2064 votes cast

          Connie Soucy—1058—51.3 percent

          Messier—1051—50.9 percent

          Gonzalez—1008—48.8 percent

          Greazzo—991—48.0 percent

          Swank—897—43.4 percent

          Simmons—861—41.7 percent

          Bergevin—860—41.7 percent

          Beattie—832—40.3 percent

State Senate District 19--Democrat —1252 votes cast

(Derry Hampstead, Windham)

          St. Laurent—1252—77.0 percent

State Senate District 19—Republican—6010 votes cast

          Rausch—4332—72.1 percent

Rekindling THE “Live Free Or Die” Beacon

Like our country, New Hampshire is under siege and in a fight for its very survival. We are the last New England state that respects its citizens’ right to choose the wearing of seat belts and helmets, and the last one to resist a sales or income tax. We have always believed that low taxes were the result of low spending; low spending promoted small government; and small government guaranteed our personal freedoms.

In the past four years, however, the liberals in Concord have changed all of that. While New Hampshire has always maintained a balanced budget, deliberate overspending has created a potential $1 billion budget shortfall. While most states cut their budgets with the economic downturn, liberals and progressives in Concord, often maneuvering under the cover of political darkness, increased spending 27% in the last four years. 

Attempting to sustain their out-of-control spending, these same liberals increased the State’s debt 30%, added and increased nearly 100 new taxes and fees, borrowed on the State credit card to fund day-to-day expenses, and created an antibusiness job-killing environment. They attacked home schooling with burdensome regulations, and attacked family values by attempting “Transgender Bathroom” and “Assisted Suicide” legislation. Gay marriage became legal, and parents’ rights diminished when requirements to be informed of abortions being performed on their minor daughters were repealed. Through manipulation of the Legislative Rules Committee, the right to carry firearms in the State House was prohibited, and they even tried to restrict free speech the last day of the legislative session.

The good news is that the voters in New Hampshire can reverse this trend by electing conservatives who will return to New Hampshire its state sovereignty, proud heritage, and a government it can afford. Conservative votes can assure that New Hampshire stands as that fort on sovereignty hill, withstanding the siege of fiscal madness and national socialism, shining its “Live Free Or Die” beacon to the rest of the nation.

God bless,

Robert Mead
NH State Representative
Hillsborough District 4