Republicans are not going to like these numbers, but since it’s the same poll which shows Mitt Romney ahead of Barack Obama by 1.5 points in New Hampshire, Republicans really can’t shoot the messenger.
Even worse for Republicans, when you look at the internals of the Nelson A. Rockefeller Center poll out of Dartmouth College, you discover that Republicans are actually over weighted in the sample—Democrats 27.2 percent, Republicans 33.6 percent, and Undeclareds 38.1 percent—in a state in which registered Republicans and Democrats are just about even and Undeclareds are 45 percent of the population.
Rather than offer editorial comments on each and every number, I’m just going to print the results here with the overall comment that this is the first real indictment we’ve seen against Speaker Bill O’Brien and his attempt to hijack the state and the Republican Party with a radical right wing agenda. Note that the Legislature is out of favor by 15 points, that gay marriage is supported by nearly a two to one margin, and on and on.
It wasn’t easy finding the polling data—it’s very detailed—but I located it and spent the weekend analyzing the results. At such an early stage in the electoral process, it should not come as a surprise that some many are undecided for so many questions (including the race for governor). Apparently the pollsters made no attempt to “push” the undecided one way or another, so I would suggest the margins are most important at this state.
Opposition to the ten cent cigarette tax decrease, pushed by Speaker Bill O’Brien last year, is nearly as great among Republicans as Democrats and Undeclared voters. Similarly, supporting for banning cell phone use while driving crosses party lines (except apparnetly with O'Brien Republicans).
I've provided exact wording on two of the questions.
As always, you don’t need to take my word for what I write here.
The contact at the top of the press release is Professor Ronald G. Shaiko (Ronald.firstname.lastname@example.org). As always, we anxiously await data from other pollsters to either confirm or contradict these numbers.
Here are the some of the many results:
President: (Romney always listed first)
President Obama—39.2-48.1 (minus 8.9; last year it was minus10.4)
Governor Lynch—59-12 (+47; was +51.6 % last year)
Senator Jeanne Shaheen—40-29 (+11)
Senator Kelly Ayotte—36-24 (+12)
New Hampshire Legislature Performance
Approve—21.9% (24.0 % last year)
Disapprove—36.1 % (37.8 % last year)
Margin—Disapprove 14.2 % (-13.8 % last year)
Same Sex Marriage (support listed first)
Support—55.1 % (41.5 % last year)
Oppose—30.9 % (42.2 % last year)
Margin—Support +24.2 % (last year minus 0.7%)
Expansion of Gambling
("Do you support or oppose the expansion of gambling in New Hampshire to include video slot machines and casinos?")
Favor--40.9% (last year 41.5 %)
Oppose--41.6 % (last year 41.3%)
Margin--(-0.7 percent; last year +0.2%)
10 cent per pack cigarette DECREASE
Ban on Cellular Phone Use While Driving
Margin—Oppose 36.7 %
Allowing Students Who Attend NH Colleges To Vote There
Margin-- +2.2 %
Allowing Guns On College Campuses/State Property
Margin--+48.5 % oppose
Employer Refusing Contraception
(“Do you support or oppose allowing an employer to refuse to provide contraceptive coverage in insurance plans on religious grounds?”
Margin--+24.6 percent oppose
Choice For Governor