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Entries in Iowa (20)

Monday
Nov052012

Public Policy Polling Media Alert: Obama leads by 2 in Iowa and New Hampshire

PPP's final polls of the 2012 election cycle in Iowa and New Hampshire find Barack Obama with identical 50-48 leads. These small advantages for Obama are consistent with what PPP's found since the first Presidential debate- 5 Iowa polls have produced an average Obama lead of 1.8 points and 3 New Hampshire polls have produced an average Obama lead of a single point.

In Iowa Obama's already built up a large lead among people who participated in the early voting period, 61/39. Romney's up 56/41 with people planning to cast their ballots on election day but he'll need to win by an even wider margin than that if he's going to take the state.

Obama's leading in Iowa thanks particularly to strong support from independents (51/43) and women (52/46). He trails 53/45 with seniors but is winning with every other age group.

In New Hampshire the candidates are tied with independents but Obama has the slight overall advantage because he's winning over 9% of Republicans while just 4% of Democrats are planning to vote for Romney. Just as in Iowa Obama's relying on strong support from women (54/45) and winning across most of the age spectrum.

Democrat Maggie Hassan is looking like the favorite to be the next Governor of New Hampshire. For the second week in a row we find her with a 4 point lead over Ovide Lamontagne- the breakdown this time is 51/47. Voters have a positive opinion of Hassan (44/39) while Lamontagne is quite unpopular (40/46). Hassan's winning 51/46 with independents and taking 11% of Republicans to Lamontagne's 5% of Democrats.

This analysis is also available on our website:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/11/obama-leads-by-2-in-iowa-and-new-hampshire.html

A press release and full crosstabs are attached-

Saturday
Oct202012

Public Policy Polling Media Alert: Romney leads by a point in Iowa and New Hampshire

PPP's newest polls in Iowa and New Hampshire find Mitt Romney leading Barack Obama 49-48 in both states. That represents a big decline for Obama compared to last month. Obama had previously led 51-44 in Iowa and 51-43.5 in New Hampshire on polls conducted the final week of September.

Mitt Romney's seen a big improvement in his image in both states. In Iowa his net favorability has improved 16 points from a -15 spread at 40/55 on our last poll to now 48/47. He's seen a 10 point ascent on that front in New Hampshire from -5 at 45/50 when we last looked at his favorability in August to now 51/46. Obama's approval numbers have declined. He was at 49/48 the last time we polled each of these states, but now he's dropped to 46/50 in Iowa and 47/51 in New Hampshire.

Romney has a big advantage on the economy in both of these states that seems to be driving his lead. In New Hampshire voters prefer Romney 52/45 on that front and in Iowa it's 49/45. Voters are closely divided between the two candidates on the issue of Libya, favoring Romney 47/46 in New Hampshire and 46/44 in Iowa. Obama does have a wide lead on women's issues in both states, 56/39 in New Hampshire and 49/44 in Iowa.

Obama's decline in these states  is particularly large compared to his national drop over the last month, but it's a reflection of the demographics in them. Obama has fallen much further with white voters than African Americans or Hispanics and in states like Iowa and New Hampshire where almost the entire population is white it stands to reason that he would have a bigger decline.

Voters in both Iowa (45/36) and New Hampshire (46/38) do think that Obama won the debate on Tuesday night. But unlike Romney's win in the first debate this one doesn't seem to be moving the needle too much.

State specific notes from Iowa:

-Obama has opened up a huge lead among early voters, 66-32. Those folks represent 31% of the electorate. But with the 69% of folks who have yet to cast their ballots, Romney leads 56-39.

-Obama is actually winning independent voters 46/42, but Republicans have built a registration advantage in the state over the last four years and Romney's small lead is largely a reflection of that.

-Obama is up 60/38 with voters under 65, but he's losing every other age group.

-Iowa's Supreme Court retention election looks like it could be pretty close. Right now 37% of voters say they plan to keep David Wiggins in office, while 43% say they're inclined to remove him. With 20% of voters still undecided it could go either way, but Republicans (65%) are more committed to removing him right now than Democrats (59%) are to keeping him.

-Looking ahead to 2014 Terry Branstad has the best approval numbers we've found for him since he took office with 51% of voters happy with the job he's doing to 33% who disapprove. He leads a generic Democrat 53-34. Tom Harkin could be vulnerable in 2014. His approval numbers are split down the middle at 40% and he leads a generic Republican foe only 45-42. Chuck Grassley continues to be the most popular politician in the state with a 54/28 approval rating.

State specific notes from New Hampshire:

-Just like in Iowa Obama is winning the independent vote, 51/45 in this case. But there's been a considerable up tick in voters identifying themselves as Republicans in the state over the last month, fueling Romney's overall slight lead.

-Democratic Maggie Hassan is holding on to a narrow advantage over Republican foe Ovide Lamontagne in the Governor's race, 45/43. She has a positive 41/39 favorability rating, while Lamontagne is unpopular with voters in the state who give him a 41/45 spread. Hassan is both winning independents (45/37) and benefiting from a more unified party base with 85% of Democrats supporting her to 79% of Republicans who are behind Lamontagne.

-John Lynch has a 62/25 approval rating, making him the most popular Governor in the country that we've polled this year. Kelly Ayotte (48/35) has a better approval rating than Jeanne Shaheen (46/39), but Shaheen leads a generic Republican opponent for reelection in 2014 48/42.

This analysis is also available on our website:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/romney-leads-by-1-point-in-iowa-and-new-hampshire.html

I’m not attaching the full results because the file is so large, but you can see those here:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_IANH_1019.pdf

Tuesday
Aug282012

Republicans Try to Keep Libertarian Gary Johnson Off the Iowa Ballot 

Romney Supporters File Challenge Urging Secretary of State to Exclude Libertarian Nominees from the Ballot in November


August 27, 2012, Tampa, Fla.  Jay Kramer, a Mitt Romney campaign supporter from Washington, D.C., filed a challenge on Friday to keep Libertarian candidate for President, Gov. Gary Johnson, from appearing on the Iowa ballot in November. The Romney campaign hired the Des Moines-based Nyemaster Goode PC for the challenge, which will be heard by Iowa Secretary of State Matt Schultz on Monday at 3 p.m. 

 

"This is clearly a setup," said the Johnson campaign's attorney, Alicia Dearn. "The Libertarian Party had 2,000 petition signatures and should have been on the ballot without challenge, as they have always done in the past. But Republican Iowa Secretary of State Schultz — in violation of longstanding Iowa law — rejected the petition and required the Johnson campaign to caucus at the state fair. There, the Romney campaign surveilled the Johnson campaign's activities for the sole purpose of bringing this eleventh-hour challenge," Dearn said. 

 

The Romney campaign's challenge was filed Friday afternoon and set for a hearing on Monday afternoon. The 106-page challenge includes photographs of Johnson supporters asking fair-goers to support having Gov. Johnson and the Libertarian Party offered as a choice on the ballot. The Republicans' challenge claims that the state fair signatures should be thrown out because the signers are not Libertarians.

 

"The challenge is legally frivolous," asserts Dearn. "You don't have to be a registered Libertarian to want a third choice on the ballot. Iowans deserve to choose for themselves who to vote for, which is why Gov. Johnson should be on the ballot." 

 

Unlike many other states, Iowa has a perfect history of allowing third-party candidates onto the ballot.

 

"Iowa is one of the very few states that has never kept a general election presidential candidate off its ballot," said ballot-access historian Richard Winger. "It is a policy that saves money and work for elections officials, because Iowa doesn't need to tally write-in votes for presidential candidates when all such significant candidates are on the ballot."

 

According to Dearn, the Romney campaign is using similar tactics to keep Gov. Johnson off the ballot in Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Wednesday
Feb012012

NHGOP Comments on Iowa GOP Chairman's Resignation Announcement

Concord, NH -- Following news that Iowa Republican Party Chairman Matt Strawn is resigning, N.H. Republican State Committee Chairman Wayne MacDonald, RNC National Committeeman Steve Duprey and RNC National Committeewoman Phyllis Woods released the comments below:

“I was disappointed to learn of Chairman Strawn’s decision. He’s compiled historic achievements and electoral successes for Iowa and the Republican Party. I’m thankful to him for his service and for his partnership in working together to preserve our states’ important roles in the nomination process. His steady leadership has been integral to our successes, and I wish him well in his future endeavors.” -- Chairman MacDonald

“Chairman Strawn has been a tireless advocate for our Party and for the principles of limited government, low taxes and fiscal discipline. On behalf of New Hampshire Republicans, I want to thank him for his service and his commitment to preserving the important and historic First-in-the-Nation traditions in Iowa and our state.” -- RNC National Committeeman Duprey

“I appreciate Chairman Strawn's efforts in our partnership to protect Iowa and New Hampshire's status as the nation’s first caucus and primary. It’s been a pleasure working with Chairman Strawn on the Committee; he's been a credit to his state.  I wish Chairman Strawn well as he turns to a new chapter in his life.” -- RNC National Committeewoman Woods

Wednesday
Jan042012

DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz's Statement on Results of Iowa Caucuses

Des Moines, IA - Democratic National Committee Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz released the following statement on the results of tonight's caucuses in Iowa:

"We knew that the Iowa caucus was an opportunity to test our campaign organization and expand our volunteer base as we move toward November, and we're overwhelmed with the results.   Not only did 25,000 Iowans come out tonight to talk about the President's record and vision to restore security to the middle class, but 7,500 Iowans pledged to volunteer and work for his reelection, underscoring their commitment to continuing the change the country has seen under President Obama's leadership.   This is the first time a caucus has organized for a general election, and it’s a significant down payment for November.  

“The Republican caucus tells a different story.    They made clear tonight what kind of nominee they want facing President Obama in November -- a candidate that supports Tea Party policies that let Wall Street write its own rules, gives more tax cuts to millionaires and billionaires and makes the middle class foot the bill.  But after five years of campaigning and adopting policies far to the right of Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, and Newt Gingrich on issues ranging from economic philosophy, to immigration, to social issues, Mitt Romney still failed to convince voters that he could be trusted to help middle class families and those still trying to reach the middle class.

"So while the Republican candidates pack up their offices tomorrow morning and head out of town, President Obama will emerge from tonight's caucuses with the strongest grassroots organization and infrastructure in this critical battleground state of any candidate going forward.  The President made a promise tonight to keep fighting for America's working families, and he's going to keep it - for the people of Iowa and for folks across the country."