NRSC - NEW NH POLL: All Four GOP Candidates Now Outpace Hodes

As a reminder, Paul Hodes has actually lost ground while running attack ads against his potential GOP opponent.

New Hampshire Senate: All Four GOP Candidates Now Outpace Hodes

Rasmussen Reports

July 14, 2010

Democratic hopeful Paul Hodes has lost ground this month with all four Republican candidates now leading him in the race for the U.S. Senate in New Hampshire. 

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Granite State finds that former state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte earns 49% of the vote to Hodes’ 37%. Businessman Bill Binnie leads Hodes, currently a U.S. congressman, by a similar 49% to 38% margin. Both these matchups are essentially unchanged from a month ago.

Last month, Ayotte posted a 50% to 38% lead over Hodes, while Binnie led the Democratic congressman 49% to 37%.

But now two other GOP contenders - businessman Jim Bender and attorney Ovide Lamontage - also have moved slightly ahead of Hodes. Bender chalks up 43% support to Hodes’ 39%. Lamontagne also picks up 43% of the vote to 40% support for the Democrat.

Since February, Hodes' support against the four GOP candidates has ranged from 35% to 44%, but except for February, he has never been closer than 10 points to either Ayotte or Binnie.

Ayotte hit a high to date of 50% support in surveys in April and May. This is the second survey in a row where Binnie has held his high to date of 49%.

In all four of the matchups, 13% to 18% of the state's voters either prefer some other candidate in the race or remain undecided.

Ayotte who has been the GOP frontrunner for months has come under fire for a mortgage fraud scandal that took place while she was state attorney general and for her initial public response to questions about that scandal. Hodes has made the issue the subject of a TV attack ad launched late last month. Republicans will pick their nominee in a September 14 primary. Hodes is unchallenged for the Democratic nomination. 

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in New Hampshire was conducted on July 12, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Male voters in the state favor the Republican in each matchup, while females are more evenly divided.  Voters not affiliated with either political party also support the GOP candidate in every case. 

Fifty-four percent (54%) of voters in the state at least somewhat favor repeal of the national health care bill which Hodes voted for as a member of the House.  Forty-four percent (44%) oppose repeal.  These findings are roughly in line with the national average and include 48% who Strongly Favor repeal and 34% who Strongly Oppose repeal.

New Hampshire voters who Strongly Favor repeal overwhelmingly support the Republicans, while Hodes earns similar support from the smaller group that Strongly Opposes repeal. 

Also consistent with findings nationally, 37% of voters in the state agree with the U.S. Department of Justice’s decision to challenge the new Arizona immigration law in court. Fifty-six percent (56%) disagree with that decision.

Roughly two-thirds of those who agree with the challenge back Hodes. The Republican candidates collect around 75% support from those who disagree with the challenge.

Twenty percent (20%) of New Hampshire voters have a Very Favorable opinion of Hodes, while 35% view him Very Unfavorably.

Ayotte is viewed Very Favorably by 20% and Very Unfavorably by 10%.


For Binnie, Very Favorables are 16% and Very Unfavorables 15%.

Lamontagne is seen Very Favorably by seven percent (7%), Very Unfavorably by 11%.

Nine percent (9%) regard Bender Very Favorably, while 13% see him Very Unfavorably.

At this stage of the campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the very favorable and very unfavorable figures more significant than the overall favorability totals.

Fifty-six percent (56%) of voters in the state favor an Arizona-like immigration law in their state, slightly lower than the level measured nationally. Thirty-four percent (34%) oppose such legislation in their state.

While 55% believe that new government spending in the stimulus plan did not create new jobs, voters are more evenly divided on whether the stimulus package helped or hurt the economy.  Thirty-five percent (35%) say it helped, and 37% say it hurt.  Nearly a quarter (24%) say it had no impact on the economy.

Only five percent (5%) of voters in New Hampshire rate the U.S. economy as good or excellent.  Forty-seven percent (47%) give the economy a poor rating.  At the same time, 33% say that economic conditions in the country are getting better, but slightly more (37%) feel they’re getting worse.

A solid majority (64%) of voters in the state believe cutting taxes is a better way to create jobs.  Twenty-one percent (21%) say increasing government spending is a better way to go.  Fifteen percent (15%) are not sure.

Seventy-two percent (72%) of voters in the state say the United States is currently in a recession.