Rep Steve Vaillancourt



Saturday
Sep292012

Man Blows Brains Out Live On Fox News





Have you ever seen a man blow his brains out on live TV?
If you were watching Fox News, as I was, Friday at about 3:30 in the afternoon, the answer is a disturbing yes.
Usually, I have the news on in the background when I'm doing other things.  Yesterday, I returned home from from the library after writing my Senate analysis and was checking red books (election books) to see if there was anything I should add.
I had Fox News on in the background, and for at least an hour, the station was carrying a non-news event, one of the ubiquitous car chases out of California.
So, this is news, I wondered, going back to the red books.  Hmm, Peggy Gilmour seems even safer than I thought in Nashua...she won by 950 votes in 2008, and third party candidate (Betty Hall) probably cost her another thousand votes.
I glanced at the TV as I found evidence that Nancy Stiles may be safer than I thought in District 24.  I kid you not, this is the way I watch TV.
Fox Host Shepherd Smith (no right wing fanatic he; in fact, unlike other Fox hosts, he trusts polls even when they go against Republicans) was loving the chase.  In fact, he said that although he wanted to continue with the chase, his producer said he had to go to other news, but then he came back from a commerical, and sure enough, the chase was still on.
The man fleeing had turned off the highway and was speeding through back country roads...witn no pursuers in sight.  Suddenly, he got out of the vehicle and as he started running, Shep said he was getting nervous.
Even though the on-air host said he was getting nervous, Fox continued the live shot.
The man actually fell down, got up, ran a bit farther, pointed a gun at his head and fell down.  Only then did Fox cut to a commercial with Shep panicking, yelling to cut it, cut it.
After the commercial, Shep was back with an apology, explaining that they supposedly had gone to a ten second delay, but that they had screwed up.  We weren't supposed to see the man blow his brains out on live TV.
That's reassuring.  Shep, visibly shaken as he completed the hour, promised he'd have an update on his 7 p.m. broadcast, so for three and a half hours, viewers were left wondering whether in fact the guy had blown his brains out or it was some kind of prank.  At 7:15 p.m., Shep did in fact report that the man had killed himself....live on Fox.  Sorry.
Sorry is not good enough.  Shep said on air he was nervous about what was about to happen.  Why didn't the station cut away then?  Was it so concerned with ratings that it couldn't go to real news and get back to this event?
There can be no excuse for what Fox did.  Shep Smith personally bears some of the blame, but the men and women behind the scene must bear much of it, and most of it goes to the executive who insist on carrying these chases.
Following the chases is like playing with a ticking time bomb...waiting to go off.
Who can be surprised that this bomb blew up in Fox's face...not to mention in the faces of its viewes.
This is disgusting.
Man Commits Suicide Live On Fox News After Car Chase In Phoenix
By By BOB CHRISTIE and DAVID BAUDER 09/29/12 03:06 AM ET EDT AP

Man Commits Suicide Live On Fox News After Car Chase In Phoenix

By By BOB CHRISTIE and DAVID BAUDER 09/29/12 03:06 AM ET EDT AP

 
Car Chase Suicide
Friday
Sep282012

Senate Predictions Part II (Districts 13-24)

 

When last we broached the subject of New Hampshire State Senate predictions, we came out with a 6-6 party split in Districts 1-12.  Let's focus on the final 12 districts here and see how Republicans should hold on to their Senate majority, albeit with only a 13-11 edge.  Only four or five races should be close, but it becomes increasingly obvious that they could prove pivotal.   Districts 18, 20, and 24 fall into that category.

District 13--54.38-45.62 Democratic Edge

Democrat Bette Lasky

After serving just one term in the Senate, former Representative Betty Lasky was voted out of office in 2010, but that was mostly due to the Republican sweep (her husband being caught stealing signs in the final days certainly didn't help either).  She will most certainly be back.  This district not includes six Nashua wards making it solidly Democratic, and the incumbent Republican (Lambert) is not running again.  Joseph Krasucki is.  Do you know him?  I rest my case.

District 14--14.70 Republican Edge

Republican Sharon Carson

No contest.  This is Londonderry, one of the last bastions of total Republican domination (much moreso than Derry).  Sharon Carson has done a fine job (it's always a job talking about the latest historical books with her--she and I are both into President Garfield these days); her opposition to right to work may have made her vulnerable in a Republican primary, but nobody challenged her, and Democrat Katherine Messner, of Hudson (still a Republican town) has no chance.  None.

District 15--63.39-36.61 Democratic Edge

Democrat Sylvia Larsen

As if possible, redistricting has made this Concord area seat even more Democratic.  Talk about a sure thing; that's what former Senate President Larsen is.  That makes Lydia Dube Harman, of Concord, the sacrificial lamb.  No mint jelly, please.

District 16--52.98-47.07 Republican Edge

Republican David Boutin

Like Sharon Carson, Boutin might have been vulnerable, due his anti right to work stance, in a Republican primary, but he got a pass.  He also might be vulnerable in a good Democratic year with an outstanding candidate, but top of the ticket should be fairly neutral this year, and you must remember what  Democrat Kathleen Kelley, former Manchester School Board member, did a few winters back.  Yes, she was involved in a hit and run; she ran into several parked cars late and night (some say she'd been drinking) and fled the scene.  Not exactly the type of candidate Ray Buckley could have wanted.  (Bob Backus, who lost to Senator Ted Gatsus twice, would have been a better choice, but he's running for State Rep in Ward 12).  True, this district which includes highly Republican Hooksett (along with Bow and three north Manchester wards) is slightly more Democratic due to redistricting.  A Democrat has never won here in my memory (Eleanor Podles held it for a long time); it may happen this decade, but not this year.

District 7--52.14-47.86 Republican Edge

Republican John Reagan

This one truly is interesting.  Convinced that Jack Barnes was extremely popular and really didn't need so much GOP territory, Republican redistricters took huge chucks of red areas out of this district (giving the towns to Russ Prescott in District 23) leaving it much less Republican.  Then Barnes decided not to run, meaning Democrats had a chance to steala the seat.  But by that time, they had decided they weren't going to win it, so they settled for Nancy Fraher.  A better known and well-funded Democrat might have had a chance, especially since Republican Rep John Reagan (one of my favorite people) had a close primary.  As it is, Reagan should win...not by a landslide, but it won't be all that close either.  Chalk this up as a major opportunity lost for Democrats...thanks to that wily old outgoing Senator Jack Barnes for not announcing his intentions to step down earlier.

District 18--53.70-46.30 Republican Edge

Democrat Donna Soucy

Sure, the numbers point to a rather substantial Republican edge here, but this is Manchester, and you really can't trust the numbers.  They skew toward Republicans, but that's because my numbers use top of the ticket races, and the conservative Democrats here tend to vote more Republican at the top of the ticket.  So throw the numbers out.  Truth in blogging--this is my Senate district and sad to say that while I wholeheartedly endorse Republican Gail Barry, I think the well known and well financed Donna Soucy will pull it out.  This may be the only district which has three different senators in the past ten years (Repulican Martel, Democrat DeVries, Repblican DeBlois)--that's how much of a toss-up it is.  Except for Ward 5, the five wards in south Manchester are less Democratic.  Throw in highly Republican Litchfield (about 15 percent of the district) and Republican should be favored, especially since popular Democrat Art Beaudry is running as an independent and should pull votes away from Soucy  Hhe and Soucy, for example, are both anti right to work; thus if Barry can take most of the pro right ot work votes, she should win.  However, it's a Presidential year and the high turnout should keep the Beaudry vote down, and while I'm voing for Gail Barry...I have to pick Soucy.  Sorry Gail...I have your sign up.

District 19--58.72-41.28 Republican Edge

Republican James Rausch

Few words are needed here.  This is the Derry area.  Dig out the mind jelly.  Democrat Christopher Reisdorf is the sacrificial lamb.

District 20--52.33-47.67 Republican Edge

Democrat Lou D'Allesandro

We're back in Manchester now (wards 3, 4, 10, 11 and Goffstown), so the edge number isn't terribly reliable.  A case could be made for two term Alderman and State Rep Phil Greazzo to upset seven term glad hander Lou D'Allesandro.  It should already be clear whom I'd vote for, but only a fool would bet against Lou.  I'd gladly vote againt him (Phil is my type of Libertarian-minded Republican), but I won't bet against him.  Still...Mitt Romney should do very well in Goffstown; Ovide should do very well in the two west side wards, so Phil could get coattails.  He's also got money and organization.  Still...As they used to tell opponents of Jay Rockefeller in West Virginia, "Make him spend it all," a reference to spending all his personal wealth.  In Lou's case, it's other people's money he's collected over the years.  He may not need to spend it all, but close to it.  It's truly depressing when one's head is at war with one's heart!

District 21--64.77-35.23 Democratic Edge (that's not a typo)

 Talk about stacking and packing!  Republican redistricters have created a district no Democrat could ever lose (they crammed Portsmouth and Durham together).  However, in the process, they proved to be too cute by half.  They thought they would lock out former Senator Martha Fuller Clark, of Portsmouth, by putting her in wih incumbent Mandy (baseball mon) Merrill, of Durham.  Then Mandy decided not to run.  Welcome back Martha, and a big thanks to those stackers and packers.  Oh yes, the Republican lamb is Peter Macdonald, of Lee (yet another highly Democratic town).  There's not enough mint jelly in the state to go with this lamb.

District 22--58.59-41.41 Republican Edge

Republican Chuck Morse

Even Raybo, if injected with enough truth serum, would have to admit Democrat Victoria Czaia (who?), of Atkinson, has no chance...absolutely none against Senate Finance Chair (and once rumored to be gubernatorial candidate) Dick Morse of Salem.  'Nuff said?  I think so.

District 23--53.56-46.44 Republican Edge

Republican Russell Prescott

A funny thing happened on the way to the 2012 election.  Two actually.  This is the district in which Russ Prescott, of Kingston, knocked off Maggie Hassan in the 2010 Republican sweep.  Well, Republican redistricters took huge chunks of Republican territory out of District 17 and placed it here.  Prior to that I had this district as literally 50/50 (50.08-49.92).  Now, especially with Maggie in the race for Governor and Democrat Carol Croteau, of Kingston running, Prescott appears to be safe.  No  absolute sure thing, but I'd give three to one odds, even with a gun to my head!

 We've saved the best for last, not just because it could determine control of the senate (Republicans lead 12-11 if you're keeping track), but because it's numerically last.

District 24--51.56-48.44

Republican Nancy Stiles

Thanks to the miracle of redistricting,Republican incumbent Nancy Stiles (who stunned Martha Fuller Clark two years ago) gets a disrict that I had as +14.48 for Democrats to one with a slight Republican edge.  Portsmouth is gone; Republican areas have been added.  The only complication is that former Senate President and Executive Council Bev Hollingworth, like Stiles, lives in Hampton, and she's running.  Only because I'm forcing myself to call all 24 races am I going with Stiles here.  She's done such a good job that she deserves re-election.  She's not one of those radical right wing Republicans so easy to demonize this year, but Raybo and Company will still probably find a way to demonize her.  I'd like to see polling data here; it's the one section of the Seacoast where Romney should be okay, but Ovide could drag Stiles down.  That's my story and I'm sticking to it. 

THE FINAL SCORE--13-11 Republicans

To recap, we had:

1--Democrat Jeff Woodburn

2--Republican Jeanie Forrester

3--Republican Jeb Bradley

4--Democrat David Watters

5--Democrat David Pierce

6--Republican Sam Cataldo

7--Democrat Andrew Hosmer

8--Republican Bob Odell

9--Republican Andy Sanborn

10--Democrat Molly Kelly

11--Republican President (now and future?) Peter Bradgon

12--Democrat Peg Gilmour

Friday
Sep282012

Another Appeal To Sign Up And To Stop Urinating On The Floor

Response to my offer to add new people to the automatic emailing list has been impressive, but there's still time to come on down...or to get on in.

Just email me with word that you'd like to be on the list, and I'll put you in.  My email address is steve.vaillancourt@leg.state.nh.us.

I'm also still getting "hate" responses--mostly from the same tired old people.  Some moron who goes by the name of RINO Safari has been banned here for constantly using ad hominem attacks.  He then has the utter gall to claim they are not slurs.  He continues to try to post here, and I eliminate them as fast as I see them.  I used the urinating on the living room floor example before.  If you urinate on this floor, you are not welcome.  Once you're banned, you are out forever.

Here's another example.  It's like getting a restraining order against someone.  A restraining order cannot be enforced every minute or second of the day, but it still exists, and if you are caught, there are consequences.  Consider a banishment here a restraining order.  Sure, you may be able to post, but you're doing so contrary to the laws of this blog.  So, in a sense you are breaking a law.  That goes for Al Baldasaro who as a State Rep should not be breaking laws...or restraining orders.

In the future, I will simply eliminate...immediately...illegal posting from anyone who has been banned.  It'll be as if they never existed. 

How to define ad hominem attack.  Well, let's just give a couple of examples.  "You need to get new medications"...that would be an ad hominem attack.  "You need help"...a favorite line of the RINO moron...that would be ad hominem attack.  You offer no valid arguments...merely assault someone..  Calling someone a moron...that would be an ad hominem attack...and I only do it after I've proven that in my humble opinion the moron status is valid.  In other words, yes, as the writer here I allow myself more leeway than people who want to pop in with one line slurs.  I spend dozens of hours a month doing this blog...literally hundreds of hours a year.  That entitles me to determine what are slurs and who is not welcome.  I don't do it with zest...since I'm a big advocate of free speech, but free speech does not mean you can say anything, anywhre.  That's just the way it is...if you don't like it, maybe you should try to get your own blog or forum...then you could ban me...not that I would ever go to such blogs.  

When you enter one's house, don't urinate on the living room floor without being asked to leave and never return.  When you enter this domain, you will be banned if you whip it out....pen or urinating devise...and start too ooze liquid.

Civil humanoids are still welcome here...and to be put on the automatic list by dropping me the line at steve.vaillancourt@leg.state.nh.us.

Thursday
Sep272012

No Debate Analysis Here

You may be surprised to learn that I can be bought.
I sure was.
Next week's debates, both presidential and gubernatorial, will not be analyzed in this blog.  I wasn't even sure I was going to watch them, but the New Hampshire Herald has asked me to analyze them for its next edition.
And if you can believe it, the paper wants to pay me for my exclusive wisdom. 
The deal is done.
This is a the free paper which appears in at least the Manchester and Concord areas (I pick it up at supermarkets).  In its previous incarnation, it managed to offend me with some over the top articles, but after its hiatus, it has returned, and I actually like it now.  Although right-oriented, it covers many perspectives (even kathythes appears in its pages) and is quite good.
Thus while I've offered all media free access to anything which appears in this blog, apparently the Herald wants an exclusive.  It's not a great deal of money, but then $100 a year as a State Rep is not a great deal either.  It's enough to pay the outrageous renewal fee  Manchester TV is charging (and I'm now eligible for the senior citizen rate--I never thought live long enough to say that).  Actually I'm not sure I'll sign on for another year on TV, but apparently a new career in the print media beckons.  Actually it wouldn't be new...that's where I began fresh out of college, in the Plymouth area...but that's another story.
A bizarre idea just popped into my mind.  I expect the Presidential debate will prove so uneventful that one could write a review in advance.  Just kidding.  I won't do that.
And I won't be commenting on the debates here....after all, we now know that I can be bought!  (Keep that in mind, main stream media....I may need a new low paying job come job November 7).
 The paper will be on the stands Oct. 5...time enough for them to correct my typos!
Thursday
Sep272012

Media Watch--Funny, Funnier, And Goodbye

 Loving The Loony--Even though he's a rabid left wing loony (notice I've fixed the spelling) and unapologetic Obama shill, David Letterman remain extremely funny.  Chances are I'll be watching him from 11:35-11:50 each weeknight (before I turn to Kimmel; I'm not fan of Leno).
While some right wing fanatics might accuse Letterman of being disrespectful in his interview with British Prime Minister David Cameron last night, I found it hilarious (and even informative).
I nearly choked laughing so hard when in response to Cameron not being able to translate Magna Carta (that famous document signed by King John at Runymede in 1215), Letterman quipped, "Boy it would be good if you knew this!"  Maybe it was just me but I found it hilarious rather than disrespectful.  It's not that tough a translation...from the Latin, it means something like great charter, n'est-ce pas?  "It would be good" if the P.M. knew that.
Et tu Miller?--Even funnier was Dennis Miller on Bill O'Reilly last night (yes, I usually watch at least portions of O'Reilly).  Never have his rants been funnier.  Not only do he scorch the vile Iranian President over his UN speech and the NFL over substitute refs, but he also got in a great shot at Fox's own foot fetishist Dick Morris.  In a previous segment, O'Reilly had focused on polls with pros like Karl Rove, Larry Sabato, and the fetishist.  The first two made sense.  Morris made so little sense that O'Reilly had to interrupt his twice to get him back on track.
First a confession--You may recall my New Years resolution to change channels whenever Morris appears.  I followed it for seven months, but lately have been catching bit of the fetishist from time to time.  He's just as outrageously smug (and wrong) as ever.  He insists that not only will Romney win big, he'll win Pennsylvania.  How can you trust a guy like this?  Apparently, Dennis Miller couldn't take Morris any more than I can.  He referred to the fetishist's wisdom as not being able to be contained on a grassy knoll, an opening for O'Reilly to plug his book on the JFK assassination.  Dennis also mocked the fetishist's book on his dog Dubbs going to DC but noting the new Morris book on Dubbs humping.  O'Reilly broke up.  So did I!  Why Fox continues to feature this nut case (Morris on most of their shows is beyond me.  He has zero credibility.  He's a mere hack for Republicans just as he was once a hack for Democrat Bill Clinton.  Follow the money, Dubbs!
Matt, We Hardly Knew Ye--So long and good luck to Concord Monitor reporter Matthew Spolar.  I knew he wouldn't last long.  They never do at the Monitor.  It's a great training ground for new hungry reporters on their way to bigger and better (higher paying) jobs.  I thought Spolar might follow Sarah Koenig who went to Baltimore, but apparently he's off to New York.  Like most Monitor reporters, Matt was great.  The paper gives space to its reporters to explore the Concord scene in detail, and they do a great job (not that there's anything wrong with the veterans like Kevin Landrigan, Norma Love and the Union Leader's Gary Rayno...although there was something very wrong with the vile...it's been a while since I've used that word... and incompetent guy who preceded Rayno at the Leader...gone and literally forgotten...I couldn't even remember his name...Tim or Tom something).
But I digress.  Matt Spolar and I shared something in common.  I was a Pittsburgh Pirate fan in my teen years (back before Matt was born).  I'd pull in KDKA radio and listen to Bob Prince and the Gunner and the Possum.  Occasionally I quote the Prince line here, "We had 'em all the way"  Matt picked up on that once and noted how he's a Pirate fan.  In fact, he tells me that he has discovered one of the rare copies of the complete broadcast of the 1960 World Series game 7 ("back to the wall goes Berra") which was lost for many years.
Good luck Matt.  I trust his replacement will be good as well and also won't last long.
 Et tu,Tiffany?--Tiffany Eddy, of Channel 9, is also leaving, but she's been on the scene considerably longer than Matt, 14 years.  I've always found Tiffany, like Tom Griffin at Channel 9, unoffensive.  Lest that sound like damning with faint praise, it's actually high praise indeed.  I judge newscasters by their tendency to offend me with their unending happy talk or their bias or their phony forced voices (like the WMUR morning weather guy...just terrible).  Tiffany and Tom through the years have managed not to offend me.  And that's high praise indeed.

Good luck Tiff