Et Tu, Fenton?

"Et tu, Brute," Shakespeare had Julius Caesar proclaim prior to receiving the unkindest cut of all, the one which did him in.

The line seems especially appropriate today with Rochester Republican District 6 State Senator Fenton Groen's announcement that he won't seek re-election.

After the Republican-controlled Senate went out of its way to "gerrymander" (perfectly legal of course) the district to make it much easier for Groen to be re-elected, now he decides not to run again. 

Truly, this is the unkindest cut of all, much worse than the decision from Berlin Republican Senator John Gallus last week. 

Rather than "Et tu Brute" perhaps a rock lyric would be more appropriate.

"Another one bites the dust."

And now there are seven incumbent Republican senators not seeking re-election (I include Andy Sanborn who's moving to a new district--Bedford--and will face a stiff primary challenge from Rep. Ken
Hawkins should he decide to run).

Conjure this image in your mind.  Ray Buckley and/or Kathy Sullivan are sitting back sticking pins in voodoo dolls.   Aha, got another one.

That's only a joke, so don't sic the PC police on me.

However, it seems clear that just as Speaker Bill O'Brien's tyranny has jeopardized Republican control of the 400-member body, Republican control of the Senate could be slipping away as well.

Last week, I presented my ratings showing how Democrats will be favored to capture the Gallus seat.  I hear that Berlin Democrat Rep Robert Theberge is running, and I assume he'll win.

Hold for a minute while I go to the files to get my numbers for the Groen district.  As I noted, it's been "gerrymandered" to make it much more Republican (with the addition of highly Republican Alton), but let's get specific.

Be right back.  Gotta go to my car.

----------------------------------

It was worth the wait.  Very interesting.

The new district six includes all of Rochester (about 30,000 people, more than half the district), Farmington, Milton, New Durham, Gilmanton, and Alton.

Keep in mind that 50.00 in my calculation means the district in exactly half Democratic and half Republican; 100.00 is all Republican; 0.00 is all Democratic.

Barrington, Madbury, Nottingham, and Somersworth (mostly Democratic areas) were removed from the district.  That's the way "gerrymandering" works.

Rochester is an excellent example of a neutral area.  It’s 50.01 (I kid you not) according to my numbers, but Alton is 63.93, Gilmanton 53.97, New Durham 56.58, Milton 52.42, and Farmington 53.34.

Thus, you can see that every town in the district is at least slightly Republican, so it should come as no surprise that the district’s rating will be overall in favor of a Republican, but note that it hasn’t been that way in recent years.

In 2002, I had the district with a 6.06 percent Democratic advantage, no surprise since Democrats held the seat until Groen upset Jackie Cilley in the Republican sweep year of 2010.

If no changes had been made in redistricting, I had the district with a 3.50 percent Democratic advantage, but of course, many changes were made, so many that my numbers show a 6.14 percent Republican advantage now (which would mean a generic 53-47 margin for a Republican candidate).

In other words, Republican Senate “gerrymanders” changed the district to make it 9.64 percent more Republican.

That’s why I reported last week that while Groen would be favored, he would not be a sure thing.

It becomes very interesting now that he’s out.  The most logical candidate would be a moderate from Rochester, someone in the Jackie Cilley tradition.

This district has changed so dramatically that numerous possibilities spring to mind.

For example, how about someone who was too “liberal” for the Republican party and is now a Democrat?  Yes that would be long-time Rochester Representative Sandy Keans.

Wouldn’t that be interesting?

For Republicans, no…I’m not even going to suggest Julie Brown who takes pride in being attacked by the right wing of her party, but another renegade Republican who just might do it would be Alton’s Representative Peter Bolster.  My choice would be former New Durham Republican Rep David Bickford.  He actually ran for the Senate last time, but New Durham was in with the Laconia district then.  The most logical candidate would be a Rochester Republican.  Hey, Senator Groen’s brother, Represenative Warren Groen, could do it.  He’s far too much of a social conservative for my taste, but then, it’s not my district.

Let the battle begin.

My early out on a limb prediction—Senator Sandy Keans; it has a good ring to it, and it would be a big gain for Democrats.

Comments

[Steven J. Connolly]

"Last week, I presented my ratings showing how Democrats will be favored to capture the Gallus seat. I hear that Berlin Democrat Rep Robert Theberge is running, and I assume he'll win."

No I haven't done the homework assignment of studying the statistical analysis of the the Red Book. But I'd still caution about calling this race for the democrat from Berlin.

Former Speaker Burns did hardly any advertising and still beat big spender Wayne Presby, remember that one?

There will be a Republican candiate that emerges and if they're reasonable and Burton endorsed they'll will. As to the idea that Theberge will run well south of Berlin this is incorrect. I don't care if the mills are gone and Berlin is now a green city there will always be a stigma attached to this area as being a poor mill town. Evidence will be found of this in increasingly snobby ex- Mass trash areas like Conway and the traditional elitist and 60s snobs like Sugar Hill and Franconia.

I'm confident there will be a candidate from the Littleton area probally someone I don't particulary like like Ralph Doolan; who thinks the future of northern New Hampshire is to turn it into a museum.

I'm sure the Democrats will also put up a really good fight. The newspapers stated that Martha McLeod hasn't responed to requests as to whether she will run. My guess here is no. I'm also hearing Rep. Evalyn Merrick from Lancaster is seriously looking at it. She could pull a Donna Soucy and frame herself as a moderate in sheeps clothing.

I still think the Republicans are going to do far better than you might believe.

[Timothy Horrigan]

I find it strange that so many first-term Senators are bailing out. Just running for Senate is a huge undertaking, especially the first time. Learning how the system works is a big undertaking too. You're throwing away a huge investment of time and effort if you walk out after a single term.

Fenton Groen in particular ran twice against a very tough opponent in Jackie Cilley. He wouldn't have had to run against her this time.

[Steven J. Connolly]

One reason is the continual disconnect between Concord and the rest of the state. For example; Sen Gallus was responding to costituant issues that should have been addressed by a respective state agency. Its too much work for so little in return even for a retiree. I think Bi Enenual Sessions would be a solution here there could also be s provision to allow for major committees like finance to meet and perhaps relevant study committees.

But it wont happen.

[C. dog]

Gee Timmy –
No suprise that you can't understand how someone wouldn't like making sausage from meat byproduct and entrails, or doesn't enjoy addressing the peeps soiled undergarments. Some folk just aren't cut out for this rewarding lifestyle. Not surprisingly, you are.
– C. dog, The Cur-rific

[Rep Steve Vaillancourt]

I did my homework last night, checking out the red books, and the news concerning Ralph Doolan is not positive. He lost to Harold Burns in 2000 for the Republican primary--by more than a two to one margin--2674-1297. He ran again in 2002 and captured only 22.1 percent of the vote in a three way primary for the seat. Some tell me he's responsible for the Gallus win since Gallus beat Brien Ward, of Littleton, 2696-2491, and Doolan took 1468 votes. Just look at the Gorham total--Gallus 193, Ward 45, Doolan 24. Berlin was even more overwhelming for Gallus; that's why I continue to say Robert Theberge will win handily. A little fact checking would be nice for those who wish to argue otherwise.
Annual sessions came about in 1984 when the most recent Constitutional Convention sent the measure to voters who approved it. It would require a new amendment to go back to the old way. Never gonna happen although mroe and more I tend to agree with Mark Twain that the taxpayer is only safe when the legislature is not in session. Was it Twain?