Now that most southern states have voted, expect pollsters to get it right on Republican presidential primaries.
That’s good news indeed for Mitt Romney who has moved to an average ten point lead in Wisconsin and even more than that in Maryland and D.C. for next week. In fact, as I’ve been saying for months, Romney has the nomination all wrapped up. Polls in New York, California and other delegate-rich states affirm that. Santorum is only two points ahead in his native Pennsylvania (he now lives inside the beltway) in the latest Franklin and Marshal poll (30-28 with Paul at 9 and the Eft—make that the Zombie—at 6).
Rasmussen has Romney up ten in Wisconsin (44-34). NBC News/Marist has it down to seven (40-33), but fivethirtyeight lists the margin at 45.4-36.0.
Rasmussen has Romney up 17 in Maryland (45-28 with Eft at 12 and Dr. Paul 7). Santorum isn’t even on the ballot in D.C.
PPP has a 30-30 tie in North Carolina which one would think Santorum should win since he captured most of the South. Santorum is also up 14 points in Nebraska (39-25), but there aren’t many delegates there.
An LA Times poll has Romney up 19 points (42-23) in California. Quinnipiac has him up 23 points (42-19) in Connecticut. SurveyUSA has him up seven points (38-31) in Oregon, and while there’s no recent data out of New York, he was up more than 20 there last time I checked and likely to win almost all the state’s delegates.
Meanwhile, Romney and Santorum will most likely split the delegates in Texas. Give Santorum the edge in Arkansas, Kentucky, and West Virginia, but Romney will have this wrapped up long before he takes all of Utah’s 40 delegates in June.
The picture of how he’ll do against Obama is less clear. Rasmussen has Obama up one point today (46-45). Obama’s favorability hovers around even. Rasmussen has him down four points today (48-52) and Gallup down three (44-47). Overall, Obama is up less than a point in the Real Clear Politics average, 47.7-47.0.
Republicans are moving to clear leads in the Congressional generic ballot, and it’s not just Rasmussen which has the GOP up five (43-38). McClatchy/Marist has Republicans up four (46-43), and Bloomberg up two (46-44).
Bad news for Republicans in New Hampshire comes from American Research Group which has Obama beating Romney by seven points here (48-41) and Santorum by 11 (48-37). It was the other way around a few months ago. ARG also has Obama up 48-46 in approval here, a total turnaround from two months ago. His handling of the econony is still viewed unfavorabley 44-50 in NH, but not nearly as bad as earlier. We await numbers from UNH, but should current data hold, I’ll have to update my predictions on Republicans holding the New Hampshire House and Senate and maybe even governorship. As always, top of the ticket matters!
U.S. Senate polling is all over the map. Quinnipiac has incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown up ten (46-36) in Ohio, but Rasmussen has Brown tied with Republican Mandel at 43-43, a state Democrats were not expected to lose. Rasmussen has Republican Tommy Thompson four points up in Wisconsin (48-44) at the same time Obama leads Romney by double digits in that state. Quinnipiac has incumbent Democrat Nelson up eight in Florida over Connie Mack (44-36), but Rasmussen has it even. Go figure.
There’s a most interesting development in Connecticut where Joe Lieberman is stepping down. Democrat Murphy leads Republican wrestling maven Linda McMahon by 15 (52-27), but leads former Republican Congressman Shays by only one point (41-40). The problem for Republicans is that McMahon will most likely win the primary (she leads Shays by ten). Too bad! Shays is a good man.
Godless New Hampshire—Gallup is out with a poll showing New Hampshire tied with Vermont for the least religious state in the country. Only 23 percent here say they’re very religious. Mississippi leads with 59 percent and other than Utah (57 percent), all the religious states are in the South—Alabama 56, Louisiana and Arkansas 54, Tennessee 52, North Carolina 50, Georgia 48. No wonder Santorum did so well there.
Not surprisingly, the least religious are in the Northeast or Northwest. After New Hampshire and Vermont come Maine 25, Massachusetts 28, Connecticut 31, New York and Rhode Island 32. Alaska is at 28, Oregon, Washington, and Nevada (most be those transplanted gambling sinners) at 30.
All indications this week point to the Supreme Court striking down at least parts of Obamacare. Rasmussen finds Americans want it struck down by a 50-37 percent margin, but believe it will be struck down b a 54-26 percent margin. The liberal Huffington Post has opposition on average running five points ahead of support.