NH GOP - NH EDITORIAL PAGES PAN SHEA-PORTER'S FAILED LEADERSHIP ON FINANCIAL ISSUE

Concord – Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter is under fire this week from New Hampshire editorial pages because of her failed leadership on critical financial issues affecting her constituents. The Union Leader, Portsmouth Herald and Foster’s Daily Democrat, criticized Shea-Porter for failing to oppose crushing new EPA regulations and for her unwillingness to speak out against the Internet sales tax.

“Congresswoman Shea-Porter has refused to speak out against the crushing new regulations and tax hikes that Washington is trying to impose on New Hampshire. She has let down her constituents by refusing to provide any leadership on the critical financial issues facing the First District,” said NHGOP Executive Director Matthew Slater. “Congresswoman Shea-Porter’s approval ratings have dropped dramatically because voters realize that she would rather bow to Washington’s special interests than stand up for the Granite State’s fiscally responsible values.”

A poll released by the University of New Hampshire in April found that 31% of First District residents have a favorable opinion of Congresswoman Shea-Porter, while 32% have an unfavorable opinion of her. In UNH’s August poll 49% rated Shea-Porter favorably while only 28% rated her unfavorably. 

What They’re Saying About Shea-Porter’s Failed Financial Leadership

Foster’s Daily Democrat: “Shaheen, Ayotte and U.S. Rep. Annie Kuster from the 2nd Congressional District have all vocally opposed the Internet tax. Instead, Shea-Porter had a spokesman simply parrot Shaheen’s position on the issue.” (5/8/13)

• Foster’s: “What has happened to the once demonstrative Shea-Porter who climbed to fame after protesting at a President George W. Bush speech?” (5/8/13)
• Foster’s: “Why has she suddenly gone Caspar Milquetoast when it comes to critical financial issues affecting the Seacoast and Granite State businesses?” (5/8/13)

Portsmouth Herald: “U.S. Rep. Carol Shea-Porter hosted a community forum last Tuesday that was billed as a talk about the future of Great Bay. In reality, it was a reminder of the massive expenses communities around the bay face to meet new Environmental Protection Agency mandates to reduce nitrogen emissions from their wastewater treatment plants.” (5/6/13)

• Herald: “While lowering nitrogen emissions from the plants is an opportunity it will require a collective half-billion dollar investment from the communities being forced to rebuild their wastewater treatment plants. It’s financially somewhere between a hardship and a doomsday for many ratepayers.” (5/6/13)
• Herald: “This is wrong, and if Shea-Porter is going to host community forums, we expect more from her…her words truly missed the mark.”
 (5/6/13)

New Hampshire Union Leader: “Carol Shea-Porter has a funny way of working in Washington to protect New Hampshire. Instead of fighting bad or questionable ideas that threaten to bring lasting harm to the state, she supports the ideas and works to carve out small exceptions for New Hampshire.” (5/6/13)

• New Hampshire Union Leader: “Shea-Porter, of course, is siding with the EPA, questionable science and all. Instead of siding with the local municipalities, she said she would try to get federal money to help pay for the costs of meeting the EPA's standards. She called water bodies like the Great Bay "national treasures" that need to be protected. True, but how? That's the question, and Shea-Porter's answer is: However the EPA says.” (5/6/13)
• New Hampshire Union Leader:  “Also last week, Shea-Porter finally took some kind of position on the Internet sales tax legislation pending in Washington, which could lead to the destruction of the New Hampshire Advantage. Her position was to support Jeanne Shaheen's proposed amendment carving out an exception for states that do not have a sales tax. Of course, once the law is in place, that exception can be revoked easily.” (5/6/13)
• New Hampshire Union Leader:  "From Obamacare to Medicaid expansion to the Internet sales tax, it would be helpful if New Hampshire's 1st District were represented in Congress by someone who actually sided with New Hampshire instead of Washington power-grabbers."(5/6/13)

Public Policy Polling Media Alert: Paul, Clinton early leaders in New Hampshire

PPP's new poll of New Hampshire Republicans about 2016 finds momentum on Rand Paul's side. He leads the potential field with 28% to 25% for Marco Rubio, 14% for Chris Christie, 7% for Jeb Bush and Paul Ryan, 4% for Rick Santorum, 3% for Susana Martinez, and 1% each for Rick Perry and Bobby Jindal.

Paul has seen a huge increase in his support from when PPP last looked at New Hampshire in November, from 4% then to his current 28% standing. Also on the rise is Rubio who's gone up 11 points from 14% to 25%. On the down swing are Christie who's dropped 7 points from 21% and the lead then to 14% and 3rd place now, Bush who's dropped 4 points from 11% to 7%, and Ryan who's dropped 3 points from 10% to 7%.

Paul is benefiting from his appeal to independent voters. Rubio leads him 29/26 among voters who are actually registered as Republicans, but Paul's at 32% with independents to 19% for Christie and 17% for Rubio. Paul also leads Rubio with men (33/22) and younger voters (35/26), while Rubio has the upper hand with women (27/22) and seniors (35/14).

On the Democratic side desire for Hillary Clinton to be the party nominee next year has just increased even further from November. Then 60% of Democrats supported her, now that's up to 68% who want her as their candidate to 12% for Joe Biden, 5% for Elizabeth Warren, 3% for Andrew Cuomo, and 2% for Deval Patrick with nobody else over 1%. Clinton has over 50% support from men and women, young, middle aged, and old voters, 'very liberal,' 'somewhat liberal,' and 'moderate' voters, and both Democrats and independents.

If Clinton doesn't run there's 44% support for Biden, followed by Warren at 12% and Patrick and Cuomo at 9% with no one else over 2%. If Clinton and Biden both sit it out 30% of Democrats say they don't know who they would want as their candidate with Cuomo at 23%, Warren at 22%, Patrick at 17%, Kirsten Gillibrand at 4%, Martin O'Malley at 2%, and Brian Schweitzer and Mark Warner each at 1%.

Clinton's so strong in New Hampshire that early indications are she could take it off the board as a swing state in the general election if she runs. She leads Paul 52/41 and Rubio 52/38 in hypothetical match ups, holding a double digit lead with independents and getting double digit support from Republicans in both potential match ups.

This analysis is also available on our website:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/04/paul-rising-in-new-hampshire.html

A press release and full crosstabs are attached-

NHDP - ICYMI: Scott Brown's New Hampshire Dalliance

Scott Brown continues to face harsh criticism - even from fellow Republicans - for considering a carpetbagger campaign in New Hampshire.  In Politico yesterday Republicans were quoted as "largely dismissive," and noting that "you'd have to spend the first 10 minutes of every forum explaining why you'll be New Hampshire's senator as opposed to Massachusetts's third senator."  University of New Hampshire Pollster Andy Smith called the whole idea 'slightly ridiculous.'

Separately, public polls revealed over half the state - 54% of New Hampshire voters - didn't want him to run for office in their state, and nearly two-thirds don't consider him a Granite Stater.

Other highlights from Politico:

"Washington Republicans aren't terribly excited about the other hopefuls."

"Moreover, Shaheen is no sitting duck; most Republicans acknowledge the incumbent would be hard for Brown to beat."

 

The full text is included below.

Scott Brown's New Hampshire dalliance

http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=B8157E56-8010-48F8-83BF-B4528FD7A7C2

POLITICO

April 24, 2013

Scott Brown has the look of a man not quite sure what to do with himself.

Since losing his Senate seat in November, the Republican flirted with but then decided against running again in Massachusetts, signed up as a commentator for Fox News and landed a gig at a law firm with a lobbying practice. Now he's again looking at a possible run ... in New Hampshire.

Brown is serious enough that he's making at least five trips to the state in a one-month window, including last Saturday for a speech to a county GOP luncheon in Hanover and an appearance at the New Hampshire Young Republicans convention.

The Republican senatorial campaign arm, looking to expand the 2014 map, has promoted the buzz, and Karl Rove has talked him up on cable. Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen is favored to win a second term in the swing state, but a Brown entry - the odds are still probably less than 50-50 - would throw the race into flux.

Moving to New Hampshire to run for Senate would pose huge obstacles for Brown, starting with the inevitable carpetbagger tag. But Republicans who have spoken with Brown say he's eager to see what kind of reception he gets from activists.

"Nothing is off the table, and nothing is on the table," Brown said coyly on Fox recently. "Right now, I'm recharging the batteries and working hard."

He said the same thing to reporters during his visit to Hanover, N.H., on Saturday.

But as implausible as a Granite State campaign might seem, it's not hard to see why Brown is testing the waters.

The majority of New Hampshire voters get their news from Boston TV affiliates, so Brown starts with near universal name recognition. Many local Republican organizations mobilized volunteers to help Brown win his 2010 special election upset in Massachusetts. And Brown excels at retail politicking, which the smaller state is famous for.

"He's almost like an adopted son," said New Hampshire Republican consultant Jamie Burnett. "He connects well with regular people who view him as 'one of us.' He's a compelling individual, very well liked. There would be people that would get excited about that prospect."

"Baltimore is further away from Washington than New Hampshire is from Boston," said another Granite State Republican operative. "It's a commuter state in a lot of ways."

Brown also has legitimate ties to New Hampshire: He owns a vacation home in the state, and, as Rove noted on Fox, Brown's mother lives in the state and he can claim ties from eight previous generations.

Moreover, Brown has a national fundraising network that would allow him to outraise any opponent. He raised $47 million for his two Senate campaigns.

National Republicans are in need of a top-tier recruit in the swing state. The strongest candidate Republicans could have fielded, former Sen. John E. Sununu, announced this month that he won't seek a rematch against Shaheen, who beat him in 2008. This was expected but, nonetheless, a blow to GOP hopes to make New Hampshire into a prime pickup opportunity.

Washington Republicans aren't terribly excited about the other hopefuls. State Senate Majority Leader Jeb Bradley, who served two terms in the U.S. House but lost in 2006 and failed in a 2008 comeback bid, is seen as very likely to get in. He did not return a message seeking comment.

Former Rep. Frank Guinta served one term in the House but lost last November. Conventional wisdom is that he will run to reclaim his House seat, but his chief of staff said he is "considering all his options" over the next few months.

There are other draws for Brown. Massachusetts's overwhelmingly Democratic electorate guarantees permanent placement on the list of most-vulnerable senators; that would be much less of a worry in more purple New Hampshire. To wit: Mitt Romney lost Massachusetts, where he had been governor, by 23 points; he lost New Hampshire by 6 points.

And yet, despite all of that, Brown is seen as likely to pass. As strong as a candidate as he could be, Brown would most likely have to get through a tough primary in which he'd be attacked as a carpetbagging moderate who backs abortion rights and an assault weapons ban. And if he survived that challenge - not a given - he'd be up against a well-liked former three-term governor in Shaheen. A poll conducted for the environmental group League of Conservation Voters this week shows Shaheen handily beating Brown, 52-41, in a prospective matchup.

New Hampshire GOP operative Rich Killion said, "A strong conservative would most definitely hop in" to challenge Brown in a primary.

"New Hampshire's a place where you essentially cannot clear a field," said Killion. "My advice to him would be: Just be real straight with New Hampshire voters what your intentions are. As a group, they are gut-level voters. They are very careful to make assessments of people, but because they are gut-level, once they do, they hold hard."

Sununu, the former senator, was largely dismissive of Brown's trial balloon. "There are a number of sharp, experienced Republicans who have lived in New Hampshire for decades who would be tough for Scott to take on in a primary," he told the New Hampshire Union Leader when he passed on the Senate race.

And Granite State connections notwithstanding, Brown would have a lot of explaining to do about why a move was anything other than opportunism.

There is widespread consensus that the carpetbagging charge would prove costly, if not fatal.

In 1992, Democrats nominated a businessman named John Rauh, who had recently moved to the state. During a televised debate, he was unable to answer when the moderator asked which county Chester is in. Then-Gov. Judd Gregg, whose dad had been governor, pounced. It was a factor in a race decided by less than 3 points.

"The way to bring the fight to Sen. Shaheen is not where you'd have to spend the first 10 minutes of every forum explaining why you'll be New Hampshire's senator as opposed to Massachusetts's third senator," said a top Republican in the state. "He'd start off explaining from Day One. And, as they say: If you're explaining, you're losing."

He compared a potential move to a lawyer "forum shopping" for a friendlier judge.

"The feeling here is we're a sovereign state, not a colony," he said.

Moreover, Shaheen is no sitting duck; most Republicans acknowledge the incumbent would be hard for Brown to beat. She was elected governor three times and narrowly lost to Sununu in 2002 before beating him in 2008.

"It would be difficult for him but not impossible. If he was the nominee, I'm sure he'd give Jeanne Shaheen a tough fight," said Burnett, a onetime campaign aide to Sununu. "She won't be easy for anyone to beat, but she's beatable."

A Democratic Senate strategist said Shaheen's line of attack against Brown in a general election context would probably be similar to the three-pronged strategy employed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren last year: attack him as beholden to Wall Street, supportive of tax breaks for millionaires and antagonistic toward women, citing his vote for the Blunt amendment.

"If you take a step back, that's the campaign Barack Obama ran against Mitt Romney in New Hampshire," the strategist said.

In the end, Brown may fall back to what everyone assumed he'd decided after he took a pass on Kerry's seat: cashing in on his political celebrity and getting some much needed R&R rather than running another grueling campaign he'd be uncertain to win.

One adviser insists that the senator has only begun to think through the plusses and minuses.

Andrew Smith, who runs the University of New Hampshire Survey Center and has yet to poll on a potential Brown candidacy, said the whole idea is slightly ridiculous.

"Only the state of New York," Smith said, "will allow carpetbaggers to come in and get elected."

NH GOP - KUSTER AND SHEA-PORTER UNDERWATER IN NEW UNH POLL

Concord – A new poll released last night by the University of New Hampshire shows a steady decline in Congresswoman Annie Kuster and Congresswoman Shea-Porter popularity. According to the survey, both Shea-Porter and Kuster have a dismal -1% favorability rating. 

“Representatives Shea-Porter and Kuster are losing support because Granite Staters are fed up with their votes for higher taxes, reckless spending and more debt,” said NHGOP Chairman Jennifer Horn. “Kuster and Shea-Porter have gone to Washington and betrayed their constituents by championing extreme, job killing policies that will grow government and bankrupt our country. They are completely out of step with New Hampshire’s fiscally responsible values and unable to address the serious challenges that are threatening America's solvency.”

The survey found that only 31% of First District residents have a favorable opinion of Congresswoman Shea-Porter, while 32% have an unfavorable opinion. That’s down from the 49% favorable/28% unfavorable ratings that Shea-Porter received in UNH’s August poll.

Second District residents have a 29% favorable and 30% unfavorable opinion of Congresswoman Annie Kuster, down from a 35% favorable/25% unfavorable rating in UNH’s October poll.

PPP - Ayotte facing backlash over gun vote, Hassan off to a good start

Gun show background checks are pretty universally popular in New Hampshire...and Kelly Ayotte is facing some serious backlash from voters in the state for voting against them last week.

Ayotte now has a negative approval rating with 44% of voters giving her good marks and 46% disapproving. That's down a net 15 points from the last time we polled on her, in October, when she had a 48% approval with 35% disapproving. 75% of New Hampshire voters- including 95% of Democrats, 74% of independents, and 56% of Republicans- say they support background checks. And 50% of voters in the state say Ayotte's 'no' vote will make them less likely to support her in a future election, compared to just 23% who consider it to be a positive.

Ayotte won her seat in 2010 by 23 points. But in a very early hypothetical match up between her and new Democratic Governor Maggie Hassan, she trails by a 46/44 margin. This issue is really giving her some trouble.

Speaking of Hassan, she's off to a good start in her first term as Governor. 50% of voters approve of her to only 31% who disapprove, including a 47/29 spread with independents. She holds leads ranging from 14 to 20 points over five potential Republican foes for reelection that we tested against her.

Former Congressman Jeb Bradley does the best but still trails by 14 points at 52/38. He is followed by Manchester Mayor Ted Gatsas and Sununu family member Chris Sununu who trail by 16 points each at 51/35 and 53/37 respectively, former Congressman Frank Guinta who trails by 18 at 54/36, and 2012 primary runner up Kevin Smith who has a 20 point deficit at 52/32. Hassan holds a double digit lead among independents and pulls double digit support from Republican voters in each match up.

A few other notes from New Hampshire:

-While Barack Obama's approval numbers have dropped in a lot of places since the election, his 52/46 spread in the state is pretty similar to what he pulled last November.

-Gay marriage has been legal for a little bit more than three years in the state now, and it is quite popular with 56% of voters supporting it to 34% who are opposed. When we asked voters how they felt about it in July of 2011 support ran 51/38, so there's been a net 9 point increase over the last couple years.

One reason for the increase in support might be that voters have found gay marriage isn't such a big deal- just 16% say its being legal has had a negative impact on their lives, and even among voters opposed to it 58% grant that it hasn't actually had any adverse effect on them.

This analysis is also available on our website:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/04/ayotte-faces-backlash-over-gun-vote.html

A press release and full crosstabs are attached-