When you spend millions of dollars sending reporters to a snow less New Hampshire to cover the first in the nation primary, you expect a little more bang for your buck than a runaway, so I guess it should come as no surprise that the lame stream media is going out of its way to make a horse race where there is none.
After all, it’s more exciting to proclaim, even on the flimsiest of evidence, that Jon Huntsman is surging than to tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth…that Mitt Romney has this race wrapped up, has had for years, and no one is going to even come close.
In fact, no merely does Mitt Romney have New Hampshire wrapped up, but he may well have the nomination wrapped up. Heck, he may well have the Presidency wrapped up, so why don’t we just save ourselves ten months of Sturm and Stress, declare him the winner and all go home.
If the media can’t have a horserace at the top of the ticket, then they’ll push for a race for second. That’s the subplot this day before the primary. Huntsman will certainly make a close race for second, we’re told.
We have no fewer than six polls from the past week, and unless every single undecided voter (I don’t believe there really are all that many of them) falls in line for the same dark horse, this race is over.
Here’s the Real Clear Politics average for New Hampshire the day before the primary. Romney leads Ron Paul by 18.7 points, and Ron Paul leads Jon Huntsman and Rick Santorum, who are tied for third, by 8.3 points.
Don’t take my word for it.
Here are the numbers—Romney 38.5, Ron Paul 19.8, Huntsman and Santorum 11.5, The Eft 9.5, and Rick We Hardly Knew Ye Perry is up to 1.0.
Fivethirtyeight.com gives Romney a 98 percent chance of winning New Hampshire (two percent for Dr. Paul). They project he’ll take 38.6 percent of the vote to 19.6 for Dr. Paul and 15.7 for Huntsman, closer for second but still not a nail biter.
Not only that, but 538 has Romney ahead of The Eft and Santorum by nearly ten points in South Carolina with a 61 percent chance of winning there (19 percent for the Eft and 18 percent for Santorum).
Not only that, but 538 now has the line out for Florida. Romney has moved to a 13 point lead over the Eft (38.2-25.2 with Santorum at 17.2). Romney’s chances of winning there are 82 percent (15 percent for the Eft and three percent for Santorum).
Barring the unforeseen (video of the front runner in bed with a dead girl or a live boy), this race is over.
I know, I know. We thought it was over four years ago when Hillary broke down and cried and scored the sympathy backlash.
Will lightning strike twice in the same place?
The media sure hopes so.
The only poll which has anything other than a Romney-Paul finish in New Hampshire is ARG which has Romney at 40, Huntsman at 17, Dr. Paul at 16, Santorum 12, Eft 8, and Perry 1. That’s such an outliar that neither RCP nor 538 use it in their averages.
The WMUR/UNH poll (I trust Andy Smith) has Romney at 41 with Dr. Paul at 17, Huntsman and Santorum at 11, Eft 8, and Perry 1.
We should also look at the Suffolk/7 News Tracking Poll since they are updating their numbers each day. On Monday, they had Romney at 3 (down from 33 a week ago), Dr. Paul 20, Huntsman 13, Eft 11, and Santorum 10 (Perry 1 of course).
It’s so bad for the Pennsylvanian that he’s already left the Granite State for points south.
I for one will be happy when this entire media brigade packs up for the Palmetto State…I for one am sick of these media games of making a lopsided race appear close.
With the caveat that I was wrong in Iowa, I’ll go with 40-20-13-12-11-2 for my prediction here. That would be Romney, Dr. Paul, Huntsman, Santorum and Eft, and Perry. Note that I leave 2 percent for other…hey maybe Fred Karger will surge. When I left the Manchester Library Saturday afternoon, I ran into a Karger/Gay Pride/Occupy parade…some type of parade; I’m not quite sure what.
Gallup nationwide has Romney up 12 today. It’s Romney 30, Santorum 18, Eft 17, Dr. Paul 13, and Perry 6.
The RCP average has Romney up 9, 26.3 with Santorum at 17.3, Eft 16.0, Dr. Paul 11.8, Perry 5.5, and Huntsman 2.8.
Put a fork in this nomination; it’s done. The only question is whether Dr. Paul will re-elect Barack Obama by running as a third party candidate. My guess is not.
Rand Paul for President in 2020.
Even as the Eft continues to spread the canard that he is far more electable than Romney, let’s pause for a reality check.
Rasmussen’s latest polling has the Eft losing to Obama by 10 (49-39). In a poll just out today, Rasmussen has Santorum losing to Obama by seven (46-39). Romney ties Obama at 42-42 (a tie most likely goes to the challenger), and a generic Republican beating Obama by four (47-43).
So much for Eftian lies!
Rasmussen has Republicans back to a six point lead in the generic Congressional ballot, 44-38.
After getting even ever so briefly last week, Obama has slipped again to negative 1.2 in the RCP averages (47.0-48.2). Gallup has him down only one (46-47), but Rasmussen has the gap widening back to 11 (44-55). I suspect it’ll be at negative five or six in a few weeks.