Rep Steve Vaillancourt



Friday
Dec092011

Sneak Preview Of 2012 Predictions--248 And 16

12 for 2012 will be the title of this year’s foray into the prediction business.  I’ll post it the first week of the New Year (and go through the details on the edition of More Politically Alert which will air live on Manchestertv23 Wednesday, January 4 at 9 p.m.—rebroadcast Thursday at 9, Sunday at noon, and Tuesday at 11 p.m.).

As I’ve noted in the past, those in the prediction business ought to be held responsible, so I’ll also review how my 11 for 2011 worked out.

I did pretty well actually, coming up just short on that right to work prediction (and Haley Barbour as a serious candidate), but nailing nearly everything else.

Perhaps a sneak preview is in order today since I saw UNH pollster Andy Smith, whom I respect greatly, commenting in a Portsmouth Herald article that Democrats will make substantial gains in the New Hampshire House (moving from 102 to something in the 160-180 range) and Senate (moving from five now to nine to eleven).

I tend to agree with Andy although, basically because of redistricting, I’m slightly less bullish on Democratic chances.

For example, were the current Senate seats to remain in place, I could see Democrats picking up the four to six seats Andy predicts.  However, when the Senate releases its redistricting plan, I suspect we’ll see how it will be much more difficult for Democrats to make inroads.  As of now, I’m going with a Democratic pick-up of three seats to get them up to eight, stilling trailing by a vetoproof margin of 16-8.  The four seats most in danger for Republicans are obviously Luther and Lambert in the Nashua area and Styles and Prescott in the Seacoast area, but I can see D’Allesandro being redistricted out of his seat in Manchester (combining the West side with Bedford would accomplish that end).

On the House side, although redistricting games are generally not possible, Democrats will potentially lose ten seats when the process concludes.  After all, cities overall are losing seven seats, and cities are where Democrats are traditionally strongest.  Also, by going from at large voting to election by wards in Portsmouth and Keene, Republicans conceivably could pick off a seat or two.

I’ll go with a 50 seat Republican loss to bring to numbers down to 248-152 with the GOP still in control but far short of a vetoproof margin and putting the Speakership very much in doubt (in fact, I suspect one of the 12 for 12 will be Gene Chandler as the new Speaker).

My work is always based on top of the ticket analysis.  As of now, I expect Mitt Romney will carry New Hampshire by five to ten points at the top.  If the Eft should win the GOP nomination, all bets are off.  Republican losses will be much greater.

Similarly, if Democrats nominate a left wing loonie income taxer for governor, someone in the Mark Fernald tradition, all bets are off.  Their gains will be minimal.  As of now, I expect Ted Gatsas will be elected governor by a dozen or so points.

            I’ll take another look at everything when I head off to ring in the New Year and may write the official blog from the Grand Bibliotehque at Berri-UQAM in Montreal…or maybe from the Bixby Library in Vergennes, Vermont (the smallest little city in the USA).

            President Romney, Governor Gatsas, Speaker Chandler, 248 and 16 (and of course, gay marriage repeal fails again)--sounds like I'm halfway home on 12 for 12.

Wednesday
Dec072011

House Redistricting Plan Is Ready

In a letter to New Hampshire House Republican members, Rep. Paul Mirski, Chair of the Special Committee on Redistricting, announced Wednesday afternoon that the plan for 400 House members, presumably within a ten percent deviation and not crossing county lines, is ready.

Plans will be presented on a county by county basis to Republicans in caucuses Friday and next Monday.

Rep. Mirski claims that more districts are created than in any plan individually submitted.  That must be more than 184 districts since that's the number my plan called for (including 34 floats).

Someone has emailed me asking about how to get to the spot where submitted plans have been made public.  Go to the State House web site.  Click on special committees, then redistricting committee.  Then click on documents and then onto plans submitted to the committee.  The plan which comes forth is most likely a composite, hopefully the best, of all plans listed there.

No, I have not yet seen the plan which will be presented, but I can guess about what most of it will look like.

Here are parts of the Mirski letter.

 

"Fellow House Republicans,

Thank you for your patience as we have been working through the many logistical and legal issues involved with the redistricting process. Thank you to those of you who submitted and/or presented plans to the Special Committee on Redistricting.

After careful consideration of information we received from public hearings, House member submitted plans and input from legal counsel, we have developed a House redistricting plan that we believe complies fully with federal constitutional requirements and, to the extent possible, the state constitutional requirements. The plan creates more districts than any other proposal submitted.

We’d like to present this plan to you, county by county, in Republican Caucus Friday December 9 and Monday December 12. Due to time constraints we were unable to set these dates out any further beyond Monday as the committee must approve a plan as soon as possible. We apologize for any inconvenience.


The schedule for these Republican Caucus discussions is as follows:

Friday December 9th

11am – Merrimack County
12pm – Coos, Carroll, Grafton
1pm – Hillsborough County
3pm – Rockingham County

LOB 205-207

Monday December 12th

10am – Sullivan and Cheshire Counties
11am – Strafford and Belknap Counties

LOB 205-207

These discussions will be Republican Caucuses. Republican members are encouraged to attend the presentations for their counties....Further information on the plan will not be available until the Special Committee on Redistricting is formally presented with the plan next week. Please monitor the House calendar for future work sessions."



Wednesday
Dec072011

Zandra Flaunts Her Ignorance

Rather than remain silent and hide her ignorance, Zandra Rice Hawkins, Executive Director of the so-called Granite State Progress (inquiring minds want to know--Is George Soros funding this quackery?), chose to out herself with a public display of nonsense Wednesday, charging erroneously, in a press release sent to all 400 New Hampshire State Reps, that Speaker Bill O'Brien broke House rules by voting on HB474, the right to work bill last week.

We've been through this before but apparently Zandra was out to lunch both then and now.

House rules state, "The Speaker shall not be called on to vote unless the vote would be decisive."

In other words, the Speaker must vote when the matter is decisive.  However, the rule does not say a Speaker may not vote, as he or she chooses, on other occasions.

Previous interpretations of the rule have been clear--that a Speaker may vote when he or she decides to vote, yet Zandra, like her employee Daniuk Rollo (see other blog entry), appear intent on sliming Republican leadership even when they wind up sliming themselves.

Zandra...excuse me Ms. Rice Hawkins...uses this misreading of rules to launch into a lengthy diatribe about the Speaker.

One can only wonder which member of the Lame Stream Media will be first to lap up this slop from Zandra...excuse me again Ms. Rice Hawkins.  Certainly someone will...after all, Harrell the Humorless Hack seems to have ridden off into the sunset, fading into the ether where only hapless hacks are heard from again.

Zandra, Harrell, and Daniuk Rollo--what a law firm that would make, but then that would imply work in the dreaded private sector...too much to ask for sure!

OFFER FOR RICHES--By the way, anyone with a photo of Zandra and the Rollo The Rotund and his wife is urged to send it along here for posting.  A bounty of Christmas fudge is promised (batch two was made last night and surpasses batch one in succelence).

Wednesday
Dec072011

REDISTRICTING--Daniuk Rollo In Fantasyland

All plans (including mine), submitted to the Special House Committee on Redistricting, have been posted on the special House web site and are available for anyone to see.  Yesterday, Representatives Bowers and Cohn spent more than three hours going over their latest nuances to House plans.  I spent a similar amount of time explaining my ideas the week before Thanksgiving.

Everything has been open and in the public.  In fact, Caitlin (Daniuk) Rollo and others from Granite State Progress have been there nearly every step of the way camera in hand.

However, the average person, tuning into the blueblogbigot site to read Daniuk Rollo's latest rant, would know nothing about what an open process this has been.

Daniuk Rollo rather wastes her time (and presumably that of those left wing zealots enough who would rather read her pablum than get the real facts) with a totally irrelevant diatribe comparing House Speaker Bill O'Brien with former (and disgraced) Massachusetts Speaker Tom "The Felon" Finneran (currently serving a stint not in the big house but as WRKO radio morning man).

You just can't make this stuff up.

Rather than comment on redistricting plans or--better yet--perhaps be part of the solution by coming forward with their own plan, Daniuk Rollo and her paid employer Granite State Progress have chosen to distract an unsuspecting public with unreal charges of intrigue.

The House will come out with its redistricting plan(s) soon.  The deadline of December 23 will be met.

When Chairman Paul Mirski decided to take public hearings into all ten counties, did Daniuk Rollo and Granite State Progress praise the House for its efforts?

Hardly.

They quibbled that not enough was done to publicize the hearings.  A former Democrat Rep in Carroll County even whined that the hearing was scheduled the same night as, of all things, a local Democrat meeting...as if a grant conspiracy existed to deny the Democrats of Carroll County the right to attend the redistricting meeting.

I repeat.  You just can't make this stuff up.  Troublemakers like Daniuk Rollo will never be happy, no matter how far one bends over backwards to assure the process is open and fair.

Since Daniuk Rollo is so intent on defaming others, perhaps she needs to be outed just a bit.

As a Daniuk, this young lady was elected State Rep from Manchester Ward 4 (after losing and breaking down in tears at the polls after her first try--nothing wrong with that).  However, she obviously had very little interest in serving in the $100 a year job.  In fact, she disenfranchised Ward 4 voters by quitting midway through her term because, apparently while at the State House, she discovered she could get a job, presumably paying more than $100 a year, in the gift shop.

Apparently, unable to consdier a job in the dreaded private sector, Daniuk Rollo hooked up with Congressman Carol Shea Porter for a while.

Caitlin A. Daniuk Rollo

Staffer  

Most recent known job:
Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (-NH) (April 13, 2009 - Jan. 2, 2011), Outreach Representative
(NO PHOTO AVAILABLE--She likes filming others, but apparently is shy herself).

 

Then she married Rollinsford Rep Michael The Rotund Rollo (friend of Raybo) who also abandoned his constituent’s midway through his last term to take a high paying job across the aisle with the New Hampshire Senate.

Like wife, like husband, feeding at the public trough knows no bounds.

When last heard of, the husband was forced into the dreaded private sector (almost anyway) as a lobbyist with a health organization (you would certainly have to make up a story about an extremely obese chain smoker working for the American Cancer Society, n'est-ce pas?), and the wife is lobbying for this sham of an organization dedicated to deceiving the public under the rubric of Granite State Progress.

Apparently lying and spreading disinformation is their idea of progress.

For those interested in the facts about redistricting, as I've explained here before, google the New Hampshire House site and follow the links to the special redistricting committee.  There you will find everything from the formula for calculating deviation to court decisions to all plans (none from Daniuk Rollo I hasten to add) which have been submitted to the committee.  Pam and Joel of the House staff have done a tremendous job, not that you'd hear that from Daniuk Rollo or the blueblogbigots.

I had planned to blog today about my three plans for the five executive council districts.  Maps have been scanned in, and you can compare the plans to the current districts.  Even Democrat Rep David Pierce, of Hanover, offered praise for my efforts last week, not that you'd hear that from Daniuk Rollo or the blueblogbigots.  The goal was to provide more compact distracts.  Although there's more of a population shift than we'd like to see (some shift is necessary as District 1 continues to creep southward to maintain a proportional share of the population), perhaps this is the time to make a major change after nothing was done ten years ago.

No decision has yet been reached and rather than weigh in with an opinion, the likes of Daniuk Rollo are too busy comparing Bill O'Brien to Felon Finneran.

Sad but true.

You just can't make this stuff up.

Wednesday
Dec072011

CSpan's "Contender" Series Worth A Long Look

   
     CSpan, long known for its excellence in covering Congressional and Senatorial debates and hearings, wraps up a 14 part series on Presidential Also Rans this Friday night.  It’s called “The Contenders”, and while I’ve missed most of the series, I fully expect it’ll be rebroadcast, and I’m making a note to catch the entire series.

 

            Each two hour show focuses on a man who failed to become President, in some cases on men who failed more than once despite receiving a major party nomination.

            Henry Clay would fit most neatly into that category, and CSpan did the Great Compromiser, warts and all, great credit very early in the series.

            Last Friday, the focus was on George McGovern who had been scheduled to appear in person but apparently had to cancel when he took a spill and injured himself.  Hopefully, he’s getting better.

            In channel surfing, I came upon the McGovern episode and literally couldn’t surf any farther.  Long time columnist Jules Witcover provided excellent commentary.  Although age has slowed down Witcover’s ability to quickly put a though into words, his every thought was worth the wait.

            Of course, I remember the McGovern candidacy (yes, I proudly voted for him--I've never been a big fan of senseless wars).  How could I forget sitting in my Fox Park apartment in Plymouth at 2:30 in the morning that midsummer night when his acceptance speech was delayed due to floor fights at the Democratic convention in Miami.

            CSpan provides us with a look at the inevitability of Nixon’s win (sad, but true), including an exploration of the bum wrap on McGovern as being into Amnesty, Acid, and Abortion (a phrase actually, shockingly, conjured up earlier by the man who would briefly be his running mate, Missouri Senator Thomas Eagleton).

            One does not have to be a history buff to appreciate this CSpan series, but it sure helps.

            In cases like McGovern (a World War II hero, lest we forget), our memory is jogged, pleasantly so.  In cases like Clay, the history is solid, especially since so many new biographies are surfacing these days.

            I’m sad that I missed so much of this great CSpan series.

           Adlai Stevenson must have one of the contenders—Remember that great line from Stevenson who, when told that all intelligent people would vote for him, replied, “But I need a majority.”

           Barry Goldwater certainly was.

           Hubert Humphrey too I imagine.

          The final episode airs this Friday from 8-10 p.m. on CSpan 1.  It seems they are moving in chronological order, so maybe it’ll be Walter Mondale or Al Gore this week.  Nope.  Looks like it'll be Ross Perot.  Here's the entire schedule.

          Watch for the series in reruns.  It’ll be worth the wait.

TV SCHEDULE
September 09
8 PM ET
Henry Clay
from Ashland Estate, Lexington, KY
WATCH
September 16
8 PM ET
James G. Blaine
from Blaine House, Augusta, ME
WATCH
September 23
8 PM ET
William Jennings Bryan
from “Fairview” William Jennings Bryan Home, Lincoln, NE
WATCH
September 30
8 PM ET
Eugene Debs
from Debs Home, Terre Haute, IN
WATCH
October 07
8 PM ET
Charles Evans Hughes
from Supreme Court, Washington, DC
WATCH
October 14
8 PM ET
Al Smith
from State Assembly Chamber, Albany, NY
WATCH
October 21
8 PM ET
Wendell Willkie
from Rushville, IN
WATCH
October 28
8 PM ET
Thomas E. Dewey
from New York
WATCH
November 04
8 PM ET
Adlai Stevenson
from Family Home, Libertyville, IL
WATCH
November 11
8 PM ET
Barry Goldwater
from Goldwater Institute, Phoenix
WATCH
November 18
8 PM ET
Hubert Humphrey
from MN Historical Society, St. Paul, MN
WATCH
November 25
8 PM ET
George Wallace
from Governor's Mansion, Montgomery, AL
WATCH
December 02
8 PM ET
George McGovern
from McGovern Center for Leadership, Mitchell, SD
WATCH
December 09
8 PM ET
Ross Perot
from Washington, DC