PPP's newest look ahead to the 2016 Presidential race in New Hampshire finds no clear leader. Rand Paul's at 20% to 19% for Chris Christie, 14% for Jeb Bush, 12% for Kelly Ayotte, 10% for Ted Cruz, 7% for Marco Rubio and Paul Ryan, 3% for Bobby Jindal, and 2% for Rick Santorum.
The field we used for this poll is not exactly the same as April- Ayotte and Cruz replaced Susana Martinez and Rick Perry, who had received little support. But at any rate it's clear Marco Rubio has fallen precipitously, from 25% then to his current 7% standing. Paul's dropped by 8 points as well, perhaps because the kind of voters who are attracted to him might also be attracted to Cruz. The potential candidates on the rise are Christie (from 14% to 19%) and Bush (from 7% to 14%).
Paul has a pretty big lead with conservatives, getting 24% to 15% for Bush, 13% for Cruz, 11% for Christie, and 10% for Ayotte. Christie keeps it close overall though because he's dominant with moderates, getting 37% to 16% for Paul and 15% for Ayotte. That goes further in New Hampshire than it would in a lot of other Republican primaries since the open nature of the primary means that more than 40% of voters are independents.
There are two other demographic splits in the poll- Paul leads Christie 25/17 with men, while Christie gets 21% of women to 15% each for Paul and Bush. And Christie leads with seniors at 19% to 17% for Bush and 16% for Paul, while Paul has the advantage with younger voters at 21% to 17% for Christie.
On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton remains an overwhelming favorite with 57% to 12% for Joe Biden, 11% for Elizabeth Warren, 4% for Cory Booker, 2% for Andrew Cuomo, 1% each for Kirsten Gillibrand and Mark Warner, and less than 1% each for Martin O'Malley and Brian Schweitzer. Although Clinton is certainly still in control if she wants the nomination, she's down 11 points from a 68% standing in April. Much of that movement is because Warren has more than doubled her support from 5% then to 11% now.
In a field without Clinton, Biden leads with 36% to 20% for Warren, 9% for Booker, 7% for Cuomo, and 1% each for Gillibrand, Schweitzer, O'Malley, and Warner. Biden's lead over Warren has been chopped in half from 32 points on our April poll- at that time he led 44/12 in a Hillary free field.
Warren is now the clear leader in a field without either Clinton or Biden. She gets 33% to 14% for Cuomo, 12% for Booker, 5% for Gillibrand, 4% for O'Malley, 2% for Warner, and 1% for Schweitzer. On the previous poll Cuomo had 23% and Warren 22% on this iteration of the horse race, but it also included Deval Patrick getting 17% and with him out of the mix the 'Massachusetts' vote is no longer getting split.
When it comes to the general election Hillary Clinton leads all the Republicans in head to heads. There's two pretty clear tiers of competitiveness: Chris Christie and everyone else. Christie comes within 4 points of Clinton, trailing 43/39. Everyone else we tested trails her by somewhere in the 8-12 point range: 50/42 against Ayotte, 49/40 against Bush, 50/41 against Ryan, 51/41 against Paul, and 50/38 against Cruz.
This analysis is also available on our website:
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