Expect Big Democratic Gains In Cities

Since my predictions for the 2012 New Hampshire House make-up depends so much on delegations from the state’s 13 cities, I’ve put this chart together of how the cities have flipped and flopped (and will likely flip again) recently.  As always for the sake of consistency, Republicans and always listed first; in other words 4-2 would mean 4 Republicans, 2 Democrats.  2012 numbers don’t add up to 134 due to loss of seats due to redistricting.  (The two Manchester/Litchfield seats are not counted here; the seats Portsmouth, Concord, Dover, and Franklin must share with towns ARE counted here).

City                 2008                2010                2012 Projection

Berlin               0-4                   1-3                   0-3

Claremont        1-4                   3-1                   2-2

Concord           0-13                 1-12                 0-13

Dover               0-9                   2-7                   1-8

Franklin            2-1                   0-3                   2-1

Keene              0-7                   0-7                   0-7

Laconia            2-3                   5-0                   3-2

Lebanon           0-4                   0-4                   0-4

Manchester      7-28                 21-14               6-25

Nashua             5-23                 22-6                 7-20

Portsmouth       0-7                   0-7                   0-7

Rochester         3-6                   7-2                   3-6

Somersworth    0-5                   2-3                   0-5

Total               20-114             67-67               24-103

                                               +47R/-47D       -43R/+36D