DNC: GOP Ground Game Bluff

http://assets.dstatic.org/pdfs/GOP_ground_game_bluff.pdf

Now that early voting has begun in many battleground states, Republicans are in full spin mode trying to overplay their hand and shape a narrative that puts them ahead of Democrats in the ground game contest.

To that end, the RNC released a misleading memo Tuesday on where the Presidential contest stands when it comes to early voting.

Like Mitt Romney’s tax plan – the early vote numbers from the GOP just don’t add up.

For example, when the GOP talks about early voting they are referring only to early vote in person and do not account for the fact that Democrats currently enjoy solid leads when early vote by mail is also included.  In Iowa data shows Democrats leading 45% to 30% in vote by mail requests, ahead by 18 points in returned mail ballots and outperforming Republicans by 15 points in total ballots cast.  Polling from NBC/WSJ and PPP show Democrats ahead 35 points and 29 points respectively among Iowans who have already cast a ballot either in person or by mail.

When the truth just isn’t in their favor, Republicans are choosing to make up numbers that fit the false narrative showing Mitt Romney ahead.  Republicans contend that Democrats have seen a 65% drop this year in our margin among Iowa early voters when compared to a similar period in 2008, resulting in a net swing for Republicans of 1.65%. 

Left unexplained by the GOP is how a 65% collapse in Democratic margin would result in only a meager 1.65 percentage point gain for Republicans.

But the GOP math isn’t just fuzzy in Iowa.  Public polling from several battleground contests all refute GOP assertions that they are outperforming Democrats in early voting.  Every single poll gauging support among those that have voted early and requested ballots in battleground states show President Obama and Democrats ahead as is evidenced by the charts below:

Polling Among People Who Say They Have Already Voted

(WI: Also Includes Those Who Say They Will Vote Early)

State	Pollster	Dates	Obama/Romney	Margin
FL	Mellman	Oct 18-21	50/45	+5
IA	PPP	Oct 18-19	64/35	+29
IA	NBC/WSJ/Marist	Oct 15-17	67/32	+35
NV	PPP	Oct 22-24	61/39	+22
NV	ARG	Oct 19-22	57/43	+14
OH	Time	Oct 22-23	60/30	+30
OH	PPP	Oct 18-20	66/34	+32
OH	CBS/Quinnipiac	Oct 17-20	54/39	+15
OH	SurveyUSA	Oct 20-22	58/39	+18
OH	Rasmussen	Oct 23	53/43	+10
WI	NBC/WSJ/Marist	Oct 15-17	64/35	+29

Total Ballots Cast (Mail and In-Person)

State	D	R	Difference
CO	120,429	126,026	R +5,597
FL	362,384	413,644	R +51,260
IA	169,162	113,576	D +55,586
MI*	258,572	129,679	D +128,893
NC	412,144	243,750	D +168,394
NV	92,248	70,752	D +21,496
OH*	408,788	355,388	D +53,400
VA*	91,468	76,434	D +15,034
WI*	45,734	19,157	D +26,577
Total	1,960,929	1,548,406	D +412,523

*Note: Voters in MI, OH, VA and WI do not register with a party when they register to vote.  ‘D’ and ‘R’ in these states are defined as voters from precincts won by Obama/GOP in 2008.

Absentee Ballot Requests

State	D	R	Difference
CO	692,288	701,317	R +9,029
FL	1,008,962	1,046,119	R +37,157
IA	192,821	129,771	D +63,050
MI*	596,206	282,780	D +313,426
NC	58,185	105,780	R +47,595
NV	29,344	29,106	D +238
OH*	624,078	615,075	D +9,003
VA*	82,426	75,900	D +6,526
WI*	84,069	37,386	D +46,683
Total	3,368,379	3,023,234	D +345,145

*Note: Voters in MI, OH, VA and WI do not register with a party when they register to vote.  ‘D’ and ‘R’ in these states are defined as voters from precincts won by Obama/GOP in 2008.

CO 

-      Among non-midterm voters, Democrats lead Republicans 33% to 23% in mail ballot requests (211,069 to 145,021), 37% to 28% in mail ballots cast (18,678 to 13,857), 36% to 28% in in-person ballots cast (2,884 to 2,294) and 37% to 28% in total ballots cast (21,562 to 16,151)

FL 

-      The GOP’s traditional absentee ballot request advantage is down 86% compared with this time four years ago from 261,479 to just 37,157– a Democratic gain of D +224,322 ballots

-      Note that in 2008, Democrats won Florida by 3 points (D 51.0 to R 48.2)

IA 

-      Democrats lead Republicans in early voting: D 169,162 (47%) vs. R 113,576 (32%)

-      Democrats’ lead is up 14% compared with this time four years ago (increased from D +48,581 to D +55,586)

-      Democrats lead Republicans on every metric and with every group – ballots requested, ballots cast, in-person, mail, midterm voters and non-midterm voters

-      Note that in 2008, Democrats won Iowa by 9.5 points (D 53.9 to R 44.4)

MI

-      Precincts that voted for Obama in 2008 are out-voting Republican precincts by a 67% to 33% margin (D 258,572 vs. R 129,679)

-      In ballot requests, Obama precincts lead GOP precincts 68% to 32% (D 596,206 to R 282,780)

NC

-      Democrats lead Republicans 51% to 30% in early voting (D 412,144 to R 243,750)

NV

-      Democrats lead Republicans on every metric: mail ballots requested (D 29,344 to R 29,106), mail ballots returned (D 12,861 to R 12,294), in-person early voting (D 79,387 to R 58,458) and total ballots cast (D 92,248 to R 70,752)

OH

-      There is no party registration in Ohio, but counties and precincts that Obama won in 2008 are voting early at a higher rate than GOP counties and precincts

-      In counties that Obama won in 2008, 10% of registered voters have already cast ballots.  In GOP counties, only 7% of registered voters have cast ballots

-      Voters from precincts that voted for Obama in 2008 have cast 408,788 ballots (53%) in 2012 compared with just 355,388 ballots (47%) from GOP precincts

-      The difference (D +53,400) is 80% higher than the difference at this time four years ago (D +29,706)

VA

-      There is no party registration in Virginia, but counties and precincts that Obama won in 2008 are voting early at a higher rate than GOP counties and precincts

-      In counties that Obama won in 2008, 3.4% of registered voters have already voted.  In GOP counties, only 2.8% of registered voters have voted so far

-      Obama precincts have cast 91,468 ballots (54%) to date compared with just 76,434 (46%) for GOP precincts

Even for a campaign that said it wouldn’t be dictated to by facts, the RNC is hard-pressed in making a credible case that they are winning the ground war in this election.

From the very beginning of this campaign, Democrats have made clear we would invest heavily in standing up the largest grassroots effort in history to mobilize our supporters to the polls and lay out the strong contrast between President Obama’s vision for a stronger middle class and the top down failed economic policies of the past Republicans and Mitt Romney want to return the country too.

We understood that our success resided in grassroots people power – not the special interest dominated campaign of our opponents.  With just 12 days to go until Election Day our investment is paying off and the American people are choosing to support President Obama’s vision for a stronger middle class built from the middle out and not the top down.