Public Policy Polling Media Alert: Paul, Clinton early leaders in New Hampshire

PPP's new poll of New Hampshire Republicans about 2016 finds momentum on Rand Paul's side. He leads the potential field with 28% to 25% for Marco Rubio, 14% for Chris Christie, 7% for Jeb Bush and Paul Ryan, 4% for Rick Santorum, 3% for Susana Martinez, and 1% each for Rick Perry and Bobby Jindal.

Paul has seen a huge increase in his support from when PPP last looked at New Hampshire in November, from 4% then to his current 28% standing. Also on the rise is Rubio who's gone up 11 points from 14% to 25%. On the down swing are Christie who's dropped 7 points from 21% and the lead then to 14% and 3rd place now, Bush who's dropped 4 points from 11% to 7%, and Ryan who's dropped 3 points from 10% to 7%.

Paul is benefiting from his appeal to independent voters. Rubio leads him 29/26 among voters who are actually registered as Republicans, but Paul's at 32% with independents to 19% for Christie and 17% for Rubio. Paul also leads Rubio with men (33/22) and younger voters (35/26), while Rubio has the upper hand with women (27/22) and seniors (35/14).

On the Democratic side desire for Hillary Clinton to be the party nominee next year has just increased even further from November. Then 60% of Democrats supported her, now that's up to 68% who want her as their candidate to 12% for Joe Biden, 5% for Elizabeth Warren, 3% for Andrew Cuomo, and 2% for Deval Patrick with nobody else over 1%. Clinton has over 50% support from men and women, young, middle aged, and old voters, 'very liberal,' 'somewhat liberal,' and 'moderate' voters, and both Democrats and independents.

If Clinton doesn't run there's 44% support for Biden, followed by Warren at 12% and Patrick and Cuomo at 9% with no one else over 2%. If Clinton and Biden both sit it out 30% of Democrats say they don't know who they would want as their candidate with Cuomo at 23%, Warren at 22%, Patrick at 17%, Kirsten Gillibrand at 4%, Martin O'Malley at 2%, and Brian Schweitzer and Mark Warner each at 1%.

Clinton's so strong in New Hampshire that early indications are she could take it off the board as a swing state in the general election if she runs. She leads Paul 52/41 and Rubio 52/38 in hypothetical match ups, holding a double digit lead with independents and getting double digit support from Republicans in both potential match ups.

This analysis is also available on our website:


A press release and full crosstabs are attached-