Rep Steve Vaillancourt



Wednesday
Sep172014

90% Of UND Manchester Voters Reverted Back To UND 

                Thanks to Manchester City Clerk Matt Normand, we are provided an advance look at primary day registration, first time voters, and how Independents (officially known as Undeclared in New Hampshire) went last Tuesday.

                Keep in mind that these totals are only for Manchester; it’ll be a while until the Secretary of State’s office has the final statewide totals.

                New Hampshire state law allows for any Undeclared voter to take a primary ballot for either party and to actually revert to undeclared status before leaving the polling place.  Among others, I’ve fought hard for this “right” in the past, and indication from Manchester are that Undeclared voters clearly want to remain undeclared.  In the past, some Reps (sadly, mostly Reublicans) have attempted to force a three month waiting period before undeclared voters could revert back; I always thought of it as a three month hostage takeing! 

               89.3 percent of undeclared voters in Manchester (2645 of 2963) changed back to the undeclared status prior to leaving the polling place.  I suspect the number will be similar statewide.

                However, I was a bit surprised that 24.7 percent of Undeclared voters took a Democratic ballot (732 of the 2963); 75.3 percent (2231) took a Republican ballot.  Since there were very few contests on the Democratic side (Executive Councilor, County Commissioner only), one would have expected even fewer Undeclared voters to opt for a Democratic.  I’ll look for he number to be closer to 85-15 percent statewide; let’s make that an hypothesis.

                Equally as puzzling to me was a relatively high number of new voters.  Another great feature of New Hampshire law is that a voter can register and vote at the same time.

                One would have expected very few voters energized enough to come out and register Democratic since they then had to vote Democratic.

                Of 608 new registrants (that’s about 50 per ward, much more than I would have guessed), 263 registered Republican (43.3 percent), 249 undeclared (40.9 percent), and 96 Democratic (15.8 percent).

                With 7230 Manchester voters taking a Republican ballot, Undeclareds (2231) represented 30.8 percent.  With 5026 total Democratic ballots cast, Undeclareds (732) represented 14.6 percent.  Overall, of 12,256 total votes cast, the Undeclared total of 2963 represents 24.2 percent.

                My hypothesis is that we'll find Manchester slightly more Democratic than the overall state profile, no big revelation since registered Democrats enjoy a significant lead among the city's 52.228 regisltered voters.

                I may be the only one interested in such data (I suspect not) and for providing it so quickly, a big thanks to Matt Normand.  I’ll run the percentages statewide once the data is in…whether you want me to or not.

Monday
Sep152014

10% Of Democratic Primary Voters Rejected Shaheen

Let's begin with a hypothesis; that's what I always do when I look at primary voting patterns.

Let's start with a few givens.

With so few Democrats voting in last Tuesday's New Hampshire primary (around 44,000), one would think that only the real diehards would be casting ballots.

With all the action on the Republican side, one would think that about 90 percent of Undeclared voters opted to pick up Democratic ballots. Thus, the Democratic primary was by an large the domain of the true believers.

Even though Missouri-born Senator Jeanne Shaheen was unopposed, history shows us that we should never expect any candidate to receive the votes of all the people showing up for any primary.

The question becomes--how many people will blank a given candidate?

The higher up the ballot, the fewer number of blanks will be evident. In some State Rep races, some uncontested candidates receive less than 50 percent of available votes. In Ward 3 Manchester, for example, 171 Democratic ballots were cast in the primary; two State Representatives were chosen. Incumbent Rep. Jean Jeudy received only 87 votes, a rather pathetic 50.9 percent while incumbent Rep. Pat Long, also an alderman, received 139 votes, a very respectable 81.2 percent, especially respectable for such a down ballot position. In other words, in this very low turnout ward, 52 more blanks were left for Jeudy than for Brown.

That's all by way of explanation as to how we would go about forming a hypothesis.

I figured that with such a low turnout and with such high visibility, Jeanne Shaheen should receive a vote from 90-95 percent of those voting in the Democratic primary. That would be in line with internal numbers from the most recent UNH poll which showed Jeanne Shaheen taking all but a five or six percent of Democratic votes from Scott Brown.

As it turns out, this data is relatively easy to come by.

I began with Manchester since I had those numbers first. 3647 Democratic ballots were cast, and Shaheen received 3162 votes. That's only 86.7 percent. Thus, Shaheen fell short of our (or my) hypothesis. In fact, the virtually unheard of happened. In Wards 4, 10 and 11, uncontested State Senate candidate Lou D'Allesandro received more votes than Shaheen (228 to 223; 286-276; and 198-188). Even more astounding, in wards 5, 6, 7,8, and 9 combined, uncontested State Senate candidate Donna Soucy received more total votes than Shaheen 1260-1253.

When is the last time you've seen state senate candidates do better than a party's U.S. Senate candidate? Wow!

It took a while before the final numbers were on the Secretary of State's web site, but we have them now. In fact, Shaheen fared better than she did in Manchester. She received 39,282 Democratic votes out of 43,556 votes cast.

Calculator, please.

That's 90.2 percent, at the low end of our (my) hypothesis.

This cannot be good news for Shaheen or Democrats. Almost ten percent of the Democrats who were energized enough to go vote decided either leave the Jeanne Shaheen slot blank (or to write in someone).

This appears to be at odds with the high percentage of Democrats Shaheen was supposedly pulling in polls. Mind you, we're looking at actual results here, not opinion polls.

In fact, Shaheen received only 167 votes more than Governor Maggie Hassan (39,115) who had two opponents albeit not very serious opponents (1719 for Ian Freeman and 704 for Mrs. Terrio with 192 write-ins for Havenstein and 164 write-ins for Hemingway).

In other words, about 10 percent who voted in the Democratic primary actually went out of their way not to vote for Jeanne Shaheen.

How does this compare to Shaheen's virtually uncontested Senate primaries in 2002 and 2008?

Red books, please.

In 2002, Democratic primary turnout was higher, not because of Shaheen, but because pro income taxer Mark Fernald was opposing Bev Hollingworth for governor. 69,965 ballots were cast in the Democratic primary; Shaheen received 57,995 or 82.9 percent; Republican Bob Smith received 1087 Democratic write-ins while Republican John Sununu received 739. Shaheen went on to lose to John Sununu by 19,751 votes in November (Fernald lost to Craig Benson by almost 90,000 votes); I wasn't surprised since I had noted (on my old TV show) how Shaheen had been rejected by 17 percent of voters in the Democratic primary.

In the 2008 Democratic primary, 50,280 Democratic ballots were cast; Shaheen received 42,968 of them, but this is not as pure a comparison since another Democrat (Raymond Stebbins) was on the ballot and received 5281 votes. Shaheen's share was 85.5 percent.

Thus Shaheen did better with Democratic primary voters this year than in either 2002 or 2008, but that's to be expected since there were fewer of them this year.

The point of this exercise is to note simply that while some pundits make a great deal of how Scott Brown will lose some Republican votes, the truth is that Jeanne Shaheen will probably not do as well with Democratic voters as some polls would have us believe.

Monday
Sep152014

CNN Has Scott Brown Even With Shaheen

                Remember how Democrats and their fellow travelers in the main stream media, especially the Daily Kos, were quick to pooh pooh that UNH poll which had Scott Brown within two points of Jeanne Shaheen in mid-August.

                Well…you can just hold those poohs because in the latest CNN/Opinion Research poll just out, Scott Brown is not merely within two points; in fact, he’s dead even.

                Remember also that for months I’ve been suggesting that we could expect a primary bounce for Scott Brown because in state after state, Republican primary winners have immediately moved up four to six points in averaged  polling data.

                Sure enough, it’s happened for Scott Brown.  According to the Real Clear Politics average, he’s halved the gap with Shaheen, and it would be even closer but for a Rasmussen Poll which has Shaheen up by six points.  This is the same Rasmussen, king of automated (that is to say unreliable) polling, which has Obama at only minus three in popularity while he’s down 12.6 points in the RCP average.  Obama would be down 13.75 were RCP to remove Rasmussen from its data base, something it clearly should do.

                Meanwhile, Democrats are in free fall in the all-important generic ballot numbers.  Until just a few minutes ago, not even Rasmussen had Democrats ahead; it does now, but that's in the same batch of numbers in which Obama is only down three points.  Go figure!  Keep in mind that Larry Sabato, at the University of Virginia, has charts on his web site showing how Democrats need a five point lead in the generic ballot just to break even on election day.

              By the way, don't for a minute think that Fox News polling goes out of its way to favor Republicans.  In fact, in its poll prior to this one, it had Democrats up seven points in the generic ballot and Obama doing better than any pollster other than Rasmussen; I figured it had gotten a hold of some bad numbers; clearly, Fox News does not rig its polls.

                Here are the three charts from RCP—Shaheen vs. Brown; Obama popularity; and generic ballot numbers.

                No additional commentary is needed here.

Polling Data--Shaheen v. Brown

PollDateSampleMoEShaheen (D)Brown (R)Spread
RCP Average 8/7 - 9/11 -- -- 47.3 43.8 Shaheen +3.5
CNN/Opinion Research 9/8 - 9/11 735 LV 3.5 48 48 Tie
Rasmussen Reports 9/10 - 9/11 750 LV 4.0 48 42 Shaheen +6
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 8/18 - 9/2 1159 LV 4.0 47 41 Shaheen +6
WMUR/UNH 8/7 - 8/17 609 LV 4.0 46 44 Shaheen +2

All New Hampshire Senate - Brown vs. Shaheen Polling Data

Polling Data--Obama Approval

PollDateSampleApprove Disapprove Spread
RCP Average 9/2 - 9/14 -- 41.4 54.0 -12.6
Gallup 9/12 - 9/14 1500 A 41 54 -13
Rasmussen Reports 9/12 - 9/14 1500 LV 48 51 -3
FOX News 9/7 - 9/9 833 LV 38 57 -19
The Economist/YouGov 9/6 - 9/8 715 RV 40 58 -18
CNN/Opinion Research 9/5 - 9/7 1014 A 43 55 -12
Pew Research 9/2 - 9/9 2002 A 42 50 -8
ABC News/Wash Post 9/4 - 9/7 RV 42 54 -12
Reuters/Ipsos 9/3 - 9/7 1758 A 39 53 -14
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 9/3 - 9/7 1000 RV 40 54  

 

Polling Data--Generic Ballot

PollDateSampleRepublicans (R)Democrats (D)Spread
RCP Average 8/23 - 9/14 -- 45.7 42.7 Republicans +3.0
Rasmussen Reports 9/8 - 9/14 3500 LV 38 41 Democrats +3
Pew Research 9/2 - 9/9 1150 LV 47 44 Republicans +3
FOX News 9/7 - 9/9 833 LV 47 40 Republicans +7
CNN/Opinion Research 9/5 - 9/7 LV 49 45 Republicans +4
ABC News/Wash Post 9/4 - 9/7 LV 47 44 Republicans +3
GWU/Battleground 8/23 - 8/28 1000 LV 46 42 Republicans +4

All 2014 Generic Congressional Vote Polling Data

Monday
Sep152014

Memo To Walt--Keep Christie Out Of NH

Christie in New Hampshire 1.jpg

According to media reports, New Jersey's crooked Governor Chris Christie is about ready to visit New Hampshire for the third time to campaign for Republican gubernatorial candidate Walt Havenstein.

 Not that he will listen to me, a proud supporter of Andy Hemingway, but please, Walt, please, tell Christie thanks, but no thanks. Beg him to stay out of New Hampshire. 

It's bad enough that Havenstein has tax problems in Maryland hanging over his head like a sword of Damocles, but must he remind us of how ethically challenged some Republicans (my party) are by bringing the man whose administration closed off the George Washington Bridge to our fair state? 

Can't Republicans, including Scott Brown, find someone more ethnically pure to belly up to than Chris The Big Bully Christie? 

Personally I'm having enough problems stomaching Havenstein, Witless Walt according to some, without having to see him standing next to a man who has come to symbolize everything that's wrong with our political system.

Hassan released her first attack on Havenstein over the weekend, rather effective it seems to me. She went after his poor record as CEO. With ethical problems of her own (the $25,000 illegal campaign contribution), apparently Maggie has taken the "people who live in glass houses" approach and is afraid to lay into Havenstein for his attempt to cheat the state of Maryland. 

Hassan doesn't need to do it herself apparently because every time New Hampshire voters see Christie on the stump with Havenstein they--at least a good share of the--must join me in the thought that birds of a crooked feather flock together. 

Hey, Walt, do yourself and my party a favor, tell Christie to send a check--or a lot of checks--but stay the hell out of our state for the next seven weeks.

 

No good can come of this.

 

  1. The Star-Ledger ‎- 1 day ago
    Christie, chairman of the Republican Governors Association and a ... Christie campaigned for Havenstein in June and again the following ...
Thursday
Sep112014

Did Scott Brown Reach 50% Tuesday? Yes, Yes, And No

                If the question is, “Did Scott Brown make it to 50 percent in Tuesday’s Republican primary?”, the answer is yes and no, depending on exactly how you phrase the question.

                Let’s look at three scenarios.

                If you consider all tem candidates listed on the Republican ballot, Brown in fact made it by the narrowest of margins, 50.017 percent.  Brown’s total of 58,774 votes is 40 votes more than the 58,734 for  the other nine candidates combined.

                However, if you include candidates not on the ballot, then Brown’s total would be 49.84 percent.  That’s because there were 183 scatter votes (from real people to the Mickey Mouses you’ll see in any election), and Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen received 220 write-in votes on the Republican ballot, not many but enough to move the number from over 50 percent to just under 50 percent for Brown.

                The third way of looking at it is that Brown received 52.25 percent of the vote if you compare just the three top candidates.  In other words, he “easily” received more votes than second place finisher Jim Rubens (27,109 votes) and Bob Smith (26,593 votes) combined.

                How many angels are dancing on the head of this pin?

                It all depends what the definition of “is” is.

                Not because I’m a Scott Brown fan (I voted for Rubens but will happily vote for Brown come November), I prefer to look at the three way numbers, the scenario which yields 52.25 percent for Brown.