The Week In Polls--Oct. 9--Oh, What A Bounce!

Maybe Obama would do better in the next debate if he just started quoting Pee Wee Herman, "I know you are Mitt, but what am I?"

The punditry world, including the highly respected Nate Silver who noted that the biggest bounce ever from a debate performance was three points, are left scratching their statistical-crammed heads this week.

The bounce was as much as a dozen points in at least one poll--Romney went from eight points down to four points up (49-45) in the latest Pew Poll.

It'll undoubtedly take Nate and Company a few more days to figure out the average bounce, but wanna bet it'll be more than three points.

Ah yes, that's because no other candidate was so totally dominated as was Obama last Wednesday night.

For the first time ever, Romney has pulled ahead in the Real Clear Politics average of polls.  It's 48.0-47.3 Tuesday.  The only question is whether or not there's more bounce still to come.

The pollster average still has Obama up but by only 0.4 points (47.0-46.6).

Ironically, it's Rasmussen, the last hope for Romney a week ago as sited by who populate Fox News shows, now has the race dead even at 48-48.  In other words, the Romney bounce, which peaked at  four over the weekend with Rasmussen over the weekend, is back down to two.  However, in the 11 Battleground states, Rasmussen now has Romney up two.

Go figure!

For the first day since the debate, Gallup now has Romney ahead.  It's 49-47 Tuesday, and two more nights of post-debate polling could drive that number up even higher (Gallup uses a seven day moving average).

IBD/Tipp has Romney up 47-45 Tuesday.  And while Politico still had Obama up a point (49-48) that was yesterday's news and probably obsolete in these fast moving conditions.

 The WMUR/Granite State Poll (Andy Smith from UNH) still has Romney ahead, but it's a six point swing from last week when the Demagogue In Chief was up none.  It's only six (47-41) today.

Other state polls are equally good news for Romney.  While CNN still has him down four (51-47) in Ohio, ARG has him up by one (48-47) in that swingiest of all states.

He's even cut a 30 point gap in Massachusetts down to 16 (52-36) in a WBUR poll, good news for Senator Scott Brown who has pulled ahead of Elizabeth Warren 48-45 in that same poll.  He'd been trailing in recent polls prior to the debate.

Other polls show Romney within two or three points in both Michigan and Pennsylvania.  Don't think he's going to win those states, but it's an indication that once you see movement in national numbers, it's sure to follow in all state polling. 

ARG has Romney up four points (50-46) in Colorado.

Rasmussen has him within six points (51-45) in Connecticut, but unlike other pollsters, Democrat Chris Murphy leads wrestling maven Linda McMahon by five points (51-46) for the Senate there.

Where it really counts, Romney has moved up nine (50-41) in a new North Carolina poll.  Expect pundits to start shading that state light red soon.

Nate Silver appears to be a big behind the curve at fivethirtyeight.com. He still gives Obama the electoral college 297-240 with a 71 percent chance of winning albeit by a narrower margin(50.5-48.5).

RCP no longer has the electoral college wrapped up.  It has Obama up only 251-181 with Nevada, Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa and Missouri too close to call.  That should change in a few days with Missouri tilting firmly to Romney and New Hampshire going back to toss-up.

Even Pollster (as in Huffington!) has Obama shy of the 270 electoral votes needed to win (it's 263-206 today).

Things are moving so fast there's no telling where they will stop.   While upwards of 70 million people watched the first debate, Obama was left with what Charles the Wise (Charles Krauthammer) calls the wit of the staircase in having to refute days later what he missed during the debate.  If only the Patriots could have mulligans like Obama seems to think he's entitled to, they'd be 2-0 against the Giants in the Super Bowls.  Or the Red Sox would win 1967, 1975, and 1986 World Series.

Sorry, Obie, do-overs aren't allowed in sports or debating.

The wit of the staircase remark, while cruel, does not go far enough.  I'd say that Team Obama/Biden are left like petulant little children who resort to the lame remark, "Your mother wears army boots!"

In fact, Team Obama very much resembles that precocious man/child from 30 years ago, the one with the nervous laugh we all remember so well.

Obama is turning into the Pee Wee Herman of 2012.

"I know you are but what am I?"

Don't get me wrong.  I was a big fan of PeeWee...We'll know Obama has taken total leave of his senses if he starts saying, "It's time for a Penny cartoon"!

Comments

[Rep Dan McGuire]

I've been betting on Romney on www.intrade.com. He's still a 62.5% to 37.5% underdog, which seems like excellent odds to me. The election must be 50-50 or something close to that.

[Rep Steve Vaillancourt]

In trade is a valid test for odds since you have to put your money where your mouth is there. Kind of like what I refer to as "gun to your head" prediction...you pick worng, you die.
Watch Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight.com daily odds for another fairly valid indication. Obama has come down from more than 80 to around 70 now. I would still rate Obama above 50...maybe 55 or so today. Watch Ohio! A Boston pollster (Tufts I think....Dave P...) now gives Romney Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina. So it could indeed come down to Ohio...if not NH. Of course, if we see PA and MI begin to turn to Romney, it'll be a runaway.