22 Incumbent State Reps Ousted In NH Primary

People have been emailing me with the question about losing incumbents in last week's primary, and I wanted to wait until I was sure to release the data.

It appears that 19 incumbent Republicans, for various reasons including attacks by the more conservative elements in their own party, and three Democratic incumbents were ousted, a number which I would deem in the normal range.

Two Democrats (Helen DeLoge of Concord and Chris Serlin of Portsmouth) lost because they had to face other incumbents due to redistricting.  The third, Jenna Roberts of Durham lost when five incumbents were running for five seats and were joined by former Representative and Finance Chair Marjorie Smith.

Thus, Democrats were not eating their own.7

Of the six Republicans most targeted for extinction, three survived and three were defeated, a .500 percentage which is good if you're shooting three pointers but pretty pathetic if you're shooting free throws.

With as much money as right wing organizations were able to pour into their venomous attacks, including money from the Koch brothers group, free throws might be a more appropriate analogy yet Priscilla Lockwood, of Canterbury, Susan Emerson, of Rindge, and Tim Copeland, of Stratham all held on to win albeit by only eight votes in the case of Copeland, one of the anti-right to workers targeted by his own party.

Here's what I've done.  I've looked up the HRA score for the 22 losers.  This is the House Republican Alliance, the conservative organization which rates all Reps on nearly every important vote.

Look at these and you are sure to agree that it wasn't just those with low HRA scores (some dare call them RINOs) who were defeated, but just as many with high HRA scores.  Thus, it would NOT be accurate to say the more moderate Republicans were the only ones eliminated.

But don't take my word for it.  Here are the numbers for ousted Republicans.

Elaine Swinford, Barnstead (Criminal Justice Chair!)--86

Peter Boster, Alton (targeted)--56

Richard Dwinell, Cheshire 11 (three incumbents running for only two seats)--70

Bill Remick, Lancaster (targeted)--45

Russell Day, Goffstown--64

Laura Gandia, Litchfield (a true conservative but not for right to work; she lost by only eight votes, a real shocker, and she told me at the Unity Breakfast that she is devastated)--82

Barry Palmer, Nashua--79

Jonathan Maltz, Hudson--95 (much higher than His Vileness who survived!)

Randy Brownrigg, Hudson--82 (also higher than the surviving Vileness)

Jerry Bergevin, Manchester--86 (the only Manchester incumbent to lose--it was misreported on the Secretary of State's web site earlier; Jerry is a rabid social conservative but I found him to be a man of honor unlike some who won!  He lost to current Rep Swank and former Rep Hirschmann)

Tony Soltani, Merrimack 21--75 (anti right to work and anti-O'Brien)

Joanne Ward, Stratham--78

David Welch, Rockingham 13--78 (a real stunner; former Criminal Justice Chair, word is that pro gun people targeted him since he had the audacity to oppose them once or twice after being with them for years on most issues!)

Marie Sapienza, Rockingham 34--93

Glenn Ritter, Rockingham 16--96!

Karen Hutchinson, Londonderry--80 (however, her attendance was very bad due to an illness)

Donna Mauro, Rockingham 7--90

Kirsten Schultz, Strafford 21--78

Julie Brown, Rochester--33 (heavily target, she had the lowest HRA score among Republicans and lost by more than a two to one margin to fellow incumbent Cliff Newton)

Susan Emerson was the most targeted.  She showed me eight mailings "they" did against here, including one which pictures her as part of the Obama-Pelosi-Barney Frank! team!   Fortunately for Susan, as Priscilla Lockwood noted in a media report, it's not as easy to knock someone out with vile tactics in a small town as in a big city where candidates are not as well known.

In at least one instance (Remick), I am moving the seat from likely Republican to likely Democrat since the strongest Republican was beaten in the primary.  I'm calling this the "I Am Not A Witch" syndrome.  Remick could have beaten Evlyn Merrick in the general, but now she will win (good; I like her a lot; but then I liked Remick as well).

Comments

[Timothy Horrigan]

In Durham it was actually 6 candidates running for 5 seats. 4 of the nominees are from Durham; 1 (Janet Wall) is from the much smaller town of Madbury.

[Rep Dan McGuire]

In Swinford's case it was a situation where two good Reps, Guy Comtois being the other one, were thrown together by redistricting. One of them had to lose.

[Joshua]

The pro-marriage equality group, Freedom To Marry, put out a press release stating that every GOP incumbent targeted by the National Organization for Marriage won their primary. I haven't independently checked this, but FTM is not one to misstate something like this and I have not seen any refutation by NOM.

[Rep Steve Vaillancourt]

Thanks Tim. As I've said in the past, I'm not perfect and appreciate being corrected. Janet Wall has been around longer than I have--she often gets written in by Republicans to be on both sides. Congrats!
Dan is right about Elaine Swinford, but that was the exception rather than the rule with the GOP.
As to Republicans targeted by the anti-gays, I know Mike Ball and I survived in Manchester albeit both coming in second in two-member districts. In Ball's district, another pro-gay marriage Republican, Win Hutchinson, also won easily and one of the Dems is the openly gay Robert Thompson!
Some person purporting to be Silas has been banned here for an ad hominem attack. Comments, albeit now ad homineum slurs, are always welcome here. Silas accused me of liking RINOs. I suggest anyone who thinks that review my writing of the past two years. I am more conservative (fiscally) than any Republican including the Finance Chair and the Speaker. I will not be slurred by ignorant people like this Silas cat! At least not on own blog. I was simply reporting here, not expressing likes or dislikes.

[Silas de Goute]

Silas continues his ad hominem attacks; I continue to delete them.

[Silas de Goute]

Steve responds:

The person claiming to be Silas has tried to post here again, but Silas, ol buddy, ol pal, we have a rule here. Once you've been banned, you are never welcome again. You have been banned. I, not you, determine what is an ad hominem attack, and your words used here qualified as ad hominem. Thus, you may continue to post here knowing that as soon as I see your words, they will be erased. I like Remick a great deal, but that doesn't mean I support his ideas. Unlike most hacks like Silas, I can separate people I like on a personal level from those I agree with. Some people I truly despise (the Rep from Litchfield, a truly vile little creature) I agree with on most issues. On the other hand, some people I almost never agree with, I like a great deal. Some of my very best friends are big spending Democrats. So to attack me for whom I choose to like is simply not acceptable here. Of course, there are also people I both like and agree with--Seth Cohn comes to mind immediately.

Like someone who comes as a guest in my house and decides to whip it out and urinate on the living room carpet,Silas is no longer welcome in this, my blogging house. Bye, bye!

[Timothy Horrigan]

Dan: I understand how your feelings were hurt bad, real bad, when you were called "anti-gay." We liberals argue a lot amongst ourselves, which has its good points and its bad points. One good point is that it makes us tougher. One bad point is that we lose sight of what delicate flowers the good folks on the right are when we are debating emotional issues like marriage equality. We liberals forget how easy it is to hurt a rightwinger's feelings. We forget how fragile conservatives' egos are.

[RINO Safari]

Actually Steve on a hunch I looked up Rep T's voting and attendance records:

Steve responds--RINO you are simply wrong. You better look again. He missed 76.5 percent of the 2012 votes, a fact reported by the Monitor. When you get the right answer, I expect an apology here. It's not that easy to check voting records with House clerk!!! As you penance, your assignment is to fill in these blanks. Of ______ roll call votes, he missed _________; 76.5 percent!

[RINO Safari]

We're still waiting for RINO to complete that assignment...or else he will lose ALL credibility.

[RINO Safari]

Since I happen to know someone very well in the House Clerk's office I fact checked your assertion. Both you and the Concord Monitor are WRONG:

Rep Daniel Tamburello (R-Londonderry)


Steve responds--I wasn't talking about Tamburello; the T was Tom Katsiantonis, Ward 8 Manchester. But since you issue an ad hominem attack, I've had to ban you Mr. Safari. Too bad; you cannot slur me (or anyone and hope to appear here).

Tommy the K was present for only 68 of 289 votes, 23.5 percent.
Since I have the sheets in front of me, I'll fill in the blanks which I had previously assigned. Tamburello in 2012 was present for 127 of 289 votes or 43.9 percent which is, as I asserted, less than 50 percent. Please Mr. Rino don't darken this site with you slurs and mis-information any more

[Timothy Horrigan]

The number of roll call votes per session day varies widely: we have some days when we had no roll calls at all, and others where we have dozens of roll call votes. That would explain the discrepancy between attendance %age and roll call %age.

Also, if you don't sign in for mileage (e.g., because you carpooled with a colleague) that doesn't necessarily mean you didn't show up. Indeed, there are cases where a member calls in to get an excused absence and shows up anyway. If there are no roll call votes, that member could be mistakenly marked as absent. (However, they do try to track to your absence or presence by having you press the "green button" at the end of the day and by asking you to check in with the clerk when you arrive late or leave early.)

[Rep AL Baldasaro]

Baldie has been permanently deleted from this blog.
Steve responds.
Stop trying to respond here Al. You've been banned. As a right wing law and order type, you should respect the law and stop desecrating it...stop whipping your thing out and urinating on this rug. Once you're banned, there's no getting back here, not even if you...