Having spent quite a bit of time detailing and updating predictions in recent weeks, I thought Labor Day is a good time to bring them all together. Let's look at how things stood at of the 2012 election, then go back to my January 1, 2014 projection, and finally make any adjustments necessary (which will dated September 1). I know, I'm ahead of schedule for once; that's what a weekend in Vermont will do for you; it's time to hit Otter Creek and Vergennes Old Home Days.
United States House
2012 Election--Republicans 234, Democrats 201
January 1, 2014 Prediction--+8 Republicans--242 Republicans, 193 Democrats
September 1, 2014 Prediction--No Change--+8 Republicans--242 Republicans, 193 Democrats
National pundits agree that Republicans will pick up a few seats but not all that many since they basically maxed out in 2010 and 2012. Expect the African American Mia Love, who barely lost in 2012, to win easily in Utah. Frank Guinta is now favored to defeat Carol Shea Porter in the first New Hampshire CD.
United States Senate--FLIP
2012 Election--Democrats (with two independents) 55, Republicans 45
January 1, 2014 Prediction--+7 Republicans--Republicans 52, Democrats 48
September 1, 2014--No Change--+7 Republicans--Republicans 52, Democrats 48
I'm still going with West Virginia, South Dakota, Montana, Arkansas, Louisiana, North Carolina, and Alaska. Not Iowa, not Colorado, not New Hampshire although all three could also go Republican in a sweep year. Consider this as an indication of how unpopular Democratic leader Harry Reid is--Georgia Democratic candidate Michelle Nunn just announced that were she to win (not gonna happen), she won't necessarily vote for Reid for leader.
New Hampshire House--FLIP
2012 Election--Democrats 221, Republicans 179
January 1, 2014 Prediction--+32 Republicans--211 Republicans, 189 Democrats
September 1, 2014 Prediction--+59 Republicans--238 Republicans, 162 Democrats
Even most honest Democrats now admit they will lose control of the House. It's only a question of by how much. Every time I look at these races, I come up with more Republican gains, and I suspect my new number is on the low side. The swing won't be quite as large as for Republicans in 2010 or for Democrats in 2012, but the Republican lead will be comfortable (even moreso considering there are far fewer "RINOs" today than six years ago).
New Hampshire Senate
2012 Election--13 Republicans, 11 Democrats
January 1, 2014 Prediction--+1 Republican--14 Republicans, 10 Democrarts
September 1, 2014 Prediction--+2 Republicans--15 Republicans, 9 Democrats
Democrat Peg Gilmour loses in District 12 (three Nashua wards, Hollis and out to New Ipswich) and in a sweep year against a good opponent, Andrew Hosmer could be in trouble in District 7 (Laconia, Gilford, Belmont, Franklin). However, keep your eye on District 4 (Dover, Somersworth). Although a highly Democratic district, Democrat Senator David Watters underperformed two years ago and the prospect of Eddie Edwards, an African American Republican, is just too delicous to ignore, so a 16-8 Republican edge is within the realm of possibility.
New Hampshire Executive Council--FLIP
2012 Election--3 Democrats, 2 Republicans
January 1, 2014 Prediction--Not Made
Septemer 1, 2014 Prediction--+1 Republican--3 Republicans, 2 Democrats
David Wheeler shoud easily return with a win in District 5; even Deb Pignatelli would not have been able to hold the seat this year, and she's bowed out. However, it's even worse than the numbers indicate for Democrats because Joe Kenney in District 1 is much more conservative than long-time Councilor Ray Burton who passed away this past year. Democrats are wrong if they think they can beat Kenney; their best shot was in the low turnout special election, and they blew it.