Monday, October 1, 2012 at 03:47PM
Pollsters, take note.
Democrats do not enjoy an edge in voter registration in New Hampshire, so any poll which samples more Democrats than Republicans (such as was the case in a Democrat poll showing Ovide and Maggie virtually tied last week) is simply wrong.
Why would any legitimate pollster continue to oversample Democrats when it's really not even close in voter registration?
I saw a map on TV last week. It showed five battleground states in which Republican registration has significantly outpaced Democrats. Hmm, I thought, I'm not sure this is true in New Hampshire, so I contacted the Secretary of State's office, and sure enough, it is true.
While Undeclared (or Independent) voters continue to lead both parties in terms of registration, Republicans have indeed moved to a 4.5 percent lead over Democrats. There are more than 35,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats in the state. Some of that is because more people took Republican ballots to vote in both the Presidential primary back in January and the state primary in September, but since about 90 percent of undeclared voters switch back to their undeclared status prior to leaving the polling locations, that's only part of the story.
Before, I back up these contentions with actual real numbers...let's digress a moment. Remember when Republican House leaders tried to hold undeclared voters hostage for three months and prevent them from reverting to undeclared status at the polls. Which Republican Rep fought against that bit of silliness?
You know the answer, and you don't have to thank me, Independents. A vote for me November 6 will be enough. We killed that bit of O'Brien/Bates insanity!
Here are the numbers after the September primary voting. These are directly from Secretary of State Gardner's office 9they should be available on line). I've created the percentages, but it's really simply math.
Total Registered Voters in NH--793,403
NH Voters Registered Undeclared--308,451--38.9 percent
NH Voters Registered Republican--260,138--32.8 percent
NH Voters Registered Democrat--224,814--28.3 percent
Either check the math...or trust me...I've double checked.
That's a Republican advantage of 35,324 voters and 4.5 percent (32.8 minus 28.3 is 4.5)
Don't trust any pollsters who are sampling more Democrats than Republicans in New Hampshire.