TUESDAY UPDATE--We get the first evidence that Obama will lose to a real as well as a generic Republican. Rasmussen now has him a full eight points behind a generic Republican, but ABC News has an even more daming poll. Obama loses to Romney by four (49-45) and to Perry by one (47-46). He still beats Bachmann by six (50-44) and Palin (she's not going to run) Palin by 12 (53-41.
As we return from Labor Day weekend to a plethora of new polls, evidence continues to mount that Texas Governor Rick Perry is not merely the new Republican front runner, he is (at least for the time being) the prohibitive front runner.
However, while a generic Republican continues to beat Barack Obama by four points (44-40 according to a new NBC/Wall Street Journal survey), specific Republicans continue to lag behind, Perry by five (47-42), Mitt Romney by one (46-45), and Sara Palin by 12 (47-35 according to Rasmussen).
Even as more and more pollsters are weighing in with record lows for Obama, his Real Clear Politics average has actually ticked slightly upward this past week. He’s “only” down 7.9 points (43.6-51.5). That’s in large part because Gallup, which had him down 15 points at times last week, now has him down only seven, 43-50. It’s 12 with Rasmussen (43-55), seven with NBC (44-51), and five with the bipartisan Battleground Poll (45-50).
Whatever numbers you use, there’s really no good news for Obama or just about anyone else right now. Democrat pollster Peter Hart finds 82 percent opposed to the job Congress is doing. A Washington Post/ACB News poll has the right track/wrong track number at negative 57 (20-77).
Rasmussen has Republicans ahead seven (44-37) in the generic Congressional ballot but Battleground has Democrats up one (41-40). The difference appears to be that Rasmussen samples on likely voters.
Perhaps most interesting of all are Perry’s numbers. He now leads Mitt Romney by 11.7 points not in just one or two polls but in the RCP average. It’s Perry 29.0, Romney 17.3, Palin 10.6, Ron Paul and Michelle Bachmann 8.3, Gingrich 4.6, Cain 4.4, Santorum 2.7, and Huntsman 1.3.
In the NBC poll out today, Perry is up by 15 (38-23), but he’s up 19 in the Battleground Poll (36-17).
More and more, it appears like a two person race with Palin and Ron Paul usually polling around 10 percent, and Bachmann slipping below that in more recent polls.
We also are getting some individual state polls including a Rasmussen poll which has Perry now ahead of Bachmann by 11 in her do or die state of Iowa. It’s Perry 29, Bachmann 18, Romney 17, and Ron Paul 14.
A Los Angeles Times Poll shows Romney and Perry tied at 22 in California with Paul at 11, Palin and Bachman at 10, Gingrich at 6, Cain 4, and Huntsman and Santorum one each.
The poll shows Obama way ahead in California, 19 points over Romney (54-35), 24 over Perry (56-32), and 26 over Bachmann (57-31). No one expects Obama to have trouble in California of course.
In perhaps the real shocker of the week, the Republican candidate Turner has pulled ahead of the Democrat 45-40 in New York’s ninth Congressional district (the Anthony Wiener seat). That would be a stunning upset in solidly Democratic New York City.
WBUR has a poll out showing Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown comfortably ahead of his most likely Democratic challenger Margaret Warren who is so controversial she was passed over for a position in the Obama administration. She seems like another Martha Coakley in the making, a darling with the left wing fringe but not the type who can win even in the Bay State.
Gallup is out with the states having the most and least people covered by healthy insurance. As might be expected, Massachusetts with Romney care has the most—only 5.3 percent are not covered. Texas (will Perry use this as a badge of honor?) has the least—27.2 percent are not covered.
New Hampshire is in the middle with 14.7 not covered (it’s 13.6 in Rhode Island, 13.9 in Maine, 10.3 in Connecticut and 9.2 in Vermont—second best in the entire country). More details than you’ll probably care to learn about are available at gallup.com.
Gallup also has Americans’ fear of a terrorist attack at the lowest point since the 9/11 attacks. The number peaked at 85 percent late in 2002. It’s down to 38 percent today, responding very or somewhat likely to the question,” How likely is it that there will be acts of terrorism in the United States over the next several weeks?” Only 36 percent are worried that someone in their family will be a victim of terrorism. Women, adults 35 and older, and Republicans are more worried than men, young adults, and Democrats.
To borrow a line from Linda Ellerbee, “And so it goes.”