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Entries in Polls (235)

Friday
Aug282015

PPP - NH voters on the Governor's race; Obamacare; Background Checks; Tom Brady, and More 

PPP's newest New Hampshire poll finds that Maggie Hassan will be clearly favored if she runs for another term as Governor- but if she moves on to a Senate bid Republicans may start out with a slight advantage in the race to replace her.

Hassan, who is generally popular with a 48/42 approval rating, would lead Chris Sununu 48/41 and Jeb Bradley 48/39 in hypothetical contests. Those margins are pretty much in line with what she won by last year. If Hassan doesn't seek reelection most of the Democrats named as potential replacements for her would start out with a name recognition deficit against their likely Republican opponents. While Sununu (71% name recognition) and Bradley (56% name recognition) are both known to a majority of voters in the state, the Democratic trio of Terie Norelli (27% name recognition), Chris Pappas (25% name recognition), and Colin Van Ostern (21% name recognition) are all largely unknown.

That disparity in name id likely explains why Sununu and Bradley lead Norelli, Pappas, and Van Ostern by 4-7 points in hypothetical contests. Sununu is up 38/34 on Pappas, 39/34 on Norelli, and 39/32 on Van Ostern. Bradley is up 38/33 on Pappas, 39/33 on Norelli, and 38/31 on Van Ostern. With large swaths of voters undecided in every possible match up the race is pretty undefined at this point.

Other notes from New Hampshire:

-60% of voters in the state support a policy that sets a goal of producing 50% of America's energy needs from renewable sources by 2030, compared to only 25% of voters who oppose that concept. Among the critical independent voters who tend to decide elections in New Hampshire support for that is even more emphatic, with 62% of them in favor of it to only 18% who are opposed.

-Granite State voters think funding for public schools needs to be increased, and that one of the outcomes of that increased funding should be higher teacher salaries. 57% of voters think education funding should be increased compared to only 16% who think it should be decreased and 22% who think it's fine where it is. 47% think teachers are paid too little, to just 15% who think they're paid too much. With independents 59% think there needs to be more money given to public schools and 50% believe teachers are under paid.

-In a sign of how much the political landscape around Obamacare has changed in the last year, 44% of New Hampshire voters say they support the Affordable Care Act to 43% who are opposed. Those numbers are tight but it used to be that the ACA was very unpopular in any swing state where we polled it. It's now at worst a neutral issue for Democrats politically, and it's moving in the direction of actually being a help for them. One big reason things are different now- Democrats (79%) are more unified in their support of it than Republicans (74%) are in their opposition.

-Background checks on all gun purchases have broad bipartisan support from New Hampshire voters- 85% support them to only 9% who are opposed. They meet with favor from 96% of Democrats, 82% of independents, and 79% of Republicans.

-71% of New Hampshire voters support increasing the minimum wage to at least $10 an hour, to just 12% who want to keep it where it is and another 12% who think the federal minimum wage should be eliminated altogether. 92% of Democrats, 72% of independents, and 52% of Republicans want an increase to at least $10.

-New Hampshire voters really don't like Scott Brown. Only 29% have a favorable opinion of him to 50% with a negative one. Right before the election last fall he had a 77/16 favorability rating with Republicans, but now it's only 48/27. That suggests a lot of GOP voters were just saying they liked him because they had to. Brown is also at 26/48 with independents. Meanwhile Jeanne Shaheen is popular, with 50% of voters approving of the job she's doing to 39% who disapprove.

-One thing that unites Granite State voters across political lines is the defense of Tom Brady. 68% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of him to only 16% with a negative one. And 66% think the NFL has treated him in an unfair manner compared to only 20% who believe he's been treated fairly. Those numbers are all in line with 66% of New Hampshire voters identifying themselves as Patriots fans to 5% for the Packers and Giants, and 3% for the Cowboys.

-New Hampshire voters are slightly even more united in their support of the Red Sox- 69% pull for them to 7% for the Yankees, 4% for the Braves, and 3% for the Mets.

This analysis is also available on our website:

 

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/08/new-hampshire-odds-and-ends.html

 

I’m not attaching the full results because the file is so large, but you can see those here:

 

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NH_82715.pdf

Wednesday
Aug262015

PPP Media Alert: Trump, Sanders lead primaries in New Hampshire 

PPP's new New Hampshire poll finds Donald Trump in the strongest position of any poll we've done anywhere since he entered the race. Trump laps the Republican field with 35% to 11% for John Kasich, 10% for Carly Fiorina, 7% each for Jeb Bush and Scott Walker, 6% for Ben Carson, 4% each for Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio, and 3% for Rand Paul. Candidates falling outside the top ten in the state are Rick Perry at 2%, Lindsey Graham, George Pataki, and Rick Santorum at 1%, and Jim Gilmore, Mike Huckabee, and Bobby Jindal all at less than 1%. Everyone does have at least one supporter on this poll.

To give an idea of how fundamentally the contest has shifted over the last four months none of Trump, Kasich, and Fiorina were even included in the horse race question when we last polled the state in April. The candidate who's made the most cataclysmic drop is Walker- he's gone from leading at 24% all the way down to 7% in this newest poll.

Three other candidates who've seen dramatic decreases in their support are Cruz, Huckabee, and Paul. Cruz's 10 point drop from 14% to 4% is a little bit misleading. When we last polled the state he was still enjoying the bump he received following his candidacy announcement. It's worse news for Paul- he's declined 8 points from 12% to 4% but more notably he's seen a major blow to his image. In April he had a +29 net favorability rating at 54/25. That's now dropped a remarkable 44 points to a -15 spread at 34/49. We've found Paul under water all four places we've polled since the Republican debate. It's a similarly bad story for Huckabee- he's dropped from 7% to less than 1% and he's also seen his favorability go from +16 at 48/32 to -7 at 34/41. For Paul and Huckabee it's not just that other candidates are passing them by- they are becoming increasingly unpopular themselves.

Trump's advantage over the Republican field is thorough. He leads with Tea Party voters (44%), men (39%), independents (36%), conservatives (36%), voters who are most concerned about electability (35%), both younger voters and seniors (at 34% with each), evangelicals (32%), women (30%), and moderates (29%). Trump has a 56/32 favorability rating and he also leads when you match him with the other Republican hopefuls head to head- it's 47/39 over Ben Carson, 53/35 over Scott Walker, 53/34 over Marco Rubio, and 56/33 over Jeb Bush.

Quick notes on some of the other candidates:

-Bush is really struggling. Only 38% of primary voters have a favorable opinion of him to 41% with a negative one. This is largely a function of his unpopularity with conservatives- among voters who identify themselves as 'very conservative' just 34% have a positive opinion of him to 48% who have a negative one. Only 3% say he's their first choice for the nomination, putting him in a tie for 8th place with that group.

-Kasich is on the move because of his strength with moderate voters. He gets 20% with them, putting him second to Trump, and making up for his own trouble on the right- he gets just 1% with 'very conservative' voters. Moderates are 29% of the GOP electorate on this poll, a lot more than in most places.

-New Hampshire makes another state where Ben Carson is the most well liked Republican, with 62% rating him favorably to 17% who have a negative opinion. Carly Fiorina is not far behind him at 58/19. Besides those two and Trump, the only other Republican seen positively by a majority of primary voters is Marco Rubio at 50/27.

-Besides Bush, Huckabee, and Paul other Republican hopefuls with negative favorabilities even among the GOP electorate in New Hampshire are Lindsey Graham at 20/43 (-23), Chris Christie at 35/46 (-11), Jim Gilmore at 4/13 (-9) George Pataki at 27/32 (-5), and Rick Perry at 34/37 (-3).

There's been a big shift on the Democratic side since April as well. Bernie Sanders now leads the field in the state with 42% to 35% for Hillary Clinton, 6% for Jim Webb, 4% for Martin O'Malley, 2% for Lincoln Chafee, and 1% for Lawrence Lessig.

The main story in New Hampshire is how universally popular Sanders has become with the Democratic electorate. 78% see him favorably to only 12% with a negative opinion- that makes him easily the most popular candidate on either side with their party's voters. Meanwhile Hillary Clinton's favorability numbers have taken a little bit of a hit- she was at 78/10 with Democratic primary voters in April, but now she's at a 63/25 spread. 

The ideological divide is actually not that stark on the Democratic side. Sanders is ahead with 'somewhat liberal' voters (45/32), 'very liberal' ones (46/37), and moderates (40/36) alike. And although there is certainly a gender gap Sanders is ahead with both men (44/30) and women (41/38). But the real big divide we see is along generational lines- Clinton is ahead 51/34 with seniors, but Sanders has a 45/29 advantage with everyone under the age of 65.

New Hampshire is somewhat a world unto itself in the Democratic race. We're still finding Clinton well ahead everywhere else. But it's clear there's a real race now in the Granite State.

This analysis is also available on our website:

 

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/08/ppps-new-new-hampshire-poll-finds-donald-trump-in-the-strongest-position-of-any-poll-weve-done-anywhere-since-he-entered-the.html

 

I’m not attaching the full results because the file is so large, but you can see those here:

 

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NH_82515.pdf

Tuesday
Jun232015

OurAmericanInitiative - Gov. Gary Johnson statement re: debate lawsuits 

June 22, 2015, Salt Lake City, UT -- Calling it the "next step” in changing the two-party control of presidential debates,  2012 Libertarian presidential candidate Gov.Gary Johnson today noted the filing of a lawsuit against the Federal Election Commission ( FEC).

 

The lawsuit, filed Monday in U.S. District Court in Washington, DC, challenges the FEC’s treatment of the private Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) as non-partisan, citing the CPD’s use of polling criteria to effectively limit participation to only the Republican and Democrat candidates. Plaintiffs in the case include the Libertarian Party and the Green Party as well as Level the Playing Field and noted supporter Peter Ackerman.

 

Johnson is the Honorary Chairman of the Our America Initiative, a nonprofit organization which is advocating a change in the Presidential debates. Johnson noted that in addition to the FEC lawsuit additional legal complaints will soon be filed to challenge the Commission on Presidential Debate"s control over the Presidential debates.

 

In a statement released Monday, the former New Mexico Governor said, “The last time a third party or independent candidate was allowed to participate in nationally televised general election presidential debates was 1992. The reason is simple. The Commission on Presidential Debates, which controls the debates, was created by the Republican and Democrat Parties and remains under that two-party control today. This lawsuit against the FEC is an important step toward stripping the veneer off the CPD and treating it as what it really is: A partisan organization that exists to protect the two-party dominance of the political process.

 

“By opening another ‘front’ in the battle against unfairly limited presidential debates, this recent FEC legal challenge strengthens the soon-to-be-filed second lawsuit being coordinated by the Our America Initiative, and adds credible voices to the growing discontent with the CPD’s persistent exclusion of qualified third party and independent candidates from the nationally-televised debate stage.” ###

Tuesday
May192015

NHDP - ICYMI: Bloomberg/Saint Anselm Poll: Two Thirds of NH Voters Support Same-Sex Marriage 

The latest from Bloomberg: “Opposition to gay marriage could present a liability for presidential candidates stumping for votes in New Hampshire. Two-thirds of likely general-election voters in the state that holds the nation's first presidential primary, including about half of Republican primary voters, say same-sex marriage should be legal in every state, according to a new Bloomberg Politics/Saint Anselm New Hampshire Poll.”
 
Unfortunately for New Hampshire, the GOP 2016 presidential field strongly disagrees.

In case you're keeping track: 

Jeb Bush“I believe in traditional marriage, so that’s worked pretty well for our country and for Western civilization for thousands of years.”
And yesterday, Jeb Bush said that Christian business owners should be able to refuse to serve gay weddings.
 
Marco Rubio“You have to have a ridiculous and absurd reading of the U.S. constitution to reach the conclusion that people have a right to marry someone of the same sex.”
 
Ted Cruz“Today’s Democratic Party has become so radicalized for legalizing gay marriage in all 50 states that there is no longer any room for religious liberty.”
 
Rand Paul Calling same-sex unions marriages “offends myself and a lot of people.”
 
Scott Walker“Our state passed a constitutional amendment defining marriage as between a man and woman. I voted for it. I support it in the federal courts and continue to believe it’s a good idea.”
 
Chris Christie“I am not a fan of same-sex marriage.”
 
Bobby Jindal“I’m holding firm against gay marriage.”

 
Bloomberg: New Hampshire Poll: Voters Strongly Favor Expanding Gay-Marriage Rights

BLOOMBERG // DAVID KNOWLES

Opposition to gay marriage could present a liability for presidential candidates stumping for votes in New Hampshire. 

Two-thirds of likely general-election voters in the state that holds the nation's first presidential primary, including about half of Republican primary voters, say same-sex marriage should be legal in every state, according to a new Bloomberg Politics/Saint Anselm New Hampshire Poll.

Support was far greater among Democrats, with 85 percent of likely primary voters indicating that they favor expanding gay-marriage rights to every state, 8 percent opposing the idea, and 6 percent saying they were not sure. Among Republicans, 49 percent said they supported expansion. 

Wednesday
May062015

Poll: Iowa and New Hampshire Voters Support Arctic Drilling, Say Energy is Important Issue in 2016 Race

Primary State Voters Weigh In on Energy and the Presidential Election

 

Continuing the trend of energy policy as a key issue in nationwide elections, voters in Iowa and New Hampshire showed overwhelming support for U.S. energy leadership in Arctic offshore energy production.  The results show offshore energy policy is an important focus even for both Iowa and New Hampshire voters, just as Presidential candidates start canvassing the states.

 

A new poll by Consumer Energy Alliance (CEA) shows Iowa voters support Arctic offshore energy production by a 20 point margin (52% support - 32% oppose). New Hampshire voters also support Arctic offshore energy production by a 19 point margin (54% support - 35% oppose). As the administrative process moves forward on offshore exploration in the Arctic, candidates will need to stake out a position on the issue in the upcoming primary season.

 

Importantly for candidates, more than 80 percent of both Iowa and New Hampshire voters say energy issues will be a key factor in how they make decisions in the 2016 presidential election. In Iowa, 34 percent say energy issues will be “very important” to their decision (Total important 84% - not important 13%). In New Hampshire, 37 percent say energy issues will be “very important” to their decision (Total important 86% - not important 13%). Consumer Energy Alliance found similar sentiments in key states prior to the 2014 elections.

 

“Candidates for 2016 races will have to have a strong position on energy related issues in general and on Arctic exploration specifically,” said David Holt, President of Consumer Energy Alliance. “CEA’s research shows that support for a robust domestic energy policy that use all of America’s energy resources is key to a candidate's chances of victory.  CEA’s poll shows that it will be difficult for any Presidential candidate to travel to Iowa or New Hampshire without a strong position on U.S. Arctic energy production.”

 

“The United States is in the initial stages of an Energy Revolution,” added Holt.  “Voters are pretty clear.  We should keep our economy moving forward through a robust energy program that includes Arctic development. This result also provides additional support to the recently released National Petroleum Council study that concluded the U.S. should pursue Arctic development to help maintain our energy self-sufficiency.”

 

The results also showed that Hillary Clinton is favored among Democratic caucus participants in both Iowa and New Hampshire. While no Republican candidate for President is yet a favorite in Iowa, Jeb Bush and Scott Walker are the current leaders in New Hampshire.