The Week In Polls--May 17--Guinta Trails CSP By Four; Ovide Up One

            As regular readers here know, due to the Democratic bias, I don’t really trust PPP polls.  However, even taking the numbers with a shaker of salt, Frank Guinta cannot be happy with results just released today.  Remember that last week Larry Sabato had moved the seat from leans Republican to toss-up.  Today’s PPP poll has Carol Shea Porter beating Guinta by four points, 47-43.  Even considering the source, the numbers tend to make sense.  Remember that the UNH poll from a few weeks ago showed people in the Manchester area favoring a Democrat for State Rep by a 20 point margin.  This is Guinta territory, and he probably should now be considered an underdog.  It’s most likely yet another indication of the rare phenomenon that I refereed to last week, reverse coattails.  House Speaker Bill O’Brien continues to so taint the Republican Party brand so severely that he could bring Guinta (and perhaps even Romney) down with him.

            Remember, you heard it here first and second.

            In the second congressional district, it’s close as expected.  PPP has it dead even at 42-42.  This should actually be considered good news for Bass although cannons will be fired more, rather than less, here in coming months.

            PPP also has Ovide Lamontagne up one point (40-39) over Hassan, but they apparently failed to do a Lamontagne-Cilley match-up or anything with Kevin Smith.  Please correct me if I’m wrong; I’m getting this from Real Clear Politics.

            Polls at the national level are truly confusing and seem to change on a daily basis.  Rasmussen had Romney up over Obama by as much as seven points one time last week.  It’s down to one point (46-45).  Gallup has a tie (45-45); CBS News/New York Times had Romney up three points (46-43) Monday, but Fox News, which most would consider the most conservative outfit, actually has Obama up seven points (46-39).

            Go figure.  It’s the polling world turned upside down.

            Odds are Fox has gotten hold of some bad data; at least that’s what Sean Hannity, who only reports news he agrees with honestly, is sure to tell us.

            IBD/CSM/TIPP (whatever that is) has Obama up three (43-40), but note that Obama is only at 43 percent.  More undecided voters than we usually see cannot be considered a good sign for an incumbent.

            Similarly, Fox has Obama’s approval rating back into positive territory (49-47) while it’s even (47-47) with Gallup and on the negative side with Rasmussen (47-52).

            Republicans are doing much better in a wider range of generic congressional match-ups this week.  Rasmussen, which has the margin varying from two to nine points in recent weeks, has it back up to seven points (45-38) this week, and there’s some verification of that trend from USA Today/Gallup which has the generic GOP candidate up six points (50-44).  Pundits more aged than I will likely say that’s a result of Barack Obama’s “evolution” on gay marriage.  I continue to insist it’s more the result of a new slew of poor economic news.

            Numbers out of North Carolina would tend to go against what I say.  Rasmussen has Obama trailing by eight (51-43) there now, in wake of that state’s 22 point approval of an anti-gay marriage lawn.

            Hey, I’m here to report the facts; not to spin the data.  I’m no Sean Hannity!

            Nate Silver at 538, whom I greatly respect, has some data with which I disagree with this week.  He’s moved the U.S. Senate from a Republican takeover to a 50-49 GOP edge with a likely independent from Maine (King) holding the swing vote (depending on who sits in the Vice Presidential chair).

            I might lower my prediction of Republican gains from seven to six seats (Maine will most likely be lost), but I still see five seats easily falling to Republicans—North Dakota, Nebraska, Montana, Missouri, and Wisconsin with Virginia a real possibility (and Ohio and Florida as outside shots), and with Elizabeth Warren’s Indian heritage story not about to go away, Scott Brown will most likely hold on to the most vulnerable Republican-held seat (although polls actually show it fairly dead even).

            We actually have new numbers out of Nebraska.  Former Democratic senator Bob Kerrey trails Fischer and not just by a few points; it’s 18 (56-38) according to Rasmussen.

            All the news out of Wisconsin is bad for Democrats.  Just about every poll has incumbent governor Scott Walker up by more than just a smidgeon in the recall race against Barrett (even PPP has the Democrat losing 49-45 while We Ask America has Walker up nine points, 52-43).

            There seems to be a spillover effect in the Presidential race.  I’ve always had Obama likely to win Wisconsin, but Marquette University has it tied at 46-46, and PPP has Obama up only one point (47-46), and Republican Tommy Thompson is up five points (47-42) in the U.S. Senate race.

            Game, set, and match when PPP has a Republican winning outside the margin of error.