Were it not for Rasmussen’s generic congressional ballot which shows Republicans back ahead (albeit by only two points, 43-41), all the news would be good for Democrats this week.
Take New Hampshire for example. The UNH/WMUR poll has Obama beating Romney by 10 (50-40) just a couple months after Romney appeared to hold a convincing lead here. But you want even worse news than that. Should Republicans somehow move completely off their rocker and nominate The Eft, expect Obama to win by 25 points here, 60-35. Obama also leads Santorum by 21 points (56-35). Only Ron Paul holds the anointed one to a single digit lead (50-42) in our state, and odds of Dr. Paul getting the nomination seem to be slim indeed.
Yes, I am a Ron Paul supporter, but I’m also a realist. After Florida and Nevada, Romney has moved back into clear front runner status, and the battle appears to be for second place. Romney is up 15 points in today’s Gallup tracking poll. It’s Romney 37, Eft 22, Santorum 16, and Dr. Paul 11.
Indications are that Santorum could actually win both Minnesota and Missouri today while Romney wins Colorado, so the Eft may be buried once and for all when the cock crows tomorrow morning.
This will be a real test for the veracity of PPP (the Democratic pollster). It has Santorum up 33-24 over Romney in Minnesota (with Eft and 22 and Dr. Paul at 20) and 45-32 over Romney in Missouri with Dr. Paul at 19 (Eft missed the deadline there as he did in his home state of Virginia).
PPP has Romney up 10 over Santorum in Colorado (37-27) with Eft at 21 and Dr. Paul 13.
All three states are not very heavily polled. In fact at fivethirtyeighty.com, Nate Silver is already focusing on Arizona and Michigan which he expects Romney to win fairly handily.
But back to the bad news for Republicans. For the first time in more than six months, Obama has moved into positive territory in the Real Clear Politics average. It was plus two yesterday and is down to plus 1.8 today (48.8-47.0). Although Obama has slipped into the negative side with Gallup (46-48), he’s up 51-48 with Rasmussen, 50-46 with ABC/Washington Post, and his lead seems to widening against Romney, the likely GOP nominee.
Rasmussen has Obama ahead of Romney by 6 (48-42), and he actually hits the magic 50 percent number with ABC (51-45 over Romney).
This could all be just a temporary blip due to better than expected employment numbers last Friday, but there is actually talk in the blogosphere that Republicans could lose control of Congress. Democrats would probably need a four point lead going into the election, and it’s still only two points in the RCP average (44.3-42.3), but the sense of optimism is certainly leaving the GOP.
Here’s another reason why. While most Republicans (except Ron Paul of course) seem to want the U.S. to continue to play the role of policeman of the world, Rasmussen finds that a whopping 67 percent of Americans favor the President’s proposal to have troops out of Afghanistan by the end of next year.
While Republicans led by David Bates in New Hampshire continue to be doubling down their opposition to gay marriage, most—if not all-- polls (including those conducted by Republican pollsters) show that more than 60 percent of New Hampshire residents believe the issue is settled, and the Legislature should move on to other business. If Bates and Company get their way, we may see the impossible happen—Republicans could actually lose more than 100 seats to lose control of the NH House.
Any numbers from Andy Smith on that front would be most appreciated, but Speaker Bill O’Brien’s Republican Party seems totally capable of self-destructing at this point.
It is after all the same leadership team which sent a Vice Chairman to the House floor last week with the message—I don’t know anything about this bill but vote for it anyway.
Sad but true. You just can't make this stuff up.
But I digress…that’s another blog completely.
Gallup is out with a bit of good news for Republicans in what it refers to as its “State of the States” series.
According to self-described identification (as opposed to actual registration), no less than 30 states were solidly Democratic in 2008 and another six states leaned Democratic with 10 states considered competitive and Republicans solidly ahead in only four states and one other leading Republican.
Today, 15 states are deemed competitive (including New Hampshire). Democrats enjoy at solid lead in only 12 states and a slight advantage in seven while Republicans now have a solid lead in no less than 10 states, and seven more states lean Republican.
That’s an astounding turnaround in four years.
Gallup has Republicans with a 3.6 percent advantage in New Hampshire, 44.2-40.6 percent.
The closest states where Republicans also lead are Georgia 3.4, Colorado 3.0, Missouri 2.3, Virginia 0.9, and Arkansas 0.2. Close states in which Democrats lead are North Carolina 0.9, Ohio 1.3, Nevada 1.7, Florida 1.8, Iowa 3.9, and Oregon 4.0.
Gallup also finds an overwhelming trend toward self-identified conservatism. Only one state (guess which one) has liberals in the lead and by only 1.3 points.
Yes, that would be Massachusetts—no wonder George Will was rooting against the Patriots.
New Hampshire is only the 36th most conservative state, but with a 12.3 percent margin, we’re the leader in the entire Northeast—36.7 percent conservatives, 34.9 percent moderates, and only 24.4 percent liberals.
Here are the top ten most conservative –Mississippi (+42.5%), Utah, Wyoming, Alabama, Louisiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Idaho, and Tennessee.
Caveat—don’t read too much into these numbers. For the entire listing, check out gallup.com.
Rasmussen finds 59 percent of Americans believe elections are “rigged” to help incumbents and 48 percent believe the U.S. should aid Israel if it attacks Iran.