Garcia For Congress (CD2) - State of the Garcia race, 25 days out



WMUR/UNH’s most recent poll shows Marilinda Garcia four points ahead of Ann Kuster in New Hampshire’s Second Congressional District.

This, and all polls, should be taken with a grain of salt. Polls go up and down. But, these numbers do reinforce what our team has already seen in our internal numbers and felt in our respective guts while with Mari on the campaign trail: this race is Marilinda’s to win.

Marilinda’s race has been a remarkable one—anything but ordinary. In April, the common belief—both in New Hampshire and Washington—was that Marilinda was not ready for primetime, and would lose the primary election. “She’s a smart girl and will be a great candidate next time around” was the common refrain. New Hampshire Democrats openly mocked her age, looks, and even her shoes (I assure you, she has perfectly normal shoes).

We bit our tongues and looked forward to the moment when these same folks would realize that they had severely underestimated this highly intelligent and accomplished young woman. Luckily for us, this happened sooner rather than later, and Marilinda won her primary overwhelmingly against two formidable and talented Republican opponents.

Now, 25 days removed from November 4, Marilinda has a very real shot at upsetting incumbent Ann Kuster and heading to Washington, D.C. to represent New Hampshire’s 2nd District. Even Kuster’s own campaign manager yesterday sent an alarmed email to Kuster’s supporters saying that the incumbent’s lead has been “erased” and that the race is now “a pure toss up and a statistical dead heat."

This too, is remarkable—but for reasons you may not be aware of. We crunched the numbers today, and it appears that Marilinda is being outspent on television by a ratio of 4 to 1. In fact, since the beginning of October, she is being outspent on television by a ratio of no less than 10 to 1! 

A gap of this magnitude typically spells doom for whichever candidate is being so vastly outspent in a competitive seat, but it seems as if the more money that Kuster and her allies spend attempting to demonize Marilinda, the better Marilinda does.  And boy, have they been relentless!

You see, Ann Kuster and Nancy Pelosi’s Far Left wing of the Democratic Party sees Marilinda as an existential threat. They know that a young, female, Hispanic with an independent voice joining the ranks of Congress and advocating for New Hampshire’s values on a national level will undermine their entire playbook. It will become more difficult for them to effectively divide the American people, and paint Republicans as hopeless, old fashioned, sexist…racists.

New Hampshire voters are too smart for these tricks. They seem to be rejecting “Single Issue Annie’s” desperate attempt to fool them into thinking that Marilinda is waging some kind of a “War on Women.”

Today, from where I sit in Concord, it seems that another upset is brewing in New Hampshire’s Second District.  For years we have heard that voters are tired of politics-as-usual and that they’ve seen enough negative, misleading, smear-ads meant to scare voters when they should be educating them. Maybe now in 2014, New Hampshire will be first in the nation to say “No—we will not tolerate this any longer. We are tired of politics as usual! We are ready to try something new.”

Let’s not kid ourselves.  A relentless, well-funded campaign like Ann Kuster’s against Marilinda will take its toll.  While we do not need to outspend Ann Kuster and her allies, we do have to close the gap substantially.  And we will.

As our own TV ads ramp up in coming weeks, we will need your help to make sure as many Granite Staters see them as possible. I hope you will consider contributing to the cause of ensuring “opportunity for all” the people of New Hampshire and America. Each of you has something different to offer. Only you know what it is. Marilinda needs you.