Despite the support of prospective Speaker Bill O'Brien, R-Mt. Vernon, and of Senate President Chuck Morse, R-Salem, don't expect New Hampshire to become a right to work state in the next two years.
The legislation may well be introduced, and with a 239-161 Republican advantage in the House, it most likely will survive the first obstacle.
However, the bill most likely will never clear the Senate and even if it does, chances of an override of Governor Maggie Hassan's all but certain veto are close to zero.
With Republican of the Senate only 14-10 and with Republicans Senators David Boutin, of Manchester, and Sharon Carson, of Londonderry, historically opposed to right to work, it's tough to see how right to work supporters get to 13 votes.
Passage in the House, while likely, is not a certainty. Remember that in the 2011-12 session, Republicans enjoyed a 298-102 edge in the House, and O'Brien, despite using every ploy in a Speaker's bag of tricks (totally legal of course), could not even come close to getting the two-thirds required for an override.
Traditionally 30-40 Republicans have opposed right to work. My quick look at the lay of the land reveals that number has been cut in half.
Let's say two dozen anti-right to work Republican opponents remain in the House (I could name names but won't). Let's also say that every Democrat except two is opposed Let's also postulate that every House member is there for a given vote (that, of course, will never happen), that means that right to should pass with a 20-40 vote majority, between 210-190 and 220-180.
239 minus 24 equals 215 plus two equals 217.
161 plus 24 equals 185 minus two equals 183.
That's a far cry from the 267-133 which would be required to override a veto, so the issue is really dead on arrival for the next two years.
Three things are required for right to work to become reality in New Hampshire.
1) A Republican edge in the 220-180 range in the House.
2) A 15th Republican state senator (as long as Boutin and Carson are still two of the 14).
3) Most importantly, a Republican governor who will not veto the bill.
With Maggie Hassan most likely running against U.S. Senator Kelly Ayotte in 2016 (and failing miserably thus serving as a drag on Democrats on down the ballot), Republicans should have the 220 Reps and could well have the governorship (Walt Havenstein came closer than most pundits thought he would). Whether they can get a 15th State Senator...hey, we're getting way ahead of ourselves.
One thing is sure. An attempt will have to be made again in 2017 because right to work is sure to fail in 2015-16.