PPP's final polls for the Senate and Governor in Georgia, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Kansas, and Iowa find close races pretty much across the board.
In Georgia David Perdue leads Michelle Nunn 46/45 with Libertarian Amanda Swafford getting 5%. It still looks like this race is headed to a runoff. Our polls over the last month have consistently found a close race with Perdue up 2, then tied, then tied again, and now up 1. The candidates have almost identical favorability ratings with Nunn at 45/41 and Perdue at 43/41.
In the Governor's race Nathan Deal appears to have a better shot at an outright victory tomorrow night. Deal is polling at 47% to 43% for Jason Carter, with Libertarian Andrew Hunt getting 4%. Libertarian candidates often poll better ahead of the election than they actually end up doing on election day- if that's the case here and Deal can hold onto his 4 point advantage he will win without a runoff.
There's not a ton of hope for Democrats further down the ballot in Georgia. Republicans lead for all the rest of the statewide offices by anywhere from 6 to 14 points.
In the North Carolina Senate race Kay Hagan leads Thom Tillis 46/44, with Libertarian Sean Haugh at 5%. PPP has polled this contest four times over the last two weeks and found Hagan leading by 3, 1, 1, and now 2. When you take Haugh out of the picture Hagan still leads Tillis by 2 points at 48/46- he is not really playing the spoiler role now that he was earlier in the campaign. This continues to be a race featuring two unpopular candidates, but as has been the case all year Tillis' numbers are worse than Hagan's. Her approval is 41/49, his favorability is 36/48.
In New Hampshire Jeanne Shaheen leads Scott Brown 49/47. Shaheen's support has not budged from the 49-50% mark in PPP's polling since August. She's led 50/44, 50/44, 49/45, 49/47, and now 49/47 again. Brown's support has crept up as undecideds have come off the fence, but if Shaheen continues to hold onto the level of support she's had it should be enough to give her a narrow victory. Brown's been plagued by poor favorability numbers throughout the campaign and on this final poll he's still under water at 44/46. The race for Governor in New Hampshire has tightened a little bit, but Maggie Hassan still has a relatively sold lead over Walt Havenstein at 51/45.
Both of the races in Kansas couldn't be much closer. Paul Davis leads Sam Brownback 46/45 and Greg Orman leads Pat Roberts 47/46. What's interesting is that even though the top of the ticket is incredibly competitive, everything else in Kansas pretty much looks like a normal election- Secretary of State Kris Kobach has a 5 point advantage and beyond that the Republican candidates for down ballot offices lead by 11 points for Insurance Commissioner, 27 points for Attorney General, and 28 points for Treasurer, pretty normal sorts of numbers for elections in Kansas.
It continues to be Brownback and Roberts' unique unpopularity that's making their races so competitive. Brownback has a 37/54 approval spread, and Roberts' is 34/54. Usually politicians with those kinds of approval ratings are doomed for reelection but Kansas' deep red hue is still giving them a shot.
Finally in Iowa we find Joni Ernst with a 48/45 advantage over Bruce Braley. She has a narrowly positive favorability rating at 46/45, while Braley's is slightly negative at 42/45. Terry Branstad continues to lead comfortably for reelection at 51/40 over Jack Hatch. Down ballot Democrats have big leads for Treasurer and Attorney General, with the Republican up big for Secretary of Agriculture. The races for Auditor and Secretary of State are closer. Republican Mary Mossiman leads 46/41 for the former, while Democrat Brad Anderson has moved into the lead for Secretary of State at 44/38 over Paul Pate.
This analysis is also available on our website:
I’m not attaching the full results because the file is so large, but you can see those here: