Talk about a conundrum. The same CNN poll which had Obama winning Tuesday night’s debate 46-39 also had Romney winning most internal numbers and some by a rather wide margin.
Romney led 58-40 on ability to handle the economy, 49-46 on health care, 51-4 on taxes, and 49-46 on who would be the stronger leader.
So how do you get to the seven point lead for Obama overall? All I can figure is that Obama didn’t beat Romney by seven, but he beat the Romney from two weeks ago. In other words, while the Demagogue in Chief won the expectations game, he lost in other areas that count.
In fact, there was a 25-25 tie on the question of whom the debate would make you more likely to vote for.
Meanwhile Gallup is out with the worse news yet for Obama. He’s down six points (51-45) in today’s tracking poll; he was down four yesterday. This tends to verify polls earlier this week which showed Romney pulling virtually even with the women’s vote after being down double digits prior to last week’s debate in which the Delaware Dolt, as noted here, came across as a boorish buffoon, not at all the type of man women have confidence in.
The Real Clear Politics average (prior to the Gallup result) had Romney up 47.4-47.1, and even the liberal Huffington Post average had Romney pulling ahead 47.1-46.9. If only we could get another debate from appearance from the Smirking Dolt, team Romney would probably wrap this thing up.
Fivethirtyeight.com continues to have Obama likely to win the presidency although his odds are down to 65-35 today (they peaked at 85 percent a few weeks ago), and there are indications that Nate Silver is cherry picking which data he wants to use, sad but true since I’ve been a Silver defender until now.
Anyone wanna place a bet on exactly when 538 tips it in Romney’s favor?
538 now has Obama winning by 1.2 points (50.1-48.9) and winning the electoral votes 287-251. However, it has moved not only North Carolina and Florida into the Romney column, but Virginia and Colorado as well.
No wonder Team Obama seems to be focusing on New Hampshire, Iowa, Ohio, and Nevada today.
Rasmussen has Obama up one (50-49) in New Hampshire today, but Suffolk/Channel 7 had it dead even at 47-47 yesterday, and as reported her last week, ARG has Romney up 50-46. However, at 538, Silver, in giving Obama a two to one chance to win our small state, continues to use not only the UNH poll which has Obama up 6 but the one from the previous week which had him up 15. Even Andy Smith admitted that the only about half of the six-point poll was taken after the first debate which changed anything, so Romney could very well be ahead here now. Smith says he’s not going to release another poll until the week prior to the election.
Nate Silver needs to get his data updated or he will lose credibility from this corner.
For governor, it’s a 2-2 tie. Suffolk has Maggie up three points over Ovide (41-38) and Rasmussen has her up two (48-46), but ARG has Ovide up six (46-40) and UNH has him up four (39-35). Average them out, and Ovide is up a point or so.
UNH (or should I say WMUR/Granite State poll) nearly inexplicably had Frank Guinta moving from ten down to ten up (45-35) in the first c.d. while Kuster leads Bass by thee (38-35) in the second c.d. with one in four still undecided.
In Connecticut, Obama is up 16 (53-38) from Siena, important because Republican Senate candidate Linda (wife of Vince) McMahon is down only two (46-44) for the Senate.
Quinnipiac actually has Romney within four (50-46) in Pennsylvania; Dick Morris (not one of my favorite pundits) has said all along that Romney would win there enroute to a substantial victory nationwide. In an unreal development, Democratic Senator Casey is only up three points (48-45) there and Morning Call has him up only two (41-39), and no one had that on the radar screen as a potential GOP gain. However, in a bit of good news for Democrats, Rasmussen has incumbent Senator John Tester back even at 48-48 with Dennie Rehberg; that would be an upset.
Also good news for Democrats is Rasmussen’s latest generic Congressional ballot which shows Republicans trailing again this week, albeit only 43-42.
Rasmussen has Obama up only 15 points (57-42) in Massachusetts. Remember, I’ve opined that anything less than a 20 point Romney win would not be enough for Elizabeth Warren to unseat Scott Brown in the Senate.
Isn’t this fun?