Rather than rely on my intution to make predictions for the upcoming New Hampshire elections, I thought I'd see if UNH pollster Andrew Smith has any hard and fast data, so I emailed him with word that I thought Democrats could actually pick up 100 seats in the House. Remember that as of New Years, I had Democrats picking up about 60 seats to get to 160. I upped that number to an 80 seat gain to get them to 180 a month ago, but now, I'm sensing even greater Democratic gains. Andy Smith believes Republicans will maintain control, something in the range I was upping my numbers to a month ago.
I respect him greatly. Here's his response. He makes precisely the point I made in a blog here yesterday, that Democrats are using House GOP leadership to motivate their base. We await his polling data; I still believe it'll show an edge to Democrats, but time will tell. Keep in mind that even if Republicans hold 220-230 seats as he says, more moderate Republicans would be able to form a coaltition with Democrats on numerous issues, including the choice of Speaker.
To: Vaillancourt, Steve
Sent from my iPad
I've been looking at upcoming NH elections and it looks more and more like a big comeback for Dems to me, maybe even a gain of 100 seats in the House which would make it approx 200-200 and nearly an even senate. Wonder if you have any data which points in this direction. I think the last time I saw your poll you had Obama up by eight in the state...I'm guessing it's going to be tight either way. I sense anger over gop.