Rep Steve Vaillancourt



Wednesday
Oct172012

The Week In Polls--Oct. 17--Gallup Has Romney Up Six!

            Talk about a conundrum. The same CNN poll which had Obama winning Tuesday night’s debate 46-39 also had Romney winning most internal numbers and some by a rather wide margin.

            Romney led 58-40 on ability to handle the economy, 49-46 on health care, 51-4 on taxes, and 49-46 on who would be the stronger leader.

            So how do you get to the seven point lead for Obama overall?  All I can figure is that Obama didn’t beat Romney by seven, but he beat the Romney from two weeks ago.  In other words, while the Demagogue in Chief won the expectations game, he lost in other areas that count.

            In fact, there was a 25-25 tie on the question of whom the debate would make you more likely to vote for.

            Go figure.

            Meanwhile Gallup is out with the worse news yet for Obama.  He’s down six points (51-45) in today’s tracking poll; he was down four yesterday.  This tends to verify polls earlier this week which showed Romney pulling virtually even with the women’s vote after being down double digits prior to last week’s debate in which the Delaware Dolt, as noted here, came across as a boorish buffoon, not at all the type of man women have confidence in.

            The Real Clear Politics average (prior to the Gallup result) had Romney up 47.4-47.1, and even the liberal Huffington Post average had Romney pulling ahead 47.1-46.9.  If only we could get another debate from appearance from the Smirking Dolt, team Romney would probably wrap this thing up.

            Just kidding.

Fivethirtyeight.com continues to have Obama likely to win the presidency although his odds are down to 65-35 today (they peaked at 85 percent a few weeks ago), and there are indications that Nate Silver is cherry picking which data he wants to use, sad but true since I’ve been a Silver defender until now.

Anyone wanna place a bet on exactly when 538 tips it in Romney’s favor?

            538 now has Obama winning by 1.2 points (50.1-48.9) and winning the electoral votes 287-251.  However, it has moved not only North Carolina and Florida into the Romney column, but Virginia and Colorado as well.

            No wonder Team Obama seems to be focusing on New Hampshire, Iowa, Ohio, and Nevada today.

            Rasmussen has Obama up one (50-49) in New Hampshire today, but Suffolk/Channel 7 had it dead even at 47-47 yesterday, and as reported her last week, ARG has Romney up 50-46.   However, at 538, Silver, in giving Obama a two to one chance to win our small state, continues to use not only the UNH poll which has Obama up 6 but the one from the previous week which had him up 15.  Even Andy Smith admitted that the only about half of the six-point poll was taken after the first debate which changed anything, so Romney could very well be ahead here now.  Smith says he’s not going to release another poll until the week prior to the election. 

            Nate Silver needs to get his data updated or he will lose credibility from this corner.

            For governor, it’s a 2-2 tie.  Suffolk has Maggie up three points over Ovide (41-38) and Rasmussen has her up two (48-46), but ARG has Ovide up six (46-40) and UNH has him up four (39-35). Average them out, and Ovide is up a point or so.

            UNH (or should I say WMUR/Granite State poll) nearly inexplicably had Frank Guinta moving from ten down to ten up (45-35) in the first c.d. while Kuster leads Bass by thee (38-35) in the second c.d. with one in four still undecided.

            In Connecticut, Obama is up 16 (53-38) from Siena, important because Republican Senate candidate Linda (wife of Vince) McMahon is down only two (46-44) for the Senate.

            Quinnipiac actually has Romney within four (50-46) in Pennsylvania; Dick Morris (not one of my favorite pundits) has said all along that Romney would win there enroute to a substantial victory nationwide.  In an unreal development, Democratic Senator Casey is only up three points (48-45) there and Morning Call has him up only two (41-39), and no one had that on the radar screen as a potential GOP gain.  However, in a bit of good news for Democrats, Rasmussen has incumbent Senator John Tester back even at 48-48 with Dennie Rehberg; that would be an upset.

            Also good news for Democrats is Rasmussen’s latest generic Congressional ballot which shows Republicans trailing again this week, albeit only 43-42.

Rasmussen has Obama up only 15 points (57-42) in Massachusetts.  Remember, I’ve opined that anything less than a 20 point Romney win would not be enough for Elizabeth Warren to unseat Scott Brown in the Senate.

Isn’t this fun?

Wednesday
Oct172012

The Debate Winner...I Can't Say

For the second Presidential debate this season, I have a lot to say, but I can't say it here.

I've written another review for the New Hampshire Herald, the free paper which will be out in supermarkets in the Manchester/Concord area this Friday, so I deem it only fair that I not go into details here.

I've also written an overall assessment of the New Hampshire races as they stand 20 days out.

So, extra, extra, read all about it in the Herald.

I suppose I could post my obervations of the first debate here now...since that's ancient history.  Sure...here it is...

    Seldom are Presidential debate outcomes as one-sided as Romney v. Obama Round One.  Usually, it's like a soccer game.  After two hours of watching 22 men kick a ball around in a less than scintillating manner, we look up at the scoreboard and discover a nil-nil tie.
    The first debate was anything but a tie.  Romney's dominance was so complete that even veteran spinmeisters and their fellow travelers in the main stream media were left in stunned disbelief.
    If you're Barack Obama, you know you're not having a good night when your million dollar contributor, the ever unpopular left wing hack Bill Maher is left complaining that maybe you really do need a Teleprompter, when that thrill no longer goes up and down Chris Matthew's leg on MSNBC.
    It wasn't just Fox News which declared Romney the big winner.  Numbers proved his mastery over the Demagogue in Chief.  In a CBS snap poll, more than two to one previously undecided voters (46-22) gave the edge to Romney.  He won 67-25 (an unheard of number) with CNN, and in heavily Democratic Massachusetts, Romney was ahead 71-29 in a morning after poll on WBZ radio.
    Sports analogies abound when it comes to Presidential debates.  So let the games begin.
    Obama had slipped into the ever dreaded prevent defense.  He was like Dean Smith's four corner offense in the days prior to the 30 second clock in college basketball, trying to run out the clock. 
    He tried to skate around the issues for 90 minutes.  Listless and annoyed were the kindest words even his Democratic supporters could think of to describe a total inability to handle Mitt Romney's constant badgering him with facts.
    Yes, facts won out, and Romney hammered them home time and again.  No one watching, for example, is likely to forget the specific figure of $716 billion, the number Obamacare will take from Medicare, or $90 billion (enough to have hired two million teachers!), the amount the Obama administration has squandered on its own version of corporate welfare to failed green energy companies (and Democratic contributors).
    True, there was no knock out punch.  The closest we came to a gotcha moment was when  Romney, in response to Obama's continuing attempts to misstate facts, referred to how with five boys, Romney familiar with how people will say something that is not true and keep repeating it, hoping you'll believe it.
    In other words, Romney was calling Obama a liar, but he did it in such a nice way that the point sunk home without Romney coming across as mean-spirited.
    In fact, Mitt Romney did just what he had to do.  While piling up points with those tricky little things called facts, Romney came across as genuinely likable.
    Trailing by an average of three points in national poll averages, Romney, according to some pundits, need a home run.
    In fact, he got something better than that.  When you come to bat trailing in baseball, you don't need to swing for the fences with nobody on base.  You need some solid base hits to set the table.
    That's just what Romney got, solid hits, leading to many runs with the bases left loaded for round two (pardon the mixed metaphor).
    Obama actually spent more time talking.  At one point, he criticized moderator Jim Lehrer for cutting him off five seconds early and then went on for another seemingly endless 30 seconds, but even as he tried to summon up everyone from his dearly departed grandmother to Abraham Lincoln, Obama appeared clueless, a rambling out of touch pampered leader who, as Romney pointed out, has a right to his own house and his own plane, but not his own set of facts.
    Perhaps most remarkably, Romney appealed to both the Republican base (his defense of American capitalism and exceptionalism was nothing short of brilliant), but those voters who remain undecided as well.
    His best moment was when he referred to the founders and their quest for life and liberty and the pursuit of happiness, concepts which will never become outdated, not when defined with such zest as a reinvigorated Mitt Romney.
    If any debate can move the polling numbers, the first in this series was it.
    The last thing Romney can do, however, is rest on his laurels.  He would best remember Walter Mondale who, after clobbering incumbent Ronald Reagan in the first 1984 debate, went on to lose the second round and then to lose 49 states.
    In the words of pundit Pat Buchanan, who like Romney has come back  to life (he was fired earlier this year by MSNBC for telling the truth in his most recent book), "Romney couldn't have done a better job.  He won 13 of 15 rounds."
    Ah yes, yet another sports analogy, but what about golf?  Certainly Obama blew his big lead just as surely as the U.S. Ryder Cup team last weekend.  Another performance like in the first debate and Obama will have lots of free time for golf, a pursuit he clearly enjoys much more than debating...and governing.

 

Wednesday
Oct172012

This Week's Trivia--Eli's Coming

Between going door to door in Ward 8 and watching debates, I hardly have time for reading these days, but I have a series of trivia questions in the pipeline.

Try this one.

Which or these 19th century statesmen graduated not from Dartmouth or Harvard but rather from Yale?

A--New Hampshire's own Daniel Webster

B--New Hampshire's own Franklin Pierce

C--New Hampshire's own Salmon Chase

D--South Carolina's John C. Calhoun

E--Kentucky's Henry Clay.

 

Once again, I get the answer from Merrill Peterson's book The Great Triumvirate...no, it's not Henry Clay this week.  He didn't go to college at all.  Webster and Chase went to Dartmouth, Pierce to Bowdoin (he was a classmate of Nathaniel Hawthonre).  I was surpised by the answer.  John C. Calhoun traveled north to go to Yale. 

Friday
Oct122012

ARG Has Romney Up 4; Ovide Up 6

Friday, October 12, 2012 at 07:32PM
  modify remove organize post follow up  
American Research Group (ARG), the Manchester-based polling company, is out with numbers today which can only lift the spirits of New Hampshire Republicans who last week witnessed Andy Smith's UNH poll (WMUR/Granite State Poll) which showed Obama up 15 points in the state.
Fresh off Rasmussen showing a 48-48 tie here, ARG is out today with a poll showing Mitt Romney up 50-46 and Republican gubernatorial candidate Ovide LaMontagne up six points (46-40) over Democrat Maggie Hassan.
ARG also has Romney ahead in all its swing state polls--49-46 in Florida, 50-46 in Colorado, 50-46 in North Carolina, and even up one in Ohio (48-47).  ARG has Obama's favorables at even, 48-48, less than the RCP average of +1.4.
I haven't seen any numbers for the two Congressional districts.
Nationwide, there's more good news for Republicans.  Real Clear Politics has moved not only New Hampshire but Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan from the Romney column to toss-up decreasing Obama's electoral lead to 201-181 (and that doesn't even give Romney North Carolina where he has pulled way ahead).
Romney has also pulled ahead, albeit by a close margin, in Colorado and appears to be widening his Florida lead.
Overall, RCP Friday has it 47.3-46.3 for Romney.  He's up two with Gallup (49-47), one with Rasmussen (48-47) and IBD has a 46-46 tie in daily tracking polls.
Even the left-leaning Huffington Pollster now has Obama below 270 (it's 257-206) with Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Nevada, and Colorado as toss-ups but New Hampshire still in the Obama column (albeit light blue).  Romney has also edged ahead in the pollster average, 47.0-46.8.
As noted here previously, the longer Romney stays ahead in national polls, the more you can expect to see swing state numbers trending his way.
 Unlike my Biden postings, consider this strictly numerical reportage.  Just the facts, Maam, just the facts; no matter where they fall.
Friday
Oct122012

Boorish Biden Bothers And Bewilders Bipartisans

Stop the campaign!
Democrats, if you care for one of your brethren in distress, you need to organize an intervention.
Vice President Joe Biden, aka the Delaware Dolt, has been diagnosed with a rare and perhaps fatal disease.  He needs to be rushed immediately to the nearest chapter of Smirkaholics Anonymous.  We can only hope it's not too late to save him.
Remove tongue from cheek and proceed.
Truth in Blogging Alert--Since he embarrassed himself in his 1988 Presidential run by stealing the life story of British Labor politician Neil Kinnick, Joe Biden has proven himself to be one of the most loathsome creatures--if not the worst--on the U.S. political scene.  I actually liked Barack Obama four years ago...until he chose the Delaware Dolt as his running mate, and that opened my eyes to his true colors.
Never in the history of Presidential or Vice Presidential debates has any one man proved to be so loathsome and malicious as Joe Biden last night.
As predicted here yesterday, the Lame Stream Media went out of its way to declare him the winner even as polls showed mixed results.  A CNN poll, for example, had Paul Ryan winning 48-44 and ahead in every conceivable category.  By a 60-57 margin, Ryan was deemed more qualified to become President, a telling margin indeed considering he was facing he sitting Vice President.
By a 53-43 margin, Ryan was deemed more likable.  (Yes, it's true, other polls showed mixed results).
My guess is that the numbers against Biden will only widen today and this weekend as the media (those not totally in the tank for Obama that is) shows more and more clips of Biden's boorish, petulant, juvenile, rude, smirky, contemptuous, and downright despicable behavior.
Do you get the impression I loathe this common (in more ways than one) Joe.
He's a disgrace to the office of Vice President, to team Obama, and to the entire political establishment.
I say this as a Republican who actually agrees more with Barack Obama's foreign policy and position on women's rights than with Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan.  Hey, I'm a Ron Paul Republican.  Not only should we be out of Afghanistan by the end of 2014 but we should bring our troops home from around the world right now.  As I've noted here before, American foreign policy began engendering a hatred for us around the world starting when Dwight Eisenhower, in his worst move ever, sent Kermit Roosevelt to Iraq to overthrow the duly elected government of Mohammad Mosaddegh (trust me on the spelling here), all because Churchill talked him into defending British Petroleum oil interests.
But, as usual, I digress...Try reading All The Shah's Men and your blood most likely will begin to boil.
But back to Biden.  The fact that he's right on foreign policy was lost in the barrage of his constant smiling and smirking, of interrupting Paul Ryan, of claiming that he wasn't being give enough time when in fact, he had--according to those who should know--about 90 seconds more time than Ryan to spread his socialist message.
Not only that, but the Delaware Dolt made at least four errors which are sure to come back to haunt team Obama in coming days.
Democrats were quick to call Mitt Romney a liar when he was in fact speaking the truth in the first debate
Last night, Biden out and out lied.
Lie number one--Biden looked at Paul Ryan and blamed him for running up the deficit by signing on to two wars which Biden claimed he opposed.  Fact check--Biden supported the wars.  Just how stupid does the Delaware Dolt think we are to actually believe he could get away with that whopper?!
Lie number two--Biden claimed that the administration wasn't aware of calls for increased security in Libya prior to the attack that left four Americans dead.  As we're learning in Congressional hearings now (despite much of the Lame Stream Media trying to cover up the story), the State Department certainly did know.  In fact, had the President been attending his daily intelligence briefings (rather than shooting another 18 holes or hobnobbing with Hollywood contributors), he would have known, and four lives could have been saved.
Lie number three deals with the Obamacare raid on Medicaid--you'll hear more about that in coming days.
Oh yes, lie number four is perhaps the biggest at all.  Ryan claimed--and rightly so--that revenues can actually be increased even as taxes are lowered.  Biden actually interrupted him three times to say--erroneously--that it simply could not be done.  Wrong!  It's been done three times in the past 50 years, by Democrat John F. Kennedy and Republicans Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush.
Not only is the Delaware Dolt a disgrace, but he's tangle of lies.
Pundits, who claimed that Democrats were energized by the buffoon's reckless performance last night, better beware.  Polls among independents, women especially, are likely to show he did far more harm than good.
Biden, whose demeanor was among demeanest ever on display, has lit the bomb which may well blow up in Obama's face in the next fortnight. 
Anyone who wonders why there is so much animosity and gridlock in Washington need only review our Veep's performance last night.  In response to Paul Ryan at his most civil, Biden came across as a snarling old man more concerned with scoring cheap political points than with bettering the lives of all Americans.  He was like the old man next door who sits waiting by the window for a passing child to step on his grass, so he can charge out and yell, "Get off my lawn before I call the cops and have you throw in jail!"
Who was it who recently referred to Biden as "a body behind a grin"?
Whew!  I'm glad I got that off my chest.
I think it was Clint Eastwood...