DNC: GOP Ground Game Bluff

http://assets.dstatic.org/pdfs/GOP_ground_game_bluff.pdf

Now that early voting has begun in many battleground states, Republicans are in full spin mode trying to overplay their hand and shape a narrative that puts them ahead of Democrats in the ground game contest.

To that end, the RNC released a misleading memo Tuesday on where the Presidential contest stands when it comes to early voting.

Like Mitt Romney’s tax plan – the early vote numbers from the GOP just don’t add up.

For example, when the GOP talks about early voting they are referring only to early vote in person and do not account for the fact that Democrats currently enjoy solid leads when early vote by mail is also included.  In Iowa data shows Democrats leading 45% to 30% in vote by mail requests, ahead by 18 points in returned mail ballots and outperforming Republicans by 15 points in total ballots cast.  Polling from NBC/WSJ and PPP show Democrats ahead 35 points and 29 points respectively among Iowans who have already cast a ballot either in person or by mail.

When the truth just isn’t in their favor, Republicans are choosing to make up numbers that fit the false narrative showing Mitt Romney ahead.  Republicans contend that Democrats have seen a 65% drop this year in our margin among Iowa early voters when compared to a similar period in 2008, resulting in a net swing for Republicans of 1.65%. 

Left unexplained by the GOP is how a 65% collapse in Democratic margin would result in only a meager 1.65 percentage point gain for Republicans.

But the GOP math isn’t just fuzzy in Iowa.  Public polling from several battleground contests all refute GOP assertions that they are outperforming Democrats in early voting.  Every single poll gauging support among those that have voted early and requested ballots in battleground states show President Obama and Democrats ahead as is evidenced by the charts below:

Polling Among People Who Say They Have Already Voted

(WI: Also Includes Those Who Say They Will Vote Early)

 

State

Pollster

Dates

Obama/Romney

Margin

FL

Mellman

Oct 18-21

50/45

+5

IA

PPP

Oct 18-19

64/35

+29

IA

NBC/WSJ/Marist

Oct 15-17

67/32

+35

NV

PPP

Oct 22-24

61/39

+22

NV

ARG

Oct 19-22

57/43

+14

OH

Time

Oct 22-23

60/30

+30

OH

PPP

Oct 18-20

66/34

+32

OH

CBS/Quinnipiac

Oct 17-20

54/39

+15

OH

SurveyUSA

Oct 20-22

58/39

+18

OH

Rasmussen

Oct 23

53/43

+10

WI

NBC/WSJ/Marist

Oct 15-17

64/35

+29

 

Total Ballots Cast (Mail and In-Person)

 

State

D

R

Difference

CO

120,429

126,026

R +5,597

FL

362,384

413,644

R +51,260

IA

169,162

113,576

D +55,586

MI*

258,572

129,679

D +128,893

NC

412,144

243,750

D +168,394

NV

92,248

70,752

D +21,496

OH*

408,788

355,388

D +53,400

VA*

91,468

76,434

D +15,034

WI*

45,734

19,157

D +26,577

Total

1,960,929

1,548,406

D +412,523

 

*Note: Voters in MI, OH, VA and WI do not register with a party when they register to vote.  ‘D’ and ‘R’ in these states are defined as voters from precincts won by Obama/GOP in 2008.

 

Absentee Ballot Requests

 

State

D

R

Difference

CO

692,288

701,317

R +9,029

FL

1,008,962

1,046,119

R +37,157

IA

192,821

129,771

D +63,050

MI*

596,206

282,780

D +313,426

NC

58,185

105,780

R +47,595

NV

29,344

29,106

D +238

OH*

624,078

615,075

D +9,003

VA*

82,426

75,900

D +6,526

WI*

84,069

37,386

D +46,683

Total

3,368,379

3,023,234

D +345,145

 

*Note: Voters in MI, OH, VA and WI do not register with a party when they register to vote.  ‘D’ and ‘R’ in these states are defined as voters from precincts won by Obama/GOP in 2008.

 

CO 

-      Among non-midterm voters, Democrats lead Republicans 33% to 23% in mail ballot requests (211,069 to 145,021), 37% to 28% in mail ballots cast (18,678 to 13,857), 36% to 28% in in-person ballots cast (2,884 to 2,294) and 37% to 28% in total ballots cast (21,562 to 16,151)

 

FL 

-      The GOP’s traditional absentee ballot request advantage is down 86% compared with this time four years ago from 261,479 to just 37,157– a Democratic gain of D +224,322 ballots

-      Note that in 2008, Democrats won Florida by 3 points (D 51.0 to R 48.2)

 

IA 

-      Democrats lead Republicans in early voting: D 169,162 (47%) vs. R 113,576 (32%)

-      Democrats’ lead is up 14% compared with this time four years ago (increased from D +48,581 to D +55,586)

-      Democrats lead Republicans on every metric and with every group – ballots requested, ballots cast, in-person, mail, midterm voters and non-midterm voters

-      Note that in 2008, Democrats won Iowa by 9.5 points (D 53.9 to R 44.4)

 

MI

 

-      Precincts that voted for Obama in 2008 are out-voting Republican precincts by a 67% to 33% margin (D 258,572 vs. R 129,679)

-      In ballot requests, Obama precincts lead GOP precincts 68% to 32% (D 596,206 to R 282,780)

 

NC

-      Democrats lead Republicans 51% to 30% in early voting (D 412,144 to R 243,750)

 

NV

-      Democrats lead Republicans on every metric: mail ballots requested (D 29,344 to R 29,106), mail ballots returned (D 12,861 to R 12,294), in-person early voting (D 79,387 to R 58,458) and total ballots cast (D 92,248 to R 70,752)

 

OH

-      There is no party registration in Ohio, but counties and precincts that Obama won in 2008 are voting early at a higher rate than GOP counties and precincts

-      In counties that Obama won in 2008, 10% of registered voters have already cast ballots.  In GOP counties, only 7% of registered voters have cast ballots

-      Voters from precincts that voted for Obama in 2008 have cast 408,788 ballots (53%) in 2012 compared with just 355,388 ballots (47%) from GOP precincts

-      The difference (D +53,400) is 80% higher than the difference at this time four years ago (D +29,706)

 

VA

-      There is no party registration in Virginia, but counties and precincts that Obama won in 2008 are voting early at a higher rate than GOP counties and precincts

-      In counties that Obama won in 2008, 3.4% of registered voters have already voted.  In GOP counties, only 2.8% of registered voters have voted so far

-      Obama precincts have cast 91,468 ballots (54%) to date compared with just 76,434 (46%) for GOP precincts

 

Even for a campaign that said it wouldn’t be dictated to by facts, the RNC is hard-pressed in making a credible case that they are winning the ground war in this election.

From the very beginning of this campaign, Democrats have made clear we would invest heavily in standing up the largest grassroots effort in history to mobilize our supporters to the polls and lay out the strong contrast between President Obama’s vision for a stronger middle class and the top down failed economic policies of the past Republicans and Mitt Romney want to return the country too.

We understood that our success resided in grassroots people power – not the special interest dominated campaign of our opponents.  With just 12 days to go until Election Day our investment is paying off and the American people are choosing to support President Obama’s vision for a stronger middle class built from the middle out and not the top down.