12 for 2012 will be the title of this year’s foray into the prediction business. I’ll post it the first week of the New Year (and go through the details on the edition of More Politically Alert which will air live on Manchestertv23 Wednesday, January 4 at 9 p.m.—rebroadcast Thursday at 9, Sunday at noon, and Tuesday at 11 p.m.).
As I’ve noted in the past, those in the prediction business ought to be held responsible, so I’ll also review how my 11 for 2011 worked out.
I did pretty well actually, coming up just short on that right to work prediction (and Haley Barbour as a serious candidate), but nailing nearly everything else.
Perhaps a sneak preview is in order today since I saw UNH pollster Andy Smith, whom I respect greatly, commenting in a Portsmouth Herald article that Democrats will make substantial gains in the New Hampshire House (moving from 102 to something in the 160-180 range) and Senate (moving from five now to nine to eleven).
I tend to agree with Andy although, basically because of redistricting, I’m slightly less bullish on Democratic chances.
For example, were the current Senate seats to remain in place, I could see Democrats picking up the four to six seats Andy predicts. However, when the Senate releases its redistricting plan, I suspect we’ll see how it will be much more difficult for Democrats to make inroads. As of now, I’m going with a Democratic pick-up of three seats to get them up to eight, stilling trailing by a vetoproof margin of 16-8. The four seats most in danger for Republicans are obviously Luther and Lambert in the Nashua area and Styles and Prescott in the Seacoast area, but I can see D’Allesandro being redistricted out of his seat in Manchester (combining the West side with Bedford would accomplish that end).
On the House side, although redistricting games are generally not possible, Democrats will potentially lose ten seats when the process concludes. After all, cities overall are losing seven seats, and cities are where Democrats are traditionally strongest. Also, by going from at large voting to election by wards in Portsmouth and Keene, Republicans conceivably could pick off a seat or two.
I’ll go with a 50 seat Republican loss to bring to numbers down to 248-152 with the GOP still in control but far short of a vetoproof margin and putting the Speakership very much in doubt (in fact, I suspect one of the 12 for 12 will be Gene Chandler as the new Speaker).
My work is always based on top of the ticket analysis. As of now, I expect Mitt Romney will carry New Hampshire by five to ten points at the top. If the Eft should win the GOP nomination, all bets are off. Republican losses will be much greater.
Similarly, if Democrats nominate a left wing loonie income taxer for governor, someone in the Mark Fernald tradition, all bets are off. Their gains will be minimal. As of now, I expect Ted Gatsas will be elected governor by a dozen or so points.
I’ll take another look at everything when I head off to ring in the New Year and may write the official blog from the Grand Bibliotehque at Berri-UQAM in Montreal…or maybe from the Bixby Library in Vergennes, Vermont (the smallest little city in the USA).
President Romney, Governor Gatsas, Speaker Chandler, 248 and 16 (and of course, gay marriage repeal fails again)--sounds like I'm halfway home on 12 for 12.