Rep Steve Vaillancourt
If the past in any indication--and it most certainly is--expect upwards of three-quarters of a million votes to be cast in New Hampshire on November 6. Turnout is always up substantially (nearly 75 percent) in a Presidential year over the previous year (2012 vs. 2010).
Here are the numbers for the past four election cycles. Note that not only the numbers of absentee ballots cast is way up, but the percentage is also way up in Presidential years (5.8-6.5 percent vs. 9.1-10.0 percent).
683,672 votes cast
62,059 absentee, 9.1 percent
417,436 votes cast
24,380 absentee, 5.8 percent
719,403 votes cast
72,264 absentee, 10.0 percent
461,423 votes cast
30,032 absentee, 6.5 percent
That's a 72.3 percent increase from the 2006 total to the 2008 number adn then a 35.9 percent decrease for the 2010 off year election.
If we were to increase 72.3 percent from the 2010 number for the 2012 turnout, turnout would be 795,032. However, that's not likely since population growth has basically stopped in the past four years.
I've also run the numbers for Manchester turnout. Most likely, we'll see 50,000 votes cast in the city this year. That's three and a half times the number cast in last year's city election (less than 15,000). Amazing. Note that Manchester's percent of the total votes cast in the state is slightly higher in Presidential years.
Manchester Votes Cast--2004--47,130 (6.9 percent of state)
Manchester Votes Cast--2006--27,260 (6.5 percent of state)
Manchester Votes Cast--2008--49,147 (6.8 percent of state)
Manchester Votes Cast--2010--30,309 (6.6 percent of state)
I've got a ward-by-ward chart which I'll show on next week's edition of The Liberty Express (Monday at 10 p.m. on Channel 23; also Thursday at 9 p.m., Sunday at 6 a.m. and noon; always available at vimeo.com/channels/libertyx).