UNH Pollster Suspects GOP Still Has An Edge

Rather than rely on my intution to make predictions for the upcoming New Hampshire elections, I thought I'd see if UNH pollster Andrew Smith has any hard and fast data, so I emailed him with word that I thought Democrats could actually pick up 100 seats in the House.  Remember that as of New Years, I had Democrats picking up about 60 seats to get to 160.  I upped that number to an 80 seat gain to get them to 180 a month ago, but now, I'm sensing even greater Democratic gains.  Andy Smith believes Republicans will maintain control, something in the range I was upping my numbers to a month ago.

I respect him greatly.  Here's his response.  He makes precisely the point I made in a blog here yesterday, that Democrats are using House GOP leadership to motivate their base.  We await his polling data; I still believe it'll show an edge to Democrats, but time will tell.  Keep in mind that even if Republicans hold 220-230 seats as he says, more moderate Republicans would be able to form a coaltition with Democrats on numerous issues, including the choice of Speaker.

To: Vaillancourt, Steve
Subject: Re:

I think you may be too deep inside the beltway! My sense is the public isn't paying much attention, but Dem activists are using the House leadership to motivate their base. We'll be putting questions on upcoming polls about generic house & senate races, no real data yet though. My sense is that it's 220-230 GOP.

Sent from my iPad

Andrew E. Smith, PhD

 <Steve.Vaillancourt@leg.state.nh.us> wrote:

I've been looking at upcoming NH elections and it looks more and more like a big comeback for Dems to me, maybe even a gain of 100 seats in the House which would make it approx 200-200 and nearly an even senate.  Wonder if you have any data which points in this direction.  I think the last time I saw your poll you had Obama up by eight in the state...I'm guessing it's going to be tight either way.  I sense anger over gop.

Comments

[Rick Barnes]

Steve, I think the election results will be based far more on the feeling toward National politics then anything on the state level.

[Brian Albertelli]

Steve,
I disagree. Most folks I talk to see right through the ginned up contraversies and are more and more not listening to media analysis. The rediculas attack by out of state unions and social issue crazies won't have the impact you may think. Most people I talk to think this current legislature is doing a good job and I think you are way over stating any gains by the other side.

[Rep Steve Vaillancourt]

I certainly agree that national issues matter most in a Presidential year. I've always said top of the ticket matters, but other forces do come into play. As I will explain in a later blog, in 1996, Bill Clinton won New Hampshire by ten points, but it was a very good year for almost all Republicans--except Ovide LaMontagne...so although national scene matters, local forces come into play. I try to divorce what I hope will happen from I think will happen. That's why I emailed Andy Smith for words of wisdom. In 2006, as the Democrats were about to gain 90 plus seats and take control of the House (and I was predicting it), almost all Republicans, including the late Mike Whalley, actually expected to gain seats, and they lost 90.
Time will tell.