Rep Steve Vaillancourt
My insider sources--names are withheld to protect the innocent--tell me that three additional New Hampshire State Reps seats, which I had in the Republican column, are in jeopardy.
If you don't like the news, don't blame me, I'm only the messenger, and I'm not changing my predictions, but I hear that one of the two Newport seats (not to worry Bev) could go Democratic; that John Tholl is in trouble in Coos Country; and that despite winning the signage battle, Jon (no H please) is in trouble in Allenstown.
If my source is correct and all three go Democratic, it could tilt control of the House in that direction, bt the very same source is saying a Democratic insider has the number of likely wins as 185, short of my 198 prediction.
As always, I will maintain anonymity for sources if you'd care to drop a dime...
All together now...Bye, bye, Billy The Bully...
Imagine a football game wherein the referees abandoned their striped uniforms and started to lead downfield blocking for the team with the ball.
Or imagine a baseball game wherein, rather than call the play at the plate, the umpire started blocking the plate for the offensive team to score.
Or a basketball game wherein the referee jumped up to block a shot.
Or a hockey game wherein, just as a shot was about to get by the goalie, the referee jumped in to make the save.
I could go on and on, but you get the gist.
Officials are supposed to be neutral. In fact, lest we lose all confidence in the sport, officials must be neutral.
In politics, the same rules must apply when it comes to moderating debates...yet CNN's Candy Crowley was just as guilty last night as those wayward sports officials would be if they did what I noted here.
First, she allowed Barack Obama to have the last word on so many issues that he ended up getting three more minutes of talking time (just like in the first debate and like in the Biden debate), but then she actually interjected misinformation on the Libya question. It was so blatant that Obama exhorted her to say it louder. Of course, today she was trying to say it softer--that she screwed up.
If she would have just shut up last night and done the job she was supposed to do, she wouldn't have to fess up today.
Candy Crowley may be a boon to CNN (I wouldn't know), but she was an embarrassment as a debate moderator.
The format, of course, was bad in itself. It's time to get rid of questions from the unwashed public. I mean really...guns and women's salaries and how Romney would differ from George W. Bush. Are these what Americans care most about.
But then, consider who was picking the questions. Yes, that would be the Candy Woman!
Who is moderating the foreign policy debate Monday night?
Bill O'Reilly? He could be fair.
Sean Hannity? He would be no more partisan the the Candy Woman.
But you can be sure it won't be either of those illustirous journalists.
Maybe they'll dig Dan Rather out of mothballs...or Chris Wallace...or I hear Keith Oberman is looking for a new gig.
Debate planners, get real and get a real neutural moderator from now on!
Talk about a conundrum. The same CNN poll which had Obama winning Tuesday night’s debate 46-39 also had Romney winning most internal numbers and some by a rather wide margin.
Romney led 58-40 on ability to handle the economy, 49-46 on health care, 51-4 on taxes, and 49-46 on who would be the stronger leader.
So how do you get to the seven point lead for Obama overall? All I can figure is that Obama didn’t beat Romney by seven, but he beat the Romney from two weeks ago. In other words, while the Demagogue in Chief won the expectations game, he lost in other areas that count.
In fact, there was a 25-25 tie on the question of whom the debate would make you more likely to vote for.
Meanwhile Gallup is out with the worse news yet for Obama. He’s down six points (51-45) in today’s tracking poll; he was down four yesterday. This tends to verify polls earlier this week which showed Romney pulling virtually even with the women’s vote after being down double digits prior to last week’s debate in which the Delaware Dolt, as noted here, came across as a boorish buffoon, not at all the type of man women have confidence in.
The Real Clear Politics average (prior to the Gallup result) had Romney up 47.4-47.1, and even the liberal Huffington Post average had Romney pulling ahead 47.1-46.9. If only we could get another debate from appearance from the Smirking Dolt, team Romney would probably wrap this thing up.
Fivethirtyeight.com continues to have Obama likely to win the presidency although his odds are down to 65-35 today (they peaked at 85 percent a few weeks ago), and there are indications that Nate Silver is cherry picking which data he wants to use, sad but true since I’ve been a Silver defender until now.
Anyone wanna place a bet on exactly when 538 tips it in Romney’s favor?
538 now has Obama winning by 1.2 points (50.1-48.9) and winning the electoral votes 287-251. However, it has moved not only North Carolina and Florida into the Romney column, but Virginia and Colorado as well.
No wonder Team Obama seems to be focusing on New Hampshire, Iowa, Ohio, and Nevada today.
Rasmussen has Obama up one (50-49) in New Hampshire today, but Suffolk/Channel 7 had it dead even at 47-47 yesterday, and as reported her last week, ARG has Romney up 50-46. However, at 538, Silver, in giving Obama a two to one chance to win our small state, continues to use not only the UNH poll which has Obama up 6 but the one from the previous week which had him up 15. Even Andy Smith admitted that the only about half of the six-point poll was taken after the first debate which changed anything, so Romney could very well be ahead here now. Smith says he’s not going to release another poll until the week prior to the election.
Nate Silver needs to get his data updated or he will lose credibility from this corner.
For governor, it’s a 2-2 tie. Suffolk has Maggie up three points over Ovide (41-38) and Rasmussen has her up two (48-46), but ARG has Ovide up six (46-40) and UNH has him up four (39-35). Average them out, and Ovide is up a point or so.
UNH (or should I say WMUR/Granite State poll) nearly inexplicably had Frank Guinta moving from ten down to ten up (45-35) in the first c.d. while Kuster leads Bass by thee (38-35) in the second c.d. with one in four still undecided.
In Connecticut, Obama is up 16 (53-38) from Siena, important because Republican Senate candidate Linda (wife of Vince) McMahon is down only two (46-44) for the Senate.
Quinnipiac actually has Romney within four (50-46) in Pennsylvania; Dick Morris (not one of my favorite pundits) has said all along that Romney would win there enroute to a substantial victory nationwide. In an unreal development, Democratic Senator Casey is only up three points (48-45) there and Morning Call has him up only two (41-39), and no one had that on the radar screen as a potential GOP gain. However, in a bit of good news for Democrats, Rasmussen has incumbent Senator John Tester back even at 48-48 with Dennie Rehberg; that would be an upset.
Also good news for Democrats is Rasmussen’s latest generic Congressional ballot which shows Republicans trailing again this week, albeit only 43-42.
Rasmussen has Obama up only 15 points (57-42) in Massachusetts. Remember, I’ve opined that anything less than a 20 point Romney win would not be enough for Elizabeth Warren to unseat Scott Brown in the Senate.
Isn’t this fun?