THE EFT (or an EFT).
Even as Fox News touts its new poll showing Mitt Romney within a point of Barack Obama in a head-to-head match-up for the fall, here’s what you won’t hear on Fox News (and certainly not from the consummate hack Dick Morris).
Ron Paul is within two points of Obama, no, not with a Fox Poll (they didn’t even run that scenario). CNN/Opinion Research from Monday has Ron Paul losing to Obama only 48-46; at the same time Obama beats the Eft by nine (52-43) and Santorum by six (51-45). Romney actually wins the CNN match-up 48-47 over Obama, but as with every other poll I can find, it’s Ron Paul who runs second best among Republican hopefuls.
The Fox Poll has the Eft losing to the Anointed One by a staggering 14 points (52-38) and Santorum losing by a nearly as staggering 12 points (50-38).
PPP actually has Ron Paul doing just as well as Romney against Obama, both lose by five points (49-44 for Romney and 47-42 for Paul, actually a better number since more Obama is held to fewer points) while Obama beats Gingrich by seven (49-42), Santorum by eight (50-42) and Perry by 11 (51-40).
ABC News has Romney beating Obama 48-46 with Gingrich losing by 12 (52-40), Santorum by 11 (52-41), and Ron Paul by only seven (49-42).
For The Eft to claim that only he can beat Obama is pure insanity.
Clearly, it needs to be either Romney or Ron Paul.
Unlike prior to the New Hampshire when Romney was mired in the 25 percent range in nationwide Republican polling, he’s pulled way ahead this week, even hitting 40 in the Fox News Poll (Santorum second with 15, Eft 14, Dr. Paul 13, and Perry 6). ABC News has Romney up more than two to one—Romney 36, Dr. Paul and The Eft tied for second at 16, Santorum 13, and Perry 9. Gallup has an even bigger margin for Romney, 34-15 over The Eft with Santorum at 15, Dr. Paul 14, and Perry at 6.
Two South Carolina polls out Tuesday have Romney up by double digits again. Monmouth has him leading The Eft 33-22 with Santorum at 14 and Dr. Paul 12. Rasmussen has Romney leading Gingrich 35-21 with Dr. Paul and Huntsman tied for third at 16 and Perry at 5.
Only ARG has a real horse race in South Carolina with Romney at 29, Gingrich 25, Dr. Paul at 20, and Perry actually ahead of Santorum 9-7. A third place finish for Dr. Paul in South Carolina is thus not out of the question.
As always, truth in blogging-- I’m a diehard Ron Paul supporter.
Nate Silver from fivethirtyeight.com (excellent in New Hampshire forecasting) projects Romney to win South Carolina with 36.2 percent to 22.2 for The Eft and 16.2 for Dr. Paul. He’s 91 percent certain Obama will win Saturday and 94 percent sure he’ll win in Flordia (Romney 45.4, Gingrich 25.9, Santorum 12.2 is the current projection).
Someone asked me what The Eft is. As I reported earlier, it’s a great Scrabble word (I actually encountered it yesterday doing a crossword puzzle). It’s a baby salamander or newt, and I used it to show my utter disdain for this real live Newt who has become a master of demagoguery and deceit and little else.
If South Carolina doesn’t kill off The Eft (figuratively speaking of course), Florida looks certain to do the trick. Sunshine State News has Romney up 26 points over The Eft there 46-20 with Santorum at 12 and Dr. Paul 9 (he’s not contesting this winner take all state).
As predicted here last week, Obama’s favorability is heading south again. It’s now -2.8 points (46.0-48.8).
Rasmussen has Republicans holding to a six point lead in this week’s generic Congressional ballot (44-38).
There’s more bad news for Democrats out of Nebraska. Even with Bob Kerrey running for the open Senate seat, he loses—by 11 points (51-40) to Bruning and by eight points (47-39) to Stenberg. Kiss that seat good bye.