Leading In A Close Iowa Race
Two new polls released this morning show Hillary Clinton holding a lead in the Hawkeye State, continuing to build on her momentum in the final days before the Iowa caucuses.
A new CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted December 26-30, shows Senator Clinton leading the field with 33 percent, followed by Senator Obama with 31 percent and Senator Edwards with 22 percent. According to the poll, Hillary has picked up three points since their last survey in mid-December. Furthermore, “[t]he poll indicates that Iowa Democrats believe Clinton has the best chance of winning in November and is the most experienced.” Read more about this poll at http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/12/31/iowa.poll/index.html .
A new Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll conducted December 28-31, shows that “Clinton, a New York senator, maintained a stable four-point edge over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, 30 percent to 26 percent, in the Democratic race. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards was in third at 25 percent, down one point overnight.” Read more about this poll at http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN2948587520080101?sp=true.
Also — a new Des Moines Register poll shows that among Democrats, Clinton leads 33 to 27 for Obama and 25 for Edwards. As Register columnist David Yepsen points out, had their pollsters used the 2004 turnout model, Hillary would lead by 29 to 27, figures in line with the other polls. Read the Clinton campaign’s full analysis of today’s Des Moines Register poll below.
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Register poll adopts unprecedented turnout model
by Mark Penn, Chief Strategist
12/31/2007 10:20 PM
UPDATE: Two new Iowa polls are out today. In the Zogby poll, it's Clinton 30, Obama 26, Edwards 25. In the CNN/Opinion Research poll, Hillary leads with 33 percent, Obama 31, Edwards 22.
The Des Moines Register poll adopts an unprecedented new turnout model for the caucuses, and its new poll is out of sync with the other polling done in the race.
When you look at Democrats who last time were 80% of the turnout, Hillary wins with that group by 6%, 33 to 27 for Obama and 25 for Edwards. And as David Yepsen points out, had their pollsters used the 2004 turnout model, Hillary would lead by 29 to 27, figures in line with the other polls.
The Des Moines Register Poll this time has 40% independent voters and 5% GOP voters in the poll when past independent participation has been 15% in 2000 and 19% in 2004, and the GOP has generally made up 1% of the vote. So they are depicting an unprecedented departure from historically established turnout patterns in the caucus. Under their model, only 55% of the caucus goers would be Democrats.
The other recent polls all show Hillary trending up and leading or within 1 point of the lead, and many show her moving up from a substantial deficit to tie and having the momentum in this race.
Insider Advantage, 12/28-12/29: Clinton 30, Edwards 29, Obama 22
Zogby, 12/27-12/30: Clinton 30, Edwards 26, Obama 26
Mason-Dixon, 12/26-12/18: Clinton 23, Edwards 24, Obama 22
Research 2000, 12/27-12/27: Clinton 28, Edwards 29, Obama 29
ARG, 12/26-12/28: Clinton 31, Edwards 24, Obama 24
So we do not see this poll as accurately reflecting the trends we are seeing in other polls, on our nightly canvasses or in our own polls, and voters should understand this is a very close race, and that their participation on caucus night could make all of the difference.