Rep Steve Vaillancourt
Since my predictions for the 2012 New Hampshire House make-up depends so much on delegations from the state’s 13 cities, I’ve put this chart together of how the cities have flipped and flopped (and will likely flip again) recently. As always for the sake of consistency, Republicans and always listed first; in other words 4-2 would mean 4 Republicans, 2 Democrats. 2012 numbers don’t add up to 134 due to loss of seats due to redistricting. (The two Manchester/Litchfield seats are not counted here; the seats Portsmouth, Concord, Dover, and Franklin must share with towns ARE counted here).
City 2008 2010 2012 Projection
Berlin 0-4 1-3 0-3
Claremont 1-4 3-1 2-2
Concord 0-13 1-12 0-13
Dover 0-9 2-7 1-8
Franklin 2-1 0-3 2-1
Keene 0-7 0-7 0-7
Laconia 2-3 5-0 3-2
Lebanon 0-4 0-4 0-4
Manchester 7-28 21-14 6-25
Nashua 5-23 22-6 7-20
Portsmouth 0-7 0-7 0-7
Rochester 3-6 7-2 3-6
Somersworth 0-5 2-3 0-5
Total 20-114 67-67 24-103
This time especially I don't at all mind being scooped. Apparenlty, the NH Journal (whatever that is) had the story on Mrs. (To Be) DJ's pregnancy before I did. Maybe this is where former Governor Steve Merrill read it before he began spreading the rumor. Thanks to a reader who sent me this source. If you can't trust me, you certainly an trust the NH Journal (I repeat...whatever that is). Of course, the Journal should have added the most important clause, one I used at least twice, "Not that there's anything wrong with that!" It's reassuring to know that even while his mind and sense of morality had failed him, DJ's body was functioning just fine, thank you. We all trust that some "pedophile pimp" will take his confession...do Catholics still have confession?
As I noted earlier, I'm far more troubled by the series of lies D.J. told on the House floor than the lies in his personal life. Is there a parallel here to Elizabeth Warren, part Chrokee Indian (?) and Democratic candidate for Senate in Massachusetts? The word "pathological" would seem to apply to both. Don't be surprised if the Indian wannabe suffers the same fate as D.J. In fact, I'll predict it here...Liz won't survive till November.
Nashua Represenative David Campbell has become the first Democrat to enter the race for Speaker for the next session of the New Hampshire House.
He joins lame duck incumbent Republican Bill O'Brien, and Exeter Republican Lee Quandt has suggested he might run as well.
Republicans Gene Chandler (former Speaker) and Lynn Uber Ober had sent out feelers about running, but both went on record--rather stupidly in my humble opinion--as saying they would not run if O'Brien survives his November race in the Mt. Vernon/New Boston area.
Most certainly, former Democrat Speaker Terie Norelli will run again.
If Democrats take control of the House, the Democratic caucus will most likely decide whether Campbell or Norelli (or some other Democrat) will be the next Speaker.
If Republicans maintain control by a slim margin, the Republican caucus could be meaningless as it was in 2004 when Republican Doug Scamman most assuredly received minimal GOP support (the vote is by secret ballot) but nearly unanimous Democratic support to defeat the late Mike Whalley.
In a close situation, enough Republicans would certainly join Democrats to deny the Speakership to O'Brien, but if Republicans have a slight edge, it would be difficult (although not impossible) to elect a Democrat. In that case, Quandt would most assuredly have a leg up on the wavering Chandler and Ober.
Of course, other candidates could well enter the field. Might it not, perhaps, be refreshing to have a Speaker dedicated to what is in the best interest of the House and the people of New Hampshire rather than to either party? Might it not be a good thing to elect a Speaker who would appoint the best and the brightest, whether Democrats or Republicans, as committee chairs? To elect a Speaker who would scrupulously apply the rules equally to all people?
Someone wake me up.
I was dreaming there for a while.
Campbell apparently sent an email only to Democrats; I did not receive it (or I would post it in its entirety here), but as always, I do have my sources.
Welcome aboard, Rep. Campbell...to quote the late great talk master Jerry Williams...he's not a bad guy. Plus he knows his baseball, and this after all, at least in this blog and on The Liberty Express, is "the summer of baseball". I'm reading the story of the 1912 pennant and the building of Fenway Park now. My guess is that Speaker Campbell has already read it.
It's actually one of my least favorite baseball books...so far...but hopefully it'll get better. It's very long.
CACR 12 drafters have taken away justification for my favorite new greeting.
Is nothing sacred?
“You’re looking mighty wholesome today,” I had been greeting people for the past several weeks, risking the reaction that some would deem it sexual harassment when in fact it was merely a way of denigrating the “wholesome” in the education funding amendment which the House and Senate will be voting on next week.
“Wholesome” is gone, but the problems remain.
From reading the headlines in the papers today, one might think this is a done deal. Governor Lynch is on board; Republican leaders in both Houses are on board; well, let’s just say we’ve done the job and go home; send this sucker on to the voters.
But not so fast.
While getting 15 votes in the Senate (60 percent of 24) may be a mere formality, 237 votes are still needed in the House (60 percent of the current membership of 395).
Even with Lynch’s support, I haven’t noticed a groundswell of supports from Democrats, but don’t take my word for it; check comments on the blues web sit. Kathy Sullivan, whom I seem to be agreeing with more and more these days—say it ain’t so, Joe—says that this current legislature is a good reason to vote against the amendment.
Not a single Manchester Represenative, having witnessed this current legislature take $15 million of money promised for Manchester schools just last year, should vote for this amendment. However, as we learned with the redistricting betrayal, Manchester Republicans too often put the dictates of their tyrannical leadership ahead of what is best for their community, so we can probably expect the Manchester lemmings to guarantee their extinction by voting for this disaster. More Manchester teachers will be laid off, maybe not this year but in coming years, if this passes, and voters should hold anyone who votes for it to blame.
Will Mayor Ted Gatsas take a stand? Does it really matter?
Since Manchester Republicans stabbed him in the back on redistricting and followed their leader (Hail, Victory), we can only assume they will do so again. Ironically, the redistricting court cases are scheduled to be heard at about the same time as the CACR vote.
Little has really changed since I wrote a couple weeks that it will all come down to the number of Representatives who are absent. Remember that each absence is tantamount to a no vote, and since Republicans can afford to lose only 55 or so votes (assuming most Democrats vote no), they need get fannies in the seats when the vote is taken.
There’s no guarantee that will happen. Peter Principle Silva, the new Republican leader, spent much of the day trying to explain silly comments he made yesterday. Peter is no DJ, and about the only thing that can save him and O’Brien now is a sympathy backlash. Expect them to appeal to the memory of DJ, demagoging about the need to hang together now that DJ is gone…kind of like the Gipper…”Win one for the Deej!”
If that inane appeal succeeds and this sucker gets to 237 (despite opposition from Libertarian-minded Reps), then Republicans deserve the fate they’ll suffer in November.
DJ has resigned; he would have voted yes. Norman Tregenza has resigned; he would have voted no. Score one loss for each side.
Kevin Landrigan had the odds at 50-50 in last week’s Sunday Telegraph. Gary Rayno in the Union Leader seemed less sanguine about passage. I’ll stick with my odds of 40-60 against getting to 237, but it all depends on turnout. If more than 20 Republicans are absent when it comes time to vote, it’s in big trouble.
Of course, it doesn’t matter if Democrats are absent or not because remember…an absence is the same as a no vote.
Expect the Union Leader and Republican gray beards to weight in in full force. Must we hear from Chuck Douglas again? And Ovide—god forbid? Probably even Papa John? Maybe even Steve Merrill if he’s not too busy talking about rumored pregnancies?
Take your phone off the hooks, my fellow Reps; don’t answer your mail; shut off the computers. Wednesday can’t come and go soon enough, but like all bad things, this to