Both of New Hampshire's House races look like toss ups for this fall, continuing the trend of competitiveness they've shown over the last six years.
Democrats' better chance for a pick up appears to be in the 1st Congressional District, where Carol Shea-Porter leads Republican incumbent Frank Guinta 47-43 in a rematch of their 2010 contest. That's a big shift from when PPP polled the race last summer and found Guinta ahead by a 48-41 margin. Guinta's become increasingly unpopular as his first term has progressed, going from a 39/38 approval rating last July to now a 36/44 one.
Guinta actually leads with independents by a 44-40 margin, but Democrats (87%) are much more committed to voting for Shea-Porter at this point than Republicans (78%) are to Guinta. Providing another data point on the GOP's current struggles with women, Shea-Porter leads 55-36 with that group of voters.
Basically nothing's changed in the 2nd District since PPP polled there last summer. Charlie Bass and Ann McLane Kuster are tied at 42%. On the previous survey Bass had a 43-42 advantage.
Bass continues to be plagued by atrocious approval ratings, with only 34% of voters happy with the job he's doing to 49% who disapprove. The reason Bass is running even with Kuster despite his unpopularity is that while only 62% of GOP voters give him good marks, 79% still say they would vote for him in the general election.
Kuster has good favorability numbers with 35% of voters rating her favorably to 24% with a negative opinion. 16% of Democrats are undecided in the contest compared to only 9% of Republicans who are, so there's reason to think she may have more room for growth than Bass but at any rate this looks like a very close race.
The old adage goes that voters hate Congress, but like their Congressman. In New Hampshire though they don't appear to like either. Democrats have a pretty good chance at winning back the two seats they lost there in 2010 this fall.
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