Rep Steve Vaillancourt



Friday
Jun082012

The Week In Polls--June 8--538 Gives Obama 71 Percent Chance Of Winning NH

            Fivethirtyeight.com has become my absolute favorite web site for political developments, especially polling data.  It's a must see on a regular basis (almost daily, in fact).  I've actually registered, under my real name, and post comments there occasionally.  About Wisconsin, I wondered, as a result of Juan Williams comment on Fox News, how many people were voting for Walker but would have voted against him had it been a regular rather than a recall election.  I've seen no polling data on that question.  Have you?

            Now more than ever, political junkies should check out Nate Silver’s analysis on the site because he’s beginning a more in depth look at individual states and national trends this week.

            It will be updated frequently.

            Even as right wing zealots like Sean Hannity appear ready to wet themselves, so giddy over the Wisconsin results are they, 538 has Obama winning 289.5-248.5 electoral votes at the starting gate.  Don’t ask about the metrics that go into this; you either have faith in Silver or you don’t; I do.  In fact, he stresses that this could get closer and notes how several individual state polls tend to favor Obama even as Romney makes progress (albeit still trails by two to three points) in national polls.

            Guru Silver has Obama winning New Hampshire by five points, about half the margin he did four years ago, 52.4-47.6 percent.  The great thing about 538 is that it also gives chances of winning.  Right now, Obama is given a 71 percent chance of winning New Hampshire (29 for Romney).

            These numbers are based on most recent polls, so expect them to change as new polling data arrives.

            Not surprisingly, Silver has Ohio as the closest state.  He has Obama winning 49.3-49.0, but only a 52 percent chance of winning the state.

            Colorado appears to be the next closest with Obama projected to win only 49.8-48.9 (a 55-46 chance).

            Virginia is also close, 50.8-47.9 for Obama (but a 63-38 chance).

            So too is Nevada where Obama leads 50.8-47.9 (66-34 chance of winning it).

            It’s great stuff at 538.  He has Romney rather safely ahead in Florida, Missouri (no surprise to me but apparently it will be to PPP), North Carolina, Arizona, and of course, Indiana.

            He’s got Obama ahead but not all that much in Michigan and Pennsylvania, and—this is a surprise at how close it is—Oregon.

            Even with Republican Scott Walker’s seven point win in the Wisconsin recall, Nate Silver expect Obama to win there 52.7-46.0 (a rather high 82-18 chance of winning, not that Hannity will tell his listeners that).  I would concur with Silver’s contention that if Romney pulls out, Wisconsin, it will be icing on a very well baked cake.  In other words, he’ll have won big in other places; he’ll win going away—not likely to happen.

            The latest nationwide polls also would tend to douse Hannity and Republican enthusiasm this week.  Fox has it tied 43-43.  Gallup has Obama up one, 46-45; Rasmussen has Obama up two, 47-45; and Monmouth/Survey USA has Obama up one, 47-46, not exactly the type of numbers the GOP would like to see in the wake of Wisconsin.

            Fox News also has Obama’s job approval at plus four (49-45) while Rasmussen has it at minus three (48-51) and Gallup at minus one (46-47).

            By the way, as alluded to hear, PPP was left with egg on its face in Wisconsin polling, but it wasn’t the worst polling outfit.  American Research Group has analyzed the polling results.  With Walker winning by seven, Marquette nailed it perfectly.  Angus-Reid (I believe that’s a firm out of Canada), with a six point margin, was second best.   PPP had Democrats doing four points better than the final result, but Lake (although Democratic pollster) actually had a 49-49 tie.

            The moral once again is that you really can’t trust pollsters too closely aligned with one party or the other—certainly with PPP.

            For example, PPP last week had incumbent Missouri Senator Clair McCaskill one point ahead of Steelman.  Rasmussen today has Steelman up double digits, 51-39.  Even if McCaskill is closer than that, PPP is most likely way off, and as I’ve said all along, Democrats can count on losing that seat. 

            However, Rasmussen has Democrat Tim Kaine leading George Allen by two (46-44) in the hotly contested Virginia race; my projection that Allen would win is somewhat shaken, but "wir warden sehen".

            On the silly side, Rasmussen has American approving of the Queen (that would be LizII) 69-15 with 17 expressing no opinion (put me in the 17 percent category—who cares?).

            On the more serious side, Rasmussen finds approval of public employee unions—and this was taken since the Wisconsin vote—at 49-46 positive.

            Gallup weighs in with what could only be termed “Oh Really?” numbers.  Romney leads Obama big among Mormons, 84-13, but Obama leads among Jews 64-29.

            All together now…”Oh, really!”

            If you plan to follow this blog on a regular basis, you need to know the translation is “we will see” for “wir warden sehen”.  It’s one of my favorite German phrases, even more than “Siel Heil”.

Friday
Jun082012

"Liberty Express" To Feature CACR12 Debate

            Having procured a copy of the entire debate on CACR 12, I’ll be using highlights in a special hour-long edition of “The Liberty Express” next week.  Taped Monday, the show airs on Manchestertv23 Monday at 10 p.m., Thursday at 9 p.m., and Sunday at 6 a.m. and again at noon—our Tuesday airing has been removed since the state went to all religious programming that night (for some reason, “The Liberty Express” is not deemed terribly religious).

            That and all prior episodes of the show are or will be available at vimeo.com/channels/libertyx.

            In fact, I’ve got the entire next month’s worth of shows all planned out.  The first half hour is usually devoted to liberty issues from around the world, the country, and the state with the second half hour set aside for travelogue footage.

            This week, I started talking about Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s efforts to ban 32 ounce sodas, and by the time I looked up, ten minutes had passed.  I never order sodas that large, but the matter has come to epitomize the worst in big brother or nanny state government in my Libertarian eyes, so I got a bit carried away.

            Yes, the seven Manchester redistricting serpents make another appearance—they’ll never go away.

            With all the rain and dreary conditions at the time of taking, I decided to go to the bright sunshiny streets of Montreal on Canada Day, July 1, 2001, for the second half hour.  It was during the Jazz Festival when I taped the entire B-52s concert on the Fourth.  There was also a great Arts Festival in La Village.  And as I wondered to the Bell Center to film the many Canadian championship plaques and their retired jerseys, I took great pleasure in filming a championship Bruins jersey in a store window.

            Thus, the "On The Road" segment is fun rather than educational this week.

            Be forewarned, I will not be running many pro side speeches in my hour-long report on CACR12 (you can be sure, not a word of Rep. David Hess’s unending tissue of half truths will make the cut).  I’ll tend to focus on the anti-speeches—hey it is my show after all.  You want to bloviate on the pro side, get your own show—Reps. Manuse, Hoell, myself, and Rep Cohn’s (is that spelling correct?) fantastic final words (just to be fair, I’ll throw in the uninspired words from Majority Leader Peter Principle as well…after all they might well have caused CACR12 to go down to defeat).

            As always, “The Liberty Express” is not for everyone…only those who place a premium on liberty.

            To commemorate the June 20, 1941 German invasion of the Soviet Union, the show taped that week will feature a full half hour of footage I recorded at a museum display in Berlin in 1991.  It was the fiftieth anniversary of the event, and a special display had been set up in the building which actually served as a Gestapo prison during the war (very near where the wall ran, at Gropius Bau).  With me offering commentary (and translations—perhaps even accurate ones) was my Irish friend and Berlinophile Jim.

            It’s a memorable half hour.

            For those overly sensitive, be forewarned.  The words “Sieg Heil” may well appear.

            The final week of the month of June will also be somewhat special.  For the second half hour, I will forego travel and read extensive sections (with appropriate graphics of course) from Dale Carpenter’s sensational new book “Flagrant Conduct:  The Story of Lawrence v. Texas, How a Bedroom Arrest Decriminalized Gay Americans”.

            It’s in honor of the 6-3 Supreme Court decision which was issued June 28, 2003, and seems appropriate now that a gay marriage case may well be headed to the court.  In fact, in his minority opinion in the Lawrence case, Justice Scalia stated that the decision could well lead to gay marriage being accepted.

            He was right!

            I hope to be off to Canada the week of July 1-4, so “The Liberty Express” will serve up a rerun:  a half hour of readings from great speeches in American history (parts of the Declaration of Independence, Ronald Reagan’s “Tear Down This Well” speech, the Gettysburg address, and JFK’s “Ich bin ein Berliner” speech which I re-enacted at the same spot JFK delivered it--Rathaus Schoneberg in West Berlin).  The second half hour will be the best of the B52s concert. 

             By the way, Channel 2 ran a B's concert last Saturday night, taped in their home town of Athens, Ga,  and the camera switches every second or two were not to my liking; of course, in my filming I had only one camera; it wasn't perfect but I actually liked the version of "Planet Clair" from Montreal  better than the one on Channel 2.  I managed to follow Kate Pierson around the stage as she did that haunting intro.  Also, in my filming of "Rock Lobster" a beech ball hit Fred Schneider at just the perfect moment while in Athens, Ga, no contact was made!  Of course, Channel 2 had interviews with the four Bs--I never realized their southern accents were so prounounded, even all these years after leaving Athens for other planets.

            The second week in July will most likely feature what I film the week before.  I’m planning a segment on where Ethan Allen was capture in Montreal and sent off to a horrid British prison boat, and I’m planning to read Jackie Robinson’s biography “I Never Had It Made” and film at the location he played minor league ball for the Montreal Royals.

            Liberty knows no geographic bounds.  Its only tether is the psychological bounds those of a fascist tendency would foist upon us (in German, “Der Mauer Im Kopf”, loosely translated as the wall inside one’s head).

            Long Live Lady Liberty!

            Long Live The Liberty Express!

Erich Schlegel/Dallas Morning News/Corbis

John Lawrence, left, and Tyron Garner recite the Pledge of Allegiance at a Houston rally after the Supreme Court's 2003 (June 28) decision in Lawrence v. Texas that the Texas sodomy law was unconstitutional.

Coming to "The Liberty Express" the last week in June, a look at the case that set gay American free, from the book "Flagrant Conduct" by Dale Carpenter.  Also coming soon to this blog, a review of the five-star book which should be a must read for all those intested in liberty!

Friday
Jun082012

GOP Leader Silva Will Support "Anyone But Romney"

Yes indeed, words have meaning, and in this age of instant media, they tend to linger forever!

Some times, the readers of this blog are just so darn wonderful that it makes all the effort worthwhile.  Here's a response I received to my story about Grade A Bufoon Majority "Leader" Silva yesterday.  I hadn't recalled this, but it's further proof that Rep. Silva apparently never considers the ramifications of what he says before he speaks, not a bad trait for a back bench blogger like me, but certaintly not the trait one would expect in a "leader".  It's more proof (as uf any is needed) that the Peter Principle should have kicked in years ago with this clown. 

So, we have the Majority Leader and the Deputy Speaker (as I recall) jumping on the Perry ship when it seemed like it was about to set sail, but when it ran aground on Gilligan's Island, the two had failed to bail.  Meanwhile, back on the coast the Speaker stuck with the Eft to the bitter end.  And yet, Peter the Unprincipled Silva has the audacity to attack free staters and Libertarians.  Last time I checked, Ron Paul kicked Perry's and The Eft's you know what in NH...making Free Staters and Libertarians far more main stream Republican than the Speaker, his Deputy, and the Unpricipled One.  Here'e the message from "Silence Dogood" (real names are always preferred, but psedonyms are accepted...what ta heck happened to Ernie Gore, by the way?) 

I said all along that while I was among Ron Paul's greatest supporters (I learned there were many like me), I thought we'd end up with Romney and could support him.  I would never have supported either The Eft or The Sanitarium One, and trust me, I would have stuck to it.  Some of us live by our word and by principles, apparently not the Unprincipled One (Peter Principle Silva was such a logical nickname I barely can take credit for it...His Vileness on the other hand was divinely inspired!)

Vielen Dank and here's the posting.

 

Let's not forget ol' Pistol Pete said he'd support "anyone but Romney" for President. I guess that Romney sticker on his car (with Majority WHIP plates as of last week, lest anyone forget how he wound up as Deputy Majority Leader....it wasn't because of the awesome job he was doing as Whip) is just a practical joke from his pals at the Nashua City Committee. Do us a favor and stick to making grilled cheese sandwiches on cable access, Pete. BTW, "Peter Principle" is probably the greatest political nickname since Slick Willy. Pete on Romney: http://en.terra.com/latin-in-america/news/rick_perry_tweets_here_we_come_south_carolina/hof17497
June 7, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterSilence Dogood
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Thursday
Jun072012

Washing "A Grade A Bufoon's" Dirty Laundry In Public

Apparently I was not the only Republican offended by the majority leader's intemperate remarks in the wake of the defeat of CACR 12 yesterday.  My email is ablaze with comments.  As a special bonus (this is after all, NHINSIDER), I share some of them UNEDITED (I'm not even chaging type styles) and without comment here.  To get the best flavor, perhaps you should start and the end and work backwards.  There are some particularly interesting links in the message from Rep. Jon Richardson. Enjoy. (To those who object to being quoted here, you must always remember that I consider anything sent to me open to the entire public.  I don't believe in secrecy in government, not at all).


From: amanuse@gmail.com [amanuse@gmail.com] on behalf of Andrew J. Manuse [andrew@andrewmanuse.com]
Sent: Thursday, June 07, 2012 2:04 PM
To: fleonard@metrocast.net
Cc: Jasper, Shawn; ~Republican House Members
Subject: Re: FW: Majority Leader's WMUR FAIL Interview Today
I concur fully with the comments of Rep. Leonard and sent private e-mail separately to Rep. Jasper that articulates more detail.
Andrew Manuse

On Thu, Jun 7, 2012 at 2:02 PM, Fred Leonard <fred.leonard@leg.state.nh.us> wrote:
one final comment...Rep Jasper, did you consider yourself any less of a Republican when you voted against the repeal of gay marriage?...it's absurd for you to send and email out questioning other Republican's resolve on the lousy language that was in CACR 12 when you yourself have a questionable platform voting record...

I'm not sure how some of you folks in leadership (or formally in leadership) think you can talk to people the way you do...

Fred Leonard

Rochester,NH On 6/7/2012 1:03 PM, Jasper, Shawn wrote:
I thought I had sent this to all Republicans this morning, but I had neglected to actually do so, although I understand that it was posted elsewhere.


From: Jon Richardson [richardsonnh@gmail.com]
Sent: Wednesday, June 06, 2012 10:32 PM
To: ~Republican House Members
Subject: Majority Leader's WMUR FAIL Interview Today
Newly Appointed Majority Leader Pete Silva,
  First, a disclaimer: I'm not a free-stater or a libertarian. I was born in NH and have lived here almost my entire life here. And I voted in favor of CACR 12. Now on to the meat of my message:
  
  After the recent fiasco I thought for sure a lesson had been learned. Maybe those in leadership had learned humility. Or maybe that Silence is Golden. My mother taught me that "If you can't say something nice, don't say anything at all". Reagan had his famous rule that we're not to speak ill of any fellow Republican. 
And then I just saw this WMUR interview: http://www.wmur.com/news/politics/House-rejects-school-funding-amendment-twice/-/9857748/14659522/-/pja1hd/-/index.html.  Here's the quote for those that don't want to watch the whole video: ""I really want people to know the next time they ask who they are voting for who are using our name as Republicans, to make sure that's who they are -- not libertarians, not Free Staters"
You and I have never spoken. Until today I never even heard you speak on the House Floor. I was open to your leadership. I was optimist that as a Christian and as a father you would have the experience needed to elevate the Majority Office and bring unity and honor back. Thanks to that interview, my mind is made up.  You sir are a Grade A, Class One, Top Tier, bloviating BUFFOON. As a fairly young, not yet 30 yrs old member I am BAFFLED by the lack of intelligence that occurs by those that are supposed to be leading us and those that are years older than me. Reps that vote with us 90%+ of the time are not our enemies and should never be called out to the media. Speaker O'Brien was correct in publicly placing his blame on Governor Lynch's lack of pull among the Democrats. You sir, by calling out some of our closest allies have quickly shown that you have no idea what you are doing or how to be a leader.  
If there wasn't likely just one session left I'd tell you to step down as majority leader. I'm worried what you, as our newly minted moronic majority leader, would stupidly spout off to the media next. You being an endorser of Gov. Perry for Prez,(http://petersilva.com/) I want you to know nothing he ever said comes close to ranking as deficient, dense or doltish as what you managed today. But because there's one session left what's the point to asking you to step down? How much more could we be embarrassed by those that are suppose to be our wiser leaders? I don't even want to imagine. (Please no one talk about "plucking them chickens" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ss8LDBNcsWc) At this point I'll just be blunt: Try keeping your mouth shut. Take this as a learning lesson. Obviously you have no clue how to manage the media, members of the house or public perception. 
Lastly, your speeches today sucked. Maybe your pathetic PI on CACR 12 was the reason it failed. In that moment, I definitely missed DJ. His speeches never sucked and were always full of passion, fire, and his speeches brought the smack-down to our opponents. Yours were a mumbling mess of mopey cliché's and vague phrases. Work on that as well, maybe take some lessons from Rep. Cohn, his PI's clearly took yours to the woodshed for a good spanking.

-- Rep. Jon Richardson
Merrimack 8, Allenstown
www.richardsonnh.com
Thursday
Jun072012

Thumbs Down To Hikel; Thumbs Up to Debi Warner

Things were happening so fast yesterday (and I still had the Supreme Court hearing on redistricting on my mind) that I failed to provide as thorough an analysis on the CACR 12 voting as I should have.  Thankfully, a colleague (and a true friend) from Hopkinton has come through with some enlightenment.  I deserve a special slap up side the had for praising Rep. Hikel on his "yes" vote and failing to note that he changed to a "no" the second time around.  I guess I need to retract any good things I said about him and disinvited him from The Liberty Express. 
 
Changing a vote is an even more cowardly act than getting it wrong both times.  Many thanks to the gnadige Frau from Hopkinton for providing this data.  Thumbs down to Burt as well as Hikel.  I think I'd noted Mirski (permanent thumbs down to him) and Ingbretson.  Comerford and Kingsbury have become non-people in my domain so I wasn't looking for them, except to note that Timmy usually follows Itse, and I noted how he voted no twice after speaking (or so it seemed) on the yes side.  I did note Bolster; he told me last week he was a yes.  I can only assume he tired of leadership games.  I missed Gargasz as a switch because in my mind I had figured she was a no all along (she was a no on CACR12 last year).
 
(FYI--Gesund is the German word for health).
 
The Ramsey case merits further explanation.  He was the only Democrat to vote no either time, but I learned from Manchester Mayor Ted Gatsas today that he had spoken with as many as five Manchester Democrats and thought he had convinced them to vote YES (I assume three would be the Democratic Aldermen Shaw, Katsiantonis, and Long since they were with the Mayor Tuesday night).  Once again, Manchester Reps prove that they can't be trusted, even after they've given their word, in this case Manchester Democrats (in the case of redistricting, it was the treachery of seven Republicans--Infantine, Ball, Pepino, Cail, Gonzalez, Soucy, and Terrio; they all, by the way, voted against the best interests of Manchester again yesterday, all except Ball who was absent...sounds like fodder for next Monday's Liberty Express).
 
As an aside, I just ran into a woman who truly deserves the title of gracious lady (that's the gnadige frau translation) from Littleton.  She's Debi Warner, a Republican who was filing for the District 1 (Gallus) Senate seat.  I had rated this seat as leaning Democratic but with the departure of Rep. Robert Theberge from the race and with the entry of one magnificent woman--everyone will instantly fall in love with Debi Warner--I might have to change back to Republican favored in the great north county.
 
This is great analysis from Rep. Hamm.  Was there a computer program which produce this?  If not, much work must have been involved.  Feel free to use it, Media.
 
Hi Steve,

I count on you to double check these numbers but this is what I came up with yesterday.  Note Hikel's change of heart which you didn't mention in your blog. 
Gesund Heit! from Gnadige Frau Hamm

Vote changes on CACR12 between 12:47 p.m. and 1:22 p.m.:
Nays to Yeas, 6--Mirski, Ingbretson, Burt, Hikel, Comerford, Kingsbury
Yeas to Nays, 3--Bolster, Gargasz, Ramsey (D)
Yeas to Not Voting, 3--Accornero, Herb Richardson, Joseph Thomas
Yeas remained at 224; Nays went from 144 to 141; Not Voting rose from 26 to 29