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NHDP - Concord Monitor: Poll: Democratic incumbents leading in U.S. Senate, governor races 

Concord Monitor: Poll: Democratic incumbents leading in U.S. Senate, governor races

Monitor staff

Democratic incumbents are leading in the U.S. Senate, congressional and governor races, according to a New England College Poll released yesterday.

In the tightest race, U.S. Rep. Carol Shea-Porter leads Republican challenger Frank Guinta 46 percent to 41.6 in the 1st Congressional District race.

U.S. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen is leading her Republican opponent, Scott Brown, by about 10 points, according to the poll. Shaheen pulled in 51 percent among likely, registered voters, compared with Brown’s 41.2 percent.


In the 2nd Congressional District, incumbent U.S. Rep. Annie Kuster leads Marilinda Garcia 49.6 percent to 36.7 among likely, registered voters.


Gov. Maggie Hassan is leading Republican opponent Walt Havenstein by some 15 points, according to the poll.

The poll, conducted between Sept. 10 and 11, has a margin of error of about 4 percent and draws from a sample of 630 registered voters.


Citizens For A Strong NH - Latest CSNH poll gives Brown the edge against Shaheen 


CSNH's Latest Poll:
Scott Brown leads Senator Jeanne Shaheen by almost 2 points: 45.9% to 44.3%


(September 15, 2014) - Today, Magellan Strategies BR released the results of a New Hampshire statewide survey conducted September 10-11, 2014. The automated survey of 2,214 likely voters has a margin of error of +/- 2.0%.  The survey was commissioned by Citizens for a Strong New Hampshire. 

WMUR-TV's James Pindell first reported on the poll earlier today.

Download the full summary by clicking HERE.

Download the survey presentation by clicking HERE.

Summary Findings:

  • Scott Brown leads Jeanne Shaheen by almost 2 points (45.9% Brown/44.3% Shaheen/9.8% undecided) in the U.S. Senate race.
  • Terrorism and border security trump Obamacare as most important issues.
  • Obama's job approval drops 3 points.
  • Republicans have a 10 point lead on the generic ballot.

Brown's lead is in part the result of solidifying the GOP base.

  • Brown's support among Republicans has grown by 5 points since July. He now leads Shaheen among registered Republicans by 64 points (79% Brown/14% Shaheen/7% undecided). More important for Brown's campaign is the fact that his support among Republican voters has intensified. In July, Brown's overall support among Republicans, 74%, was the sum of 49% definitely Brown and 25% probably Brown. Currently, Brown's overall support among Republican voters is the sum of 68% definitely Brown and 11% probably Brown.

Scott Brown's lead is also the result of his growing support among women, independents and soft Democrats.

  • Shaheen's lead among female voters has declined by 42% since July. In July, Shaheen led among females by 19 points (34% Brown/53% Shaheen/13% undecided). Currently, she leads among female voters by 11 points (39% Brown/50% Shaheen/11% undecided).
  • In July, Shaheen led Brown among independent voters by 11 points (35% Brown/46% Shaheen/19% undecided). Currently, her lead has been cut to 1 point (42% Brown/43% Shaheen/15% undecided).
  • Shaheen's support among soft Democrats has dropped 18 points since July. In July, Shaheen led among soft Democrats by 45 points (22% Brown/68% Shaheen/10% undecided). Currently Shaheen leads by only 19 points (31% Brown/50% Shaheen/18% undecided).


The protracted negative political environment is beginning to cut deeper into key swing voting groups' attitudes and opinions, which is shaping a GOP friendly electorate.

  • Republican support on the generic ballot has increased by 4.5 points. The generic Republican candidate now leads by 10 points.
  • Among independent voters, the generic GOP candidate now leads by 10 points (40% GOP candidate/30% Democrat candidate/30% undecided). In July, the generic GOP candidate led by only 3.8 points (32.4% GOP candidate/28.6% Democrat candidate/38.9% undecided).
  • Among female voters, the generic GOP candidate now leads by 1 point (42% GOP candidate/41% Democrat candidate/16% undecided). In July, the generic GOP candidate was down 6 points among female voters (36% GOP candidate/42% Democrat candidate/22% undecided).


Among undecided voters, Shaheen will have a steeper hill to climb.

  • % of undecided voter who approve of President Obama's job performance: 11%
  • % of undecided voter who think things in the country are going in the right direction: 19%
  • % of undecided voters who have a favorable opinion of Shaheen: 23%


Click HERE to read the full results of CSNH's latest poll.

Click HERE to read more about CSNH's poll from July, 2014.


NHDP - New Poll Shows Shaheen Leading Brown By 8, 51-43 

To:             Interested Parties
From:        Kiley &Company
Re:            Results of Survey on New Hampshire Senate Race
Date:         September 15, 2014

            On Sept. 9, 10 and 11, Kiley & Company interviewed a representative sample of 600 New Hampshire voters likely to cast ballots in the November election. Respondents were randomly selected from a NH voter file and were interviewed on both landlines and cell phones. The party breakdown of the sample is: 30% Repub; 27% Dem; and 43% Ind/Other. The margin of error for these results is +/- 4%.
Key Findings
Jeanne Shaheen is maintaining her majority-level lead over Scott Brown.
–      Shaheen leads Brown, 51% to 43% – the same eight-point lead we saw in our early September survey. (50% to 42%)
–      Shaheen leads by 24 points among women; Brown leads by 10 points among men.
–      Shaheen leads, 91% to 7%, among Democrats and by 50% to 42% among Independents.  Brown leads, 78% to 16%, among Republicans.
Shaheen’s ratings are positive, while Brown’s are negative.
–      Shaheen’s ratings are 50-45, compared to Brown’s 38-51.
–      Among women, Shaheen’s ratings are +18 and Brown’s are -24.
Shaheen’s biggest margins: protecting women; and being committed to NH.
–      In direct comparisons on key traits, Shaheen is overwhelmingly seen as the better choice on:  protecting the rights of women (+42) and being committed to New Hampshire (+37).
–      Shaheen is ahead on all other positive attributes, including:  will protect Medicare/SS (+18); really cares about people like me (+18); and is someone I can trust (+15).
–      Brown’s only margin over Shaheen is on a negative dimension: being too close to wealthy special interests (-24).


NHDP Memo on Tomorrow's GOP Gubernatorial Primary Election 

To: Interested Parties
From: Ray Buckley, Chair of the New Hampshire Democratic Party
Date: September 8, 2014
Re: Tuesday's Primary - Anything short of an overwhelming win for failed CEO Walt Havenstein would deal a heavy blow to his campaign heading into general election

Heading into the Tuesday primary election, all signs point to failed CEO Walt Havenstein winning by a wide margin against his Republican gubernatorial primary opponent, Andrew Hemingway. Given Walt's significantly larger campaign war chest and backing by the Republican establishment, anything short of an overwhelming victory for Walt on Tuesday night would deal a heavy blow to his campaign moving into the general election.

By dumping nearly $1.5 million of his own money into his campaign, which translates into roughly 75 percent of his total so-called fundraising, Havenstein “raised” over $2 million, according to September 3rd campaign finance filings. In contrast, Hemingway raised just north of $100,000 total, less than even some state senate candidates.

That self-funding advantage enabled Havenstein to outspend Hemingway by a ratio of nearly 18-to-1. For weeks, Havenstein was the only candidate in the GOP gubernatorial primary to go up on broadcast and cable TV, spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on campaign ads touting his Koch Brothers agenda and desperately attempting to cover up his record of mismanagement at SAIC that cost the company thousands of jobs and millions of dollars.

Throughout the primary, Havenstein also dedicated significant resources to radio ads and a robust direct mail program. Hemingway largely campaigned without paid advertisements and no indication of a direct mail program.

In comparison, during the 2012 Democratic gubernatorial primary both Governor Hassan and Jackie Cilley were up on TV and their spending differential was far closer at less than 4-to-1, according to September 5th, 2012 campaign finance filings.

And as the Republican Governors Association's (RGA) hand-picked candidate, Havenstein has also shored up much of the Republican establishment to back his campaign. National and state-level Republican establishment figures in Havenstein's corner include former 2012 GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney, U.S. Senator Kelly Ayotte,
U.S. Senator John McCain, former New Hampshire Governor and U.S. Senator Judd Gregg, former New Hampshire Governor Steve Merrill, State Senate President Chuck Morse, State Senate Majority Leader Jeb Bradley, and State Senators Russell Prescott, John Reagan, Bob Odell, Andy Sanborn and Sharon Carson.

Despite Havenstein's rocky campaign launch and re-occurring stumbles that triggered the Tea Party base to search for an alternative, Hemingway failed to capitalize on Havenstein's flaws enough to run a competitive campaign.

Taking these extraordinary advantages into account, if Havenstein can't pull off anything less than an overwhelming margin of victory in tomorrow's primary election, then Havenstein's campaign is in far worse shape for the general election than what already appears.

Rubens For US Senate - The Rubens Surge Continues  

A weekend poll by PPP shows Rubens surging, cutting the gap with Brown in half. The same poll shows Bob Smith trailing badly. The Brown campaign is clearly worried, as shown by their activity yesterday.

We are hearing this message as we talk to voters, and on radio shows and social media platforms. Voters who are looking to nominate a candidate that reflects core New Hampshire Republican principles are uniting behind Jim Rubens. Just a few examples:

Political pundit Dr. Wayne Lesperance appeared on WGIR today and was asked if he foresaw any surprises on Tuesday. He didn't predict a Rubens win, but did say "I think probably the biggest possible surprise will be if Jim Rubens broke through and won the senate primary. There is a whole lot of noise coming out all over the place about surging in polls, saying Jim Rubens is really pushing out."

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