Less than a day after former Maine Governor, Independent Angus King, announced that he would enter the race for Olympia Snowe’s U.S. Senate seat; PPP has released a poll showing him with a five point lead over Democrat Congressman Chellie Pingree and eight points over Republican Secretary of State Charles Summers (36, 31, and 28).
The deadline for filing petition signatures in Maine is March 15, and there’s no guarantee that Pingree or Summers will be the nominees of the two major parties, but King’s announcement clearly throws a monkey wrench into Maine politics.
A social liberal and friend of Pingree, King’s entry may in fact end up tilting this seat back in favor of Republicans.
Meanwhile, a Rasmussen poll out of Nebraska is about the worst possible news Democrats could expect. After coaxing former Senator Bob Kerrey away from the Big Apple to run for Ben Nelson’s vacant Senate seat, Democrats find that Kerrey trails Bruning, the Republican favorite to capture the seat, by not just a few points…no, not even by simply double digits, but by no less than 22 points (55-33).
It’s almost enough to drive a Kerrey back to the Apple.
Obama is right about even with RCP’s composite favorability ranking this week, up 0.7 points at 48.3-47.6, but he’s down three with both Rasmussen (48-51) and Gallup (45-48), and Obama manages to be in favorable territory only due to a highly suspect NBC/Wall Street Journal poll which shows him up five (50-45).
A fourth poll out of Massachusetts shows Republican Senator Scott Brown substantially ahead of Elizabeth Warren (8 points, 49-41, Western NE University poll).
With many pundits close to saying that Mitt Romney could all but wrap up the Republican Presidential nomination with a good showing this Super Tuesday (I agree), it might be more fun tonight to grade the pollsters than to watch Romney’s delegates pile up.
Here’s a three-state guide for those who want to play along.
There are so many polls out of Ohio, let’s go there first. ARG has Romney up by the greatest margin, seven points (35-28), but that’s just the tip of a solid iceberg of polling data. All these numbers compare Romney with Santorum.
Quinnipiac—Romney up 3, 34-31
PPP—Romney up 1, 37-36
WeAsk America—Romney up 4, 32-28 (with Gingrich way up at 24 and Ron
Paul at 16)???
Merriman—Romney up 5, 38-33
Rasmussen—Santorum up 1, 32-31
Suffolk—Santorum up 4, 37-33
NBC/Marist—Santorum up 2, 34-32
I’ll guess Quinnipiac is closest.
Nearly all polls out of Georgia show The Eft up by 20 or so (ARG has The Eft at 44 with Romney at 24 and Santorum at 19, one point shy of the amount necessary to collect delegates!), but Rasmussen has it at only 10—Gingrich (whoops—I mean The Eft) 37, Romney 27, Santorum 18, Paul 10.
Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com is projecting these delegate totals for the night: Romney 224, Eft 87 (mostly in Georgia and Tennessee), Santorum 76, Ron Paul 25.
PPP has Santorum up five (34, 29 for Romney and 28 for Gingrich) in Tennessee, but WeAskAmerica has Romney up 1 with 30 to 29 for both Santorum and The Eft.
With all the talk about Ohio, Tennessee might in fact be the most fun state to watch around midnight tonight.
Gallup has Romney up 10 over Santorum (34-24) in the latest national poll.
Rasmussen has Republicans back up to plus three in the generic Congressional ballot, 44-41. That sounds about right to me and should translate into Republicans losing only a handful of seats in Congress.