Senate Redstricting Plan Protects Incumbents

Allow me some time to mull over the details before I offer an analysis of all 24 new Senate districts as proposed by the 19 member Republican majority.  It meets the ten percent deviation range (refer to numbers below).

At first glance, this appears to be little more than an incumbent protection plan, not that there's anything wrong with that.

However, one of the incumbents being protected by the 19 Republicans is Manchester Democrat Lou D'Allesandro.  Talk of including Bedford or even more Republican leaning Manchester wards in District 20 was apparently just talk.

There's no change to District 20.  Republican Goffstown remains outnumbered two to one by four highly Democratic Manchester Wards (3, 4, 10, and 11).   It's almost as if Democrats had somehow invaded the mind of Senate President Peter Bragdon and his chief of staff Jay Flanders as they put this plan together.  Just a simple change like transferring ward 12 for ward 4 would have posed problem for D'Allesandro in this district, but he's been given a free pass.

Republicans also did no favor for one of their own, Manchester Senator Tom DeBlois.  No changes were made to District 18 which includes Democratic wards 5, 7, and 9 along with neutral ward 8 and Republican Litchfield.  During a "normal" year, this district would have to be termed "leans Democratic".

Inexplicably, Republican redistricting also created a highly Democratic district of six Nashua wards (welcome back Betty Lasky).

While Democrats would be considered favorites in eight of the 24 districts proposed here, the plan (ingenious many Republicans told me, even if I do say so myself) I presented last spring would have had Democrats favored in only five districts.

Clearly the path Bragdon and Flanders chose was to strengthen seats of incumbent Republicans rather than to capture more seats.

For example, Nancy Stiles benefits by having Portsmouth removed from her district (24), and Warren Groen benefits by getting Alton and other Republican towns in place of Somersworth in District 6, but in the process two extremely Democratic districts have been created in the Seacoast (Dover, Somersworth, Rollinsford in District 4; Portsmouth, Newington, Durham, Madbury, Lee and Newington in District 21--welcome back Martha Fuller Clark).  No Democrat worth his or her salt could ever lose in either of those districts.

Henniker Republican Andy Sanborn's district has been virtually eliminated to strengthen other Republican seats (O'Dell in District 8 gets Weare for example), but I'm told this is because Sanborn is moving to Loudon, and a new district District 7 has been created there including most of the old Lakes Region district of Senator Forsythe who has announced he's not running again.

The plan creates two totally Democratic districts along the Connecticut River (5 with Lebanon, Hanover, and Claremont and 10 with Keene and surrounding towns), but then my plan did that as well--all those Democrats over there have to go somewhere.  And no Democrat could ever lose District 15 (Larsen) as Henniker has been added in with Concord, Hopkinton, and Warner.

Districts 1 and 2 in the North Country and Grafton County seem to be slightly better for Republican incumbents.  Senators Barnes (17) and Prescott (23) also get stronger districts, and when it comes to southern districts for Sharon Carson (Londonderry), David Boutin (Manchester/Hooksett), Chuck Morse (Salem), and Rausch (Derry)...well, let's put it this way, no Democrat need apply!  In Carroll County, Jeb Bradley's District 3 remains highly Republican

Among the more interesting configurations is District 9 which runs all the way from Bedford to Richmond in Cheshire County.  It's certainly Republican terrain, but with Senator White retiring, the question is--who's it built for?  A conservative Republican from Bedford like Rep Cebrowski or a RINO like former Senator Andy Peterson from Peterborough.  Hey, it also includes Speaker O’Brien’s town of Mt. Vernon--this one could be fun!

While this plan helps Republican incumbents, Democrats--especially Lou D'Allesandro--should be pleased.  They could have done much worse, especially had Republican Senators adopted the type of plan I had created for them!

You just can't make this stuff up!

Existing NH Senate District Map <-- Click to view Color Coded map

Republican Senate Proposal 1/5/12

population prior to redistricting--after redistricting

1 51,713 -3,140 -5.72%          53,356 -1,497 -2.73%

2 57,095 2,242 4.09%            53,513 -1,340 -2.44%

3 56,485 1,632 2.98%            52,328 -2,525 -4.60%

4 54,249 -604 -1.10%            52,856 -1,997 -3.64%

5 53,856 -997 -1.82%            57,091 2,238 4.08%

6 56,650 1,797 3.28%           52,801 -2,052 -3.74%

7 54,987 134 0.24%              57,245 2,392 4.36%

8 54,222 -631 -1.15%           57,164 2,311 4.21%

9 57,859 3,006 5.48%           54,771 -82 -0.15%

10 52,718 -2,135 -3.89%      56,379 1,526 2.78%

11 56,670 1,817 3.31%         55,487 634 1.16%

12 52,473 -2,380 -4.34%       56,130 1,277 2.33%

13 48,078 -6,775 -12.35%      57,639 2,786 5.08%

14 53,549 -1,304 -2.38%        53,549 -1,304 -2.38%

15 55,399 546 1.00%            55,953 1,100 2.01%

16 54,979 126 0.23%            54,979 126 0.23%

17 58,086 3,233 5.89%         54,660 -193 -0.35%

18 54,263 -590 -1.08%         54,263 -590 -1.08%

19 55,224 371 0.68%           55,224 371 0.68%

20 53,882 -971 -1.77%         53,882 -971 -1.77%

21 57,893 3,040 5.54%        53,341 -1,512 -2.76%

22 56,033 1,180 2.15%        56,033 1,180 2.15%

23 56,793 1,940 3.54%        53,009 -1,844 -3.36%

24 53,314 -1,539 -2.81%      54,817 -36 -0.07%

Range 10,008 18.25%          5,311 9.68%

Average 54,853 

Total 1,316,470