Havenstein's "Plan" Distorts Job Creation Numbers in Attempt to Mislead Voters; Hides Fact that NH is Already on Pace to Create 25,000 Private Sector Jobs in Two and a Half Years
Manchester, NH – Following Labor Day, failed CEO Walt Havenstein needs to explain to New Hampshire workers why he fudged the job numbers in his economic “plan.” Havenstein's so-called "plan" promises to create25,000 private sector jobs in two and a half years. But by using misleading numbers to calculate the current rate of job-creation, Havenstein tries to hide the fact that New Hampshire's economy is already on pace to create 25,000 jobs in the same amount of time.
Though Havenstein's "plan" uses misleading and unsound methodology to claim that New Hampshire created 4,500 jobs over the past year, an honest accounting reveals that New Hampshire's economy actually created 10,400 private sector jobs between June 2013 and June 2014.
"It should come as no surprise that Havenstein botched his own economic 'plan' given that as CEO of SAIC, his last attempt to implement a 'plan' drove the company into the ground, as SAIC lost millions of dollars and thousands of jobs,” said New Hampshire Democratic Party Deputy Communications Director Bryan Lesswing. “The truth is that under Governor Hassan's leadership, New Hampshire's job-creators are already on pace to hit Havenstein's targets. Havenstein's Koch Brothers 'plan' would just pad the profits of multi-national corporations while undermining our economic progress and hurting New Hampshire's middle class families and small businesses."
A closer look at the numbers behind Havenstein’s “plan” reveals a misleading and unsound methodology. Havenstein not only cherry-picked seasonally-adjusted jobs number to calculate New Hampshire’s current rate of job creation, but he also incorporates government job losses to drive the number down to his claimed 4,500 figure.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ own guidance, “annual average estimates are calculated from the not seasonally adjusted data series.” Meaning the most accurate number of private sector jobs created from June 2013 to June 2014 is 10,400 (non-seasonally adjusted, non-government jobs). By this measure, New Hampshire’s economy is already on pace to exceed Walt's target in the same amount of time.
The revelations over Havenstein’s misleading and unsound methodology come as criticism of his “plan” mounts.
An editorial in today's Concord Monitor notes, “Havenstein, if elected, would push to lower the state’s Business Profits Tax from 8.5 percent to 7.4 percent, something that he magically believes would create 25,000 new jobs. He offers no evidence to support that belief, and history suggests it’s misplaced."
In a fact check of Havenstein’s“plan,” the New Hampshire Fiscal Policy Institute points out that the business tax giveaways in Havenstein’s so-called “plan” would “reduce tax revenue by as much as $90 million per biennium.” And as NHFPI notes, “Business tax cuts, if not offset by increases in other taxes, will lead to reductions in the public services on which both residents and businesses rely.”
The Union Leader’s Garry Rayno also highlighted how Walt’s economic “plan” to lower the Business Profits Tax would largely benefit multi-national companies, while not helping New Hampshire small businesses and local job creators.
And in a Nashua Telegraph Op-Ed, Mark Connolly described Havenstein’s “plan” as, “more slogan than reality” and possessing “no basis in economic reality,” likening it to GOP presidential candidate Herman Cain’s failed “9-9-9” idea.
For full New Hampshire employment numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics see below or here.