Updated NH House Projection--Democrats Gain One More, Now Trail 201-198-1

Since the September primary, I have made 11 changes in my prediction of NH House seats.  However, since five of the changes benefit Republicans and six benefit Democrats, the net change is only a plus one for Democrats, bringing the total to 201 Republicans, 198 Democrats, and 1 Independent.

These changes are based on numbers posted in the primary.  For example, Republicans found two write-in candidates in the town of Belmont (Belknap County), and it now appears they will capture both those seats in a highly Republican town in November.

I’m moving a Coos County seat to the Democratic column due to the loss of Republican incumbent William Remick in the primary (I’m calling this “The I am not a witch” syndrome, in honor of the Republican Senate primary candidate in Delaware being unable to hold a seat which would otherwise have gone Republican two years ago!  We could also call it the "Republicans eat their own" syndrome.) 

Based on projections that Obama will do well in the Grafton County area, I’ve moved two of the floterial seats there into the Democratic column.

In Hillsborough County, I’m moving three seats in Manchester to the Republican column (Win Hutchinson in Ward 2; Emily Sandblade in Ward 11; and Kathy Souza in the floterial involving wards 4, 5, 6, and 7).  It is, after all, Ovide's home turf.  However, I’m moving one of the three Weare/Deering seats to Democrats (Evelyn Connor) ; one of the five seats in Goffstown to Democrats (Ruth Gage); and one of the eight seats in the town of Merrimack (no one specifically) to Democrats….thus it’s a wash in Hillsborough County.  These changes are based on one of the candidates making such a strong primary showing (or one of the other party’s candidates making such a weak showing) that changes are likely although by no means certain.

I have real doubts about keeping an Amherst seat in the Independent column.  The greater the turnout, the more difficult it is for an Independent to win, and turnout should be very heavy this year.  However, the last time Cynthia Dokmo was on the general election ballot with both Robert Rowe and Steve Stepanek (2006), she finished 600 votes or so ahead of both of them, so at least for now, I’m staying with her as a winner.  Consider this an extremely low level of confidence pick.  Were it not to happen, Republicans would have a 202-198 edge in my calculations.

For the sake of clarity, I’m reproducing all forecasts here with the changes in bold (and notations at the side).  I have considered another dozen changes (including my own ward; some say I will lose), but decline to make any further changes at this time.  Note that were I to offer these changes, they would pretty much cancel each other out, so I am confident with the overall margin as expressed here.  Also note that these numbers are pretty much in line with those from Democrat numbers cruncher William Tucker who today projected a 200-200 split.  His work is based on sheer numbers (using a computer model with Obama carrying the state by 3.8 points); my projections take individuals into account a bit more, but our end result is nearly identical.

Bye, bye, BillyO.

For the sake of consistency, Republicans are always listed first.2012 New Hampshire State Represenative Projections By County

                                  2012 Projection

County                        R        D     I               2010 R/D

Belknap                        13        5                      18        0         +2R

Carroll                          12        3                      14        0

Cheshire                       5          18                    10        14

Coos                              4          6                     6          5           +1D

Grafton                        9           18                   13        13           +2D

Hillsborough                 62        59     1             102      21          +3R/+3D

Merrimack                    16        29                    27        17

Rockingham                 69        21                    80        10

Strafford                       7          30                    19        18

Sullivan                         4          9                      9          4

TOTAL                       201      198   1             298      102

Belknap          Area                            #Reps R        D

Be1      New Hampton, Ctr. Harbor      1          1          0

Be2      Meredith, Gilford                      4          3          1

Be3      Laconia                                    4          2          2

Be4      Sanbornton, Tilton                    2          1          1

Be5      Gilmanton, Alton                       2          2          0

Be6      Belmont                                    2          2           0     +2R

Be7      Barnstead                                 1          1          0

Be8      Float Districts 5 and 7               1          1          0

Be9      Float Districts 3 and 6               1          0          1

BE       2012 COUNTY TOTAL                18        13        5  

BE       2010 COUNTY TOTAL                18        18        0

Carroll            Area                            #Reps R        D

Ca1      Bartlett, Jackson                       1          1          0

Ca2      Conway, Eaton, Chatham         3          1          2

Ca3      Albany, Freedom, Tamworth    2          2          0

Ca4      Moulton, Sandwich, Tufton       2          2          0

Ca5      Brookfield, Ossipee, Wkfld      3          3          0

Ca6      Wolfeboro                                2          2          0

Ca7      Float Districts 1 and 2               1          0          1

Ca8      Float Districts 4 and 5               1          1          0

CA       2012 COUNTY TOTAL                15        12        3

CA       2010 COUNTY TOTAL                14        14        0

Cheshire         Area                            #Reps R         D

Ch1      Chest, Hinsdale, Walpole          4          0          4

Ch2      Alstead, Marlow, Surry            1          0          1

Ch3      Gilsum, Stoddard, Nelson         1          1          0

Ch4      Keene 1                                   1          0          1

Ch5      Keene 2                                   1          0          1

Ch6      Keene 3                                   1          0          1

Ch7      Keene 4                                   1          0          1

Ch8      Keene 5                                   1          0          1

Ch9      Dublin, Jaffrey, Harris   2          0          2

Ch10    Marlborough, Troy                   1          0          1

Ch11    Fitzwilliam, Rindge                    2          2          0

Ch12    Richmond, Swanzey                 2          1          1

Ch13    Winchester                               1          0          1

Ch14    Float Districts 9 and 11 1          1          0

Ch15    Float Dists 10, 12, and 13        1          0          1

Ch16    Float All of Keene                    2          0          2

CH       2012 COUNTY TOTAL               23        5          18

CH       2010 COUNTY TOTAL               24        10        14

Coos                Area                            #Reps R         D

Co1     Colebrook, Pittsburg, Etc         2          2          0

Co2     Northum, Dummer, Milan         1          0          1

Co3     Berlin                                       3          0          3

Co4     Lancaster, Dalton, Kilkenny      1        0          1        +1D

Co5     Carroll, Jeff, Whitefld, Rand      1          1          0

Co6     Gorham, Shelburne, Etc            1          0          1

Co7     Float Districts 2, 4, and 5          1          1          0

COOS 2012 COUNTY TOTAL               10        4          6

COOS 2010 COUNTY TOTAL               11        6         5

Grafton           Area                            #Reps R         D

Gr1      Littleton, Bethlehem                 2          2          0

Gr2      Franc, Lisbon, Lyman, Etc        1          0          1

Gr3      Bath, Orf, Warren, Pier Etc      1          0          1

Gr4      Haverhill                                  1          1          0

Gr5      Lincoln, Woodstock. WV          1          1          0

Gr6      Rumney, Thornton, Groton       1          1          0

Gr7      Campton                                  1          0          1

Gr8      Plymouth, Holderness               3          0          3

Gr9      Ashland, Bristol, Bridge            2          2          0

Gr10    Enfield                                      1          0          1

Gr11    Canaan, Dorchester                  1          0          1

Gr12    Hanover, Lyme                          4          0          4

Gr13    Lebanon                                   4          0          4

Gr14    Float Districts 1 and 2               1          1          0

Gr15    Float Districts 3 and 4               1          1          0

Gr16    Float Districts 6 and 11 1          1          0           1         +1D

Gr17    Float Districts 9 and 10 1          1           0          1          +1D

GR       2012 COUNTY TOTAL              27        9          18

GR       2010 COUNTY TOTAL              26        13        13

Hillsborough        Area                       #Reps R         D

Hi1       Antrim, Hillsborough                 2          0          2

Hi2       Weare, Deering                        3            2           1          +1D

Hi3       Bennington, Hancock                1          0          1

Hi4       Francestown, Wilton, Lynd       2          1          1

Hi5       New Boston, Mt Vernon          2          1          1

Hi6       Goffstown                                5          4           1         +1D

Hi7       Bedford                                    6          6          0

Hi8       Manchester 1                           2          0          2

Hi9       Manchester 2                           2          1          1         +1R

Hi10     Manchester 3                           2          0          2

Hi11     Manchester 4                           2          0          2

Hi12     Manchester 5                           2          0          2

Hi13     Manchester 6                           2          1          1

Hi14     Manchester 7                           2          0          2

Hi15     Manchester 8                           2          2          0

Hi16     Manchester 9                           2          0          2

Hi17     Manchester 10                         2          2          0

Hi18     Manchester 11                         2           1           1         +1R    

Hi19     Manchester 12                         2          1          1

Hi20     Litchfield                                  2          2          0

Hi21     Merrimack                               8           7           1          +1D

Hi22     Amherst                                   3          1          1          1

Hi23     Milford                                     4          4          0

Hi24     Peterborough                           2          0          2

Hi25     New Ipswich, Temple               2          2          0

Hi26     Brookline, Mason                     2          1          1

Hi27     Hollis                                        2          2          0

Hi28     Nashua 1                                  3          2          1

Hi29     Nashua 2                                  3          1          2

Hi30     Nashua 3                                  3          0          3

Hi31     Nashua 4                                  3          0          3

Hi32     Nashua 5                                  3          1          2

Hi33     Nashua 6                                  3          0          3

Hi34     Nashua 7                                  3          1          2

Hi35     Nashua 8                                  3          1          2

Hi36     Nashua 9                                  3          1          2

Hi37     Hudson, Pelham                       11        8          3

Hi38     Float Districts 1, 3, and 4          2          1          1

Hi39     Float Districts 2 and 6               1          1          0

Hi40     Float Dists 5, 23, and 27          1          1          0

Hi41     Float Districts 7 and 22             1          1          0

Hi42     Float Manch 1, 2, 3                  2          0          2

Hi43     Float Manch 4, 5, 6, 7              3           1           2         +1R

Hi44     Float Manch 8, 9, Litch            2          1          1

Hi45     Float Manch 10, 11, 12            2          0          2

HI        2012 COUNTY TOTAL             122      62        59        1

HI        2010 COUNTY TOTAL             123      102      21

Merrimack                 Area                #Reps R         D

Me1     Andover, Danbury, Salisbury    1          1          0

Me2     Franklin 1 Wds 1, 2, Hill           2          1          1

Me3     Franklin Wd 3, Northfield         2          1          1

Me4     Sutton, Wilmot             1          0          1

Me5     New London, Newbury            2          2          0

Me6     Bradford, Henniker                   2          0          2

Me7     Warner, Webster                      1          0          1

Me8     Boscawen                                1          0          1

Me9     Canterbury, Loudon                 2          1          1

Me10   Concord Wd 5, Hopkinton       3          0          3

Me11   Concord Ward 1                      1          0          1

Me12   Concord Ward 2                      1          0          1

Me13   Concord Ward 3                      1          0          1

Me14   Concord Ward 4                      1          0          1

Me15   Concord Ward 6                      1          0          1

Me16   Concord Ward 7                      1          0          1

Me17   Concord Ward 8                      1          0          1

Me18   Concord Ward 9                      1          0          1

Me19   Concord Ward 10                    1          0          1

Me20   Chichester, Pembroke              3          1          2

Me21   Epsom, Pittsfield                       2          2          0

Me22   Allenstown                               1          1          0

Me23   Bow, Dunbarton                       3          1          2

Me24   Hooksett                                  4          4          0

Me25   Float Districts 1 and 7               1          0          1

Me26   Float Districts 3, 8, 9                1          0          1

Me27   Float Concord 1,2,3,4,6,7        2          0          2

Me28   Float Concord 8,9,10               1          0          1

Me29   Float Districts 21 and 22           1          1          0

ME      2012 COUNTY TOTAL              45        16        29

ME      2010 COUNTY TOTAL              44        27        17

Rockingham               Area                #Reps R         D

Ro1      Northwood                              1          0          1

Ro2      Candia, Deeefld, Nottingham    3          3          0

Ro3      Raymond                                  2          3          0

Ro4      Auburn, Sandown                     5          5          0

Ro5      Londonderry                            7          7          0

Ro6      Derry                                       10        8          2

Ro7      Windham                                  4          4          0

Ro8      Salem                                       9          8          1

Ro9      Epping                                      2          2          0

Ro10    Fremont                                   1          1          0

Ro11    Brentwood                               1          1          0

Ro12    Danville                                    1          1          0

Ro13    Hampstead, Kingston               4          4          0

Ro14    Atkinson, Plaistow                    4          4          0

Ro15    Newton                                    1          1          0

Ro16    E Kings, Kens, S Hampton       1          1          0

Ro17    Newfields, Newmarket 3          0          3

Ro18    Exeter                                      4          2          2

Ro19    Stratham                                   2          1          1

Ro20    Seabrook, Hampton Falls         3          3          0

Ro21    Hampton                                  4          2          2

Ro22    North Hampton                        1          1          0

Ro23    Greenland, Newington  1          1          0

Ro24    Rye, New Castle                      2          1          1

Ro25    Portsmouth Ward 1                  1          0          1         

Ro26    Portsmouth Ward 2                  1          0          1

Ro27    Portsmouth Ward 3                  1          0          1

Ro28    Portsmouth Ward 4                  1          0          1

Ro29    Portsmouth Ward 5                  1          0          1

Ro30    Float Ports 1, 2, 4, 5                1          0          1

Ro31    Float Dists 22, 23, and 27        1          0          1

Ro32    Float Districts 1 and 2               1          1          0

Ro33    Float Districts 10, 11, 12          1          1          0

Ro34    Float Districts 13 and 14           1          1          0

Ro35    Float Districts 15 and 16           1          1          0

Ro36    Float Districts 17 and 18           1          0          1

Ro37    Float Districts 20 and 21           1          1          0

RO       2012 COUNTY TOTAL               90        69        21

RO       2010 COUNTY TOTAL              90        80        10

Strafford                     Area                #Reps R         D

St1       Middleton, Milton                     2          1          1

St2       Farmington                               2          1          1

St3       New Durham, Strafford            2          1          1

St4       Barrington                                2          0          2

St5       Lee                                          1          0          1

St6       Durham, Madbury                    5          0          5

St7       Rochester Ward 1                    1          0          1

St8       Rochester Ward 6                    1          0          1

St9       Rochester Ward 2                    1          0          1

St10     Rochester Ward 3                    1          1          0

St11     Rochester Ward 4                    1          0          1

St12     Rochester Ward 5                    1          0          1

St13     Dover Ward 1                          1          0          1

St14     Dover Ward 2                          1          0          1

St15     Dover Ward 3                          1          0          1

St16      Dover Ward 4                         1          0          1

St17     Dover Wds 5,6 Somer Wd2     3          1          2

St18     Somer1,3,4,5, Rollinsford         3          0          3

St19     Float Dover Wards 1 and 2      1          0          1

St20     Float Dover Wards 3 and 4      1          0          1

St21     Float Dover Wards 5 and 6      1          0          1

St22     Float Roch Wards 1 and 6        1          0          1

St23     Float Roch Wards 2 and 3        1          1          0

St24     Float Roch Wards 4 and 5        1          1          0

St25     Float  Barrington, Lee               1          0          1

ST        2012 COUNTY TOTAL              37        7          30

ST        2010 COUNTY TOTAL              37        19        18

Sullivan                       Area                #Reps  R       D

Su1      Corn, Gran, Plainfld, Spring      2          0          2

Su2      Sunapee, Croydon                   1          0          1

Su3      Claremont Ward 1                    1          0          1

Su4      Claremont Ward 2                    1          0          1

Su5      Claremont Ward 3                    1          0          1

Su6      Newport, Unity                         2          2          0

Su7      Act, Gos, Lem, Lang, Wash      1          1          0

Su8      Charlestown                             1          0          1

Su9      Float Districts 1 and 2               1          0          1

Su10    Float Claremont Wards            1          0          1

Su11    Float Districts   7 and 8             1          1          0

SU       2012 COUNTY TOTAL               13        4          9

SU       2010 COUNTY TOTAL               13        9          4