Rep Steve Vaillancourt


NH And US House And Senate Predictions In A Nutshell

Having spent quite a bit of time detailing and updating predictions in recent weeks, I thought Labor Day is a good time to bring them all together.  Let's look at how things stood at of the 2012 election, then go back to my January 1, 2014 projection, and finally make any adjustments necessary (which will dated September 1).  I know, I'm ahead of schedule for once; that's what a weekend in Vermont will do for you; it's time to hit Otter Creek and Vergennes Old Home Days.


United States House

2012 Election--Republicans 234, Democrats 201

January 1, 2014 Prediction--+8 Republicans--242 Republicans, 193 Democrats

September 1, 2014 Prediction--No Change--+8 Republicans--242 Republicans, 193 Democrats

National pundits agree that Republicans will pick up a few seats but not all that many since they basically maxed out in 2010 and 2012.  Expect the African American Mia Love, who barely lost in 2012, to win easily in Utah.  Frank Guinta is now favored to defeat Carol Shea Porter in the first New Hampshire CD.


United States Senate--FLIP

2012 Election--Democrats (with two independents) 55, Republicans 45

January 1, 2014 Prediction--+7 Republicans--Republicans 52, Democrats 48

September 1, 2014--No Change--+7 Republicans--Republicans 52, Democrats 48

I'm still going with West Virginia, South Dakota, Montana, Arkansas, Louisiana, North Carolina, and Alaska.  Not Iowa, not Colorado, not New Hampshire although all three could also go Republican in a sweep year. Consider this as an indication of how unpopular Democratic leader Harry Reid is--Georgia Democratic candidate Michelle Nunn just announced that were she to win (not gonna happen), she won't necessarily vote for Reid for leader.



New Hampshire House--FLIP

2012 Election--Democrats 221, Republicans 179

January 1, 2014 Prediction--+32 Republicans--211 Republicans, 189 Democrats

September 1, 2014 Prediction--+59 Republicans--238 Republicans, 162 Democrats

Even most honest Democrats now admit they will lose control of the House.  It's only a question of by how much.  Every time I look at these races, I come up with more Republican gains, and I suspect my new number is on the low side. The swing won't be quite as large as for Republicans in 2010 or for Democrats in 2012, but the Republican lead will be comfortable (even moreso considering there are far fewer "RINOs" today than six years ago).


New Hampshire Senate

2012 Election--13 Republicans, 11 Democrats

January 1, 2014 Prediction--+1 Republican--14 Republicans, 10 Democrarts

September 1, 2014 Prediction--+2 Republicans--15 Republicans, 9 Democrats

Democrat Peg Gilmour loses in District 12 (three Nashua wards, Hollis and out to New Ipswich) and in a sweep year against a good opponent, Andrew Hosmer could be in trouble in District 7 (Laconia, Gilford, Belmont, Franklin).  However, keep your eye on District 4 (Dover, Somersworth).  Although a highly Democratic district, Democrat Senator David Watters underperformed two years ago and the prospect of Eddie Edwards, an African American Republican, is just too delicous to ignore, so a 16-8 Republican edge is within the realm of possibility.


New Hampshire Executive Council--FLIP

2012 Election--3 Democrats, 2 Republicans

January 1, 2014 Prediction--Not Made

Septemer 1, 2014 Prediction--+1 Republican--3 Republicans, 2 Democrats

David Wheeler shoud easily return with a win in District 5; even Deb Pignatelli would not have been able to hold the seat this year, and she's bowed out.   However, it's even worse than the numbers indicate for Democrats because Joe Kenney in District 1 is much more conservative than long-time Councilor Ray Burton who passed away this past year.  Democrats are wrong if they think they can beat Kenney; their best shot was in the low turnout special election, and they blew it. 


59-32% Want Government To "Leave Me Alone"

Almost lost in the middle of a long and extensive poll from Fox News (question 16) earlier this month is a result which, for me personally at least, is the best polling news of all.  Yes, it's even better than the universal increased support for both marriage equality and legalization of marijuana, the two causes most dear to me.

By nearly a two to one margin (59-32 percent), Americans would prefer that government "leave me alone" to "lend me a hand".

This is a dramatic turnabout from the 53-37 percent margin two years ago and the small 50-44 percent margin in favor of "leave me alone" in 2011.

Why is this such a big deal?

Because this question goes to the very heart of what we believe government should be doing either for us or to us.  It aligns perfectly with my philosophy of government.  "Government should get out of my wallet; out of my bed; and off my back."

I've used that line so often that I'm no longer sure I made it up or cleverly "borrowed" it from some other great Libertarian thinker.

Whichever the case, this latest data shows that more and more Americans have come to believe that, as Jefferson warned us, "Government which governs least governs best", that the best thing government could do for us is--to quote the exact language of the poll--"leave me alone".

Left wingers, I imagine, would like nothing better than to pooh-pooh these numbers with the excuse that they are, after all, from Fox News.

However, that just won't play because in this very same Fox News Poll, Barack Obama does much better than in just about any other poll out there; he's taken a jump up to "only" negative seven points (42-49); and if that's not enough to convince Democrats of the validity of these numbers, consider this. 

The very same poll, unlike all other polling data, has Democrats ahead comfortably 46-39 in the generic ballot.

Thus, one cannot say that pollsters simply got hold an outrageously conservative or libertarian group of people.

Far from it.  As always, other polls would be useful for confirmation, but since Fox News has asked this question three times now in the past four years, we certainly have a legitimate benchmark for sentiment.

This poll is such great news because it proves that the spirit of the founding fathers manages to live on...even when government promises more and more handouts.  Note for example, the recent Jeanne Shaheen for Senate ad promising more and more.

You can't continue to give everyone more and more without somebody paying more and more or without the profligate spenders simply adding more trillions to the national debt.

We don't need a hand-out; we simply want to be left alone.

That's what Americans are saying, and to that I say, "Amen."

Here are the numbers.  Now, I can go back to looking for the latest batch of good news of the marriage equality and legalization front.

16.  If you could send just one of the following two messages to the federal government right now, would it be “lend me a hand” or would it be “leave me alone”?

                             Aug 14   Aug 12    Oct 11

Lend me a hand       32%    37%      44%
Leave me alone       59%     53%      50%
Here's a link to the entire poll

Obama At Minus 22 In NH--That's The Real Story

The WMUR Granite State poll, from Andy Smith at UNH, showing Missouri-native Jeanne Shaheen now in a dead heat with Scott Brown exploded like a tidal wave across the political landscape today.

However, there may be far worse news for Democrats than the 46-44 lead for Shaheen over Brown.

According to the UNH numbers, President Barack Obama is now 22 points (37-59) under water in New Hampshire.  That's more than twice as much as nationwide; Obama's actually experienced a slight blip up and now is "only" down ten points in the RCP average.

If this 22 point deficit for Obama in New Hamsphire is anywhere near correct (and I've always trusted the UNH numbers), then Democrats up and down the ticket will be in even worse trouble than I had in my projection a couple weeks ago; I had the NH House going 239-161 Republican and the Senate going 15-9 Republican.  

As I've always said, "Top of the ticket matters", and a minus 22 at the top could sink all Democratic ships (except of course in the traditional liberal bastions such as Keene, Concord, Portsmouth, Durham, Lebanon/Hanover, and Berlin).

I was about to predict that Republicans would gain one Executive Council seat (David Wheeler in the Nashua area), but unless Obama's numbers pick up, Democrat Chris Pappas could also be in trouble in Manchester (unless of course Republicans do something stupid like nominating the incompetent Bobby Burns again--I agree with the Union Leader on this one--vote for Adams on Sept. 9).

Even incumbent Manchester Democratic Senators, Lou D'Allesandro in District 16 and Donna Soucy in District 18, might not be safe.

I'm not ready to predict that, but these UNH numbers couldn't be worse for Democrats.

Compounding the pain will be poor Democratic turnout, set in motion by what should be a pathetic primary turnout.

A Washington Post story, run by Real Clear Politics today, tells the sad story for Democrats. In the mid-summer poll which showed Shaheen ahead of Brown by 12 points, more Democrats than Republicans were included in the survey (37R-42D).  That's not the way it was for the most recent poll (40R-39D) it's not the way it was in 2012 actual voting (30R-27D); and it certainly won't be the way it is come this November.  

Results, of course, are closely tied to just who is surveyed.

As my black jack dealing cousin Eddie used to say, "Read 'em and weep."

Democrats will certainly want to weep when they read this turnout chart released today. 

Here's a link to the story; trust me, the charts alone make this worth a click. 

I checked the Huffington Post Pollster site, and some on the left are discounting the UNH poll, noting that we need confirmation before taking it as gospel. Harry Enten at joins that chorus (another link), and indeed it's always good to have more than one poll.  However, wanna bet that the next few polls are pretty much in line with the UNH numbers?


Don’t Be So Quick To Call The New Hampshire Senate Race A Tie


97 Percent Broke The Law Last Hour

Unlike in New Hampshire, they offer free (donations) coffee here.

From the wonderful Vietnam Veterans Memorial Rest area, about 10 miles into Vermont.  My brother has dinner waiting so, this will be quick.

To quote Jack Webb from Dragnet, "Just the facts m'aam; just the facts."

These are the facts.

For the 60 miles on Interstate 89 between Concord and Lebanon between 5:45 and 6:45 p..m. on this Friday, the 22nd day of August, 2014, I stuck to the 65 mile an hour speed limit.

Exactly 60 cars passed me, thus breaking the speed limit; that would be one a minute.

How many cars did I have to pass to maintain the 65 mile an hour speed, you may ask.

Thank you for asking.

The answer is TWO, and one of the two was hauling a piece of heavy equipment.

That's also a fact.

60-2, that's the number of law breakers on today's little excursion.  

Most were not going real fast--that's an observation more than a fact.  In other words, most would have been law abiding citizens had the Represenatives of the great and good General Court of New Hampshire passed my bill to raise the limit to 70 miles an hour (as Maine recently did) last winter.

The fact is that the law made 97 percent of travelers on this rainy Friday criminals.


The Worst Of Times For "Dignitary" Shaheen


Jeanne Shaheen and Scott Brown


To paraphrase the first line of Charles Dickens' A Tale of Two Cities, "For Jeanne Shaheen, it was the worst of times; it was the worst of times."

According to the new WMUR Granite State Poll (from Andy Smith at UNH), Shaheen's 12-point lead over Scott Brown from a month ago is all but gone.  It's down to within the margin of error, 46-44 percent, and it could be even worse than that.  I can't wait to see the internals of this poll because I've said for months now that Brown will get a bounce when (and if) he wins the September primary and Republicans begin to come home.  If in fact Brown is not yet polling well among Republicans, he could actually be ahead of Shaheen when the mid-September bounce comes.

It was the worst of times.
Missouri-native Shaheen is also leading the other two Republicans in the field, former Senator Bob Smith and former State Senator Jim Rubens, by only 14 points.  It begins to look like Brown may not be the only one who could oust the Missouri native come November.

It was the worst of times.
One cannot imagine that Shaheen's kerfuffle with a chicken earlier this week is the reason for the narrowing of the polls, but perhaps the episode is symbolic of Shaheen's troubles.
In the Channel 9 report of the chicken-dressed Republican operative arrested for the unpardonable sin (sarcasm, some say, is the lowest form of humor; I disagree) of getting too close to "the dignitary" at a parade, that's the word actually used--dignitary.  I'm not making this up; I saw it with my own eyes.

What could be worse for a candidate than to be described as a "dignitary"?  I guess Your Royal Highness or perhaps Your Excellency would be a bit worse, but you get the picture.

It was the worst of times.
The chicken apparently ruffled Shaheen's feathers to the point where she either asked the police to intervene or did not object to police intervention.  So much for free speech from Democratic candidates!  One can only imagine what Shaheen and Company would do if forced to react to the free speech efforts back in her native Missouri (Ferguson) this week.
Outrage is the best term for a "dignitary" being so upset by a chicken that police need to be called in.
Of course chickens are not new to the political stage.  I seem to recall how Democrats have used similar chicken suits in the past, apparently without any of the Democratic chickens being arrested.
I guess it all depends on whose ox is being gored...or perhaps whose feathers are being plucked.

Speaking of chickens, I certainly can't be the only one who remembers current Democratic Chair Raymond Charles Buckley resorting to throwing hunks of real chicken in his 2004 campaign against Executive Councilor Ray Wieczorek. As I recall, Buckley, who lost to the Wiz by nearly 15,000 votes, actually threw frozen chicken at Wieczorek who apparently did not resort to asking to have Buckley, the chicken tosser, arrested.

When Democrats like Buckley pull a free speech ploy, that's fine.  
When Republicans do it, call in the swat team.  Next time, maybe Shaheen will be asking for tear gas to be deployed against chicken maligners.

Ah yes, it was the worst of times.
I suspect the real reason Shaheen is slippin in the polls, aside from being described as a "dignitary" is that at a time when new polling shows that by almost a two to one margins people would rather be left alone than helped by government, Shaheen typifies the nanny state or the big brother approach to government.  She is, after all, the reason the disastrous Obamacare actually passed and her commercials continue to stress the need...not to control the our porous have government intrude in loan rates charged to students.
Whoever came up with that ad ought to be fired forthwith (I trust it wasn't my friend Judy Reardon); the ad merely stresses what a big government slave Jeanne Shaheen was, is and will remain. 
Shaheen's lead today is merely chicken feed.  By mid-September,
I suspect the lead will have completely flown the coop.
Ah yes, it is worst of times.



shaheen chicken
  1. Twitchy ‎- 2 days ago
    Well, we at Twitchy certainly got a kick out of that photo of New Hampshire Democrat Sen. Jeanne Shaheen being stalked by a giantchicken for ...