Entries in Polls (212)
With only 74 days until the mid-term election, the latest WMUR/UNH survey confirms that Barack Obama's historically low approval rating, along with the NHGOP's success in highlighting serious missteps and scandals by New Hampshire's Democrat office holders, has created a toxic political environment for Democrats seeking election in November. This, and the strength of our GOP candidates, provides a clear path for acrossthe board Republican victories on Election Day.
Some interesting points from the survey - in which eight hundred and twenty-seven randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by land line and cellular telephone between August 7 and August 17, 2014 with a margin of error of +/- 3.4% - are found below.
FACT: Barack Obama's Abysmal 38% Approval Rating Creates Toxic Political Environment
President Obama's approval rating has now hit an all-time low of 38% in New Hampshire, and he fares even worse (37%) among likely voters.
To put this in historical context - 39% of Granite State voters approved of President George W. Bush's performance at this point in 2006 while 51% approved of President Obama in July of 2010. Both elections saw widespread losses for the respective parties of each President in New Hampshire during the mid-term elections.
We expect that Senator Jeanne Shaheen, Governor Maggie Hassan, and Congresswomen Carol Shea-Porter and Annie Kuster will take every evasive maneuver imaginable - tactics they've perfected in avoiding New Hampshire voters daily - to separate themselves from and avoid the President between now and Election Day. However, given their reliable support for his failed liberal policies over the past six years, these efforts will prove futile in the fall.
- Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
- August 2014
- Approve: 38%
- Disapprove: 55%
- July 2010
- Approve: 51%
- Disapprove: 44%
- August 2014
FACT: Jeanne Shaheen's Duck and Dodge Rose Garden Strategy is Not Working
In spite of Senator Shaheen's best efforts to avoid, ignore, and run from the constituents she was elected to represent, she finds herself in a dead heat with her nearest Republican opponent, leading by two points (within the margin of error) as compared to 12 in last month's poll. This comes on the heels of the NHGOP's successful efforts highlighting Senator Shaheen's failure to hold a town hall meeting for over 723 days and her support for Barack Obama's botched agenda 99% of the time.
John DiStaso of the New Hampshire Journal confirmed this when he wrote:
"The numbers suggest that ... the state GOP have [has] been effective in their recent attacks on Shaheen on immigration/border security and her failure to hold traditional town halls for more than 700 days. The numbers also show that Shaheen is being effectively linked by ... the GOP to President Barack Obama, whose approval rating in the state is at an all-time low."(DiStaso, John. "Latest poll shows Scott Brown has closed to a statistical tie with Jeanne Shaheen," NH Journal, 08/21/14)
The NHGOP will continue to expose Senator Shaheen's failure to listen to or engage her constituents while maintaining her lockstep loyalty to President Obama. Given Senator Shaheen's continued vocal support for a weak President and his disastrous agenda, this survey indicates that New Hampshire voters are ready for an alternative to the Obama/Shaheen status quo.
FACT: Maggie Hassan's Favorables Hit All Time Low in Light of Scandal & Compare Poorly to John Lynch
In light of recent reports of Governor Hassan's illegal fundraising scandal, it comes as no surprise that her net favorable rating has dropped by nearly half and she currently finds herself in the danger zone for incumbent politicians. Only 44% of Granite State voters have a favorable impression of the Governor - an all-time low and a drop of 14% since just last month. Politicians with favorable and approval ratings below 50% are at risk of losing re-election, with those registering below 45% in a very weak position going into the fall election season.
As a point of comparison, in July 2010 Governor John Lynch registered a 61% favorably rating (17% higher than Hassan's current numbers) and only secured 53% of the vote in his re-election campaign (at a time when President Obama's approval rating was 13% higher than today).
- Favorable Ratings: Hassan v. Lynch
- August 2014 - Hassan
- Favorable: 44%
- July 2010 - Lynch
- Favorable 61%
- August 2014 - Hassan
Given that Hassan and her administration have done little to distinguish themselves, and continue to be embroiled in this ongoing scandal, these poll numbers will continue to decrease over the next 74 days. The result? Republicans will head into November well positioned to run a strong and competitive campaign to replace her.
It should also be noted that Republicans are favored by 5% on the generic ballot when voters are asked whom they intend to vote for in races for the State Senate and the State House of Representatives. We are looking at securing substantial Republican majorities in both houses of the legislature.
FACT: Liberal Congressional Democrats Shea-Porter and Kuster Likely Go Down With the Ship
If current polling trends continue, both Congresswoman Carol Shea Porter and Ann McLane Kuster will lose in November.
One of Congresswoman Shea-Porter's challengers has expanded his lead from last month's poll to 4%. Equally as troubling for Shea-Porter, her favorability rating has also dropped for the third consecutive WMUR Granite State Poll.
Congresswoman Kuster once again finds herself with an upside-down image rating, with more voters in the second congressional district having an unfavorable impression of her than favorable. Her sagging poll numbers have created a toss-up race against her closest Republican competitors. Against one challenger, Kuster's lead is within the poll's margin of error.
Both Shea-Porter and Kuster only register approximately 40% when matched up with their Republican opponents. Those lackluster numbers, when tied to a toxic political environment caused by Barack Obama's bottom of the barrel poll numbers and continued problems for the top of their ticket, will result in two new Republican members of Congress elected in November.
BOTTOM LINE: The NHGOP will continue to work tirelessly to promote our Republican candidates, and hold Democrats accountable to the voters of New Hampshire. This week's survey data tells us that our efforts to date are proving successful, with more work to be done. We'll continue the fight in the weeks and months ahead.
Granite Staters Sending a Clear Message to Shea-Porter: Enough!
Yesterday, Team Guinta released an internal poll showing a 56 point lead over our nearest competitor in the Republican primary to be held on September 9. A WMUR Granite State Poll released simultaneously had Frank Guinta defeating Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter by four points.
This is the second consecutive poll that shows Shea-Porter down to Guinta. You can find the poll from July showing Team Guinta in the lead HERE. You can find a release and analysis of the most recent poll HERE.
Frank Guinta released the following statement:
“In addition to these polls, we recently received the support of the Foster’s Daily Democrat, which said our campaign was one of ideas and substance. Momentum is on our side! Granite Staters have grown tired of Congresswoman Shea-Porter’s antics. Flying to California to raise money with Nancy Pelosi while failing to hold a single open forum is the opposite of what New Hampshire expects from its Representatives. I will continue to travel the District putting forth solutions to strengthen and grow the middle-class, and with your help we will take back New Hampshire this fall!”
WASHINGTON -- It has been a long summer for New Hampshire Senate candidate Scott Brown.
The Massachusetts Republican, who lost to Democrat Elizabeth Warren in Massachusetts 2012, is now attempting to unseat incumbent Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.). Though he faces long odds in his campaign -- only two senators have ever represented more than one state in the Senate -- Republican strategists have pointed to Brown's experience and his nimble victory over Democrat Martha Coakley in 2010 as reasons why he could ultimately prevail.
Yet a series of recent missteps -- including Brown's handling of the Affordable Care Act, his apparent effort to dodge an interview on the Supreme Court's Hobby Lobby ruling, and his remarks on immigration reform -- have left the candidate's campaign on the defensive. A CBS/NYT/YouGov survey in July actually showed Shaheenmaintaining her lead over the Republican challenger.
The op-ed comes on the heels of Brown's remarks on immigration in July, when heaccidentally let slip the word "Massachusetts" while on campaign in New Hampshire, the new state he is battling to represent. The "big difference between Sen. Shaheen and me, and many other people in the Massachusetts delegation," Brown said, is that he is "not for amnesty." Unfortunately, it's not the first time this has happened.
Also in July, Brown drew criticism after he ducked inside a bathroom to avoid a reporter who wanted to know the senator's opinion on the Supreme Court's Hobby Lobby decision. In a 5-4, all-male opinion, the court held corporations cannot be required to provide contraception coverage for their employees under the Affordable Care Act. Democrats warned the decision would severely limit access to birth control, an important issue for many women voters.
Before that, Brown walked into an awkward encounter when he railed against the "monstrosity" of Obamacare at the home of a Republican state representative earlier this year. State Rep. Herb Richardson chimed in by explaining that the Affordable Care Act had actually been a "financial lifesaver" for him and his family. As his wife put it, "Thank God for Obamacare!"
But it's not just Brown who has been having trouble lately. It's his campaign, too.
A man Brown's team touted as a supporter in a July press release subsequently sent a letter to the New Hampshire Democratic office that was laced with profanity and misogyny toward Shaheen, Gov. Maggie W. Hassan, and Reps. Carol Shea-Porter and Ann McLane Kuster, according to BuzzFeed. Brown's campaign was forced to "disassociate" itself from the supporter. And then there's the matter of several campaign ads that feature Brown speaking in front of a green screen with stock video footage, giving the appearance he is out on location in New Hampshire when in fact he was likely in a studio.
Despite the missteps, polling shows that Brown still has room to improve. Only 17 percent of likely voters said they have definitely decided whom to support in the race, according to a recent WHMU poll. A whopping 69 percent are still trying to decide.
HuffPost Pollster, which averages polling data, currently shows Shaheen toppingBrown 49.6 percent to 41.1 percent.
As thousands participate in public hearings around the country in Colorado, Georgia, and Washington, DC to discuss the EPA’s proposed power plant regulations, a new battleground poll was just released by the American Energy Alliance showing that the more Americans learn about the impact of the regulations, the more they oppose them. Conducted by The Winston Group, the poll looks specifically at how support for the new EPA proposed power plant rule evaporates when Americans are given the all the details.
Looking at IA, CO, NC, MT and AR, the poll finds that despite initial support for new EPA regulations, every state flips dramatically after people hear arguments for and againstthe EPA proposal.
Read Chris Stirewalt’s report for Fox News here.
In addition, surveys in Colorado and Iowa indicate that voters will be less likely to support a Senate candidate who opposes the Keystone pipeline.
Support for the EPA rule goes from 59-32 support to 48-44 oppose after voters hear arguments both for and against the rule. Despite many pleas, Senator Kay Hagan has affirmed her support for strict power plant rules, a position which puts her far too out of step with North Carolinians.
Voters are 57-44 support to 50-37 oppose for the EPA rules after they hear arguments for and against. Nearly half (46%) of Colorado voters would be less likely to support a Senate candidate who opposed the Keystone Pipeline. Senator Mark Udall supports the EPA regs and could spell trouble this November. The Colorado polling memo from the American Energy Alliance & the Winston Group can be read here.
Voters are 64-31 support to 48-44 oppose after hearing arguments from both sides. Over 40% of Iowa voters would be less likely to support a Senate candidate who opposed the Keystone Pipeline. With Senate candidate Bruce Braley firmly behind the EPA’s rule and opposed to the Keystone Pipeline, this is sure to continue to be a major issue in Iowa as we head toward November. The Iowa polling memo can be read here.
- In all states surveyed, people believe that job creation and economic growth should be the Obama Administration’s top priority.
- When presented with additional facts and information, initial support for the EPA rule changes dramatically – with every state flipping from tepid support to strong opposition.
- The more people find out what is in the proposal and what it means for middle class Americans, job creation, and economic growth, the less they like it.
- In Colorado and Iowa, voters say that a U.S. Senate candidate’s position on the stalled Keystone XL pipeline will be a major motivating factor heading into the voting booths this November.
- A majority of voters reject the costly carbon tax proposal.
This year, Australia repealed its 2012 power plant rules, which mandated a $21.50 charge (in U.S. dollars) per ton of emitted carbon dioxide.
The full polling memo from the American Energy Alliance & the Winston Group can be read here.
State Polling Memos