How NH House Gets To 200R-200D

Back at the first of the year, I was predicting Democratic gains in the 50-60 seat range for the New Hampshire House.  Since they trailed 298-102 after the 2010 election, my numbers would have meant firm control for Republicans again next year (in the 240-160 range).

How things have changed since then.  Every time I've spent some time trying to refine my numbers, I've had to add more seats for Democrats.  On Memorial Day (in between rounds of mowing!), I sat down to actually map out a district by district approach, and I am now prepared to say that chances of Democrats taking control of the House--in other words of capturing at least 98 seats--must be rated 50/50.

In fact, I came out with a 200-200 split, and you'll just have to trust me that I never planned to get that result.  I simply looked at 400 seats--most them in blocks--and gave my best guess to each one.  In point of fact, I came out with Democrats at 201, but I also had Republicans at 200, so I had to go back and found out where the extra seat was.  It was in western Hillsborough County; I had given it to Democrats, so I backed the numbers off to 200-200.

I am not going to present district by district analysis until we learn once and for all what the districts are and until the filing period is over (in mid-June), but for now, I've done a county by county analysis, and my level of confidence is very high that I'll be within five percent--in other words, that neither party will get beyond 220 of 400 seats.

I see major changes in the cities, Manchester and Nashua in particular and in Hillsborough and Strafford Counties.

This makes perfect sense because you can only have gains in the places where you're weak now.

For the first time in memory, Democrats lost control of all cities combined in 2010.  Republicans went from a 20-114 deficit in 2008 to even Steven at 67-67 in 2010--a dramatic pick-up of 47 seats in cities alone!  17 seats were in Nashua alone and 14 in Manchester alone.  I expect most of the 2010 gains for Republicans in cities will be lost this November.  As for Strafford County, keep in mind that in 2006, only one Republican survived (yes, that would be Julie Brown) but in 2010, Republicans had a 19-18 edge in the county delegation.  I expect most of those gains will be lost this fall.

It's also interesting to note that I'm rather conservative in this approach.  I give Democrats ZERO seats in Hooksett, Bedford, Goffstown, Londonderry and huge swaths of Republican territory in Rockingham County from Raymond on through Chester, Epping, Danville, Kingston, etc.  If Democrats see even a modicum of success in these areas, all bets are off, and it will mark the dawn of a permanent Democratic majority in the state.  I'm not predicting that, but pundits should be on the lookout.

I am giving Democrats slight gains in Derry, Salem, Laconia, western Hillsborough County, Milford, and Amherst, but primarily the gains are limited to Manchester, Nashua, Strafford County as well as huge gains in Merrimack County.

I am not using any names here; first because we don't even know who is running; and secondly, note that most districts are multi-member voting blocs, so predicting a gain or loss by one party would not indicate which incumbent individual would lose (I most assuredly have definite ideas on this which I will share later, should those people choose to run).  It's mostly based on past results, but I am also using the recent UNH poll which goes way beyond showing a generic Democrat winning by three points in the race for State Rep; it breaks the state up into six regions, and Republicans lead only in the area which borders Massachusetts.  I posted the numbers earlier, but they bear repeating now:

North Country--31-39 Democratic edge;

Central/Lakes--32-32 tie;

Connecticut Valley--34-41 Democratic edge;

Mass border--44-30 Republican edge;

Seacoast--30-36 Democratic edge; and most significantly (at least to me)--

Manchester Area--27-48 Democratic edge.  That's 21 points, and since this also includes Bedford and some extremely Republican towns, one can only conclude that Democrats lead by 30 or more points in the city itself.  Irene Messier could be the only Manchester Republican left standing come Nov. 6.

Here's the county by county breakdown alphabetically.  Note also that some counties lose or gain in redistricting.  Since cities have lost six seats overall in redistricting, on would expect Republicans to benefit, but that won't happen this year precisely because Republicans did so well in those cities two years ago.  In other words, Democrats already lost seats in areas which are losing with population changes, so Republicans stand to lose in 2012!!  Strange but true.

Check my math to see if it adds up to 200-200.

Belknap from 18-0 Republican to 13-5 Republican.

Carroll from 14-0 Republican to 10-5 Republican (expect changes in the Conway area).

Cheshire from 10-14 Democrat to 5-18 Democrats.

Coos from 6-5 Republican to 5-5.

Grafton from 13-13 to 10-17 Democrats.

Hillsborough--the biggest change of all--from 101-21 Republicans to 62-60 Republicans.

             Manchester from 21-14 Republicans to 6-25 Democrats (I’ll count that floterial with Litchfield in town totals).  In 2008, Democrats led 7-28 and in 2006 6-29, so this is basically a reversion to norm.  I repeat--it's entirely possible that Irene Messier may be the only Republican left standing in Manchester, thanks in no small part to the redistricting treachery of the Seven Republican Serpents and to Republicans in the House taking $15 million from Manchester schools (not Irene; not me, but we all could be swept away with the right propaganda campaign).  Also, the Republican voucher bill will destroy the GOP in the city, especially if Republicans vote for this disaster (in the veto override) which will take another million from Manchester schools and lead to even more teacher layoffs.  How suicidal can Manchester Republicans be?  VERY!

              Nashua--the biggest shift of all--from 22-6 Republicans (thanks to Kelly Ayotte's coattails) to 7-20 Democrats.  In 2008, Democrats led 5-23, so this is basically a reversion to norm.

               Other Hillsborough Towns--From an amazing 58-1 Republicans to a more normal 47-16 Republicans.

Merrimack from 27-17 Republicans to 16-28 Democrats (and it could be much worse  according to a fellow astute Republican numbers cruncher; this could turn out to be a very conservative estimate).

Rockingham from 80-10 Republican to 68-22 Republican

Strafford from 19-18 Republican to 6-31 Democrats, another reversion to norm.

Sullivan from 9-4 Republican to 4-9 Democrats.

In brief, here are the gains I now see (the half Rep would be due to a change in number of Reps for that county due to redistricting):

Belknap—18 Reps--+5D

Carroll—15 Reps--+4.5D

Cheshire—24 Reps--+4.5D

Coos—10 Reps—+0.5D

Grafton—26 Reps--+3.5D

Hillsborough—122 Reps--+39D

Merrimack—44 Reps--+11D

Rockingham—90 Reps--+12D

Strafford—37 Reps--+13D

Sullivan—13 Reps--+5D

Total--+98D  200-200

Comments

[Joshua]

One comment/2 questions:

- If it is true that the NH GOP is fated to lose 12 seats in Rockingham, I truly hope that Reps. Bates and Baldasaro are 2 of the 12. No tears would be shed.

- Last year, you thought that the final outcome in the House would depend in part on the results in the Presidential and gubernatorial races, but now are you predicting these severe losses regardless of what happens up ticket?

- Did you make a prediction in 2010 and if so how accurate were you?

[Rep Steve Vaillancourt]

Sorry Joshua,old buddy old pal, but Baldasaro is pretty much guaranteed to win. I have Republicans holding all Londonderry seats, but even if Dems were to pick up one or two, Al would be safe. In fact, he could probably beat Sharon Carson for Senate if he chose to run (he's not going to, he said earlier). I'm not saying this is what I want--far from it--but it's what I suspect.
Thanks for the chance to go into more details. I should have originally but I was having trouble with the West Side library computer.
As for Bates, it's more complicated, and redistricting comes into play. In the new system, Windham will only get four seats. In the past, it's been combined with Salem and has "stolen" some of the Salem seats; in other words, taken more than four it "deserves" by population.. Bates will have to run for one of the four Windham seats. Last time, he finished FIFTH among the Windham candidates, fourth in the GOP primary so I'd say he's on the bubble... if he decides to run; there are rumors that he won't (I'll believe it when I see it).
My Dem gains in Rockingham are mostly in the Exeter, Stratham, Hampton, Newmarket area, places where Dems were making solid gains until the 2010 GOP sweep...in other words, reversion to norm.
I've been fairly accurate with my predictions as far as direction is concerned. For example, I had Dems taking control (only Jim Splaine and I did in fact) in 2006, but I didn't give them enough. Similarly, I had Republicans regaining control in 2010, but I didn't give them enough. In other words, in attempting to keep my predictions conservative, I tend to miss the overall number (the snowball effect), but that's ok. I get the trend right, and I see a trend toward parity this year. Don't trust hack party predicters; Jim Splaine, however, is very accurate. You have to divorce what you want to happen from what you think will happen.
Al B wins; Bates is on the bubble, but they lose many many allies, and I suspect there will be no serious movement to repeal gay marriage next year.
My changes are not regardless of what happens at the top of the ticket. I see changes in the top of the ticket outlook, changes better (if not exactly good) for Demcocrats.
I suspect top of the ticket will be fairly neutral and this is always the most important factor. I still think Romney can win NH but not by much. I had seen Ted Gatsas as Governor, but now that he's not running, I suspect that will be close one way or the other...no Lynch coattails for Dems, but no coattails for Republicans either (and I am convinced Kelly Ayotte had coattails in 2010). Closeness at the top, however, will tranaslate to big Democratic gains since they start from such a low level. My original thoughts were that a Dem was sure to lose for Governor; that's no longer true, so that's a big factor in the decision to up my numbers overall. Were I a Democrat, I would support Jackie Cilley, and I think she would be less easy for Republicans to "demonize" than Maggie, so Cilley could be a big and pleasant surprise were she to score an "upset" primary win.
I also think we must factor in the damage Bill O'Brien has done to the Republican brand name...plus the Mead Milage scandal...plus the Bettencourt scandal. Each cut in itself is not that deadly, but as the wounds continue to bleed closer to November, it could be toxic...espcially if two or three more shoes drop (hey, that would make a great cartoon...O'Brien standing near a closet with shoes falling from a ledge onto his head! Take it, Mike M, I give it to you).
I am truly undecided about running personllay and will not decide until the final hour (that's fodder for a separate blog), but if I run, I would rate my chances as good but not certain...as I say, it'll be a bad year for Manchester Republicans, but my ward is the most Republican in the city, especially in a Presidential year. And the forces of OB could always try to challenge me in a GOP primary...although my HRA ranking is higher than most GOP leaders and in the past GOP hasn't even been able to fill the slate in Ward 8.