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Entries in Polls (229)

Friday
Apr172015

Public Policy Polling Media Alert: NH Senate, Governor's Race Both Look Like Toss Ups if Hassan Challenges Ayotte 

Public Policy Polling's newest New Hampshire survey finds that a high powered match up between Republican incumbent Kelly Ayotte and Democratic Governor Maggie Hassan for the Senate next year would start out as a toss up. Hassan gets 46% to 45% for Ayotte. Independents split evenly in such a contest- Hassan has the slightest of advantages because she wins over 12% of Republicans while Ayotte only gets 8% of Democrats.

There's a much greater spread between Hassan and Ayotte when it comes to approval ratings. Hassan is popular with a 53/34 spread, while voters are considerably more divided on Ayotte with her coming in at 40/43. A large part of the disparity comes from how popular the duo are within their own parties- 85% of Democrats think Hassan is doing a good job compared to only 64% of Republicans who approve of Ayotte. Hassan also has more support across party lines though with 26% of GOP voters approving of her to only 15% of Democrats who give Ayotte good marks. But since most voters ultimately choose their party in a head to head, that's much closer.

Hassan running may be vital to Democrats' ability to make the seat competitive. In a hypothetical contest with the state's Democratic member of Congress, Ann McLane Kuster, Ayotte leads by a 49/38 spread. There has been some discussion about a primary challenge to Ayotte by 2010 foe Ovide Lamontagne but she's not too vulnerable to that, leading him 57/32 in a hypothetical contest. Lamontagne actually does lead Ayotte 53/38 among Tea Party voters, but that's only 21% of the Republican electorate at this point and Ayotte easily dispenses him with everyone else. It's good news for Republicans that Lamontagne's not well positioned for a primary challenge because he trails Hassan 54/35 and Kuster 43/39 in prospective Senate contests.

If Hassan runs for reelection as Governor instead of for the Senate she'll start out in a very strong position. We find her leading the trio of Republicans we tested by anywhere from 17 to 30 points- it's 52/35 over Chris Sununu, 53/36 over Jeb Bradley, and 55/25 over Donnalee Lozeau.

If Hassan doesn't run things look pretty darn wide open. The Democratic alternatives we tested- Jackie Cilley and Colin Van Ostern- have very low name recognition at 27% and 20% respectively. The Republicans we tested aren't really terribly well known either- Sununu comes in at 61% name recognition, Bradley at 53%, and Lozeau at 20%. Match ups between these 5 feature lots of undecideds. Bradley leads both Cilley and Van Ostern 37/31. Sununu leads them by smaller margins- 37/34 over Van Ostern and 37/36 over Cilley. The Democrats- 32/26 for Cilley and 31/27 for Van Ostern- have small advantages over Lozeau. But at any rate the Governor's race looks pretty wide open if Hassan moves on.

 

This analysis is also available on our website:

 

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/04/hassan-ayotte-match-would-be-tightly-contested.html

 

I’m not attaching the full results because the file is so large, but you can see those here:

 

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NH_41615.pdf

Tuesday
Apr072015

NHDP - ICYMI: Kelly Ayotte Takes Heat for Playing Politics With Human Trafficking 

Polling Shows: “76% of self-identified moderates and 60% of self-identified conservative leaners said that a vote for this abortion restriction provision would make them less likely to support Kelly Ayotte in 2016”
 
Concord, N.H. - As Kelly Ayotte continues to side with GOP leadership against trafficking victims, local and national outlets highlighted a new TV ad criticizing Ayotte from leading women's health group NARAL Pro-Choice America.
 
NARAL also released a polling memo showing Ayotte’s position is “out of step with the values of voters across the ideological spectrum” and “would make them less likely to support Kelly Ayotte in 2016.”
 
See below for a coverage roundup:
 
NH1 News: Steinhauser: New TV ad attacks Ayotte over abortion
 
Coming to New Hampshire television: A new ad criticizing Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte's position in a heated battle over a bill that would assist victims of sex trafficking.
 
NARAL Pro-Choice America says it’s going up with a 30 second spot on cable statewide in the Granite State that urges Ayotte to end what they describe as her “obstruction” of the measure because it allows victims access to abortion.
 
“Women and girls sold into labor and sex trafficking against their will. Their freedom stolen. They’re tortured and repeatedly raped. Eighty percent ending up pregnant, often multiple times. A Senate bill would help survivors of sex trafficking get their lives back on track, but Sen. Kelly Ayotte refuses to support it unless survivors are denied access to abortion care,” says the narrator in the commercial.

“Call Sen. Ayotte and tell her it’s wrong to use survivors as political pawns. Support a clean Justice for Victims of Trafficking Act,” adds the narrator as the spot concludes.
 
NARAL Pro-Choice America, a national non-profit organization that engages in political action to expand access to abortion and oppose abortion restrictions, says their commercial will run for a week on the three major cable news networks, CNN, Fox News Channel, and MSNBC. [Full article]
 
Huffington Post: NARAL Launches Ads Against GOP Senators Over Human Trafficking Bill
 
NARAL Pro-Choice America launched a TV ad campaign Friday against a handful of GOP senators up for reelection in 2016, lambasting them for their votes on a recent human trafficking bill.
 
The ads will target Sens. Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.), Richard Burr (R-N.C.), Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) and Mark Kirk (R-Ill.). They will run on Fox, MSNBC and CNN in each state for a week.
 
“It’s disturbing to watch these senators put their own ideology ahead of the lives of women who have been through so much already,” said NARAL President Ilyse Hogue. “The bill’s clear intention is to help survivors of human trafficking regain control of their lives, yet the first thing these senators want to do is tell them they can’t even have control over their own bodies.” [Full article]
 
Politico: Abortion rights group goes on the air in swing states
 
NARAL Pro-Choice America will hit key swing states with a TV ad campaign today, accusing Republican senators of holding up the sex-trafficking bill in Congress by adding language to ban abortion coverage. The group bought airtime in Illinois (Kirk), Wisconsin (Johnson), New Hampshire (Ayotte) and North Carolina (Burr), playing statewide for one week on CNN, MSNBC and Fox. [Full article]
 
The Hill: Pro-abortion-rights group slams senators over trafficking bill
 
NARAL Pro-Choice America rolled out TV ads this week against four Republican senators up for reelection in 2016, targeting them for an anti-trafficking bill that stalled over a fight on abortion.
 
The group launched TV spots against GOP Sens. Mark Kirk (Ill.), Kelly Ayotte (N.H.), Ron Johnson (Wis.) and Richard Burr (N.C.).
 
... The anti-trafficking bill, which would increase resources for law enforcement and trafficking victims, was expected to be a bipartisan success in the Senate. Democrats, however, are objecting to the legislation because it includes the Hyde Amendment, which restricts the use of federal funds on abortions.
 
If the legislation passed with the abortion language intact, a victims fund that gets its money through criminal finds would be subjected to the abortion restrictions. Democrats argue that is an expansion of Hyde, which they say is normally limited to appropriations bills. [Full article]
 
Washington Examiner: Human trafficking bill becomes 2016 fodder
 
A pro-abortion rights group is using a recent standoff over a human trafficking bill to attack vulnerable Senate Republicans.
 
NARAL Pro-Choice America said Friday it's running a week-long series of ads on Fox, MSNBC and CNN attacking Reps. Mark Kirk of Illinois, Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire, Richard Burr of North Carolina and Ron Johnson of Wisconsin. All four are up for re-election in 2016. [Full article]
Monday
Nov032014

Guinta For Congress (CD1) - Final New England College Poll Shows Guinta Up By 9%  

 Polling and Momentum on Guinta's Side Going Into Election Day

MANCHESTER - A new poll released last night by New England College shows Frank Guinta leading Carol Shea-Porter by 9.3%. The IVR poll of 778 likely voters was conducted from October 31 to November 1 and shows Guinta at 52.2% and Shea-Porter at 42.9% with a 3.51% margin of error.

This comes on the heels of Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia Center of Politics moving the race from "Toss Up" to "Leans Republican," and a WMUR/UNH poll released last night predicting a Guinta victory.

Jay Ruais, Campaign Manager for Frank Guinta for Congress, released the following statement:

"These polling numbers speak to the consistent positive momentum Frank is gaining with New Hampshire voters. The message Frank hears as he travels the district is resoundingly clear: Granite Staters want an independent voice for New Hampshire values who will balance our budget, get our economy moving, and put people first. With the polling and momentum on our side, Frank is in a great position to win on Tuesday."

 

Friday
Oct242014

NHDP - In Case You Missed It: Four Polls In Four Days Show Shaheen With Steady Lead 

Manchester, NH--In case you missed it, four polls released since Monday have shown Jeanne Shaheen with a steady lead over Scott Brown. In all the polling, Scott Brown was viewed negatively compared to Shaheen, further proving that voters here in New Hampshire don’t trust him and are still questioning his motives to move here from Massachusetts.

On Tuesday, the crowd at the NECN debate in Concord laughed at Brown when he tried to explain his reasoning for moving to New Hampshire after losing his race in Massachusetts.  The crowd also laughed at Brown when he falsely claimed he never voted to outsource jobs.

To date, Scott Brown and his Wall Street, Big Oil have spent more than $12 million against Senator Shaheen.


Suffolk: Shaheen leads 49-46. Brown’s favorability in the survey is negative 9, while Shaheen’s is plus 7. 

UMass/WBZ: Shaheen leads 48-45. Brown’s favorability is negative 13, Shaheen’s is plus 6.

PPP: Shaheen leads 49-45. Brown’s favorability is negative 4, Shaheen’s is plus 5.

CNN: Shaheen leads 49-47. Brown’s favorability is negative 2, Shaheen’s is plus 7. 

Thursday
Oct232014

NHDP - ICYMI: Shaheen Leads Brown in Latest Poll

Brown’s Favorability Still Underwater
 

Manchester, NH— Despite millions in negative and false attacks from his Wall Street and Big Oil allies, Jeanne Shaheen is still leading Scott Brown 49-45% in a Public Policy Polling poll released today. The poll also showed more people still view Scott Brown unfavorably than favorably by four percentage points. 

This is the third poll in recent days that shows Senator Shaheen leading Brown. To view a pdf version of the poll, click here.


TALKING POINTS MEMO: Poll: Shaheen Maintains Modest Lead Over Brown In New Hampshire
By CAITLIN MACNEAL
OCTOBER 22, 2014, 3:59 PM EDT

Incumbent Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) still leads former Sen. Scott Brown (R-MS) in the New Hampshire Senate race, according to a Public Policy Polling poll sponsored by the League of Conservation Voters released on Wednesday.

Among likely voters, 49 percent said they supported Shaheen and 45 percent said they supported Brown.

Shaheen has held at least a small lead in most polls since the beginning of the race, though her lead has narrowed since June. In the last PPP poll released in September found Shaheen with a 6-point lead.

According to TPM's Polltracker average, Shaheen leads Brown by 3.4 points.