Rep Steve Vaillancourt



Tuesday
Jan172012

The Week In Polls--Jan. 17--Ron Paul Neck and Neck With Obama

THE EFT (or an EFT).      

      Even as Fox News touts its new poll showing Mitt Romney within a point of Barack Obama in a head-to-head match-up for the fall, here’s what you won’t hear on Fox News (and certainly not from the consummate hack Dick Morris).

            Ron Paul is within two points of Obama, no, not with a Fox Poll (they didn’t even run that scenario).  CNN/Opinion Research from Monday has Ron Paul losing to Obama only 48-46; at the same time Obama beats the Eft by nine (52-43) and Santorum by six (51-45).  Romney actually wins the CNN match-up 48-47 over Obama, but as with every other poll I can find, it’s Ron Paul who runs second best among Republican hopefuls.

            The Fox Poll has the Eft losing to the Anointed One by a staggering 14 points (52-38) and Santorum losing by a nearly as staggering 12 points (50-38).

            PPP actually has Ron Paul doing just as well as Romney against Obama, both lose by five points (49-44 for Romney and 47-42 for Paul, actually a better number since more Obama is held to fewer points) while Obama beats Gingrich by seven (49-42), Santorum by eight (50-42) and Perry by 11 (51-40).

            ABC News has Romney beating Obama 48-46 with Gingrich losing by 12 (52-40), Santorum by 11 (52-41), and Ron Paul by only seven (49-42).

            For The Eft to claim that only he can beat Obama is pure insanity.

            Clearly, it needs to be either Romney or Ron Paul.

            Unlike prior to the New Hampshire when Romney was mired in the 25 percent range in nationwide Republican polling, he’s pulled way ahead this week, even hitting 40 in the Fox News Poll (Santorum second with 15, Eft 14, Dr. Paul 13, and Perry 6).  ABC News has Romney up more than two to one—Romney 36, Dr. Paul and The Eft tied for second at 16, Santorum 13, and Perry 9.  Gallup has an even bigger margin for Romney, 34-15 over The Eft with Santorum at 15, Dr. Paul 14, and Perry at 6.

           

            Two South Carolina polls out Tuesday have Romney up by double digits again.  Monmouth has him leading The Eft 33-22 with Santorum at 14 and Dr. Paul 12.  Rasmussen has Romney leading Gingrich 35-21 with Dr. Paul and Huntsman tied for third at 16 and Perry at 5.

            Only ARG has a real horse race in South Carolina with Romney at 29, Gingrich 25, Dr. Paul at 20, and Perry actually ahead of Santorum 9-7.  A third place finish for Dr. Paul in South Carolina is thus not out of the question.         

As always, truth in blogging-- I’m a diehard Ron Paul supporter.

Nate Silver from fivethirtyeight.com (excellent in New Hampshire forecasting) projects Romney to win South Carolina with 36.2 percent to 22.2 for The Eft and 16.2 for Dr. Paul.  He’s 91 percent certain Obama will win Saturday and 94 percent sure he’ll win in Flordia (Romney 45.4, Gingrich 25.9, Santorum 12.2 is the current projection).

            Someone asked me what The Eft is.  As I reported earlier, it’s a great Scrabble word (I actually encountered it yesterday doing a crossword puzzle).  It’s a baby salamander or newt, and I used it to show my utter disdain for this real live Newt who has become a master of demagoguery and deceit and little else.

            If South Carolina doesn’t kill off The Eft (figuratively speaking of course), Florida looks certain to do the trick.  Sunshine State News has Romney up 26 points over The Eft there 46-20 with Santorum at 12 and Dr. Paul 9 (he’s not contesting this winner take all state).

            As predicted here last week, Obama’s favorability is heading south again.  It’s now -2.8 points (46.0-48.8).

            Rasmussen has Republicans holding to a six point lead in this week’s generic Congressional ballot (44-38).

            There’s more bad news for Democrats out of Nebraska.  Even with Bob Kerrey running for the open Senate seat, he loses—by 11 points (51-40) to Bruning and by eight points (47-39) to Stenberg.  Kiss that seat good bye. 

           

Tuesday
Jan172012

County By County Percentages For NH Primary

            With final numbers for the primary out from the Secretary of State’s office, I spent some time this weekend running percentages for various counties.  Here they are.  As expected, the closer you get to the Massachusetts border, the better Mitt Romney did (46.2 percent in Rockingham County, a margin of 26.3 points between him and the second place finisher).  He hit 56 percent in Salem.

            At the other extreme, Ron Paul won Coos County by two percent.

            I also separated the towns Ron Paul won (approximately 60, mostly small towns), the towns Huntsman won (very few), and the towns Huntsman came in second ahead of Ron Paul, mostly more upscale or largely Democratic communities.  Imagine that!  Only towns in which more than 100 votes were cast are tabulated here.

            Huntsman finished first in:  Dublin, Keene, Nelson, Hanover, Hillsborough, Canterbury, Concord Ward 5, and Henniker.

            Huntsman finished ahead of Ron Paul in those towns along with:  Jackson, Bartlett, Tuftonboro, Chesterfield, Keene overall, Richmond, Walpole, Westmoreland, no place in Coos County, Franconia, Hebron, Holderness, Lebanon, Lyme, Orford, Waterville Valley, Amherst, Bedford, Hollis, Manchester Ward 1, Peterborough, Temple, Bow, Concord Wards 7 and 10, Hopkinton, Newbury, New London, Atkinson, Exeter, Greenland, Hampstead, Hampton Falls, Newcastle, Newfields, Newington, North Hampton, Portsmouth Wards 1 and 5, Rye, Stratham, Dover Wards 3 and 5, Durham, Madbury, Rochester Ward 3, Claremont Ward 2, Cornish, Grantham, and Plainfield.

            Ron Paul finished first in:  Laconia Ward 5, New Hampton, Tilton in Belknap County; Effingham in Carroll County; Alstead, Harrisville, Keene Ward 2, Marlow, Richmond, Sullivan, Troy, and Winchester in Cheshire County; Berlin overall, Colebrook, Columbia, Dalton, Milan, Northumberland, Stark, Stewartstown, and Whitefield in Coos County; Bethlehem, Canaan, Grafton, Groton, Lisbon, Lyman, Monroe, Piermont, Romney, Thornton, Wentworth, Warren in Grafton County; Antrim, Deering, Greenfield, Hillsborough, Manchester Wards 4, 5, and 11, Nashua Ward 4, New Ipswich in Hillsborough County; Andover, Boscawen, Bradford, Chichester, Concord Wards 4 and 6, Danbury, Epsom, Franklin Ward 2, Hill, Northfield, Pittsfield, Salisbury, and Webster in Merrimack County; no place in Rockingham County!; Dover Ward 1 and Somersworth Ward 2 in Strafford County; and Acworth, Charlestown, Claremont Ward 1, Croydon, and Goshen in Sullivan County.

            In terms of sheer numbers, Rick Perry did best (42 votes) in Londonderry; Rick Santorum (524 and 523 votes) in Merrimack and Derry; and The Eft (778 votes) in Bedford.  

 

County By County Percentage For 2012 NH Primary

(Best showing underlined)

 

                   State   Belk  Car  Ches   Coos  Graf  Hills  Merr  Rock  Stra  Sull

Romney     39.1     39.4  41.3   30.9    28.0  30.4  40.8  32.9 46.2  35.3 28.9

 

Ron Paul    22.8     23.9  22.6   25.8    30.0  24.9  22.6  24.1   19.9 24.5 24.2

 

Huntsman   16.7    14.6   15.7    20.5    15.2  22.0  15.4  20.2   15.0  16.3  21.5

 

Santorum      9.4      9.7    7.3   11.6    10.9   8.9    9.3   10.1     8.0   12.4  11.4

 

Gingrich        9.3      9.5    10.7    8.3     13.2  10.7   9.3    9.8     8.4   8.6     11.4

 

Perry             0.7     0.9    0.7     0.7     0.8      0.9   0.7      0.6    0.7   1.0     0.7 

 

Margin         16.3   15.5    18.7   5.1    -2.0    5.5    18.2   8.8   26.3   10.8   4.7     

1 Vs. 2 

 

Seth Cohn has provided a link to a color map.  Note the lack of Ron Paul coloration in Rockingham and Strafford Counties.  

Tuesday
Jan172012

An Idiot Goes Abroad Again

puzzles

Karl At The Taj

            Remember Karl Pilkington?

            He’s the English bloke, the so-called “idiot” whom Ricky Gervais sent around the world exploring ancient wonders in a Science Channel series entitled “An Idiot Abroad” last year.

            Well, heeee’s back.

            When this eight-part series ended last spring with Karl high up in the Andes exploring Incan ruins at Machu Picchu, many of us were left longing for more.

            Karl seemed to say no, but apparently he’s reconsidered, and “An Idiot Abroad” returns this weekend, Saturday night.  Science Channel is 193 on Dish Network; I assume it’s carried on other dishes and cable outlets as well.  It’s run many, many times, so if you miss the first airing, fear not.

            “An Idiot Abroad” is not your normal travelogue program.  Part Monty Python, part John Waters, and of course part Ricky Gervais, this show is more comedy than travelogue, but in fact, it’s a brilliant meshing of the two.

            My favorite segments last year were in China and India, but the ones in the Middle East, and Latin American were also excellent.

            The sequel is billed as a to-do list for Karl.  His first assignment is to spend a night on a desert island called Vanuatu in the South Pacific.  You can be sure there’ll be more than sun, sea, and sand for Karl.

            I can’t wait.

            For those who missed season one of “An Idiot Abroad”, boy are you in for a treat…or maybe not.  I should admit that this will not be to everyone’s taste, but it sure is mine.

            I can’t wait.

            Bring on the Idiot Abroad.

Friday
Jan132012

Entrepreneurs Should Remember Thomas Paine 

 

  •  

  • In preparation for the first edition of "The Liberty Express" which will air next week on Manchestertv23 (Monday at 10, Tuesday at 11, Thursday at 9, and Sunday at noon), I went in search of Thomas Paine, one of the most fascinating men in history.  Villified on two continents from both the left and the right, nearly killed during the Reign of Terror in the French Revolution, and then villified again for his secular views as expressed in The Age of Reason, Thomas Paine certainly merits a new full length biography by some great historian like David McCullough.

    I realized how inspiring Common Sense was and how Thomas Paine kept Americans from despair during the darkest days of the revolution, but I had never come upon this little gem called The Entrepreur's Credo which seems especially relevant today as pseudo-conservatives like Newt Gingrich, with the blessing of pseudo-conservatives like Joe McQuaid and Bill O'Brien, try to tear Mitt Romney's idea of free enterprise capitalism to shreds.

    Ayn Rand must have been channeling Thomas Paine when she wrote Atlas Shrugged.

    I share with you here, as I will share with you on The Liberty Express next week, words to live by from Thomas Paine, a true patriot.  Ironically, Paine failed as a capitalist.  After urging us to rebel from the Bristish yoke, he left America to return to England hoping to build a new kind of bridge.  It didn't work out.  He was poor most of his life, a good example of how those who strive ahead don't always get there but continue to strive.  The right to fail is so typically American, something the left wingers in control today would never see...but apparently something The Eft and Perry and mealy-mouthed Republicans fail to see as well.

     

    The Enterpreneur's Credo
    I do not choose to be a common man,
    It is my right to be uncommon … if I can,
    I seek opportunity … not security.
    I do not wish to be a kept citizen.
    Humbled and dulled by having the
    State look after me.
    I want to take the calculated risk;
    To dream and to build.
    To fail and to succeed.
    I refuse to barter incentive for a dole;
    I prefer the challenges of life
    To the guaranteed existence;
    The thrill of fulfillment
    To the stale calm of Utopia.
    I will not trade freedom for beneficence
    Nor my dignity for a handout
    I will never cower before any master
    Nor bend to any threat.
    It is my heritage to stand erect.
    Proud and unafraid;
    To think and act for myself,
    To enjoy the benefit of my creations
    And to face the world boldly and say:
    This, with God’s help, I have done
    All this is what it means
    To be an Entrepreneur.”
    Friday
    Jan132012

    Final Thoughts (And Charts) On The NH Primary

                Ho hum!

                Lest I sound sacrilegious, that phrase would best describe the New Hampshire primary.  The cake was baked six months ago, and no matter how high the media tried to gin up interest and make this a close race, a baked cake is seldom rebaked.

                Surprises were few and only minimal at that.

                For example, I was pleasantly surprised at just how well Ron Paul did, three or four percent higher than most polls had indicated.  He actually won upwards of 60 towns and numerous city wards, but most of the towns he won were small (Coos County and the Pemi Baker Valley for example) with many fewer votes than the big Rockingham and Hillsborough towns which went big for Romney.

                That was hardly a surprise based on Romney’s strength four years ago.

                I was also slightly surprised that Huntsman did quite so well, but if you look at the places he did best in, there is no surprise, more upscale communities (Hanover, New London, Manchester Ward 1), places which typify what I like to call the yuppification of the Republican Party.

                I was also pleasantly surprised that the two Republicans candidates I could never vote for (Santorum and The Eft) completely struck out, each failing to reach double digits and battling each other for last place (among the contenders) to the extent that the Eft actually overtook Rick The F once the final totals were in from the Secretary of State.

                Union Leader publisher Joseph W. McQuaid, a truth denier and a humanoid whom I disdain perhaps even more than the Eft and Rick the F, came out of this affair not just with egg on his face but with an entire omelet bespoiling his kisser.   Long after the Eft was totally discredited—made to look like a fool by talk host Howie Carr—McQuaid clung to his misguided support of the biggest loser in the state.  Twas fitting—biggest loser sticks by biggest loser.  Howie Carr even marveled at how McQuaid had made such a fool or himself and the paper William Loeb bequeathed him.  It was so amusing that, although I had reached the Radisson on my trip down from Concord (I had agreed to be on Russian and Orlando radio again), I kept the car radio on to hear attack McQuaid and the Eft!  

                All went beyond my fondest expectations.  I was happier than I’ve been in a single since that epic June day in 1999 when I finally evicted a parasite from my home.

                With so few surprises, we should hold pollsters and pundits to unusually high standards this year.  To do that, I’ve put a chart together.  Let’s look at the final results compared to final projections from four pollsters and four pundits who went on the record (New York Times numbers cruncher Nate Silver, the Nashua Telegraph’s Kevin Landrigan, Steve Lombardo of the Huffington Post, and your humble blogger).

                Nate Silver appears to be the biggest winner and I highly recommend a daily dose on his numbers crunching a fivethirtyeight.com.  It would only be accurate for me to say that I probably did second best.  I got the order of finish for the top five right and while I had Dr. Paul and Huntsman with a bit too little and Santorum and the Eft with a bit too much, I feel redemption after Iowa.

                While Kevin Landrigan hit the Romney number and the margin of victory rather well, the fact that he had Huntsman in fifth place knocks down his punditry prowess.  Steve Lombardo of Huffington Post not only had the margin way too high (24 points like UNH), but like ARG, he actually had Huntsman edging Ron Paul for second, so we need to hold that very much against them.  Among pollsters in my sample, probably Suffolk wins the prize although it was releasing a daily tracking poll so it depends which day you use (I choose the final day).

                Ron Paul’s universally better than predicted showing can be explained by a curiously low turnout.  Oh, I know, the lame stream media is telling you that this was a record turnout for a Republican primary.  And in fact, Secretary of State William Gardner's prediction of 250,000 was almost exactly right.   However, with absolutely no race on the Democratic side, nearly all Undeclared voters opted for a Republican ballot.  Had Republicans been voting in record numbers, we would have seen turnout closer to 300,000, and Romney would have won by even more.  Fewer than expected actual Republicans cast ballots, not a good sign for the GOP heading into a fall campaign against Obama.  That certainly isn't the Republican party line, but as always I prefer the truth to any party line.

                As fewer Republicans voted and more Undeclared voters took Republican ballots, Ron Paul’s percentage was driven up.  Had Huntsman not been in the race, Dr. Paul might well have hit 30-33 percent, but that’s speculation.

                Of course, the bad news for Democrats is that 19 percent actually went out to vote against Obama.  Spinners like Debbie Wassermann Schultz (what a vile humanoid she is!) will pretend not to worried, but they should be.  George Bush received a similar low number in the 2004 uncontested Republican primary, and he lost the state in November.

               Here’s the chart.

     

    NH Primary--How Pollsters/Pundits Did

    Candidate  Actual  Nate         SV       Huff      Kevin   Suffolk      UNH       Ras

    Romney      39.4      39          40          42         38         37          41          37

     

    Ron Paul    22.8      19         20         18           20         18            17          17

     

    Huntsman  17         17         13         19           10         16            11         15

     

    Santorum   9          10         12         11            16         11            11         13

     

    Gingrich     9          10         11         9              13         9              8            12

     

    1 vs. 2          16.6      20         20         24         20         21          24          20

    Spread

              Always on the lookout to get an early sense of what the final results will be, I headed to Manchester Ward 2 which I’ve discovered usually mirrors statewide returns about as well as any town or ward you’re likely to find.  Sure enough, Ward 2 came through again.  I’ve put this chart together to compare certain Manchester wards.  Again, surprises are few.  Upscale Ward 1 went more for Romney and Huntsman came in second.  Ron Paul did very well in West Side Ward 10, but the big surprise is that he won West Side Ward 11, lower socio-economically and traditionally thought of as French Catholic territory (thus perhaps explaining Santorum's slightly better showing).  I also included my own Ward 8, right in the middle of upscale and downscale and not surprisingly in the middle of support for Romney although slightly higher than usual.

    NH Primary—Manchester2 Is Bellwether

     

    Candidate  State     Wd 2    Wd 10  Wd 11  Wd 1       Wd 8        Manch

    Romney      39.4      38.3      31.6      30.0      43.6      41.3       37.2     

     

    Ron Paul    22.8      22.9      28.8      34.7      16.0      21.1       24.7


    Huntsman   17         16.2      10.2      10.0      19.0      13.3       14.4

     

    Santorum     9          9.6         12.9      13.7      7.6         10.6      10.1

     

    Gingrich       9          11.4      10.2      10.1      12.0      12.2       11.6

     

    1 vs. 2          16.6      15.4      2.8         -4.7     24.6      20.2       12.5

    Spread