In Case You Missed It:
In case you missed it, an article entitled 'Hodes Falls Behind In Senate Race' ran on the front page of today's Union Leader: http://tinyurl.com/y24dtr3
The article is based on the most recent Rasmussen Survey results, showing that in a head-to-head matchup, Ovide Lamontagne defeats Paul Hodes.
A memo from Ovide's campaign pollster, Kellyanne Conway, is below, analyzing the recent Rasmussen numbers, and how they demonstrate a path to victory in November for the only conservative in NH's Senate race - Ovide Lamontagne.
To learn more, visit Ovide's website: www.ovide2010.com
To: Ovide for Senate 2010 Campaign Leadership
From: Kellyanne Conway, President, the polling company™, inc..
Date: April 12, 2010
Re: Survey Data Showing Ovide Beating Hodes
New polling data in New Hampshire
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/new_hampshire/election_2010_new_hampshire_senate suggests that the path to victory in the U.S. Senate race to succeed retiring Senator Judd Gregg is through a conservative, limited government candidate.
Ovide's surge to a 44%-39% lead over Democratic Congressman Paul Hodes coincides with the recent passage of the President's healthcare legislation, of which Ovide has been an outspoken and consistent critic, and which 53% of New Hampshire voters, according to the poll, say would be bad for the country.
This Rasmussen survey of 500 likely New Hampshire voters, conducted April 7, 2010, revealed an appreciable shift to the right as the backlash against the healthcare bill - and 14 months of record spending by Washington - continues. Voters indicated a net negative16-point intensity gap between the 27% who STRONGLY approved of Obama's performance matched up against the 43% who STRONGLY disapproved of the President's work.
This is a stinging indictment of the policies and performance of President Obama, considering he carried New Hampshire with 54% of the vote in 2008.
While it is true that the poll showed fellow Republicans Kelly Ayotte and Bill Binnie also beating Hodes, each of them is doing so having already expended considerable resources. Ovide's lead over Hodes, whom he keeps to under 40% in a general election match-up, is particularly impressive considering the fact that he's yet to spend a single dollar on paid media. In contrast, Ayotte was hand-picked by the establishment National Republican Senatorial Committee in Washington, DC, which has raised six figures for her race, while Binnie has reached far into his own deep pockets to finance his race. This suggests that a strong, conservative grassroots message taken directly to the people pays dividends.
Ovide can continue to capitalize on the unpopular healthcare legislation, which 58% of New Hampshire voters want to repeal. His natural affinity for the Tea Party agenda is also an asset in a state already legendary for its fiscal conservatism and strong base of Independent voters. Forty-nine percent of Granite Staters identify more with the average Tea Party member than with President Barack Obama. Ovide is a natural and proven ally for these concerns, having called for fiscal restraint and common sense solutions for more than two decades.
Another opportunity for Ovide to show contrast with his Republican primary counterparts emerged in the past few days with the announcement that U.S. Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens will retire at the end of the court term in June. Kelly Ayotte said she would have voted "Yes" to confirm liberal Justice Sonia Sotomayor, Obama's first nominee to the High Court, while Ovide has called for judicial restraint and fidelity to the Constitution. Ovide is enhanced in his positioning by being the only candidate in the race who took a position opposing then Judge Sotomayor.