Rep Steve Vaillancourt


In Praise of Dr. Paul--Eft Is The Indecent One



Even as he speaks out of one side of his mouth claiming he's running a positive campaign, Newt Gingrich (hereafter known simply as The Eft) unleashes a heap of vitriol not only attacking Ron Paul but claiming that millions of people who support Dr. Paul, as I most certainly do, are indecent.

You just can't make this stuff up.

Here's the exact quote.  "I think Ron Pau's views are totally outside the mainstream of virtually every decent American."

I for one share Ron Paul's views on virtually every subject, and for The Eft to suggest that I'm indecent is certainly among the most negative comments I've heard in 60 years of following American elections on this planent (all right, let's make it 52 years; I didn't start until I was eight years old--Nixon v. Kennedy as a fourth grader in 1960).

If anyone is indecent, it's The Eft.

If anyones's views are indecent, they are The Eft's views.

Ron Paul believes in less government intrustion in our lives, the most decent philosophy one could embrace.

Ron Paul believes in following Constitiutional priniciples.

Ron Paul believes in reining in spending, not continuing outlandish programs (such as those supported by The Eft) which are most assuredly bankrupt this country.

Ron Paul is no isolationist, a canard postulated by frantic opponents who can't attack Dr. Paul on real issue.  Ron Paul, as I do, believes that America cannot be the policieman of the world, that the age of American imperialism is over, that we can no longer afford to spend billions defending nations far richer than we are, that we must defend ourselves rather than attacking others.

These are all decent pricniples as opposed to the indecency that The Eft embodies in both his personal and public life.

As Dr. Paul comes under attack these final days before Iowa and New Hampshire, don't believe that'she's anti-gay, anti-black, anti-semitic or anti-anything.

Just a few months ago, I recall listening on the radio when Dr. Paul was asked if there is anything that Obama has done that he supports.  As he paused for dramatic effect, I began yelling at the radio, "Geting rid of don't ask, don't tell."

Seconds later, Ron Paul stated that getting rid of don't ask, don't tell was something Obama did which he supports.

So much for Dr. Paul being anti-gay.  As a libertarian, Dr. Paul cherishes the value of each individual.  Every human being should be free to suceed (or fail) on his or her own merits.  Dr. Paul is not anti-anything. 

The Eft and those in the media from the vile liar Dick Morris to Charles The Wise should need to all take a deep breath and realize, as millions of decent Americans have done, that Ron Paul is perhaps the only salvation for this county.



Inside Republican Poll Shows Strong Support For Gay Marriage

            In what just might be the death knell for those who want to repeal gay marriage in New Hampshire, word has leaked that an internal Republican poll, conducted by George Bush’s polling outfit in Houston, Texas, verifies what other surveys have been saying—support for keeping the law is very strong, so much so that New Hampshire voters consider it a “settled” or “older” issue.

            According to Voter Consumer Research (VCR), which surveyed 712 likely NH voters, “64 percent believe the law allowing gay couples to marry in New Hampshire should stay in place.  Only 31 percent believe the law should be repealed.

            Not only that, but 51 percent feel strongly that the law should stay in place.       

            It’s not as if people haven’t been following the issue.  VCR finds very high awareness (“fairly universal”) of 94 percent.

            Even among likely Republican primary voters, support for leaving the law is at 47 percent (47 percent also favor repeal).  Not only that but VCR found gay marriage is not a major voting issue even among Republicans.  When asked how they would react if their state legislator voted against repeal, 60 percent said they would either support that legislator or the issue “would make no difference in their vote”.

            While not yet released to the public, this survey has been made available to Republican insiders who must devise a strategy of how to deal with HB437, the gay marriage repeal which came out of the Judiciary Committee with an ought to pass recommendation and is due on the House floor in mid-January.

            Proponents of gay marriage, never alarmed since they knew Governor John Lynch’s veto of the repeal would most certainly be sustained, can now take heart that they can stop this troglodytic (my word) measure before it gets to his desk.

            Not surprisingly, support for leaving the law in place is strongest in Southwest New Hampshire (the Keene area).  Even in Hillsborough County, support only falls off to 62 percent.

            “In each region,” VCR reports, “we see intense support for leaving the law untouched with a plurality or majority of voters saying they feel strongly that the law should be left in place.”

              The poll summary warns Republican insiders that those in risk of not being re-elected are ones who do not appear to be focused on more important issues (fiscal and economic matters) or those "voting for repeal of a law that the majority of voters support leaving on the books as is".  This would be espcially true of Republican incumbents who would need Independent or Democratic support for re-election, that is to say those in swing districts (like Manchester, Nashua, and Rochester for example).

             The poll, which includes a wide range of other issues, was conducted December 11-15.  The margin of error is 3.7 percent.


The Reading Room--The President And The Assassin

 The President and the Assassin: McKinley, Terror, and Empire at the Dawn of the American Century


You know it's a great book when I, a slow reader, get through 350 pages on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.  After reading the story of Garfield's assassination, his lingering death after being shot in a Washington DC train station in 1881, I decided the McKinley assassination deserves equal time.  I grabbed it from the Manchester library (I later found one single copy at Barnes and Nobles) and literally couldn't put it down over the holidays.

This book serves as a great defense of Dr. Ron Paul's philosophy that adventuring all over the world is neither good nor wise for the United States.

The rise of the American empire in the Pacific, a sad story indeed, is related by Scott Miller who juxtaposes President William McKinley's folly with the life of anarchist Leon Czolgosz (aka Fred Nieman).

Of course, the lives intersect in September, 1901 when Czolgosz shoots McKinley down at the Pan-American Exposition in Buffalo, New York.  Like Garfield, McKinley's doctors probably contributed as much to his death as Czolgosz, but he hangs on for less than two weeks, and two months later, the anarchist has been tried, convicted, and electrocuted.

As exciting as this book is in contrasting the wealth of the Gilded Age with working conditions for the poor, it is even better at tracing the roots of American imperialism from McKinley affirming during his 1897 inauguration that "we want no wars of conquest" to...well to...wars of conquest.

We all probably know the story of how publishers Hearst and Pulitzer orchestrated the war with Spain over Cuba to drive newspaper circulation up, but the real eye opener in this book is how McKinley, who had to be dragged into that Caribbean gambit, lustfully sent native Vermonter George Dewey off to the Philippines to open markets for America's excess production.

No, you just can't make this stuff up.

It's sad but true, a cautionary tale as important today as it was for the past 100 years.

When I wasn't thinking about how sad American imperialism was and is, I was thinking how sad the Occupy Wall Street Movement is.  Labor dissent in the late 19th century had a point; it wasn't just a bunch of pampered whiners.  Here's how Miller describes the Carnegie Steel Plant outside Pittsburgh.

"Hundreds of smokestacks at Homestead and other nearby factories belched so much filth into the sky that the sun rarely penetrated what was a nearly permanent yellow haze hanging in the trees.  In the meager town, as squalid as could well be imagined, which sprawled out up the hill from the factory gates, there were no paved streets nor a sewage system; most of the town's eleven thousand residents had to relive themselves at outdoor privies."

This was the age of robber barons when men, women and children worked 12 hour days in terrible conditions and returned to hovels at night.  Meanwhile, millionaire homes were gracing Fifth Avenue in New York to the point where, according to Miller, Frenchman Georges Clemenceau commented that the United States had gone from a stage of barbarism to one of decadence without achieving any civilization in between the two.

French snobbism to be sure, but there's certainly enough truth in that statement to give Miller's readers pause.

This book succeeds on so many levels, a rich cast of characters, both anarchists and imperialists (including TR of course); the tragic story of a very nice man (McKinley) being dragged into an ugly exploitation; and of course, the murder story.

Never have 350 pages passed so quickly.

I'm elevating this book to a tie for number one for 2011 along with In The Garden of Beasts which came out earlier and spent many weeks atop the New York Times Best Sellers list.

The President and The Assassin (McKinley, Terror, and Empire at the Dawn of the American Century) is arguably a much more important contribution that the look inside Hitler's Berlin albeit not as successful (at least not yet).


The Week In Polls--Dec. 27--Dick Morris Is A Liar!

WASHINGTON, DC - JUNE 03:  Political strategist Dick Morris addresses the Faith and Freedom Coalition June 3, 2011 in Washington, DC. The Faith and Freedom Coalition is holding their second annual conference and strategy briefing over two days in the nation's capital. 

Perfect pose for Dick The Foot Fetishist Morris.  Open mouth, insert foot!  Don't believe anything Dick Morris says.  He's proven himself to be the consummate liar.


   Don’t believe anything Dick The Hack Morris says.

            Dick Morris, based on what he said Monday night on Fox, is either ignorant or an out and out liar, and since not even his biggest detractors would call him ignorant, we are left with the only other option.

            The man plays fast and loose with the truth.

            The man makes it up as a he goes along.

            The man is a liar and a fraud.

            When Morris said that Ron Paul runs worse against Obama than any other Republican candidate, I knew he was wrong because I’d just finished looking at the Real Clear Politics average, so Dick Morris can’t dupe me, but he obviously believes he can get away with lies to some of the people all of the time or all of the people some of the time.

            In point of fact, only Mitt Romney does better than Dr. Paul against Obama.

            Since it’s a slow news week in polls due to Christmas, allow me to expose the vile lies from Dick Morris.

            Here are the RCP averages:

            Romney loses by 2.5 points to Obama, 47.1—44.6.

            Dr. Paul loses by 7.7 points, 48.2-40.5, and Dr. Paul draws better than other Republicans (except Romney) among independents and Democrats. 

            John Huntsman is third best.  He loses to Obama by 8.6 points, 46.3-37.7 percent.

            Then comes The Eft, apparently beloved by Morris.  Eft loses by 9.0 points, 50.3-41.3, but wait.  It’ll actually be slightly worse than that we the averages are recalibrated because Rasmussen is just out with a poll today showing Obama beating the Eft by 10 points, 47-37.

            As for the other Republican candidates, those whom Dick Morris claims do better than Dr. Paul against Obama, it’s simply not true.

            While there’s no average for Santorum, he’s down by 10, 11, and 14 points on the RCP site.

            Perry loses to Obama by 12.5 points, 51.2-38.7 percent.

            Michelle Bachmann loses by 15.0 points, 52.3-37.3 percent.

            I live by this rule.  Trust people until they give me a reason not to, and then never trust that person again.           

            Dick Morris is never to be trusted again.  He’s worse than slipshod; he’s dishonest, but then most people figured that out long ago.


            It’s been a good week for Barack Obama in the polls.  He was briefly above water with Gallup, up 47-45 yesterday although he’s slipped back to 46-48 today.  Rasmussen has him down 47-52.  Obama was within a point of even in the RCP averages Monday, but he’s slipped to minus 1.7 points today, 47.0-48.7.

            American Research Group has Dr. Paul ahead of Romney by one and Gingrich by two in Iowa (21-20-19) with Perry at 9, Bachmann 8, Huntsman 6, and Santorum 4, but the Iowa averages have the Eft slipping even farther behind.

            It’s Dr. Paul 22.3, Romney 21.0, Eft 14.7, Perry 12.0, Bachmann 8.7, Santorum 7.7, and Huntsman 4.0.

            In New Hampshire, the Boston Globe poll confirms what I predicted here last week, that Romney would win by a two to one margin over the second place finisher (something in the 40-20 range).  The Globe has Romney at 39 with Dr. Paul and the Eft at 17, Huntsman at 11, and only 3 for Santorum, 2 for Bachmann and 1 for Perry (must be the Deputy Speaker and Rep. Silva).

            The New Hampshire average is Romney 35.7, Eft 18.7, Dr. Paul 18.0 (and closing the gap in more recent polling), Huntsman 11.3, Bachmann 3.3, Santorum 3.0, and Perry 2.0.

            Gallup’s nationwide tracking poll Tuesday had the Eft’s lead all but gone, 25-24 over Romney with Dr. Paul at 11, Perry 8, Bachmann 6, Santorum 3, and Huntsman 2.

            I spoke with a Santorum supporter who claimed his man would hit 20 percent in Iowa.  I doubt it.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Perry catches the Eft for third in the caucuses.

            Rasmussen has Republicans holding to a three point lead (43-40) in the all important generic Congressional ballot.

            There’s one bit of good news on the Senate front for Democrats this week.  The Las Vega Review/Journal has challenger Berkley one point up (44-43) over Senator Heller who replaced the disgraced John Ensign earlier this year.

            Vice President Marco Rubio would certainly turn that around in the Hispanic-laden state of Nevada, but Rubio once again last week insisted he will not accept the VP slot.  That’s what he told O’Reilly.  Does anyone actually believe him? 

            This isn’t exactly polling, but Nate Silver of (New York Times numbers crunchers) reports that after being down as low as 42 percent on the Intrade betting market on December 13, Mitt Romney’s chances of securing the GOP nomination had shot back up to 72 percent yesterday.

            Of John Huntsman, Silver writes, “His polling has improved in New Hampshire but he’d look a lot more dangerous if he were polling at 21 percent rather than 12 percent.”

            As for Romney, Silver writes, “If expectations get too far ahead of themselves, Mr. Romney might be only one Howard Dean scream or Ed Muskie teardrop from becoming genuinely vulnerable.  Mr. Romney would be wise to ensure that he keeps them in check.”

            Who knows?  Romney might even get more than everyone else combined, that is to say, he might get to 50 percent here in New Hampshire.

            How’s that for his fan of Dr. Paul driving Mitt’s expectations up?  After all, this is Mitt’s second home and he has DJ (albeit not the bishop) firmly on board.

            Long Live Lady Liberty!

            Long Live Ron Paul!


12 For 2012--Predictions--Interactive Version

            12 predictions for 2012 will be revealed in this space later this week, but for now, let’s make this an interactive experience.  By answering these questions, you can play along.  Feel free to create your own predictions and see how they match up with mine (they’ll be posted no later than Friday, in plenty of time for ringing in the new year).  These are noted in chronological order beginning with the Iowa caucuses next week and ending with the election for New Hampshire Speaker next December.

1.   A—Which Republican will win the Iowa caucuses on January 3 and by how much?

      B—Which Republican will win the New Hampshire primary on January 10 and by how much?

2.  Will gay marriage be repealed by the New Hampshire legislature?

3.  Will the New Hampshire legislature vote to expand gambling with some form of racinos, casinos, or slot parlors?

4.  A—What will the national unemployment rate be at the time of the November election?

     B—What will the growth rate be at the time of the November election?

5.  Who will replace John Lynch as New Hampshire governor?

6.  With a 63 seat gain in 2010, Republicans took control of the United States House of Representatives by a 242-193 margin.  How many seats will Republicans gain or lose in November?

7.  Regarding New Hampshire Congressmen Frank Guinta and Charlie Bass, which one, both, or neither will be re-elected in November?  By approximately what margin?

8.  After the 2010 election, Democrats controlled the United States Senate 53-47 (including independents Lieberman and Sanders).  Keep in mind that Democrats must defend 23 of the 33 seats in play in 2012 and that seven Democratic incumbents, including Nebraska's Ben Nelson announced Tuesday, are retiring.  How many seats will Republicans gain or lose in November?

9.  After the 2010 election, Republicans controlled the New Hampshire House 298-102.  How many seats will Republicans gain or lose in November?

10.  After the 2010 election, Republicans controlled the New Hampshire Senate 19-5.  How many seats will Republicans gain or lose in November?

11.  Who will win the Presidency and by approximately what percentage of the popular vote and with how many electoral votes?   (Remember 270 electoral votes are needed to win).  If you want to play with individual states, there’s an interactive map at the web site.  Check it out; it’s been recalibrated to reflect the change in electoral votes due to new census numbers.  See below.

12.  When newly elected New Hampshire State Representatives meet on organization day in December, who will be elected Speaker?

BONUS--This has been far too easy thus far.  It’s time to go out on a limb with a long-shot prediction.  The sky is the limit here.  I personally plan to opt for a particular piece of legislation which will pass in the New Hampshire House.  Make sure you hurry—a hint—here Friday for the answer.

The totals for the Republican and the Democrat are automatically recalculated as the candidates are selected. The calculator can be returned to the 2008 results by clicking the reset button.

AL (9) RepDem   ME (2) RepDem   NC (15) RepDem
AK (3) RepDem   -CD1 (1) RepDem ND (3) RepDem
AZ (11) RepDem   -CD2 (1) RepDem OH (18) RepDem
AR (6) RepDem MD (10) RepDem OK (7) RepDem
CA (55) RepDem MA (11) RepDem OR (7) RepDem
CO (9) RepDem MI (16) RepDem PA (20) RepDem
CT (7) RepDem MN (10) RepDem RI (4) RepDem
DE (3) RepDem MS (6) RepDem SC (9) RepDem
DC (3) RepDem MO (10) RepDem SD (3) RepDem
FL (29) RepDem MT (3) RepDem TN (11) RepDem
GA (16) RepDem NE (2) RepDem TX (38) RepDem
HI (4) RepDem   -CD1 (1) RepDem UT (6) RepDem
ID (4) RepDem   -CD2 (1) RepDem VT (3) RepDem
IL (20) RepDem   -CD3 (1) RepDem VA (13) RepDem
IN (11) RepDem NV (6) RepDem WA (12) RepDem
IA (6) RepDem NH (4) RepDem WV (5) RepDem
KS (6) RepDem NJ (14) RepDem WI (10) RepDem
KY (8) RepDem NM (5) RepDem WY (3) RepDem
LA (8) RepDem NY (29) RepDem











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