Expect 750,000 Votes In NH On Nov. 6

If the past in any indication--and it most certainly is--expect upwards of three-quarters of a million votes to be cast in New Hampshire on November 6.  Turnout is always up substantially (nearly 75 percent) in a Presidential year over the previous year (2012 vs. 2010).

Here are the numbers for the past four election cycles.  Note that not only the numbers of absentee ballots cast is way up, but the percentage is also way up in Presidential years (5.8-6.5 percent vs. 9.1-10.0 percent).

2004--Presidential Year

683,672 votes cast

62,059 absentee, 9.1 percent

2006

417,436 votes cast

24,380 absentee, 5.8 percent

2008--Presidential Year

719,403 votes cast

72,264 absentee,  10.0 percent

2010

461,423 votes cast

30,032 absentee, 6.5 percent

That's a 72.3 percent increase from the 2006 total to the 2008 number adn then a 35.9 percent decrease for the 2010 off year election.

If we were to increase 72.3 percent from the 2010 number for the 2012 turnout, turnout would be 795,032.  However, that's not likely since population growth has basically stopped in the past four years.

I've also run the numbers for Manchester turnout.  Most likely, we'll see 50,000 votes cast in the city this year.  That's three and a half times the number cast in last year's city election (less than 15,000).  Amazing.  Note that Manchester's percent of the total votes cast in the state is slightly higher in Presidential years.

Manchester Votes Cast--2004--47,130 (6.9 percent of state)

Manchester Votes Cast--2006--27,260 (6.5 percent of state)

Manchester Votes Cast--2008--49,147 (6.8 percent of state)

Manchester Votes Cast--2010--30,309 (6.6 percent of state)

I've got a ward-by-ward chart which I'll show on next week's edition of The Liberty Express (Monday at 10 p.m. on Channel 23; also Thursday at 9 p.m., Sunday at 6 a.m. and noon; always available at vimeo.com/channels/libertyx).

Comments

[C. dog]

How many votes can we expect from MA-MA Land, given our highly coveted swinger status?
– C. dog

[enaile]

dog:

Probably about 3,000-3500 non-residents will vote here again this presidential election cycle.

I would bet Will i am Gardner has the best number because he tracks that stuff.

[Rep Steve Vaillancourt]

I find it of unending interest when Republicans charge voter fraud when in fact the latest example of fraudulent registration is out of Florida and Republicans are the guilty party...so guilty in fact that they've shut down the registration effort there.
Give me a break, conspiracy theorists. If you concentrated on getting Republicans elected rather than moaning about fraud, you and the party would be better off!

[C. dog]

With whom is Judge Judy Lewis conspiring? The disinfected 'utes applying science to pols, the aged professors tryin' to score on some lib coeds, or his weighty wife's contributions to the New Hamster Dummkopf Party? Conspiracy: it only takes two to tango. And three, well that's why we're a Swinger State.
– C. dog