Rep Steve Vaillancourt



Wednesday
Oct032012

Updated NH House Projection--Democrats Gain One More, Now Trail 201-198-1

Since the September primary, I have made 11 changes in my prediction of NH House seats.  However, since five of the changes benefit Republicans and six benefit Democrats, the net change is only a plus one for Democrats, bringing the total to 201 Republicans, 198 Democrats, and 1 Independent.

These changes are based on numbers posted in the primary.  For example, Republicans found two write-in candidates in the town of Belmont (Belknap County), and it now appears they will capture both those seats in a highly Republican town in November.

I’m moving a Coos County seat to the Democratic column due to the loss of Republican incumbent William Remick in the primary (I’m calling this “The I am not a witch” syndrome, in honor of the Republican Senate primary candidate in Delaware being unable to hold a seat which would otherwise have gone Republican two years ago!  We could also call it the "Republicans eat their own" syndrome.) 

Based on projections that Obama will do well in the Grafton County area, I’ve moved two of the floterial seats there into the Democratic column.

In Hillsborough County, I’m moving three seats in Manchester to the Republican column (Win Hutchinson in Ward 2; Emily Sandblade in Ward 11; and Kathy Souza in the floterial involving wards 4, 5, 6, and 7).  It is, after all, Ovide's home turf.  However, I’m moving one of the three Weare/Deering seats to Democrats (Evelyn Connor) ; one of the five seats in Goffstown to Democrats (Ruth Gage); and one of the eight seats in the town of Merrimack (no one specifically) to Democrats….thus it’s a wash in Hillsborough County.  These changes are based on one of the candidates making such a strong primary showing (or one of the other party’s candidates making such a weak showing) that changes are likely although by no means certain.

I have real doubts about keeping an Amherst seat in the Independent column.  The greater the turnout, the more difficult it is for an Independent to win, and turnout should be very heavy this year.  However, the last time Cynthia Dokmo was on the general election ballot with both Robert Rowe and Steve Stepanek (2006), she finished 600 votes or so ahead of both of them, so at least for now, I’m staying with her as a winner.  Consider this an extremely low level of confidence pick.  Were it not to happen, Republicans would have a 202-198 edge in my calculations.

For the sake of clarity, I’m reproducing all forecasts here with the changes in bold (and notations at the side).  I have considered another dozen changes (including my own ward; some say I will lose), but decline to make any further changes at this time.  Note that were I to offer these changes, they would pretty much cancel each other out, so I am confident with the overall margin as expressed here.  Also note that these numbers are pretty much in line with those from Democrat numbers cruncher William Tucker who today projected a 200-200 split.  His work is based on sheer numbers (using a computer model with Obama carrying the state by 3.8 points); my projections take individuals into account a bit more, but our end result is nearly identical.

Bye, bye, BillyO.

For the sake of consistency, Republicans are always listed first.2012 New Hampshire State Represenative Projections By County

 

                                  2012 Projection

County                        R        D     I               2010 R/D

Belknap                        13        5                      18        0         +2R

Carroll                          12        3                      14        0

Cheshire                       5          18                    10        14

Coos                              4          6                     6          5           +1D

Grafton                        9           18                   13        13           +2D

Hillsborough                 62        59     1             102      21          +3R/+3D

Merrimack                    16        29                    27        17

Rockingham                 69        21                    80        10

Strafford                       7          30                    19        18

Sullivan                         4          9                      9          4

TOTAL                       201      198   1             298      102

 

Belknap          Area                            #Reps R        D

Be1      New Hampton, Ctr. Harbor      1          1          0

Be2      Meredith, Gilford                      4          3          1

Be3      Laconia                                    4          2          2

Be4      Sanbornton, Tilton                    2          1          1

Be5      Gilmanton, Alton                       2          2          0

Be6      Belmont                                    2          2           0     +2R

Be7      Barnstead                                 1          1          0

Be8      Float Districts 5 and 7               1          1          0

Be9      Float Districts 3 and 6               1          0          1

BE       2012 COUNTY TOTAL                18        13        5  

BE       2010 COUNTY TOTAL                18        18        0

 

Carroll            Area                            #Reps R        D

Ca1      Bartlett, Jackson                       1          1          0

Ca2      Conway, Eaton, Chatham         3          1          2

Ca3      Albany, Freedom, Tamworth    2          2          0

Ca4      Moulton, Sandwich, Tufton       2          2          0

Ca5      Brookfield, Ossipee, Wkfld      3          3          0

Ca6      Wolfeboro                                2          2          0

Ca7      Float Districts 1 and 2               1          0          1

Ca8      Float Districts 4 and 5               1          1          0

CA       2012 COUNTY TOTAL                15        12        3

CA       2010 COUNTY TOTAL                14        14        0

 

Cheshire         Area                            #Reps R         D

Ch1      Chest, Hinsdale, Walpole          4          0          4

Ch2      Alstead, Marlow, Surry            1          0          1

Ch3      Gilsum, Stoddard, Nelson         1          1          0

Ch4      Keene 1                                   1          0          1

Ch5      Keene 2                                   1          0          1

Ch6      Keene 3                                   1          0          1

Ch7      Keene 4                                   1          0          1

Ch8      Keene 5                                   1          0          1

Ch9      Dublin, Jaffrey, Harris   2          0          2

Ch10    Marlborough, Troy                   1          0          1

Ch11    Fitzwilliam, Rindge                    2          2          0

Ch12    Richmond, Swanzey                 2          1          1

Ch13    Winchester                               1          0          1

Ch14    Float Districts 9 and 11 1          1          0

Ch15    Float Dists 10, 12, and 13        1          0          1

Ch16    Float All of Keene                    2          0          2

CH       2012 COUNTY TOTAL               23        5          18

CH       2010 COUNTY TOTAL               24        10        14

 

Coos                Area                            #Reps R         D

Co1     Colebrook, Pittsburg, Etc         2          2          0

Co2     Northum, Dummer, Milan         1          0          1

Co3     Berlin                                       3          0          3

Co4     Lancaster, Dalton, Kilkenny      1        0          1        +1D

Co5     Carroll, Jeff, Whitefld, Rand      1          1          0

Co6     Gorham, Shelburne, Etc            1          0          1

Co7     Float Districts 2, 4, and 5          1          1          0

COOS 2012 COUNTY TOTAL               10        4          6

COOS 2010 COUNTY TOTAL               11        6         5

 

Grafton           Area                            #Reps R         D

Gr1      Littleton, Bethlehem                 2          2          0

Gr2      Franc, Lisbon, Lyman, Etc        1          0          1

Gr3      Bath, Orf, Warren, Pier Etc      1          0          1

Gr4      Haverhill                                  1          1          0

Gr5      Lincoln, Woodstock. WV          1          1          0

Gr6      Rumney, Thornton, Groton       1          1          0

Gr7      Campton                                  1          0          1

Gr8      Plymouth, Holderness               3          0          3

Gr9      Ashland, Bristol, Bridge            2          2          0

Gr10    Enfield                                      1          0          1

Gr11    Canaan, Dorchester                  1          0          1

Gr12    Hanover, Lyme                          4          0          4

Gr13    Lebanon                                   4          0          4

Gr14    Float Districts 1 and 2               1          1          0

Gr15    Float Districts 3 and 4               1          1          0

Gr16    Float Districts 6 and 11 1          1          0           1         +1D

Gr17    Float Districts 9 and 10 1          1           0          1          +1D

GR       2012 COUNTY TOTAL              27        9          18

GR       2010 COUNTY TOTAL              26        13        13

 

Hillsborough        Area                       #Reps R         D

Hi1       Antrim, Hillsborough                 2          0          2

Hi2       Weare, Deering                        3            2           1          +1D

Hi3       Bennington, Hancock                1          0          1

Hi4       Francestown, Wilton, Lynd       2          1          1

Hi5       New Boston, Mt Vernon          2          1          1

Hi6       Goffstown                                5          4           1         +1D

Hi7       Bedford                                    6          6          0

Hi8       Manchester 1                           2          0          2

Hi9       Manchester 2                           2          1          1         +1R

Hi10     Manchester 3                           2          0          2

Hi11     Manchester 4                           2          0          2

Hi12     Manchester 5                           2          0          2

Hi13     Manchester 6                           2          1          1

Hi14     Manchester 7                           2          0          2

Hi15     Manchester 8                           2          2          0

Hi16     Manchester 9                           2          0          2

Hi17     Manchester 10                         2          2          0

Hi18     Manchester 11                         2           1           1         +1R    

Hi19     Manchester 12                         2          1          1

Hi20     Litchfield                                  2          2          0

Hi21     Merrimack                               8           7           1          +1D

Hi22     Amherst                                   3          1          1          1

Hi23     Milford                                     4          4          0

Hi24     Peterborough                           2          0          2

Hi25     New Ipswich, Temple               2          2          0

Hi26     Brookline, Mason                     2          1          1

Hi27     Hollis                                        2          2          0

Hi28     Nashua 1                                  3          2          1

Hi29     Nashua 2                                  3          1          2

Hi30     Nashua 3                                  3          0          3

Hi31     Nashua 4                                  3          0          3

Hi32     Nashua 5                                  3          1          2

Hi33     Nashua 6                                  3          0          3

Hi34     Nashua 7                                  3          1          2

Hi35     Nashua 8                                  3          1          2

Hi36     Nashua 9                                  3          1          2

Hi37     Hudson, Pelham                       11        8          3

Hi38     Float Districts 1, 3, and 4          2          1          1

Hi39     Float Districts 2 and 6               1          1          0

Hi40     Float Dists 5, 23, and 27          1          1          0

Hi41     Float Districts 7 and 22             1          1          0

Hi42     Float Manch 1, 2, 3                  2          0          2

Hi43     Float Manch 4, 5, 6, 7              3           1           2         +1R

Hi44     Float Manch 8, 9, Litch            2          1          1

Hi45     Float Manch 10, 11, 12            2          0          2

HI        2012 COUNTY TOTAL             122      62        59        1

HI        2010 COUNTY TOTAL             123      102      21

 

Merrimack                 Area                #Reps R         D

Me1     Andover, Danbury, Salisbury    1          1          0

Me2     Franklin 1 Wds 1, 2, Hill           2          1          1

Me3     Franklin Wd 3, Northfield         2          1          1

Me4     Sutton, Wilmot             1          0          1

Me5     New London, Newbury            2          2          0

Me6     Bradford, Henniker                   2          0          2

Me7     Warner, Webster                      1          0          1

Me8     Boscawen                                1          0          1

Me9     Canterbury, Loudon                 2          1          1

Me10   Concord Wd 5, Hopkinton       3          0          3

Me11   Concord Ward 1                      1          0          1

Me12   Concord Ward 2                      1          0          1

Me13   Concord Ward 3                      1          0          1

Me14   Concord Ward 4                      1          0          1

Me15   Concord Ward 6                      1          0          1

Me16   Concord Ward 7                      1          0          1

Me17   Concord Ward 8                      1          0          1

Me18   Concord Ward 9                      1          0          1

Me19   Concord Ward 10                    1          0          1

Me20   Chichester, Pembroke              3          1          2

Me21   Epsom, Pittsfield                       2          2          0

Me22   Allenstown                               1          1          0

Me23   Bow, Dunbarton                       3          1          2

Me24   Hooksett                                  4          4          0

Me25   Float Districts 1 and 7               1          0          1

Me26   Float Districts 3, 8, 9                1          0          1

Me27   Float Concord 1,2,3,4,6,7        2          0          2

Me28   Float Concord 8,9,10               1          0          1

Me29   Float Districts 21 and 22           1          1          0

ME      2012 COUNTY TOTAL              45        16        29

ME      2010 COUNTY TOTAL              44        27        17

 

Rockingham               Area                #Reps R         D

Ro1      Northwood                              1          0          1

Ro2      Candia, Deeefld, Nottingham    3          3          0

Ro3      Raymond                                  2          3          0

Ro4      Auburn, Sandown                     5          5          0

Ro5      Londonderry                            7          7          0

Ro6      Derry                                       10        8          2

Ro7      Windham                                  4          4          0

Ro8      Salem                                       9          8          1

Ro9      Epping                                      2          2          0

Ro10    Fremont                                   1          1          0

Ro11    Brentwood                               1          1          0

Ro12    Danville                                    1          1          0

Ro13    Hampstead, Kingston               4          4          0

Ro14    Atkinson, Plaistow                    4          4          0

Ro15    Newton                                    1          1          0

Ro16    E Kings, Kens, S Hampton       1          1          0

Ro17    Newfields, Newmarket 3          0          3

Ro18    Exeter                                      4          2          2

Ro19    Stratham                                   2          1          1

Ro20    Seabrook, Hampton Falls         3          3          0

Ro21    Hampton                                  4          2          2

Ro22    North Hampton                        1          1          0

Ro23    Greenland, Newington  1          1          0

Ro24    Rye, New Castle                      2          1          1

Ro25    Portsmouth Ward 1                  1          0          1         

Ro26    Portsmouth Ward 2                  1          0          1

Ro27    Portsmouth Ward 3                  1          0          1

Ro28    Portsmouth Ward 4                  1          0          1

Ro29    Portsmouth Ward 5                  1          0          1

Ro30    Float Ports 1, 2, 4, 5                1          0          1

Ro31    Float Dists 22, 23, and 27        1          0          1

Ro32    Float Districts 1 and 2               1          1          0

Ro33    Float Districts 10, 11, 12          1          1          0

Ro34    Float Districts 13 and 14           1          1          0

Ro35    Float Districts 15 and 16           1          1          0

Ro36    Float Districts 17 and 18           1          0          1

Ro37    Float Districts 20 and 21           1          1          0

RO       2012 COUNTY TOTAL               90        69        21

RO       2010 COUNTY TOTAL              90        80        10

 

Strafford                     Area                #Reps R         D

St1       Middleton, Milton                     2          1          1

St2       Farmington                               2          1          1

St3       New Durham, Strafford            2          1          1

St4       Barrington                                2          0          2

St5       Lee                                          1          0          1

St6       Durham, Madbury                    5          0          5

St7       Rochester Ward 1                    1          0          1

St8       Rochester Ward 6                    1          0          1

St9       Rochester Ward 2                    1          0          1

St10     Rochester Ward 3                    1          1          0

St11     Rochester Ward 4                    1          0          1

St12     Rochester Ward 5                    1          0          1

St13     Dover Ward 1                          1          0          1

St14     Dover Ward 2                          1          0          1

St15     Dover Ward 3                          1          0          1

St16      Dover Ward 4                         1          0          1

St17     Dover Wds 5,6 Somer Wd2     3          1          2

St18     Somer1,3,4,5, Rollinsford         3          0          3

St19     Float Dover Wards 1 and 2      1          0          1

St20     Float Dover Wards 3 and 4      1          0          1

St21     Float Dover Wards 5 and 6      1          0          1

St22     Float Roch Wards 1 and 6        1          0          1

St23     Float Roch Wards 2 and 3        1          1          0

St24     Float Roch Wards 4 and 5        1          1          0

St25     Float  Barrington, Lee               1          0          1

ST        2012 COUNTY TOTAL              37        7          30

ST        2010 COUNTY TOTAL              37        19        18

 

Sullivan                       Area                #Reps  R       D

Su1      Corn, Gran, Plainfld, Spring      2          0          2

Su2      Sunapee, Croydon                   1          0          1

Su3      Claremont Ward 1                    1          0          1

Su4      Claremont Ward 2                    1          0          1

Su5      Claremont Ward 3                    1          0          1

Su6      Newport, Unity                         2          2          0

Su7      Act, Gos, Lem, Lang, Wash      1          1          0

Su8      Charlestown                             1          0          1

Su9      Float Districts 1 and 2               1          0          1

Su10    Float Claremont Wards            1          0          1

Su11    Float Districts   7 and 8             1          1          0

SU       2012 COUNTY TOTAL               13        4          9

SU       2010 COUNTY TOTAL               13        9          4

Wednesday
Oct032012

The Week In Polls--Oct. 3--A Lighter Shade Of Blue

            The bad news for Republicans heading into tonight’s first Presidential debate is that Mitt Romney trails in almost every poll, by an average of three points in the Real Clear Politics Average, and that Democrats have moved ahead in enough states to maintain control of the United States Senate.  In fact, had I written about the polls a week ago, I would have used the headline, “Blue, blue, all is blue.”

            Note that we’ve gone to a lighter shade of blue for this week’s headline because there’s good news for Republicans.  A week ago, Obama was up four points in the Real Clear Politics average, so he’s lost a point prior to the debate, and many of the State Senate races are too close for comfort either way. 

            For example, as of today RCP has Republicans picking up three seats (Montana, North Dakota, and Nebraska) but losing two (Maine and Massachusetts) for a net gain of one, leaving Democrats with 52-48 control of the Senate.

            The biggest surprises are Wisconsin where Democrat Tammy Baldwin has moved five points ahead of former Governor Tommy Thompson (so much for Paul Ryan helping the ticket in his home state) and Connecticut where wrestling maven Linda McMahon has moved within a couple points of Democrat Chris Murphy (Pollster actually has her 0.3 points ahead in its averages).  It’s so tight in the Nutmeg State that ultra liberal media phenom Chris Matthews is actually picking McMahon to win.

            Elizabeth Warren has taken the lead from Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown in recent days (up between one and two points depending on which average one uses), but I suspect that’s because Obama has pulled so far ahead in the Bay State that he’s taken Warren with him.  Look for 60-40 as the over-under there.  If Obama hits 60 percent at the top of the ticket, Brown will be in trouble.

            The three big states at the Presidential level (Florida, Virginia, and Ohio) now have three Democrats in rather firm control for the Senate.  Kaine has moved 4.8 points ahead of Allen in one Virginia average, 1.9 points in another.  Sherrod Brown and Bill Nelson are also farther ahead than I thought they’d be, Brown by as much as nine points over Josh Mandel in Ohio (I thought Brown would be in trouble, but like in Massachusetts, Obama appears to have coattails here).

            You know you’re being inundated with polls when even the averages tell different stories.

            Going into tonight’s debate, Obama is up 49.1-46.0 (3.1 points) in the RCP average.  He’s up 48.7-44.4 (4.3 points) in the Pollster average.  Pollster has him with 303 electoral votes to 191 for Romney with only North Carolina and Florida as toss-ups.  Update--it just changed to 290-191; they moved Virginia back to toss-up.   See what a state of flux we're in!

            RCP has Obama at 269 (enough for an Electoral College tie) and Romney at 181.  Thus Romney would have to win all the toss-up states (Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, Virginia, Florida where Obama leads and North Carolina and Missouri where Romney is ahead).  Ohio and New Hampshire are in the Obama camp according to both surveys.

            Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com (my favorite numbers cruncher) give Obama an 84.7 percent chance to be re-elected.  He has the Electoral College at 319-218 and the popular vote at plus 3.9 percent for Obama (51.4-47.5).

            For the record, let’s get individual polling numbers out at this landmark juncture.

            National Journal is out today with a 47-47 tie.  Gallup has Obama up four (49-45); even Rasmussen (which Fox News usually point to as it tries to make the race look close) has Obama up two today (49-47).

            That 49-47 seems to be a magic number.  That’s exactly what ABC News/Washington Post and Politico/GWU/Battleground polls have Obama up. NPR, on the other hand, has the Demagogue in Chief up seven points (51-44).  Never trust NPR!

            State polls usually take a few days to reflect gaps closing, but NBC/Marist has Obama’s lead down to only a point (47-46) today in Florida and only two (48-46) in Virginia.  He still leads by eight in Ohio (51-43), a real problem for Romney.  Again, so much for that strategy of picking Ryan to help in the Midwest.  I contended all along that Romney really needed a boost in the Southwestern states which Marco Rubio could have provided.  If Romney loses by failing to carry Colorado and Nevada (not to mention Florida), blame it on the Veep pick!

            The good news for Republicans is that they continue to hold a lead in the generic Congressional ballot and will most likely maintain a fairly big lead in the House.  RCP pegs it at 226-183, a 43 seat advantage.  After Rasmussen had Democrats ahead by a single point a few weeks ago, it’s back to a four point Republican lead now (45-41).  The RCP average has it virtually tied, but they factor in some Democrat polling outfits (such as NPR) which simply cannot be trusted.

            While we can’t look at all the polls out this week, two stand out as indications why the GOP should hold the House.  In Massachusetts, the tainted Congressman John Tierney has fallen six points behind Richard Tisei (37-31) in the sixth district, and in Utah, Saratoga Springs mayor Mia Love (the African American who wowed the country at the GOP convention) has moved from 15 points down to six points ahead (49-43) of  Jim Matheson.

            Lest I be accused of cherry picking positive polls for Republicans, I refer you back to the slew of bad news for the GOP at the Senate level.  In fact, look at Indiana which appeared to be a sure hold for Republicans with Dick Lugar six months ago.  He was ousted by Richard Mourdock to his right in the primary, and now Democrat Joe Donnelly is running neck and neck and is actually up by two points in one poll.  I doubt he’ll pull the upset, but it’s a sign of the blue wave that this one is even close.

Missouri is particularly intriguing.  After being left for dead by his fellow Republicans, Todd Akin is within 2.3 points of Clair McCaskill in the RCP averages.  Rasmussen and PPP both have him down six (46-40), but We Ask American has McCaskill up only one (46-45).  Go figure.

I’m having trouble making sense out of the WMUR/Granite State poll, not the one which has Obama up 15 points over Romney in New Hampshire but the one which has Maggie Hassan up two points over Ovide LaMontagne either 42-40 or 38-36 depending on which sampling you focus on.  Ovide is doing much better with independent voters than Romney, so he should be doing better overall, but with so many undecided voters, it doesn’t really matter at this point.  Time will tell on that race.  I was going to write a blog that if only we had the None of the Above option; New Hampshire would be better served.

Maybe tomorrow….  

National RCP Poll Average

49.1 Obama (+3.1)   Romney 46.0
 
Tuesday
Oct022012

With Obama Up 15 Points In NH...What About Coattails?

 

If you, like me, choose to bing it (google is so yesterday), you'll notice what widespread nationwide attention yesterday's  WMUR/Granite State poll (conducted by Andy Smith at UNH) is getting.
That's the poll that shows President Obama has extended his lead from five points to 15 points here.  The worst news for Republicans is that it doesn't appear to be an oversampling of Democrats which has caused this shift.  Obama leads by 16 points (54-38) among undeclared (independent) voters which make up the largest share in New Hampshire.
Obama leads 48-45 among men, but enjoys nearly a two to one lead (60-33) among women.
If these numbers hold up, down ballot consequences could, from two two Congressional and gubernatorial races to  State Senate to State Rep races and even county races) could prove disastrous for Republicans.
Remember back to four years ago when a UNH released a poll showing Obama ahead of McCain by more than 20 points in the final week.  It closed somewhat, as I knew it would, but when I saw that poll, I knew it was all over.
Of course, it's not yet the final week, and the 15 point margin is sure to narrow, but this can be viewed only as terrible news for Republicans.
You may recall that, after speaking with a Republican insider last week, I hinted here (not in a lead blog but in a response to a question) that the Romney campaign may be ready to give up on New Hampshire.  The note was picked up by a liberal blogging source.  All I could think of last night when I saw this poll was that insider's tip a week ago.  Even though Paul Ryan was here over the weekend, even though Biden was here and Clinton is coming, it may just be over in New Hampshire.
Republican partisans may choose to pooh-pooh this poll, but for the sake of arguments, let's say it's off by the four point margin of error.  That still leaves Obama with a big lead.
Last week, ARG had him up five points (50-45) in the state and NBC/Marist/Wall Street Journal had him up seen (51-44), so the UNH numbers aren't all that far-fetched.
Some pundits are saying the Romney cannot win without carrying New Hampshire, but fivethirtyeight and Real Clear Politics are both out with numbers today.  Even with Ohio and New Hampshire and Wisconsin, Obama "only" gets to 269.  That's enough for a tie, and presumably Romney would win in the House of Representatives.
But let's be real.  Romney is at 191 electoral votes, and to get up to the 269-269 tie, he'd need to win North Carolina and Missouri (certainly doable; likely in fact), but also not only Florida and Virginia (perhaps that's doable) but also Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada (not likely).
So there is a road to the Presidency for Romney without New Hampshire, do it's indeed a road less taken.
The big concern for New Hampshire Republicans should be down ballot damage.  Last week, I projected a 13-11 Republican edge in the State Senate.  Fortunately, many of the 13 seats are safe, probably safer in fact than two Democratic seats in Manchester (D'Allesandro, Soucy) and one in Nashua (Gilmour), but Republicans have to be concerned about Andy Sanborn in the Bedford area and Nancy Stiles in the Hampton area (District 24).
Not to mention the State House of Reps, already plagued by Bill O'Brien's bullying (some would say fascistic ) tactics.
I'll factor these new numbers into my State House projection of a 202-197 (1 Independent) Republican lead and report back later this week. 
This much is certain.  It won't be pretty for the forces red. (I am, after all, a realist). The two seats the GOP will now take in Belmont may not be enough to hold off a blue tide.  It now appears the unthinkable will in fact happen...Democrats will pick up seats in both Weare and Goffstown.  More to come...

Tuesday
Oct022012

Trivia Time--Quite An Inheritance!

Let's play Jeopardy.
Well, not quite, but let's do at least one trivia question, with enough clues so that most of you should be able to come of with the answer, if only by the process of elimination, by the time we're done.
Which famous American said (at least allegedly), "I inherited only infancy, ignorance, and indigence".
Start the music.
Hint 1--He wasn't a President, albeit not for lack of trying.  That eliminates both Lincoln and the 30-day President, William Henry Harrison who, during the campaign of 1840, made a big deal (not entirely truthfully) about his humble origins.
Hint 2--Although I've been reading a lot on Daniel Webster lately, it isn't Daniel Webster.  In fact this man, while in the same party as Webster, was more often an opponent rather than an ally of Black Dan. 
Hint 3--He wasn't born in New Hampshire, so that will also eliminate Salmon P. Chase.
Hint 4--Although from a slave state and an owner of slaves, he most likely would not have favored secession (he was dead prior to 1860).  That should eliminate South Carolina's John C. Calhoun, moving force behind the Nullification Crisis in the early 1830s.
But you should be getting warmer.
Hint Number 5--Don't compromise your thought process with your answer.
That should do it.  If not...
Hint number 6--Star of the West.
Hint Number 7--You can locate the answer of page 8 of Merrill Peterson's book, "The Great Triumverate", and you shouldn't need to go to the book to get it by now.  Think of the three men of the triumverate; we've already eliminated Webster and Calhoun.   That leaves....
Yes, the answer is Henry Clay, the great compromiser and skilled orator, the 1812 War Hawk and youngest Speaker of the U.S. House,  the Kentucky slave owner who first ran for President in 1824.  He wasn't in the final three in public voting that year.  Thus he didn't make it to the House which decided in favor of John Quincy Adams in what many consider the stolen election over Andrew Jackson (the third place finisher was nearly dead at the time of the election...for extra credit, name him here).  He fact, the election tainted Clay's career because he favored Adams over Jackson and then was appointed Secretary of State...many considered it a dirty bargain...many still do.  Clay lost to Jackson in 1832, lost the Whig nomination to Harrison in a year he could have won (1840); lost to Polk in 1844, and was still running in 1848 when another Whig (Zachary Taylor) beat him.  Poor Clay...in more ways than one.
Ain't history fun.
Yes, I'm reading "The Great Triumverate" now (on loan from the Derry library), not an easy read.

 As I recall, his wife was not what you'd call a pretty woman...nor was Daniel Webster's mother.

Henry Clay (1777-1852) and His Wife Lucretia

There she is...Lucretia.  Thanks Bing!

Monday
Oct012012

How About Binging Judy?

After googling everything for years, I've decided to try binging it. 

Any recommendations?

Is it as good as google?

Better?

I saw the Bing ad on TV and decided to give it a go.

I'll let you know what I discover.

By the way, you'll never guess who was stopped at a traffic light and said Hi to me as I was crossing the street out here by the library in Manchester...Governor Jeanne Shaheen's legal aide Judy Reardon.  I thought she'd be in Washington with the senator, but apparently she's very ill and has been back in Manchester for the past year.  Good luck Judy.  Maybe we should try googling or binging her.

Judy Reardon

Judy Reardon

Hey, it works.  This is fun!  Thanks Bing!