To: Interested Parties
From: Kiley &Company
Re: Results of Survey on New Hampshire Senate Race
Date: September 15, 2014
On Sept. 9, 10 and 11, Kiley & Company interviewed a representative sample of 600 New Hampshire voters likely to cast ballots in the November election. Respondents were randomly selected from a NH voter file and were interviewed on both landlines and cell phones. The party breakdown of the sample is: 30% Repub; 27% Dem; and 43% Ind/Other. The margin of error for these results is +/- 4%.
Jeanne Shaheen is maintaining her majority-level lead over Scott Brown.
– Shaheen leads Brown, 51% to 43% – the same eight-point lead we saw in our early September survey. (50% to 42%)
– Shaheen leads by 24 points among women; Brown leads by 10 points among men.
– Shaheen leads, 91% to 7%, among Democrats and by 50% to 42% among Independents. Brown leads, 78% to 16%, among Republicans.
Shaheen’s ratings are positive, while Brown’s are negative.
– Shaheen’s ratings are 50-45, compared to Brown’s 38-51.
– Among women, Shaheen’s ratings are +18 and Brown’s are -24.
Shaheen’s biggest margins: protecting women; and being committed to NH.
– In direct comparisons on key traits, Shaheen is overwhelmingly seen as the better choice on: protecting the rights of women (+42) and being committed to New Hampshire (+37).
– Shaheen is ahead on all other positive attributes, including: will protect Medicare/SS (+18); really cares about people like me (+18); and is someone I can trust (+15).
– Brown’s only margin over Shaheen is on a negative dimension: being too close to wealthy special interests (-24).