Fivethirtyeight.com has become my absolute favorite web site for political developments, especially polling data. It's a must see on a regular basis (almost daily, in fact). I've actually registered, under my real name, and post comments there occasionally. About Wisconsin, I wondered, as a result of Juan Williams comment on Fox News, how many people were voting for Walker but would have voted against him had it been a regular rather than a recall election. I've seen no polling data on that question. Have you?
Now more than ever, political junkies should check out Nate Silver’s analysis on the site because he’s beginning a more in depth look at individual states and national trends this week.
It will be updated frequently.
Even as right wing zealots like Sean Hannity appear ready to wet themselves, so giddy over the Wisconsin results are they, 538 has Obama winning 289.5-248.5 electoral votes at the starting gate. Don’t ask about the metrics that go into this; you either have faith in Silver or you don’t; I do. In fact, he stresses that this could get closer and notes how several individual state polls tend to favor Obama even as Romney makes progress (albeit still trails by two to three points) in national polls.
Guru Silver has Obama winning New Hampshire by five points, about half the margin he did four years ago, 52.4-47.6 percent. The great thing about 538 is that it also gives chances of winning. Right now, Obama is given a 71 percent chance of winning New Hampshire (29 for Romney).
These numbers are based on most recent polls, so expect them to change as new polling data arrives.
Not surprisingly, Silver has Ohio as the closest state. He has Obama winning 49.3-49.0, but only a 52 percent chance of winning the state.
Colorado appears to be the next closest with Obama projected to win only 49.8-48.9 (a 55-46 chance).
Virginia is also close, 50.8-47.9 for Obama (but a 63-38 chance).
So too is Nevada where Obama leads 50.8-47.9 (66-34 chance of winning it).
It’s great stuff at 538. He has Romney rather safely ahead in Florida, Missouri (no surprise to me but apparently it will be to PPP), North Carolina, Arizona, and of course, Indiana.
He’s got Obama ahead but not all that much in Michigan and Pennsylvania, and—this is a surprise at how close it is—Oregon.
Even with Republican Scott Walker’s seven point win in the Wisconsin recall, Nate Silver expect Obama to win there 52.7-46.0 (a rather high 82-18 chance of winning, not that Hannity will tell his listeners that). I would concur with Silver’s contention that if Romney pulls out, Wisconsin, it will be icing on a very well baked cake. In other words, he’ll have won big in other places; he’ll win going away—not likely to happen.
The latest nationwide polls also would tend to douse Hannity and Republican enthusiasm this week. Fox has it tied 43-43. Gallup has Obama up one, 46-45; Rasmussen has Obama up two, 47-45; and Monmouth/Survey USA has Obama up one, 47-46, not exactly the type of numbers the GOP would like to see in the wake of Wisconsin.
Fox News also has Obama’s job approval at plus four (49-45) while Rasmussen has it at minus three (48-51) and Gallup at minus one (46-47).
By the way, as alluded to hear, PPP was left with egg on its face in Wisconsin polling, but it wasn’t the worst polling outfit. American Research Group has analyzed the polling results. With Walker winning by seven, Marquette nailed it perfectly. Angus-Reid (I believe that’s a firm out of Canada), with a six point margin, was second best. PPP had Democrats doing four points better than the final result, but Lake (although Democratic pollster) actually had a 49-49 tie.
The moral once again is that you really can’t trust pollsters too closely aligned with one party or the other—certainly with PPP.
For example, PPP last week had incumbent Missouri Senator Clair McCaskill one point ahead of Steelman. Rasmussen today has Steelman up double digits, 51-39. Even if McCaskill is closer than that, PPP is most likely way off, and as I’ve said all along, Democrats can count on losing that seat.
However, Rasmussen has Democrat Tim Kaine leading George Allen by two (46-44) in the hotly contested Virginia race; my projection that Allen would win is somewhat shaken, but "wir warden sehen".
On the silly side, Rasmussen has American approving of the Queen (that would be LizII) 69-15 with 17 expressing no opinion (put me in the 17 percent category—who cares?).
On the more serious side, Rasmussen finds approval of public employee unions—and this was taken since the Wisconsin vote—at 49-46 positive.
Gallup weighs in with what could only be termed “Oh Really?” numbers. Romney leads Obama big among Mormons, 84-13, but Obama leads among Jews 64-29.
All together now…”Oh, really!”
If you plan to follow this blog on a regular basis, you need to know the translation is “we will see” for “wir warden sehen”. It’s one of my favorite German phrases, even more than “Siel Heil”.