NHDP - Are NH Republicans going to continue following Emperor Bill over a political cliff?

Are New Hampshire Republicans going to continue following Emperor Bill over a political cliff?   


Last night's special election was a loud and clear repudiation of Speaker O'Brien reckless agenda.  Right to work for less, defunding and destroying public education, the irresponsible House Republican budget, along with the rest of the Republican job killing agenda of striping away Granite Staters fundamental rights is at odds with New Hampshire values.


The Facts:   

  • Over 20% of voters in the district turned out, far exceeding the previous record for a special election of 17%.   
  • Of 400 House seats, this district is the 16th most Republican leaning one but Daler received nearly 60% of all the votes cast.
  • In New Boston (the largest town in the district) in 2006, Daler lost by 200 votes.  Last night she carried New Boston by the enormous margin of almost 100 votes.
  • The people of O'Brien's home town, Mont Vernon, who know him best voted 278 to 188 in support of Jen Daler.



What Republicans are Saying:


"The reality is that 90% of special elections are over on filing day. In most districts one party or the other has a big advantage in terms of voter registration.... Rarely does a seat change
hands between parties." Former NHGOP Chair Fergus Cullen [5/16/2011]


"If Peter Kucmas loses this election, the New Hampshire progressives will use this to say that O'Brien's conservative agenda has been rejected. Instead, let's help renew the mandate." Republican Liberty Caucus Chair Andrew Hemingway [5/17/2011]


"Make no mistake: This is a referendum on O'Brien's smart, effective leadership for New Hampshire." Republican Liberty Caucus Chair Andrew Hemingway [4/26/2011]


"It will be seen as a sign of weakness in terms of both ideology and ground game if the Republicans fail to keep this seat in their column." Pat Hynes's New Hampshire Journal [4/19/2011]



What the Press is Saying:


"A Blowout Victory" and "Tonight's special election win is sweet for the Democrats but a blow to O'Brien." Ashley Smith of TheLobbyNH.com [5/17/2011]


"A huge upset." WMUR [5/18/2011


"It's a big kick in the shin for O'Brien," Kevin Landrigan [5/17/2011]


"Going back to 2004, the district votes 7 percent more Republican than Democrat. Given that, how should we define victory for either side? First, it's inaccurate, a myth and a cop out to suggest that this race will be driven by local issues....The bottom line: Republicans can and should win by any margin possible, and if they don't, it will be a huge story." James Pindell [5/13/2011]


"This could confirm the Public Policy Polling that had Democrats gaining 20 percentage points in a blind match-up with a Republican legislative opponent." Kevin Landrigan [5/17/2011]


"In a New Hampshire special election, Democrats captured a strongly GOP-leaning state House seat in a special election campaign. The Nashua Telegraph: "In a contest that some regarded as a barometer of the state's current political climate, [Democrat Jennifer] Daler won all five towns in the district, topping [Republican Peter] Kucmas even in his home town of New Boston, which is also a traditional GOP stronghold." Politico's Morning Score [5/18/2011]



What O'Brien is Saying:


"Many will consider this race a proxy for the work being done by the Republicans in Concord." Speaker Bill O'Brien [4/17/2011]


"Even Speaker O'Brien says the election will serve as a referendum on him and a reaffirmation that voters meant what they meant in November."  WMUR [5/13/2011]