Public Policy Polling Media Alert: Shaheen, Hassan lead for reelection

PPP's newest New Hampshire poll finds Jeanne Shaheen in a pretty strong long as Scott Brown doesn't come across the border to challenge her.

Shaheen has a 49/42 approval rating and leads all of her New Hampshire based potential challengers by double digits. She's up 10 on Charlie Bass at 51/41, 17 on Jim Rubens at 50/33, 19 on Karen Testerman at 50/31, and 22 on Dan Innis at 52/30. She also leads former New Hampshire Senator/Florida Senate candidate Bob Smith 51/35.

The only Republican who really comes close to Shaheen is Brown, who she leads just 48/44. Brown at least breaks even on his favorability in the state at 40%, good numbers in comparison to for instance Bass who's at 28/47. At any rate it looks like Shaheen is in a good place barring the unlikely Brown candidacy.

In a stronger position than Shaheen though is Governor Maggie Hassan. She has a 51/33 approval rating, that's little different from 50/33 in April. That indicates her numbers haven't worn off after the honeymoon from her first getting into office. In addition to strong popularity with Democrats, Hassan's at 50/33 with independents and gets 17% crossover support from Republicans compared to Shaheen's 12%.

Hassan leads her B list set of potential GOP opponents by anywhere from 15 to 17 points. She's up 49/34 on Brad Cook, 49/33 on Chuck Morse, and 49/32 on both George Lambert and Andy Sanborn. None of those Republicans have greater than 31% name recognition so they certainly have room to grow, but Hassan is pushing up pretty closer to that 50% mark.

Kelly Ayotte's approval rating this month is 41/45, pretty similar to the 44/46 we found in the immediate aftermath of her unpopular vote against Manchin/Toomey back in April. 46% of voters in the state say Ayotte's vote makes it less likely they'll vote to reelect her the next time she's up, compared to only 18% who consider it to be a positive. That's a reflection of 78/15 support for expanded background checks in the state, including 93% of Democrats, 74% of independents, and 66% of Republicans. Ayotte certainly won't be a pushover though. In a hypothetical contest with the popular Governor Hassan she leads 45/44.

Other notes from New Hampshire:

-Barack Obama's approval rating has dropped a net 10 points in the state compared to April, from +6 then at 52/46 to -4 now at 46/50. His decline with independents- from 52/46 to 44/50- pretty well mirrors the overall shift.

-Support for gay marriage in the state is pretty steady at 55/32. Only 17% of voters say its being legal there has had a negative impact on their lives with 22% saying it's been a positive and 61% saying it hasn't affected them one way or the other.

-Reflecting how closely divided the state is overall right now, 44% of voters say they'd vote Democratic if there was a legislative election today to 43% who'd vote Republican. Independents go Democratic by a similarly close 37/36 spread.

This analysis is also available on our website:


I’m not attaching the full results because the file is so large, but you can see those here: