Monday, November 5, 2012 at 03:55PM
No guts, no glory.
That's my motto when it comes to predictions.
Thus, to go along with the usual predictions, I've come up with two what I call "out on a limb" predicitions, long shots which I expect to come through, one for the state, one for the country.
I have long thought that Ohio Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown is too liberal for that (or any) state and have been intrigued by the possibility of an upset win for 35 year old Josh Mandel who looks even younger. He's been elected statewide (state treasurer), spent eight years in the Marine Corps, and although polls have consistently shown him running behind Brown, I am now prepared to go out on a limb and pick him to spring an upset. Why? Because I believe Mitt Romney will carry the vital Buckeye state and it won't even be all that close as hundreds of thousands of evangelicals show up who sat out the election four years ago. Thus, Madel wins as well. (Rasmussen has it a dead heat today, and you know how I trust Rasmussen most among pollsters).
Here in New Hampshire, I am less confident to predict an upset in the highly Republican fourth Executive Council district, but hey, no guts, no glory. I'm going to predict Democrat Chris Pappas, former State Rep, former Hillsborough County Treasurer and co-owner of the popular Back Room Restaurant, defeats Republican Robert Burns, current county treasurer.
This is the third straight election these two have faced off.
Pappas beat Burns 52.6-47.6 percent (89,417-80,969) for tresurer in 2008; Burns beat Pappas 58.3-41.7 percent (68,438-48,808) in the Republican sweep of 2010.
The council district is arguably even more Republican than Hillsborough County, so this will indeed be an upset.
I'm not the first to predict the upset; Kevin Landrigan did in his Sunday Telegraph column.
Not only am I predicting the upset, I'm a Republican voting for Democrat Pappas. I've worked with both of them at the county level (in a position that should be non-partisan) and when it comes to competence, it's no contest. Pappas is by far the better choice.
You don't have to thank me, Chris (not even with an order of chicken tenders!).
Mmm, mmm, good.