Despite unparalleled concerted efforts by the lame stream media to smear Herman Cain with unfounded rumors about sexual advances, he remains 1.9 points ahead of Mitt Romney in the Real Clear Politics nationwide average for the Republican nomination, and Cain is leading in several individual states in Quinnipiac polls just released today.
Yes, this is of course the same drive by media which chose to ignore a mountain of evidence against John Edwards, the one time Democrat nominee for Vice President, and continued to ignore the story even after that stalwart of journalism, the National Enquirer, scooped the so-called legitimate media. Even after Edwards was indicted, the lame stream media basically ignores the Edwards story.
However, this blog is not for me to vent on this injustice being done to an honorable man but rather to simply report polling results.
Pew Research finds 29 percent of Republicans believe the allegations against Cain are true, 39 percent false. In a crowded field, 29-39 is a good split.
Although Cain has slipped in Gallup’s intensity index (from 34 to 25), he still leads all Republicans in that arcane poll. He’s slipped only six points (from 79 to 73) in Gallup’s overall favorability rating, and Cain’s lead actually seems to be expanding in the RCP average. It’s Cain 25.2, Romney 23.3, Gingrich (having breezed past the hapless Perry as predicted here last week) at 12.2, Perry falling faster all the time at 10.2, Ron Paul at 8.3, Bachmann 3.3, Santorum 1.7, and Huntsman 1.0.
Most of the polls which make up that average are out long after the phony story broke about a woman somehow thinking that it’s harassment to be told she’s the same height as Herman Cain’s wife.
I know, I know, I’m supposed to be relating polls rather than entering into a long overdue rant.
In Ohio, Quinnipiac has Cain leading Romney 25-20 with Gingrich at 11, Paul 9, Perry and Bachmann at 4. (Let’s shorten things by not going into numbers for all the others).
In Florida, Quinnipiac has Cain leading Romney 27-21 with Gingrich at 11 and Paul at 9. Lest you think that’s just one poll, Rasmussen has Cain leading Romney 30-24 in Florida with Gingrich at 19.
In Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac has Cain and Romney tied at 17 with Gingrich and Santorum (it is after all his home state) at 13, Perry and Paul at 5.
A Clemson poll has Romney ahead of Cain by two in South Carolina 22-20 with Gingrich at 10, and Perry 9.
Tuesday, PPP (admittedly a Democratic outfit) had Cain leading Romney 34-19 in Ohio, but Gingrich was actually in second with 19.
PPP actually has Gingrich ahead of Cain 28-25 in Mississippi with Perry at 14 and Romney way down at 12.
There’s more but that should be enough to paint a vivid picture that Herman Cain is far from dead (contrary to the assessment by the purveyor of this web site a week ago). In fact, my theory is that Herman Cain will survive this unwarranted assault and that if fact it will serve as an inoculation—like a flu shot if you will—making him all the stronger in the long run.
However, again I digress into commentary in a blog that is supposed to be simply factual.
Clearly, while Cain continues to lead the Republican field, it is Romney who fares better in head to head match-ups against Obama. In the Quinnipiac poll out today, for example, Romney is either ahead or within striking distance in three critical states which Obama carried in 2008. Romney leads 45-42 in Florida and trails Obama only 45-42 in Ohio and is even within a point in Pennsylvania (44-43). A loss there would probably prove fatal for Obama, and as Dick Morris has pointed out, it’s vital to look not at how much Obama leads by in these states, but how much below 50 he is. Quite a bit as it turns out.
Meanwhile, Cain trails Obama by four in Florida (45-41) and by 10 in to both Ohio and Pennsylvania (48-38 both places), and Perry trails by even more, six in Florida (46-40), 12 in Ohio (48-36), and nine in Pennsylvania (47-38).
Thus, while Cain remains in the GOP field, Romney appears to be the GOP’s best hope to beat Obama. (As always, truth in blogging—I’m a big Ron Paul fan).
Obama continues to run very badly against a generic Republican. Rasmussen has him down six in Florida and only up four (45-41) in highly Democratic California. Nationwide, Rasmussen has a generic Republican beating Obama by a four points (46-42), but he has Perry losing by nine (44-35), Cain losing by 11 (48-37), and Gingrich losing by six (44-38). Romney is virtually tied with Obama.
Today’s RCP average has Obama at negative 5.5 (44.9-51.4), better than in some recent weeks but slightly down from last week. Gallup has Obama only down five (42-47), and Rasmussen has him down eight (45-53).
Rasmussen has the first indication that Democrat Senator Clair McCaskill is in trouble in Missouri (I predicted she would lose back on Labor Day). Republican State Treasurer Sarah Steelman leads 47-45; Obama will probably be a real drag on McCaskill come November, 2012.
Rasmussen has Republicans back to a seven point lead (44-37) in this week’s generic Congressional ballot; that would translate as very little change in the Congressional make-up.
Zogby has support for Obama’s plan to withdraw troops from Iraq by the end of the year at 57 percent (only 31 percent disagree). Put me firmly in the 57 percent category. Let’s get all our troops home now from everywhere.
Whoops. We’re getting into opinions again. Better end with just the numbers.