DSCC - Shaheen Leads Sununu by 17 Points

A just released poll conducted by the University of NewHampshire shows former Governor Jeanne Shaheen continues to lead John Sununu bya commanding 17 points, virtually unchanged from the 16 point leads she heldover Sununu in September and July 2007, the last two times the poll wasconducted. Shaheen holds a net favorable rating of 34 points. Sheleads Sununu among both male and female voters and in every age, income,education, and geographic group. She leads Sununu by 22 points amongindependents. As the UNH Survey Center Director said, Sununu “facesan uphill battle for reelection.”

Click here to view the full poll results: http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/gsp2008_winter_cong21108.pdf




By: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D.

Dante Scala, Ph.D.

February 11, 2008


DURHAM , NH – Former Governor Jeanne Shaheen continues to hold a sizeable lead over incumbent Republican John Sununu in the race for the U.S. Senate in New Hampshire.

These findings are based on the latest Granite State Poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Five hundred fifty-five (555) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by telephone between January 18 and January 27, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/-4.2 percent. Two hundred sixty-eight(268) respondents lived in New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District (margin of sampling error = +/-6.0%) and 287 lived in the 2nd District (margin of sampling error =+/-5.8%).

John Sununu, New Hampshire’s junior Senator, is up for reelection in 2008 in a rematch of his 2002 race with former Governor Jeanne Shaheen who he defeated by a 51% to 46% margin. But Sununu’s popularity in New Hampshire has dropped significantly since 2002 and his chances for reelection are currently doubtful. Currently, Sununu is viewed favorably by 46 percent of New Hampshire adults, 35 percent having an unfavorable opinion of him, 12 percent are neutral and 7 percent don’t know enough to say. Sununu’s net favorability rating is a only +11 percent, up from +3 percent in September. “Sununu seems to have stemmed his decline in favorability, but he still faces an uphill battle for reelection,” said Andrew Smith, Director of the UNH Survey Center .

Shaheen was quite popular during her years as Governor (1997-2003) and remains popular today. Currently, 57 percent of New Hampshire adults have a favorable opinion of Shaheen, 23 percent have an unfavorable opinion of her, 13 percent are neutral, and 7 percent don’t know enough about her to say. Shaheen’s net favorability rating is a strong +34%.

NH Senate Trial Heat

In a trial heat between Sununu and Shaheen, the former New Hampshire governor continues to get 54 percent of the vote with 37 percent going to Sununu,1 percent for some other candidate and only 7 percent are undecided. These numbers are unchanged since July. Shaheen runs strongest among Democrats, liberals, and non-religious voters. Sununu runs strongest among Republicans, conservatives, and regular church goers.

“Clearly New Hampshire’s political environment is much friendlier to Jeanne Shaheen in her second try for the U. S. Senate,” said UNH associate professor of political science Dante Scala. “The number of registered Democrats is almost even with the number of Republicans, and independents show no signs yet of moving back toward the Republican Party.

Thisrace may be frozen for much of the summer,” said Scala. “Especially if the fight for the Democratic presidential nomination goes to the convention in August.”


Matthew Miller

Communications Director

Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee